The Value of Outfield Arms

[RonCo]

Here’s a study I was just beginning to get interested in when I last dropped off. What, I asked myself, is the value of outfield arm in controlling the running game. In order to fully study this, I need to figure out a way to track the status of base runners through nothing but parsing game logs. I’m sure it can be done. I just haven’t taken the few days it would need for someone as dense as me to figure out.

So right now, all I can get is something fairly simple.

That being two things:

• When a runner tries to take the extra base, how often are they safe?
• When a runner tags up, how often are they safe?

With my script, I can get to some fairly fine detail…as in which outfielder was involved, and what base are the runners trying to take advantage of. To present that detail would take some serious manual work, and since I’ve only got partial, small sample size data, the cost/benefit ratio is not high. So instead I’ll just put the high-level raw data here so that we can all mostly just stare at it and see what we think:

Remember, this data is only from June 2-Sept 14:

Row Labels	OF Assists	Extra Bases Taken	Tag Throw Out	Tag Safe
Atlantic City Gamblers	17	168	6	43
Boise Spuds	20	133	7	37
Brooklyn Robins	20	181	4	55
Calgary Pioneers	12	157	1	34
Charlotte Cougars	13	135	5	38
Charm City Jimmies	18	116	7	34
Chicago Black Sox	11	164	7	42
Des Moines Kernels	16	116	10	33
Edmonton Jackrabbits	12	143	3	37
Hawaii Tropics	17	139	8	45
Jacksonville Hurricanes	12	137	1	30
Las Vegas Hustlers	21	157	12	44
Long Beach Surfers	11	154	5	49
Louisville Sluggers	20	176	9	41
Madison Wolves	18	155	7	43
Mexico City Aztecs	21	151	6	32
Montreal Blazers	19	132	7	34
Nashville Bluebirds	14	125	5	29
New Orleans Crawdads	26	175	4	39
Omaha Cyclones	15	102	6	19
Phoenix Talons	17	170	9	51
Portland Lumberjacks	15	145	8	35
Rockville Pikemen	24	172	8	42
Rocky Mountain Oysters	15	149	2	41
Sacramento Mad Popes	16	130	7	41
San Antonio Outlaws	10	129	4	30
San Fernando Bears	17	155	3	38
Seattle Storm	16	141	4	33
Twin Cities River Monsters	15	139	10	43
Valencia Stars	17	135	4	41
Vancouver Mounties	9	152	2	43
Yellow Springs Nine	15	171	2	40
Grand Total	519	4704	183	1236

Fascinating, isn’t it?

One thing to realize right off the bat is that without further context, these this stat is a lot like double plays. For a team to lead the league in outfield assists, it helps if the pitchers (or defense) puts a lot of runners on base. So that alone is not a good thing—as New Orleans fans can attest. Their outfielders have gunned down 26 guys trying to take the extra base. Rockville is next at 24.

On the other hand, Des Moines outfielders have erased 10 guys trying to tag up, a rate that I think leads the league.

So that’s interesting. I’ll keep an eye on it next year when we might have enough data to actually say something real with. And, if I get some sudden time/insight, perhaps I’ll be able to track runner state, too. Which would be great, right? I mean, what idiot doesn’t want to know how often a 9 arm in right field keeps a runner from even attempting to dash home from first on a double into the corner?

… All right. Don’t answer that.

[Jwalk100]

This one is very interesting.

[RonCo]

I'll admit I ponder the chart at this point. I think the data is good, but I dunno. Vancouver looks horrible here. Right this minute they have some good arms in the lineup.

Time will tell.

[RonCo]

I'll admit I ponder the chart at this point. I think the data is good, but I dunno. Vancouver looks horrible here. Right this minute they have some good arms in the lineup.

Time will tell.

Quoting myself ... Ha! I'm back, baby!

Anyway ... digging into the Vancouver data and spot-checking a bit, I can say that the tabulation of actual results from the game logs seems to be correct. I'm interested now in runners who take extra bases on ground balls vs. fly balls vs. line drives, though. I hadn't thought about that. Must do more thinking.

[jleddy]

I'll admit I ponder the chart at this point. I think the data is good, but I dunno. Vancouver looks horrible here. Right this minute they have some good arms in the lineup.

Time will tell.

When you play half your games where centerfield goes out to 455', you're going to have some wonky data.

[RonCo]

Yeah. I do actually wonder if that massive min-value park warps these numbers a little.

[BaseClogger]

Never thought about how my wonky outfield dimensions would impact what kind of arms I need in the outfield. In theory I could get away with Johnny Damon’s in the corners but need a cannon in CF.

Chico’s gives me a headache sometimes.

[RonCo]

I don't know how the park would influence that, but I don't know that it doesn't ... that's part of the fun of looking at the data, though.

[CTBrewCrew]

Vegas led league with 12 tags thrown out fro OF