Analysis of the First Round of the 2054 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1. The second part is Weiner's Top Ten, in which I detail who I think should have been the top ten picks and why, which will probably happen.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. My point of view dances more than Wednesday Addams, though it can be accurately described as Goo Goo Muck. Most of my opinions are derived from conversations with Uber Eats drivers – who says nobody ever talks to them? The article was left in cold storage, and may have suffered some freezer burn. Do not use as a garlic knot.

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First Round Analysis:

1. CF Wilson Prieto (Brooklyn): Prieto is a rock-solid two way player who will likely end up playing just about every spot on the diamond at some point or another. He’s fully developed offensively with a lefty platoon bat which won’t absolutely require a caddy, though they might be better off with one. His defense is still a work in progress, but there are worse players currently starting at the eight. Brooklyn has been modestly respectable this year and has been suffering with Chris McFadden as a bad defensive center fielder for years, which I’m sure they’d like to fix by moving him to a corner spot, where he’d likely see a significant improvement in value. No serious intangible minuses.

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2. RF/DH/Black Sock From Another Universe William Buckley (Seattle): Buckley is the sort of prospect who would have gone in the top ten in any draft at all, and in this one he wasn’t gonna fall out of the top three. A righty power bat with a very good batting eye, Buckley is never going to win a Yogi Zimmer or probably even a Sawyer Silk but he’s a ten year starter and will make some All-Star Games if he develops fully. He’s already a young 20 and not quite as developed as we’re used to for players his age, but solid intangibles should help. Seattle’s been pretty bad for a while and can afford to wait.

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3. SS/2B Keith Williams (Seattle): The Storm are obviously thinking long-term here, since their second pick is also a five-tool, modestly developed 16 year old. A switch-hitting contact hitter with okay pop for a shortstop or second baseman, Williams is also very fast and should bunt for a number of hits, though he’s not a good base stealer. Would be much more valuable at shortstop if he makes it there. Excellent intangibles and fitness will help.

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4. SP Murugayan Malabanan (Chicago): Looking for a guy to step in right away and make a difference on your ballclub and and 100% guaranteed to defeat your spell check or your money back? Malabanan will help with that. The reigning Fox Mulder in college, Malabanan is well-developed a righty junkballer that had a great college career and relies on a wicked changeup/slider/combination that mixes in a sinker. While he’s a little platoonish he should be solid as a top-half rotation starter so long as he stays healthy; he may have a balky back.
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5. SP/RP Aaron Stevens (Calgary): Stevens had a great college career after not being signed out of high school by Long Beach, but as a professional he’s a bit of a high-ceiling project. Like Buckley, he’s underdeveloped for what we expect from our 20 year olds (Stevens turns 20 in about a month), and like Buckley, his ceiling is likely good, not enormous. But his mid-90s cutter and first rate curveball make him a quality prospect. Might become a reliever if he doesn’t get his forkball. Mediocre intangibles, durability a plus.

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6. CF Emilio Reyes (Long Beach): Reyes is a safety pick in this draft, the sort of balanced player who you don’t have to guess about and who should be valuable as a fill-in at almost any position on the diamond. He’s got the range for center field, however, and should be a durable, productive pro at that position with some possible room to improve. He has a balanced profile at the plate, though as a righty batter he may never be especially outstanding offensively. Fast but not good at running, okay intangibles.


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7. SP/RP Kreshnik Bizi (San Antonio): It will be an interesting challenge question in a few years whether the lefty Bizi or the righty Diego Alvarez, picked two spots after him, was the best remaining pitcher on the board, but they both have enough talent that the answer might just be “yes.” Bizi, the Mike Swanson runner-up, has some really nice attributes; he throws hard for both a lefty and a 16 year old, and his fastball/slider/changeup is projectable and he’s 6’ 2”, 165, so he might not have grown into his body yet. Has a notable lefty platoon without giving up much against righties so far. Very good intangibles and in great shape, will need his changeup to be a starter.

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8. LF Jorge Delgado (Edmonton): Delgado is your classical five-tool raw player who might be the best basestealer from this class and could be a future leadoff man in the major leagues. A contact righty with some pop, Delgado has a well-rounded hitting profile and has a little platoon factor against lefties without giving up ground against righties, a rarity. Was outstanding in both his junior and senior years in high school. No serious injuries, outstanding intangibles, and very athletic, though scouts are concerned about the all-out way he plays and think he might be injury-prone if he continues.

