Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

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Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:33 pm

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1. The second part is Weiner's Top Ten, in which I detail who I think should have been the top ten picks and why, likely out tomorrow or later today.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. My sour grapes this year make good whine. I tried to Supersize this review, only to be told by McDonald's that Supersizing no longer exists - I did get fries with it. If you like this review, you'll really love my Tiktok videos where I say every single review slowly, backwards, in Urdu. (Links not provided.) Do not use as a shoelace.


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First Round Analysis:

1. 2B/3B/1B/DH/Megaprospect Felix Ramos (Twin Cities): Ramos might not have the glove to play at second base, but the only way his bat will fall out of the lineup for the next decade is if the highly decorated college hitter gets bored. Considering his otherworldly patience at the plate, we wouldn’t count on it. Ramos’s college numbers are Ruthian: he had a .502 OBP and a 1.135 OPS in 146 college games, and every part of his game should carry over to the pros. His best similarity score is probably future Hall of Famer Mark Simpson.

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2. 3B Emilio Morales, Jr. (Brooklyn): Unlike his counterpart, I suspect that the Robins might play Morales, son of the home run king and newly inducted Hall of Famer, at third base until the wheels come off. Morales isn’t likely to play defense as well as his dad, but scouts believe that he’ll learn how to hit a curveball into next week. Just 17 years old and fresh off winning the Alberto Guzman with the second highest WAR total in high school history (#1 was Hall of Famer Emilio “Sunshine” Rodriguez), it’s hard to think of any way he wasn’t the obvious #2.

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3. SP Tim Redmon (Brooklyn): Redmon had a very nice high school career, and while he’s still very raw, the hard-throwing lefty sure seems like the sort of prospect that’s hard to pass up. Redmon currently has a cutter that doesn’t cut and a slider that doesn’t slide, and the biggest lefty/righty platoon we’ve ever seen – and he’s still growing somehow. Might end up the best one-out lefty guy of all time, or might be a #1 starter – we really don’t know. Redmon has superb intangibles and a great attitude, and stays in top shape.

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4. SP Jerry Stone (Des Moines): Stone was the unquestioned top classical starter in the draft, a four-pitch fastball/curve/slider/change power righty who throws ground balls. Stone reminds many of El Paso’s Anthony Jones, the #1 overall pick in 2048. It remains to be seen whether Des Moines, who is cash strapped, will sign the college righty, especially since he has a history of mild back and lower leg injuries, leading to questions about his durability. But he’s well-developed for his age and should come on quickly. He was also an accomplished college hitter before moving to pitching full time, but his bat is unlikely to play in the pros.

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5. SP Harley Phillips (Seattle): Phillips is a hard-throwing righty who works his fastball into a wicked screwball which was effective in getting strikeouts at the college level, and a developed but sort of throwaway change. His makeup leads to some doubts as to whether he’ll be a starter in the professional ranks; while he’s a hard thrower there’s some question as to his command. He has good control, though, and he comes fully developed and ready to roll out with good intangibles.

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6. SP Ken Gonzalez (Edmonton): Like Tim Redmon, Gonzalez is a big-armed lefty; unlike Redmon, he doesn’t have a massive lefty-righty split. There’s also some questions about Gonzalez’ makeup, as his movement projects to just average and his control slightly below that. However, velocity will definitely help him, and with a classical fastball/slider/change combo he could certainly do that. Solid intangibles, no intangible minuses.


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7. SP Quinton Manning (San Antonio): Manning overpowered college hitters with a mid-90s fastball and the ability to throw seven, count ‘em, seven pitches for strikes. He’s unlikely to be that sort of pitcher in the pros, but for the most part Manning will find the plate, give up few homers, and produce ground balls in bunches. He should be a real workhorse who could regularly hit 200 innings, and might just break the San Antonio injury curse.

