Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

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Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Audriculous » Fri May 05, 2023 10:18 am

I have to admit, I can't help but check the computer-generated Preseason Predictions every year, which near as I can tell are just the results of a single season simulation. More interesting would be the average results of, say, a thousand season simulations, but it's still interesting to glance back and see how accurate the predictions actually wound up being. If nothing else, it's likely always going to be an object lesson in variance.
Screen Shot 2023-05-05 at 10.28.12 AM.png
Click to enlarge

A few quick and dirty takeaways:
  • Run scoring was a full 4% higher than predicted in the Johnson League, while the run totals in the Atlantic League were pretty close (<1% variance).
  • Louisville (+22 wins) and Yellow Springs (-20 wins) essentially swapped places from the Preseason Predictions.
  • Sacramento's pitching. Just... wow. Truly in a league of their own.
  • There's enough variance in the predicted versus actual data that there's no reason to give up if your team is tabbed with a grim forecast, but it's also worth noting that the predictions did correctly call three of the four division winners.
  • It would probably help to expand the study to include previous seasons, but based on my experience with OOTP over the years, I suspect that this snapshot would prove to be pretty representative of a typical season.
EDIT: By request, a chart of the Preseason Predictions from the Media Guide, as compared with actual results.
Screen Shot 2023-05-05 at 11.05.03 AM.png
Last edited by Audriculous on Fri May 05, 2023 11:07 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Dington » Fri May 05, 2023 10:33 am

That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Audriculous » Fri May 05, 2023 11:08 am

Added a chart to the end with the predicted wins data from the Media Guide.
Dington wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 10:33 am
That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Dington » Fri May 05, 2023 11:13 am

Audriculous wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 11:08 am
Added a chart to the end with the predicted wins data from the Media Guide.
Dington wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 10:33 am
That’s a great chart! Would love to see actual results compared to our own experts’* predictions from the media guide. https://pub.marq.com/2054BBAMediaGuide/




*loosely defined
Awesome. I see a lot less disparity in the OOTP predictions than our own. Perhaps they know something we don't.
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by RT60 » Fri May 05, 2023 11:18 am

Great work. I always thought my season was too good to be true and that the OOTP gods would see to that in the playoffs. It was fun though.

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri May 05, 2023 1:26 pm

Yessssss!

Great league study!
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by shoeless.db » Fri May 05, 2023 1:27 pm

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by GoldenOne » Fri May 05, 2023 2:16 pm

The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by Jwalk100 » Fri May 05, 2023 3:13 pm

GoldenOne wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 2:16 pm
The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.
Also injuries, waiver claims, and releases.
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by GoldenOne » Fri May 05, 2023 4:13 pm

Jwalk100 wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 3:13 pm
GoldenOne wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 2:16 pm
The big thing these kind of "hind sight" views dont take into account is trades. I'm sure the random injuries play a factor too, but obviously big trades have a bigger impact. On both teams.
Also injuries, waiver claims, and releases.
I mentioned injuries but I think waiver claims and releases are generally guys that arent as likely to influence a season too much. Those guys are generally small or negative WAR guys.
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by CTBrewCrew » Fri May 05, 2023 7:15 pm

Nice write up
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by neugey » Fri May 05, 2023 8:51 pm

Projections from anywhere are a crapshoot in the BBA. Parity galore here!
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by KJChmura » Sat May 06, 2023 10:02 am

This is awesome. Nice work

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by DaveB » Sat May 06, 2023 10:59 am

Nice work
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat May 06, 2023 11:04 am

Offense bit me this year. not close to the projected runs scored.

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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by JimSlade » Sat May 06, 2023 11:37 pm

Excellent work!
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by ae37jr » Sun May 07, 2023 1:44 am

Usually I am more optimistic than the predictions. For whatever reason I thought my team was going to be way worse this year.
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by trmmilwwi » Tue May 09, 2023 7:36 am

Love this!
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Re: Reviewing The Preseason Predictions

Post by lordtoffee » Mon May 29, 2023 6:05 pm

Very interesting data analysis. Just goes to show that just when you think you know what is going to happen in this league, the OOTP gods say not so fast my friend.
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