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9. SP Diego Alvarez (Boise): Alvarez was the other side of the coin than the high schooler, Bizi: he's a fully developed starter who's already 21 years old and had an outstanding college career. Additional velocity would help Alvarez's classical fastball/curve/slider makeup, but at his age he's not likely to get enough to make it really matter. He's a classical low-risk early first round type, and despite mediocre stamina he should be a consistent rotation mainstay for a long time.

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10. CF/LF?/RF? Lee McIntyre (San Antonio): Easy to see what San Antonio was getting at here, even with his flaws. McIntyre has almost every tool you’d want except that he’s going to have major problems putting the bat on the baseball. However, he’s a bit projectible in a few ways. For example, his power/eye combo from the left side of the plate will probably mean that his OBP might not tank and he might hit 20-25 homers. He has decent defensive tools and will need to improve his skills, probably at one of the corners primarily. The guy can run, too, and he’s a physical specimen. Bad intangibles a negative, but if he finds another level, watch out.

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11. CF Carlos Sanchez (Hawaii): Sanchez is a safe pick for the Tropics, who basically a fully-formed player who will be adequate at both center field and third base, and probably excellent at both corner outfield positions. He has a well-rounded bat and good pop for a center fielder, and he comes fully developed and very physically fit. There’s just nothing to dislike about Sanchez, who is unquestionably a major leaguer, and is probably a little underrated.

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12. RF Luis Valles (Vancouver): Valles is a five-tool player who has a very solid contact lefty bat that will play in the majors quite well. He’s basically a finished product, and while he’s not going to hit a lot of home runs, he should get on base at a very reasonable clip for the Bears. They can afford to bring him along slowly, as their corner outfielders are some of the best in the BBA, and he might be the guy who replaces Angel Gonzalez, which is not an enviable thing.

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13. SS/2B/OF/ubersub? Frank Jardine (San Fernando): A righty hitter with a passable batting eye and decent power for a middle infielder, Jardine might eventually be moved to his best defensive position, left field. Decent-hitting middle infielders with pop are not a huge commodity in the BBA, and while there are some concerns about his defensive prowess in the field, his bat would likely play there if they chose to go that route. On the flipside, his bat might not play at left field, which usually requires a better offensive player. Maybe he’s a supersub, maybe he plays 130 games at different positions, I don’t know, but he’s a major leaguer for sure if he develops.

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14. CF Jose Vazquez (Rockville): That’s got to be a record for drafting center fielders, as Vazquez is the fifth one taken in the top fourteen picks overall. It might be a record for any position not starting pitcher, and if you add in the three other outfielders chosen that’s more than half of those picks as outfielders. Interesting. Anyway, Vazquez, like the players before him, has a righty bat, good pop for a center fielder, is fully developed other than his defense, and can run. He has excellent range, though he has a weak arm and tends towards flashy plays. The college All-Star has great intangibles and feels like a very safe pick.

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15. SS Felix Abernathy (Yellow Springs): Abernathy might be a slightly underrated middle infielder. He has solid defensive tools, a power bat that should be good for 15-20 homers a season if he were the starter, and a passable batting eye. However, he makes poor contact, and you have to be a little concerned about a guy who had a career .248 average in college, struck out 150 times in 520 at bats, and had repeated hamstring injuries. With his abilities, the worst that will happen is that Abernathy is a decent platoon infielder.
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16. 3B Dave McClain (Madison): Unlike Abernathy above, McClain is a contact bat who very rarely strikes out, posting a Gwynnian 60 strikeouts in 565 college at bats. He also has a passable batting eye and a little pop. He’s not going to be a huge star unless he improves, but if he does, maybe he’s a batting champion; he also doesn’t have his batting eye, but there are glimmers here of Quant Kouros (46 career WAR), who was also never a great defensive six.

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17. C Roy O’Donnell (Jacksonville): Tired of all the center fielders and shortstops? How about a catcher? O’Donnell was easily the best catching prospect in this year’s draft and projects to be a passable defensive backstop with a lefty platoon switch-hitting bat and a good power/eye combination for his position. At 17 years old, he might have some room to grow, and he’s already got most of his skillset other than his consistency at the plate. Poor intangibles will need to be fixed, but O’Donnell projects as a future starting catcher.

