The Brewster

I have to admit, I can't help but check the computer-generated Preseason Predictions every year, which near as I can tell are just the results of a single season simulation. More interesting would be the average results of, say, a thousand season simulations, but it's still interesting to glance back and see how accurate the predictions actually wound up being. If nothing else, it's likely always going to be an object lesson in variance.
Click to enlarge

A few quick and dirty takeaways:

• Run scoring was a full 4% higher than predicted in the Johnson League, while the run totals in the Atlantic League were pretty close (<1% variance).

• Louisville (+22 wins) and Yellow Springs (-20 wins) essentially swapped places from the Preseason Predictions.

• Sacramento's pitching. Just... wow. Truly in a league of their own.

• There's enough variance in the predicted versus actual data that there's no reason to give up if your team is tabbed with a grim forecast, but it's also worth noting that the predictions did correctly call three of the four division winners.

• It would probably help to expand the study to include previous seasons, but based on my experience with OOTP over the years, I suspect that this snapshot would prove to be pretty representative of a typical season.

EDIT: By request, a chart of the Preseason Predictions from the Media Guide, as compared with actual results.

That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined

Added a chart to the end with the predicted wins data from the Media Guide.

Dington wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 10:33 am

That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined

Audriculous wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 11:08 am

Added a chart to the end with the predicted wins data from the Media Guide.

Dington wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 10:33 am

That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined

Awesome. I see a lot less disparity in the OOTP predictions than our own. Perhaps they know something we don't.

Great work. I always thought my season was too good to be true and that the OOTP gods would see to that in the playoffs. It was fun though.

Yessssss!

Great league study!

Pitching + Defense + Extreme Pitcher's Park + the green eyed woman = !!SUCCESS!!

The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.

GoldenOne wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 2:16 pm

The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.

Also injuries, waiver claims, and releases.

Jwalk100 wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 3:13 pm

GoldenOne wrote: ↑

Fri May 05, 2023 2:16 pm

The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.

Also injuries, waiver claims, and releases.

I mentioned injuries but I think waiver claims and releases are generally guys that arent as likely to influence a season too much. Those guys are generally small or negative WAR guys.

Nice write up

Projections from anywhere are a crapshoot in the BBA. Parity galore here!

This is awesome. Nice work

Nice work

Offense bit me this year. not close to the projected runs scored.

Excellent work!

Usually I am more optimistic than the predictions. For whatever reason I thought my team was going to be way worse this year.

Love this!

Very interesting data analysis. Just goes to show that just when you think you know what is going to happen in this league, the OOTP gods say not so fast my friend.