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8. SP/RP Adrian Fox (Boise): Fox had a spectacular college career, and his game likely translates as a top reliever. He is the rare pitcher whose makeup makes sense as a starter conversion, too. However, there are some mild concerns. Fox had a multitude of injuries in college, and missed quite a bit of time, which was the knock on him coming out of high school. When healthy, though, he showed why he’s been a first round pick in the BBA twice. Fox could be more than meets the eye, or, if injured, less.
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9. SP Cisco Medrano (Montreal): Medrano probably had the highest ceiling of any starting pitcher in this draft, and there’s a lot to love about the 16 year old. He’s already got major league quality control, and was totally dominant in high school for the past two years. He passes the eye test, at 6’ 6”, 190, already hits 97 on the gun, and could be really dominant with a velocity bump. There are some concerns, however: Medrano has already had multiple minor arm injuries and his stuff isn’t currently dominant, and he’s still a 16 year old kid who has a lot of growing to do. Still, a lot to like here.

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10. SP Edmond Thomas (San Antonio): Need a durable, developed, college lefty who’s also a straight-A student? Thomas doesn’t throw especially hard, but he’s a groundballing lefty who was excellent in college and should pay nearly immediate dividends for the Outlaws. Thomas should eat innings, hold runners well, and be a solid rotation member for the next decade or so or unless he quits to become a lawyer.

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11. SP Alejandro Mendoza (San Fernando): Mendoza is a poor man’s Edmond Thomas, another durable college lefty with a low-90s fastball who’s a bit of a junkballer. Unlike Thomas he’s not a groundball pitcher, but has command of his pitches and would benefit from velocity, even if as a first-pitch cutter guy he might not get there. Sold intangibles, not much to dislike.

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12. SP Aaron Stevens (Long Beach): Stevens made huge leaps in his junior year in high school and was about as dominant as you’d want a pitcher to be, leading the ranks in wins above replacement and with better traditional numbers probably wins the Mike Swanson. He projects as a stopper right now as a professional, a cutter-curve who probably benefits from additional velocity. He’s also a fortune to sign, so maybe Long Beach won’t. Mixed intangibles.

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13. 2B/1B/DH Jason Newton (El Paso): Newton is going to the best possible park for a hitter, El Paso, but mostly what he shows is why it took until pick 13 to pick another hitter after Ramos and Morales. Newton is a well-developed righty hitter with excellent intangibles who makes good contact and has some pop for a middle infielder. However, his defense is underdeveloped and he appears to top out below average defensively.

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14. CF Matthew Ewing (Valencia): Ewing might have gotten the underrated tag so often he’s overrated, but there’s some promise here. The lefty centerfielder has a solid, if inconsistent glove and has decent patience at the plate. He’s also fast, though he has poor instincts on the basepaths. He might make a cheap starter for someone or a really good fourth outfielder.

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15. C Jesse Holman (Charm City): The last time I knocked a catcher with Holman’s profile, it was Seattle’s Trevor Eteldrum, who almost won the Joe Gillstrom last year. So I’m wary. In fact, Holman projects higher than Eteldrum potentially, with a very good switch-hitting contact bat at catcher and doubles power. He should be acceptable defensively and offensively for a catcher. Good intangibles, and in surprisingly good shape for a catcher.
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16. SP Phil Thompson (Hawaii): Thompson looks like a solid lefty starter, the sort of guy who it’s not that easy to get your hands on. Thompson throws extremely hard, but otherwise has basically major league average written all over him. However, his hard sinker produces groundballs in bunches and he follows it with a decent curve and slider. Was very strong in college and no serious injuries, so the hope is that he holds up well in the pros.

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17. RP John Raikes (Omaha): Raikes had an excellent high school career, and finished as the runner up Mike Swanson for the last two years with a combined ERA of about 1.05 – that’s pretty good. He’s somewhat unique in that he should be an above-average reliever but also has quite a bit of promise as a starting pitcher conversion. Durability may be a concern long-term as the 6’ 2” lefty has already had a minor arm injury, but Raikes has top ten talent. Excellent intangibles a plus.