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18. SP Geoffrey Greening (Twin Cities): The fully developed Greening had a very good junior season in college, overmatching hitters with his excellent changeup and a decent splitter/fastball combination. I’d probably consider converting him to a reliever in the pros, as he projects right now to a back-end rotation starter but might get a little mileage out of a velocity bump and a fastball/changeup combo. Good intangibles will help, and he should be very signable.

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19. C Victor Prieto (Charlotte): Voted most likely to become a 2055 first round draft pick, Prieto barely projects as a minor leaguer. His mother cried, though, man. She cried when she heard her little boy had been drafted. Prieto, of course, wasn’t at the draft as he was too busy putting up negative WARs in high school.

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20. C Augusto Annis (Rocky Mountain): Apparently, you draft one catcher, and everyone wants one. Annis projects to be a very righty platoon backup two, with decent contact/power skills for a catcher and whose great work ethic and ability to call a game might lead him to be a pretty good coach someday. Looks like a professional baseball player to me, though a history of modest lower body injuries is a concern.

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21. SP/RP/Human LOOGY Freakazoid Tim Redmon (Louisville): Redmon is a player that I do not believe we have ever seen the likes of before, a unicorn with the unique ability to absolutely potentially massacre opposing left handed hitters. Except…except…his 100+ stuff is nearly fully developed, and against right handed hitters, Redmon projects to be a batting practice pitcher. He also has a way to go to develop his control and movement. Also he let up a .655 OPS last year against lefties in college – you tell me how they hit him. Go ahead. I don’t know what will happen with Redmon, but I will be watching eagerly to find out.

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22. 1B Dan Wilkinson (Montreal): Wilkinson had one of the highest grades as a pure hitter in this draft, though he is also more than passable as a defensive three. A reasonable contact/power/eye combination with good gap power but nothing remarkable, Wilkinson doesn’t have a perfect similarity score with people currently in the majors but might be a good one if he improves. He’s just 16 years old with solid intangibles, and Montreal can afford to wait on him.

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23. RP Cesar Torres (Phoenix): Speaking of unicorns, Torres is a bit of one himself. Torres hits 100 on the gun, and his stuff is far and away the best in the draft. He also has extremely good movement. Torres allowed 37 walks in 60 college innings and that should translate into the pros, but he also let up just three home runs in those 60 innings and struck out an absurd 16.5 per 9 innings. He might be significantly underrated despite his obvious control issues.

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24. SP/RP/Annualized Autopick Javier Marin (Sort of New Orleans): Continuing the “What, me worry” draft strategy, New Orleans autodrafts a soft-tossing righty with excellent movement potential and as much of a first round grade as Victor Prieto. He’s massively underrated for his skillset by the scouts, but it’s hard to imagine his batting practice fastball doing much of anything at this point in his career. He’s just 16 years old, and I suspect you’ll see Marin in a college near you next year – and maybe a legitimate first rounder in three more years.

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25. CF/LF Matt Pruitt (Portland): Pruitt is a reasonable outfield project, the sort of player who probably isn’t good enough to play center field but might be a reasonable corner outfielder if he improves his plate skills. He will almost certainly need a caddy in the major leagues, as the lefty hitter has real holes against lefties. He has good outfield range and should make a good defensive seven. A real fitness nut with good intangibles, Pruitt is someone you could maybe watch grow into a major leaguer.

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26. SP Alonso Arroyo (Omaha): Arroyo is the very model of a late first round pick, a classical four-pitch starter with some serious warts. Arroyo tore his labrum last year after not giving up a run in three starts in high school, and that’s an obvious red flag. In addition, he’s asking for a fairly large bonus to skip school, as the straight-A student has sights on college. It might be better for both sides if he does, but we’ll see if Omaha wants to develop him.

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27. SP/RP Ken Bautista (Des Moines): Bautista flipped the script on the college pitcher blowing out his arm. A year after he tore his rotator cuff in his pitching arm, Bautista followed it up by winning the Fox Mulder. He’s just 19 years old, and while he still needs to work on his movement, Bautista is in many other ways a finished product. Probably convertible into a reliever if he doesn’t make it as a starter. Lousy intangibles might not help, but he’s defied the odds before.

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28. CF Julian Cassidy (Charm City): The BBA was apparently thoroughly determined to draft every potentially viable center fielder this year in the first round – Cassidy isn’t even the last one. Cassidy is a powerhitting player with a good batting eye who right now makes very poor contact. How poor? Last year he hit .191 in HIGH SCHOOL. Right now Cassidy does not rank as a starting center fielder in the BBA, but he should be a plus defender at each corner outfield position. Excellent fitness will help, but he has a bit of a bad attitude that will need to be adjusted. An interesting project.

