Here’s a follow-on to my little look at aging in the BBA. To remind folks, I’m not trying to say what will happen when the aged of our players fall off. Instead, I’m trying to say WHEN it will be happening (or, really, trying to identify the extent to which it is currently underway).
Last time, I looked at the true senior citizens, that being hitters who were at least 40 years old. Today I’ll take a gander at the 39s. We had nine of them in the league this year.
First, let’s do the classic data table, sorted by WAR:
| POS | Name | TM | Age | B | OVR | POT | CON | GAP | POW | EYE | K's | SPE | STE | RUN | PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | David Simpson | TWC | 39 | L | 70 | 70 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 455 | 395 | 0.276 | 0.352 | 0.549 | 139 | 2.5 |
| LF | Kidane Ata | LV | 39 | R | 60 | 60 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 496 | 449 | 0.249 | 0.316 | 0.441 | 100 | 2.1 |
| CF | Jorge Rincón | MTL | 39 | L | 50 | 50 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 316 | 280 | 0.254 | 0.327 | 0.357 | 94 | 2.1 |
| 3B | Dong-po Thum | YS9 | 39 | R | 55 | 55 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 638 | 573 | 0.258 | 0.326 | 0.351 | 86 | 1.8 |
| 1B | Steven Collins III | EDM | 39 | R | 45 | 45 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 500 | 472 | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.396 | 99 | 0.7 |
| RF | Fernando Castillo | LBC | 39 | S | 55 | 55 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 614 | 559 | 0.231 | 0.289 | 0.413 | 86 | 0.5 |
| CF | Dan Flores | EDM | 39 | R | 50 | 50 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 418 | 382 | 0.277 | 0.333 | 0.369 | 92 | 0.5 |
| 2B | Ian Patrick Anderson | PHX | 39 | S | 40 | 40 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 286 | 265 | 0.26 | 0.305 | 0.309 | 66 | 0.2 |
| RF | Dennis French | Retired | 39 | L | 45 | 45 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 22 | 0.136 | 0.208 | 0.227 | 17 | -0.3 |
Ian Patrick Anderson is a weird enough case that I really have to stop there for a moment. The guy has a 17-year career. But have you looked at it? He’s posted negative WAR almost every year since he turned 31. His +.2 WAR last year comes on the tails of a eight-season span where he “created” -4.6 WAR. At his peak as a 29-year-old baseball player, Ian Patrick Anderson made a whopping .6 WAR. His first season consisted of a 3-game cuppa, so we’ll ignore that one, but he did -.4 WAR his real rookie season with Calgary, then went to San Anotonio, where it took him two seasons to get back to “0” WAR on his career. At the end of the day, that seventeen season career saw him create -3.5 WAR.
In the meantime, for that -3.5 WAR, Anderson has been paid $15.6M.
Not a bad deal if you can get it.
The question has to be asked, though, what kind of dirt does Anderson have on the Phoenix front office?
Anyway. I think he’s done. But, to be fair, I think he’s been done for a decade, and he’s made about $10M of that career total in this time period, so what do I know?
The next three guys should probably be done, too, but we will see.
Edmonton’s Stephen Collins III is a living legend in Edmonton, and has two team options for $3.3M each. He can still hit for a little average, and despite that age, the wheels have stayed on pretty well. Defensively he’s a rock, though. It’s a tough situation for the Jackrabbit front office. What do you do with a fading legend? Do you want the fans to revolt? So, I dunno. You probably take his deal and try to convince him to take a role in the front office. Either way, he hasn’t been an impact player for two seasons now.
Likewise, the Jackrabbits’ Dan Flores is entering the free agent pool at age 39. His days as a CF are clearly past him, and he doesn’t hit with enough power to make him attractive as a corner. He’s still turning positive WAR, though, which says that if he’ll take a small salary he could be a solid enough guy to come off the bench as a 150 PA defensive replacement in those corners. Don’t expect any of those 3.5 WAR peak years he’d turn back in the day, but we’ll see if the market says he’s done or not.
Long Beach’s Fernando Castillo sits in the middle of Collins and Flores. He’s got two team options at $3.5M for Stephen Lane to decide on. That doesn’t sound too pricy, but the truth is that the past six seasons, while all above sea level on the WAR-o-meter, have been wildly varied. His 0.5 WAR this yea was preceded by 3.1 in 2055…but two tepid seasons before that, then a 3.1 and a 0.3. If Castill has a 3.5 left in him, Lane needs to snap up that option. If a it’s a 0.2 standing behind the door Carol Wayne is in front of, well, then he needs to be let go. The ratings say to keep him around a bit longer, so I’m guess that’s what Long Beach will do.
Interesting call, though.
While those players are at least done with being impact players, the last four are looking like they are still capable of playing championship baseball.
Of them, Montreal’s Jose Rincon’s appearance is the most surprising. That 2.1 WAR was done in only 316 PA, and was the first such production he’s seen for … well … a long, long time. His wheels are still good, and he’s able to hold down DF well enough, anyway. That said, he’s showing a propensity to some brittleness, having been injured five times last season. Not a great sign. Montreal holds a team option for his services this coming year. If they don’t exercise it, I’ll give him a 50/50 chance to catch on somewhere, simply because CF are hard to find.
If Rincon’s performance was the biggest surprise, Yellow Springs’ Dong—po Thum is the most tenuous. It took him 614 PA to turn his 1.8 WAR last season, and baseball people are saying his slippage is totally showing. He’s under what amounts to an $8M a year deal for the next three seasons, though, so don’t expect him to go anywhere soon. We expect he’ll be good enough to contribute for now.
At the end of the day, I think both these guys are skating on thin banana peels.
Kidane Ata, though, looks like he’s just keeping on keeping on. Sure, he had a cranky back and a knee injury that might make a guy pause. But that 2.1 WAR is as legit as any of the other year’s performance. He had just shy of 500 PA. Give him the 600 he got the year prior, and you probably match is 2055 w.7 WAR. Ata’s case for the Hallof Fame is all about longevity, though. He’s at 62 career WAR, which is enough that when paired with awards and Monty championships, he should be about a lock. He can still play corner defense, and he can still hit at league average (exactly 100 OPS+). Barring re-upping with Vegas Real Soon Now, he’ll be a Free Agent this year, and I’d expect he’ll draw interest. The question is, perhaps, whether he’ll price himself out of the market. He made $12M last year. What will it take to make him play again?
Finally we come to David Simpson, who seems to be literally timeless.
He struggles with LHP, but to be fair, that’s always been a bugaboo for him. That said, he rakes RHP and did it to the tune of a _145 OPS+ against them. That will play. He made $6.5M this year, and we expect Twin Cities will either re-up him if the price is right or be looking for him again in the free agent pool. Either way, I’ll be totally unsurprised to see Simspn in a BBA uniform someplace in 2057.
SUMMARY: AGE 39
So, there we have it. Nine players. Three are essentially done now. Four may well play next year, and maybe even well, but are really just filling out the edges of their time as a baseball player Two – Ata and Simpson should hold value.