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18. 1B Joe Mother (Phoenix): The only player in the BBA who you better not hit with a pitch. He’s a home run hitter by trade, and when Joe Mother goes around the bases he really goes around the bases, especially since Joe Mother finds it somewhat difficult to take a walk and is also 5’4”, 225. Unlike all the jokes, there are a lot of people who strike out with Joe Mother, even despite the fact that Joe Mother can’t play a lick of defense. Sadly, the dumb jokes don’t work because he apparently got to his earthly girth by studying all the time; other intangibles also fine.

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19. SP Bob Norton (Chicago): Norton is a 21 year old lefty control specialist who had a solid college career. He has just a mediocre arm by BBA standards, but looks to work everything off a 94-MPH cutter and a big changeup. Poor stamina for a starter means he may find his way into the bullpen, where he would make an adequate conversion if his changeup comes in, along with his movement.

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20. 1B Elmer Willis (Vancouver): Willis is a first baseman who had outstanding college numbers, though scouts are concerned that his production in college might not translate 100% to the pros. His skillset matches nicely to Vancouver’s ballpark, and he has outstanding intangibles and a great attitude.

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21. SP/RP Dion McDonald (Calgary): McDonald has both a splitter and a forkball, so it’s very little surprise he’s a groundballer. He’s one of the more developed pitchers in the draft and works everything off a mid-90s fastball and does the little things well, like hold runners. The last guy Calgary drafted like this was Eric Whitehead, who was having a pretty good career until last season; unlike a teenage girl, they’d be thrilled with another Whitehead.

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22. RP Tom Miller (Montreal): Miller has great command of his stuff for a 17 year old, and while he’s got a long way to go to develop his skills he’s got a good chance to make the majors at some point. A fastball/changeup guy who throws groundballs, Miller isn’t convertible and has, like many pitchers in this draft, a big movement gap. But he would also likely benefit from additional velocity. Good intangibles.

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23. 1B Tracy Allison (Charlotte): Allison is a first baseman who makes good contact and can run the bases extremely well, but doesn’t fit the standard profile of a first baseman; he neither hits home runs nor draws walks naturally. He’s just 17 years old, has extremely good intangibles, and is in extremely good shape. If he can improve he could end up like Yodo Sato.

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24. SS/3B Victor Mueller (Madison): Mueller has serious shortcomings as a defensive shortstop, which will probably force him to third base. He projects to have the bat for third base, so that probably works. Mueller needs to develop his contact, but good durability and good intangibles will help, as will the best batting eye other than Ramos in the draft.

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25. SP Joe Macindoe (Rockville): Macindoe is a fully developed college soft-tossing lefty with plus control and solid movement. He was consistently good in college, and works everything off a solid changeup. Velocity bumps would help, and he’s just 20 so maybe that’s in the works for him, but my best guess is that what you see is what you get with Macindoe. We’ll see what that is soon, I suspect.

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26. SP/RP Ronnie Rodriguez (New Orleans): What a shock: A New Orleans autopick. Rodriguez is a bit awkward as a pitcher; he has a mid-90s first pitch cutter and a forkball he throws for strikes and he also has three throwaway pitches: a slider, change, and curve. He’d make a logical reliever conversion, but he doesn’t have the stamina to convert. He does well-developed solid control and solid movement potential. He could use an attitude adjustment.

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27. SP/RP Earl Cox (Atlantic City): Also an autopick. Cox is a 16 year old righty who already hits 96 on the gun, and while he’s got quite a bit of growth to do he’s an interesting pitcher. He had a strong junior year and projects to throw three pitches for strikes, a sinker, curve, and splitter, and throws groundballs in bunches. He also dropped in both stamina and velocity this year, which has to be concerning. He’s an interesting project, though.

