2055-2056: The Opt-Outs

[RonCo]

In earlier threads I looked at Team Options and Player Opt-Ins. Now we’re to the early sages of free agency, and we have the chance to look at the last stage of the process, Did the guys who opted out do better or worse than if they’d stayed the course.

To look at this, I gathered each player’s contract status when at the start, and then after they opted out, pulled their asks from the game. Note—this is the ask that the player made of Sacramento, which could have been different from any other team. But still, there we go. Then, once each player accepts a new deal, I’ll put those numbers here and we can see what we think.

Ultimately, this means this will be a running thread of a feature, and I’ll add in more players as the sims pass (and I get time).

Let’s take a look-see, shall we?


Tony Frost

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	VAN	$11.0m(P)	$16.0m(T)
Asked		?	?	?	?	?	?
Signed	VAN	12.8	12.8	12.8 (P)

I’m starting with Tony Frost because this veteran opted out, but then signed a new deal with Vancouver before actually filing for Free Agency. At the end of the day, he converted $11M guaranteed (and a possible $16M TO), Into $38M guaranteed over one more year. I suppose a rational guy could argue he could have stayed, but for my sensibilities this was a good result for the player (made better by the fact that the team is probably good with it, too).


Barney Lindsay

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	NSH	$14.8m	$14.8m(P)
Asked		13	13	13	13	13	13(P)
Signed	NSH	14	14(O)	12	12	12(P)	12(P)

Lindsay is another guy who finds himself back with his old team. I’m not sure this is really a good deal for him, though. I mean…I guess it’s okay. How you feel about it depends on how you feel about that string of four $12M years. It’s good that Lindsay locked into a long term value, He converted $29.6M guaranteed to $76M guaranteed, so I’ll call it a good move in the end, but my gut says that he’d have gotten more as a 32-year-old FA. Of course, there’s also the fact that he’s locked in this deal as a protection against injury. Kind of. I mean, if the game enforces it these days.

Reasonable Decision


Lindsay Barber

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	CCJ	$3.2m(P)
Asked		4.64	4.64	4.64(P)
Signed	VAL	6.91	3.3745	3.3745 (P)

Lindsay Barber took Valencia cash and converted $3.2M to $13.5M over three years. The contract is front loaded, too, which helps the team quite a bit I would guess. I also like the timing of the deal from Barber’s standpoint because barring injury he’ll be a free agent again at age 33, and I see no reason he won’t be able to command a reasonable number at that point. The guy is an iron man, after all.


Bottom Line

For the first three guys out the chute, I’d say the decision to opt out has been well-made and resulted in improved positions for the players. So, kudos to the game itself.

Now we see what happens going forward.

[Dington]

I feel Lindsay will opt out in two years and test free agency again at 33.

[BaseClogger]

I feel Lindsay will opt out in two years and test free agency again at 33.

Yeah, he kinda gets the best of both worlds by sacrificing $800K per year. I’m guessing Ron missed that.

[RonCo]

I feel Lindsay will opt out in two years and test free agency again at 33.

That's true. But he already could have opted out next year, so he gave up $800K and an opt-out this year.

I'm fine with the game's operations, but my gut says he hasn't done his best optimization, and that based on the deal he got, and alternate timeline where he opted out next year would have netted him more.

[RonCo]

The more I think about it, the more I think Lindsay's decision tree was pretty mediocre. He didn't get screwed, but I'd say he left money and leverage on the table.

[jiminyhopkins]

For the first three guys out the chute, I’d say the decision to opt out has been well-made and resulted in improved positions for the players. So, kudos to the game itself.

Now we see what happens going forward.

[RonCo]

Oops. my only excuse is that I live in America.

[DaveB]

Wanted Barber back he was willing to settle for a 3.5 X 3 year deal after opting out, but I didn’t realize it was a morning sim instead of an evening sim.

[Trebro]

I feel Lindsay will opt out in two years and test free agency again at 33.

Absolutely agree which is why I don't do opt outs. I want the control.

[Dington]

I feel Lindsay will opt out in two years and test free agency again at 33.

Absolutely agree which is why I don't do opt outs. I want the control.

I’m ok if he opts out. Actually hope he does. (I think)

[RonCo]

Billy McKay

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	SA	$9.0m(P)
Asked		11.6	12.6	12.6	12.6	12.6	12.6(P)
Signed	EDM	13.6	12.1	10.1	9.1	7.6	7.6(P)

McKay leaves San Antonio, where he was going to make $9M this year. He asks for something north of $74M and settles for $60M-something, $13M of which are due this year. At 31 years old I suppose you could have tried something shorter in duration to try to get to FA again, but screw that. The guy could be dead at the side of the road next week, as far as my significant sweetie keeps reminding me. Go for the gusto now! Anyway, it seems like a heck of a good concept to me. I call this one a good move.


Daniel Pepper

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	MEX	$7.8m(P,^)
Asked		14	14	14	14	14	14(V)
Signed	JAX	12.2	12.2	12.2(O)	15.4	19.8(T)	19.8(V)

Yes, indeed, here’s how you turn $7.8M into $52M and have fun doing it. And if, for whatever reason, the Team option is taken up, that’s $71M. Pepper is a prime beef player entering the last stages of his contract life. He made a very good choice.