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29. 2B Carlos Schumann (Valencia): Schumann is a slap-tastic middle infielder who had a tremendous 2053 season in high school, finishing third in the Alberto Guzman Award race. His best attributes are his bat speed and his youth. The righty second baseman rarely strikes out and has solid doubles power, though he is unlikely to hit home runs or draw many walks. Schumann currently has no major league skills in the infield, but he’s young and some coaching might get him there, as he has excellent intangibles.



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30. RF Carlos Allen (Atlantic City): Allen was one of the better pure hitters in the draft, and much like Dan Wilkinson eight picks ahead of him, he was de-prioritized by the BBA faithful. Allen does not project as stellar in any aspect of the game, but he’s okay at just about everything and should at the very least be a decent fifth outfielder type with good durability. He had a good high school career and is just a well-developed 16 right now, so we’ll see.

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31. 2B Randy Wright (Las Vegas): Wright is a high school second baseman who has a pretty significant righty platoon factor while not giving up much of his potential against lefties, a rarity. He should make adequate contact for a second baseman and has some pop for a middle infielder. Wright’s big issue will be defense; he has a major league bat but he doesn’t project as a starter anywhere but in the middle infield, and at age 16, his glove is highly suspect. Good intangibles should help.

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32. OF/3B/RP? Raul Morales (Nashville): Morales is a BALLPLAYER, but it’s hard to say exactly how he’ll be used. Morales is a righty outfielder who also pitched a ton in college, and was good enough in 2053 that he posted a 2.4 WAR as a batter and a 1.8 WAR as a pitcher. He doesn’t project to be a pitcher in the majors, but if they ever run out of guys in the 18th inning they might call him up. Morales won’t be a center fielder in the pros, but he might have just enough of a bat that with some seasoning he makes it as a corner outfielder. Great intangibles.

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33. SP/RP Richard Graves (Sacramento): The 2053 Fox Mulder Award winner is a lefty starter with well developed stuff that has to work on his mechanics. He throws very hard for a lefty, hitting 97 on the gun on his sinker, and struck out a lot of hitters in college. He’d make a good reliever conversion if they go that route, as his changeup and forkball are really throwaway pitches at this point in his career. Repeated injuries to his ankle are a mild concern.

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34. 2B Manuel Ortega (Mexico City): One of the top contact hitters in the draft, with some pop for a middle infielder, Ortega might have slipped because of a high bonus demand and suspect defense. The agile, quick Ortega needs to work on his range and consistency, but turns the double play better than just about anyone. His bat might be good enough that the Aztecs will put up with somewhat subpar defense at the four.

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35. C Scott Wilhoit (New Orleans): It appears that New Orleans drafted Wilhoit themselves, which would indicate they intend to sign him. He’s a free-swinging righty who reminds people of Sergei Bobrovsky, the starter for Valencia. Unlike Bobro (shouldn’t his nickname be Bobro bro?), though, Wilhoit might not hit for as much contact or play anywhere near as much defense. Had a home run every three games in high school, which won’t carry over into the majors but is awfully impressive, and he is a physical specimen.

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36. SP Yahya Adhoum (Mexico City): I think this is pronounced "Yah-ia," but if he makes it he'll surely get the nickname Ya Ya. The South African righty is just 18, and hasn’t played in North America yet. Stands to have plus movement and decent control, but gaining velocity will be key for him. An interesting project.

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37. C Matt Buettner (Twin Cities): And here’s a guy who we know can put on his pants one leg at a time, then fasten them, like everyone else. Dress shirts, too. Buettner also has a well developed batting eye for his age, decent pop for a catcher, is built like a tank, and knows how to call a game. He has a subpar throwing arm which won’t help, but if he gets better offensively with a little coaching there are some glimmers of an offensively oriented starter here.

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38. Chris Wilson Special SP Manny Hernandez (Portland): Chris Wilson loves pitchers with six pitches. Pitchers with six pitches are his favorite. This one might be an interesting one with a little velocity, but right now his fastball tops out at 91 and despite good control it’s unclear as to where he’ll land.

