2057 – Aging Out: Thirty-Seven

[RonCo]

Here’s another edition of the little series I’m doing on older players in the BBA, again, focusing on when they are dropping off rather than what will happen to those they leave behind as they go. I’ve looked at players 38 and up so far, and in general I’d categorize the result as saying that basically from that age up we lose about half the players each year, about 40% can still possibly add value to a team in the right circumstance, and maybe 10% remain impact players.

Those numbers change at age 37, though.

All Total we had 23 players in the league at age 37 this year. That’s a few too many to go through one-by-one, but I’ll do a little grouping and see if that helps shed at least some light on the situation. First, though, here are the players in question:

POS	Name	TM	Age	B	OVR	POT	CON	GAP	POW	EYE	K's	SPE	STE	RUN	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR
LF	Aaron Haney	RMO	37	R	80	80	8	9	9	5	7	8	10	8	672	594	0.295	0.368	0.537	133	5.1
2B	Lineu Aldo	MTL	37	L	80	80	8	11	8	4	8	11	10	11	610	578	0.285	0.315	0.488	122	4
LF	Jeffrey Smith	LOU	37	R	80	80	9	10	8	6	8	5	7	6	731	665	0.304	0.361	0.534	135	4
RF	Stewart Illingworth	-	37	L	65	65	7	7	8	6	7	6	3	3	368	335	0.322	0.375	0.627	168	3.6
RF	Tom Rudge	LV	37	R	75	75	8	8	7	7	7	9	11	11	531	471	0.289	0.364	0.505	130	3.4
C	Roelof Klooster	MEX	37	R	75	75	7	10	6	6	7	1	1	1	465	423	0.284	0.335	0.44	111	2.5
3B	Blaine Tyler	TWC	37	R	65	65	6	8	8	7	5	2	11	11	263	235	0.26	0.335	0.502	122	2.3
C	Jesús Rodríguez	NSH	37	L	75	75	6	8	5	6	6	2	4	6	406	369	0.222	0.283	0.325	66	2
LF	Fernando Moreno	MEX	37	R	65	65	9	9	6	6	9	7	9	9	560	497	0.268	0.345	0.41	107	2
RF	Edward Lake	BOI	37	L	55	55	6	8	7	7	5	8	6	2	526	458	0.242	0.333	0.472	115	2
LF	Felipe Vega	LBC	37	L	70	70	8	8	8	7	8	1	1	1	606	529	0.27	0.356	0.491	125	1.9
CF	Jyri Kulmala	PHX	37	R	50	50	4	5	4	6	6	6	9	11	552	497	0.237	0.31	0.36	80	1.4
SS	Damek Korbel	EDM	37	R	70	70	6	8	6	4	8	4	7	10	231	220	0.286	0.316	0.4	95	1.2
C	Bryan Harris	LV	37	R	50	50	4	6	4	6	5	2	1	1	30	26	0.538	0.567	0.808	262	0.9
CF	Michel Noël	SA	37	R	55	55	6	8	4	2	7	9	11	11	510	489	0.276	0.296	0.366	78	0.8
RF	Alexander Julyan	-	37	R	50	50	5	8	7	6	6	4	8	8	489	447	0.26	0.314	0.463	100	0.7
SS	Ewan Allman	VAN	37	S	55	55	6	7	3	6	6	8	5	3	129	116	0.276	0.328	0.336	92	0.6
CF	José Leyva	CLG	37	R	50	50	6	7	6	3	8	3	2	2	216	204	0.221	0.264	0.333	59	0.1
LF	Todd Rice	SAC	37	L	50	50	7	8	4	3	8	7	10	11	175	167	0.251	0.274	0.341	68	-0.1
3B	Pankratz Isekenmeir	Retired	37	R	40	40	7	7	7	4	7	4	7	9	37	35	0.229	0.27	0.257	43	-0.2
SS	Mauro Soto	TWC	37	R	50	50	5	6	1	3	10	3	10	5	200	191	0.209	0.23	0.251	36	-0.3
C	Bayou Hakki	DM	37	R	50	50	5	9	5	6	7	1	2	1	26	25	0.04	0.077	0.04	-67	-0.5
SS	Luis Peña	TWC	37	R	65	65	5	6	4	7	7	9	10	6	265	250	0.196	0.231	0.26	33	-0.7

See what I mean? It’s a big chunk of players. And unlike the elders we’ve looked at, a quick eyeball says that only about 20% of them are obviously through. Or are they?