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28. RP Cesar Torres (Mexico City): One of the more polarizing players of the draft, Torres has serious control issues but oh my gosh his arm is great. Torres isn’t beloved by scouts because he literally can’t find the plate; he walked 56 batters in 59 innings in high school, including 30 in his last 25 innings. He also struck out 105 batters in that time and allowed SEVEN hits in his last 25 innings. So you make the call. He could be even better with more velocity, though he already hits 100.

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29. OF Warren Coleman (Jacksonville): Coleman is young and has a solid template, but at this point he doesn’t project to the major leagues. Poor defensively and rated somewhat poorly offensively, Coleman will need to develop better skills in order to make the bigs. Solid, unspectacular numbers in high school.

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30. OF Trevor Hickman (Louisville): Hickman has an interesting profile. He might not have the glove to play center field, but might be above average at either of the other two spots. Hickman has all the tools you’d want and a good batting eye, but has serious issues making contact and a poor work ethic.

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31. RP Gabriel Bray (Portland): Bray is a righty reliever with a big righty split who should be ready in a big hurry. Bray is a groundballer who works off a first pitch slider and a sinker that gets to the mid-90s. He also has some holes against lefties and velocity is unlikely to help. Good intangibles, no injury history.

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32. Anthony Williams (New Orleans): Do we need to tell you this is an autopick? Williams is a soft-tossing righty groundballer who’s well developed, with solid control and movement but just average stuff. He has good stamina, but he might need to improve his velocity to easily make it to the pros.

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33. SP/RP Matt Spears (Yellow Springs): Spears is another autopick, a well-developed righty closer who will probably get a chance to start but probably will end up as a reliever with a first-pitch changeup. Spears might get a reliever conversion, which might help as he already throws 98. Has a history of shoulder inflammation which kept him out of one of his high school seasons, but nothing since. Good intangibles.

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34. SP/RP conversion Ben Weaver (Nashville): Third straight autopick. Weaver is a six-pitch righty who doesn’t have good stamina, and while the soft-tossing righty can get five of his six pitches over the plate he has serious command issues. He does have good movement and comes fully formed, but Nashville doesn’t need immediate help and might not sign the guy.

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35. SP/RP Cade Miller (Louisville): The fourth of four straight autopicks, Miller is an interesting pitcher in a number of ways but has developmental issues that might keep him from being signed. If Miller gets everything, he projects to throw three pitches for strikes with plus movement, but right now he’s very raw and it’s a little hard to imagine him getting everything as he’s already an oldish 20. Mediocre intangibles won’t help.

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36. 3B Juan Vera (Sacramento): Vera is a solid looking 16 year old righty third baseman who is extremely well developed for his age; it’s actually surprising he didn’t have a better junior year, though it was pretty good. Solid across the board with no spectacular traits other than his work ethic, Vera has a real chance to make the majors in a couple years if he keeps up the hard work.

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37. RP Josh Miller (Las Vegas): Miller is a fully developed righty reliever who had an excellent college career as a starter. He’s convertible, though with a fastball that tops out at 91 MPH it might not make a big difference whether he gets one or not. Has a bit of a righty platoon that could limit his exposure, but he’s also adequate against lefties.

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38. OF/1B/DH Floyd Denton (Brooklyn): Denton is the sort of player who usually fits the profile of a guy who plays defense and runs, a slap-hitter/doubles hitter who rarely strikes out but doesn’t hit home runs or walk very often. Except that Denton isn’t fast or good on the basepaths and can’t field. He might be a passable first baseman but probably doesn’t have the bat to play there.

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39. 3B Jose Gomez (Mexico City): Gomez has a reasonably balanced bat which should be good enough to play at third base, assuming his glove holds up. He’s very well developed for 16 years old, and if he can find new levels of performance at the plate he could be a pretty good starter. His defense has a long way to go, but maybe he’ll get there.