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[RT60]

I like this draft because I have a good feeling about my "Human LOOGY Freakazoid"

[Dington]

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32. OF/3B/RP? Raul Morales (Nashville): Morales is a BALLPLAYER, but it’s hard to say exactly how he’ll be used. Morales is a righty outfielder who also pitched a ton in college, and was good enough in 2053 that he posted a 2.4 WAR as a batter and a 1.8 WAR as a pitcher. He doesn’t project to be a pitcher in the majors, but if they ever run out of guys in the 18th inning they might call him up. Morales won’t be a center fielder in the pros, but he might have just enough of a bat that with some seasoning he makes it as a corner outfielder. Great intangibles.

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Morales probably never makes it to the BBA, but it was a fun project pick.

[neugey]

Great analysis! Looking forward to the Weiner Top Ten.

[tylertoo]

Black Sock From Another Universe

Kidding, of course. I've moved on. Great write up! I'm sure this takes a ton of work.

Still not used to seeing Aaron's name with the Jacksonville logo.

[aaronweiner]

I like this draft because I have a good feeling about my "Human LOOGY Freakazoid"

I literally don't know.

I'm looking forward to finding out though.

[aaronweiner]

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32. OF/3B/RP? Raul Morales (Nashville): Morales is a BALLPLAYER, but it’s hard to say exactly how he’ll be used. Morales is a righty outfielder who also pitched a ton in college, and was good enough in 2053 that he posted a 2.4 WAR as a batter and a 1.8 WAR as a pitcher. He doesn’t project to be a pitcher in the majors, but if they ever run out of guys in the 18th inning they might call him up. Morales won’t be a center fielder in the pros, but he might have just enough of a bat that with some seasoning he makes it as a corner outfielder. Great intangibles.

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Morales probably never makes it to the BBA, but it was a fun project pick.

Maybe not on your team.

[aaronweiner]

Black Sock From Another Universe

Kidding, of course. I've moved on. Great write up! I'm sure this takes a ton of work.

Still not used to seeing Aaron's name with the Jacksonville logo.

This was always the "easy" one. I just write a blurb as the draft goes, and I have some particular motifs. If I tried to give all of them a backstory and a human personality it would take forever.

[Jwalk100]

Nailed it as usual @aaronweiner.

Especially with my pick. Those were my thoughts on Sanchez.

[Lane]

Wonderful, Aaron. Glad to have you back and doing this article.

Apt description for my pick, i have a poor history with R1 picks, so the thinking is that if I get SOMETHING out of a pick then i will be happy.

[tylertoo]

Hate to ask this but was the second Prieto pick accidental? Victor confused with Wilson?

[aaronweiner]

Hate to ask this but was the second Prieto pick accidental? Victor confused with Wilson?

You're going to make his mother cry, but sad tears this time.

[ae37jr]

Picked Greening for a bunch of reasons(in no particular order)

-was ranked 3rd best pitcher in college
-bumped stuff and movement each of the last two years
-high work ethic
-extreme groundballer(60%) + High Stuff(30% k rate) means his low movement only effects 10% of his outcomes(only 7 HR in 130 COL IP supports that). Plus we play in a park that nerfs left handed power.
-being fully developed will help him beat up on the newly refined lower minors. Better stats= higher likelyhood of bumping.

Long story short. I feel like he has some upside. Which is all you can ask from a pick in this draft outside the top 10.

[BaseClogger]

Enjoyed reading and spot on analysis of my pick with Jardine. Feel like his high work ethic and overall game gives him a touch higher of a ceiling than others picked around him.

[trmmilwwi]

Great writeup! Spot on for SA picks.

[aaronweiner]

Enjoyed reading and spot on analysis of my pick with Jardine. Feel like his high work ethic and overall game gives him a touch higher of a ceiling than others picked around him.

Funny - I would have said it gives him a higher floor. His best ceiling attribute is that he's 16.

[usnspecialist]

love the write up as always. One comment is that bautista was drafted by Des Moines and not Rockville. I like that he is left handed (i am a bit righty heavy at the moment), and i also look for the junk ball combination that he has.

[DaveB]

Nice write up. Didn’t even notice Cassidy hit .191 in high school.

[aaronweiner]

love the write up as always. One comment is that bautista was drafted by Des Moines and not Rockville. I like that he is left handed (i am a bit righty heavy at the moment), and i also look for the junk ball combination that he has.

Thanks for the note. Fixed.

Lefties are hard to get.

[JimSlade]

Damn, I thought Aaron had secretly donated Bautista to me!