Yes, Pankratz Isekenmeir retired, so that one is a done-deal. But guys like Twin Cities’ Auro Soto and Luis Pena (with their combo of age and negative WAR), who would probably be finished in a real baseball environment, could well hang around in this comic book world of our simply because they can still play the field…which seems weird. Apparently defensive ratings don’t age quite as we might think they would. I’ll have to look at that some time. Regardless, Soto has years on his contact left, so that could save him to a degree, too.

Des Moines’ catcher Bayou Hakki is done on paper, too, having posted negative WAR each time he’s been to the Bigs the past five seasons. But the ratings bars are attractive enough to perhaps coax someone out of playing an equally crappy young guy.

We’ll see.

Regardless, moving into the lower middle of the list you see lots of guys who you can look at and say “well, I really don’t want this guy on the team if I can avoid it, but I could hold my nose and have him around awhile if I had to.” San Antonio’s Michel Noel is such an intrigue, right? The guy hasn’t ever really hit, and he’s worse now. Bit a gently + glove in center field could keep him employed for a bit. Vegas Catcher Brian Harris hasn’t been able to hit even AAA pitching for some years, but that 9/8 defense makes him workable for teams that really aren’t ready to compete—especially if they don’t have younger players who can use the reps.

Then you’ve got guys like Ewan Allman and Todd Rice, who can still put up strongish numbers, especially if a team can keep them playing in their platoon roles.

Edging upward a little we can find perhaps the most interesting player on the list: Jyri Kulmala, who has just turned 38, but after a 16 year career in the Phoenix organization, celebrated his THIRD season in the BBA by posting his career best 1.4 WAR. If he can OPS+ at 80 his defense could keep him viable as a platoon CF/defensive replacement on good teams for some time.

Freaky, right?

Bottom line: while I think a lot of these guys are better served in the broadcast booth at this stage, the bottom half of this list is filled with a few interesting guys, and a lot of C/SS/CF who I could see serving roles again in 2057. Time will tell.

And then there’s the upper half of the list, headlined, of course, by the one and only Aaron Haney, who recently got his $60 million walking papers from the Rocky Mountain crew. From Haney down to Felipe Vega, you’ve got eleven players who I expect will be rolling into 2057 under pretty strong expectations. If history repeats, it would appear that around half will have degraded by the end of the year, but this is a “Show Me” league, in the end. Those eleven players created 32 WAR last year. I’d put the over/under at, say, 24 this year?

Assuming, that is, they don’t price themselves out of the game.

Which is a form of retirement, right? An old guy who decides he’s worth more than the market will bear is simply retiring without admitting it. So I suppose that’s a question, too. Stewart Illingsworth, for example, signed an $8 million contract with Mexico City last year, but waited until March to do it. Todd Rice wasn’t signed until late in the season when he would take a minor league deal (which is a weird thing that OOTP does).

So, how much will these players actually impact the game next year?

I don’t know, really. Individual players are moderately easy to point to. I mean, anyone can say Aaron Haney can still play. But as a whole, there are a lot of moving parts still … um .. moving.

[Lane]

I was surprised that Vega opted out of his final year. Even with no setbacks he's going to miss most or all of spring training. Hard to see him getting paid more than he opted out of.

[Rubaboo]

Super sad Illingworth got hurt last season. He's been a great mercenary for a handful of seasons. Always on a reasonable deal for his production as well. Hope he has a couple of seasons left.

[BaseClogger]

This is where the "problem" begins. As you pointed out, way too may guys who play in the middle of the diamond or even great defense in a corner.

[ae37jr]

I botched Soto's contract. Thought he was in his walk year, but he had two options. So what I thought was a one year extension turned into 3. Luckily it's just chump change so he'll just get cut whenever he lumps range.

[Trebro]

Given how 2056 went for many teams re injuries, I think less of these guys will get 26th man contracts. we'll see but that's my gut check thought.

[CTBrewCrew]

Soto still hanging around….time for the GBC baby!

[Bob Breum]

Lineu Aldo's defense just went down to 6 from 8 at second base, so we moved him to first base. He's not your classic slugging first baseman, but he's still got the wheels that led the league in SB last season (36 SB in 39 attempts) and his hitting ratings are largely unchanged. His power dipped by a point, but that's not a major factor in our giant home park. Last season he produced 3.8 WAR, and we'll be happy if he continues to produce at a 3+ WAR rate until his retirement.