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40. RP Kent Grange (Portland): Grange is a hard thrower for a high school player, hitting 97 on the gun, and the sidearmer has reasonable skills all around. He's definitely a reliever, as the righty has poor stamina. Additional velocity would definitely help him. The righty has a long way to go and poor intangibles, but you could do worse at the end of the first round.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by tylertoo » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:34 pm

Nice work! Otto Pyck heartily approves!
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by ae37jr » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:43 pm

Ramos already has .7 WAR and 20 walks in 24 BBA games. I've been letting him learn 1B on the fly and he has done quite well with a .9 zone rating. So I think that's where he will stick.

I may cross train him at 3B later in the season and/or spring training cause he could probably play a little below league average there and that would open up a spot in lineup for another monster bat if I ever come across one Problem being there aren't that many young monster bats to go around.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by bschr682 » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:00 pm

Willis can actually play corner outfield a bit and so far he’s crushing single A. I feel like he needs a bump though to really make it.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by CTBrewCrew » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:59 pm

Mueller splitting time at 2b/3b as many if pos as possible- not a regular day bba SS
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by chicoruiz » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:21 pm

I look forward to this every season...even when it makes me second-guess my pick.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by JimSlade » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:59 am

This is great stuff, thanks. I agree with your take on my pick. He'll be fun to watch cruise past the younger competition until he comes up against some higher tier prospects. We'll see what happens then.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:28 am

ae37jr wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:43 pm
Ramos already has .7 WAR and 20 walks in 24 BBA games. I've been letting him learn 1B on the fly and he has done quite well with a .9 zone rating. So I think that's where he will stick.

I may cross train him at 3B later in the season and/or spring training cause he could probably play a little below league average there and that would open up a spot in lineup for another monster bat if I ever come across one Problem being there aren't that many young monster bats to go around.
Pretty sure you wouldn’t lose much by playing him at third now, unless you think you’re gonna slip back into the wild card race.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:29 am

bschr682 wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:00 pm
Willis can actually play corner outfield a bit and so far he’s crushing single A. I feel like he needs a bump though to really make it.
My thoughts too.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:29 am

chicoruiz wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:21 pm
I look forward to this every season...even when it makes me second-guess my pick.
I second and third and fourth guess most of my picks.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:30 am

JimSlade wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:59 am
This is great stuff, thanks. I agree with your take on my pick. He'll be fun to watch cruise past the younger competition until he comes up against some higher tier prospects. We'll see what happens then.
It would be interesting to see what happens with a velocity bump.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by jiminyhopkins » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:11 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:33 pm

18. 1B Joe Mother (Phoenix): The only player in the BBA who you better not hit with a pitch. He’s a home run hitter by trade, and when Joe Mother goes around the bases he really goes around the bases, especially since Joe Mother finds it somewhat difficult to take a walk and is also 5’4”, 225. Unlike all the jokes, there are a lot of people who strike out with Joe Mother, even despite the fact that Joe Mother can’t play a lick of defense. Sadly, the dumb jokes don’t work because he apparently got to his earthly girth by studying all the time; other intangibles also fine.
Turns out Your Mom has a price, and its 2.45 mil.

Not sure if Your Mom is worth it, tho.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2051 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:08 pm

jiminyhopkins wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:11 pm
aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:33 pm

18. 1B Joe Mother (Phoenix): The only player in the BBA who you better not hit with a pitch. He’s a home run hitter by trade, and when Joe Mother goes around the bases he really goes around the bases, especially since Joe Mother finds it somewhat difficult to take a walk and is also 5’4”, 225. Unlike all the jokes, there are a lot of people who strike out with Joe Mother, even despite the fact that Joe Mother can’t play a lick of defense. Sadly, the dumb jokes don’t work because he apparently got to his earthly girth by studying all the time; other intangibles also fine.
Turns out Your Mom has a price, and its 2.45 mil.

Not sure if Your Mom is worth it, tho.
Depends on whose mom. Cheap for Beyonce. Expensive for your mom - I should know.

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