This time I’m looking at SP Danya Tchekanov . This is the guy who won the Frick League Nebraska in 2041 and 2050, and was in the mix for a couple more, finishing 2nd and 3rd in the voting one time each. He dropped 2400 Ks on his career, and was that anchor for several pretty good Long Beach teams during his span. On a personal note, he is also a guy I gave a solid week of trying to pry from Long Beach’s hands when I was on a quest for a new ace. I love me some Danya Tchekanov.
He made the All-Star team 8 times, and took home a pair of Zimmers for pitchers … whatever you make of those.
Given that, is there any way to NOT vote for Danya Tchekanov?
Unfortunately, the answer is yes. Though I’m not sure I’m going to go with that.
First, as always let’s look at the indicators … they will not tell a good tale:
JAWS 56.2 vs. SP HoF average 69
Gray Ink: 12 (33)
Black Ink 130 (167)
HOF Standards 35 (50)
HOF Monitor 92 (133)
By pretty much every one of these standards, Danya’s case falls flat. His Black Ink scores moderately well because he led the league in ERA wo times, and in WAR twice, also. He was a workhorse, too, tossing at least 180 innings a season (and upward of 230) throughout his career—something that let him lead the league in Quality Starts three times.
At issue, though, is that by these metrics he’s down around #60 on the list of historic SP. The top 30 mostly in, but after that it gets spotty.
I would list his WAR ranking, but you’ve got to go down to #57 to get there, and I’d rather not do that. Danya’s got 68 WAR, which sounds good, but is, for a SP, not THAT notable. You know who has 69 WAR and doesn’t even appear on the ballot? Aki Kondo. That’s who. I would love to have a conversation about Kondo, but the fact is that I don’t know that he belongs in the Hall, and at one WAR below that, it makes me rethink Tchekanov. Is my initial support of him overblown?
Probably, yes.
Tchekanov’s record was a pedestrian 179-134 (he ranks in the low 90s for Wins, which I agree is a crappy stat for accounting true skill but is a great stat for accounting Story.
In the end, this part of the Story leaves me wistful.
I’m getting a real Robin Roberts kind of Vibe. Great pitcher, but not a big winner.
Of course, Robin Roberts is in the MLB HoF, so there you go.
Here are his Bill James questions:
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
He did win those two Nebraskas, but I’m not sure anyone would have said he was the best player in baseball. Let’s call this one a draw.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Certainly. Or at least one can argue he was the undeniably the ace of the Surfer staff.
3. Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?
Obviously.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Not as many as the fans would have liked, but when he pitched in the postseason, he was lights out. (13 G, 9 GS, 4-2, 2.89 ERA).
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. He was productive his entire career.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? (Remember, this was written before the heart of the PED era)
Meh. I suppose it depends on how you read his Story. By the numbers he’s not close to the best not in the Hall.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Surprisingly, I would say no. Even those 2,400 Ks (which looks good on the page) registers him only at #98 on the all-time list.
8. Do the players numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? (“Hall of Fame standards” are another James invention, the results are listed on every player page on Baseball Reference, you can see what the numbers are by which James calculates those “standards” by visiting Baseball Reference here)
No.
9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Just those beautiful blue bars of his prime.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
Define “eligible.” By the three on the current ballot, I’d say yes, but I’m not sure that’s a fair question here.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
Two Nebraska wins, and two “very close.”
12 How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?
Eight times an All-Star.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
You would like to think so, right?
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Mainstay in Long Beach and the lustworthy envy of many other GMs.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
We will stipulate he was an upstanding baseball citizen.
Off Topic
Bottom line assessment – I walked into this thinking I was making a case for voting for Danya Tchekanov, and I’m leaving thinking that I will not. That makes me sad. I think the “Three Nebraska” rule of thumb that probably got a weak-cased Crash LaLoosh into the Hall gets applied here with the opposite result. If Danya had flipped one more Nebraska, I’d overlook the weakness of other parts of his case. (That said, though clearly not quite a right match, LaLoosh was closer to Sandy Koufax than Robin Roberts, so – for me anyway – his case was a little more obvious even without the three Nebraskas).
So, yeah.
I dunno.
Where I looked at a guy like Franciso Flores and argued myself into a vote, I’m kinda going the other way with Danya Tchekanov. Outstanding pitcher, but the world just didn’t really work out well for him.
Call me “on the fence, leaning toward no.”
So, yeah.
I dunno.
Where I looked at a guy like Franciso Flores and argued myself into a vote, I’m kinda going the other way with Danya Tchekanov. Outstanding pitcher, but the world just didn’t really work out well for him.
Call me “on the fence, leaning toward no.”