Frédérick Brisset

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	NSH	$10.0m(P)	$10.0m(P)
Asked		12.6	12.6	11	11(P)
Signed	SEA	13	13(P)

Brisset leveraged FA to get a ride to Seattle and a 30% pay raise. Seattle can be nice, I hear. Sounds like a great decision, even if he didn’t get the years he was looking for.


Todd Stone

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	MAD	$8.0m(P)
Asked		?	?	?
Signed	SA	6	6	6

This one is a “meh” for me. At 30, I think Stone could have gotten the same deal next year, so opting out of $8M this year puts a crimp on the family budget for no reason. Even if he gets only $5M next year, he still would have been better off staying. And with only three years of security, well … poor guy. So, this isn’t horrific, but I think I’ll call it a blah decision.


Lance Harrison

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	CHA	$8.0m(P)
Asked		8	8	7.5	7.5	7.5(P)
Signed	LBC	8(O)	8(T)

Opted out if $8M. Signed for $8M and a team option, which you grade as nothing. So the decision is a wash. At least he got out of Charlotte and onto a squad that might win a little. Another meh choice, I guess. Not bad. Not good.

[trmmilwwi]

Good stuff Ron. I wasn't expecting to lose McKay but he clashed with my new manager. He does look good in that Edmonton jersey though!

[Knucklehead254]

Really glad I got Frost back for just 3 years when he seemed dead set on wanting a 6 year contract! Feel like my window matches his contract so I’m happy to have him back

[RonCo]

Not too surprising given these names, the last batch of signings turned into fantastic deals for the players. I admit I ponder if one or more of these deals will crash in the end, but one never knows, right? It’s day one of these deals, and that means everyone’s happy.

Here we go:


Larry Barkin

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	DM	$8.0m(P)
Asked		12	12	12	12	12(V)	12(V)
Signed	SEA	13	13	13	13	13(V)	13(V)

Thirty-three year old Larry Barkin was due $8M from Des Moines, and basically decided it would be worth just about anything to get out of the Heartland. He asked for essentially $12M per year for four years and a pair of vesting years that one suggests will possibly not work out. He got $13M for those four years and two vests from the Pacific Division’s Seattle (who has needed to patch together essentially an entire offense this off season). This seems like an upgrade in every way. A bump in cash and replacing corn cobs with the Space Needle. Who could ask for more? Larkin is still a ++ defender, and as long as he stays that way, this is a good signing for Seattle. He’ll be 37 when those vesting years come into play, so there’s a reasonable chance that will work out. Time will tell.

Regardless, this is a great decision on Barkin’s side.


Lineu Aldo

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	MTL	$17.0m(P)
Asked		16	16	16	16	16(P)
Signed	MTL	18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6	18.6(T)	18.6(T)

Montreal continues what looks like a pretty significant spending spree this off season by brinigng back longtime Blazer fixture Lino Aldo. The dude is 36 now, and while he is the face of the franchise, he’ll be 40 when those team options come in, so this is another big chunk of development risk. That said, looking at the decision to opt out or not, it seems clear that Aldo made a very good decision. He and the missus went from $17M guaranteed to, what, $93M?

Seems like a very good decision to me.


Tyler Ober

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	SFB	$10.0m(P,O)	$10.0m(P)
Asked		11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	10.6(P)
Signed	ATC	12.5	12.5	12.5	12.5	13	11.4(P)

At thirty, Ober opts out of $20M in San Fernando and signs with the Gamblers for both an annual raise and four more years. Ober has been a consistent 2.5-3 WAR for most of his career, so at $12M/per year that’s $4M/WAR, which feels just a touch high, but a gambler in the hand is worth two on the felt, right?

Again, though, the decision Ober made was probably a tough one, but it obviously paid off.

[Trebro]

I think 4 million per WAR in FA for the best players seems about the market rate.

[BaseClogger]

I think 4 million per WAR in FA for the best players seems about the market rate.

I think there’s a lot of disparity depending on the position. I just couldn’t sink that much into a platoon 1B, even one as beloved in San Fernando as Ober.

[RonCo]

As best as I can tell we had one more “opt-out signing” this past sim, and it was a ho=hum affair, with Arnoud Budding going to Montreal on a deal that essentially matched what Budding had in Phoenix.

Aarnoud Budding

	Team	2056	2057	2058	2059	2060	2061
Opted Out	PHX	$8.6m	$8.6m	$12.6m(P)
Asked		$13m	$13m	$13m	$11m	$11m	$9.5m(P)
Signed	MTL	$3m	$12.6m	$12.6m	$12.6m(T)	$12.6m(T)

Budding actually takes a tiny step back in guaranteed income ($29.8m > $28.2m), which I suppose you could therefore say was a dumb decision, but in the bigger picture, Budding simply took a gamble on the market and essentially came even. The upside at decision time was probably palpable, so I have a hard time saying it was a bad decision, even with Budding’s advanced age.

[BaseClogger]

Budding actually takes a tiny step back in guaranteed income ($29.8m > $28.2m)

I think you'd have to include the team option buyouts as guranteed money. Don't have access to the game to see what they're worth but I assume it's something.