Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
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Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Here's how this is going to go: I give you what I think is my top ten players and justify a little bit. I also give you my last three cuts from the list; that makes it kind of a top 13.
Disclaimer: just because I think this is the top ten doesn't make it the top ten. Someone from Round 8 will probably become a superstar in this draft and blow the draft board away. I haven’t considered the team fit of the teams actually picking at those spots at all; this is a pure value judgment, though I will sometimes mention the fit of the players where they were drafted. I'm never going to do the whole first round; putting them in order would be a sort of arduous, annoying process that's way too open to silly nitpicking (you really had that guy at 22 instead of 24?). I'm only doing this after the first round (or after my whole list is taken) so as not to influence anyone's selections (also I don’t want you stealing my guy). Do not use as a hammer dulcimer.
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Weiner's Top Ten
Number 1: C Tynan Potter
Why Potter over a swarm of pitchers or ostensibly higher-rated catcher Sergei Bobrovsky? Potter has the best chance to be an impact hitter at a position short on impact hitters, while playing just enough defense that he’s probably still usable behind the plate. (If you are confused, look at Weiner’s own starting catcher, who, notably, is thus far the #1 player from his own pathetically weak draft in batter WAR, though I’d expect Carlos Flores to pass him.) Every player in this draft has warts, but Potter is a well-developed 17 year old and he’s durable; to me he’s the best thing in this draft.
Actual #1: SP Anthony Jones
Number 2: SP Luis Gonzalez
Gonzalez is not only the top rated pitcher in the draft, he’s got real advantages over other pitchers in it. The durable thing comes into play again. The fact that he’d be an ace stopper if he doesn’t make it as a starter matters. He’s got a huge arm and he’s young enough to improve. So why Potter over Gonzalez? Because he has a shaky third pitch, and I don’t think Gonzalez is better than Potter unless he gets everything and also gains velocity. But it’s close. You’re gonna have to tell me how he lasted to #10 though. I do not know.
Actual #2: CF John Henderson
Number 3: SP Anthony Jones
Jones would have been my #2 if he were durable, but he’s not, so he’s not. Getting a fully developed starter in this draft that the scouts like seems very good to me, and he looks pretty good even if he doesn’t really have the feel of a top five pick. I’m completely okay with him as a #1 pick in this draft, especially since El Paso has been very respectable this year after basically being launched into space last year.
Actual #3: RP Jason Albert (who could be the worst prospect picked in the top three of all time)
Number 4: SP Joe Jackson
Jackson has a lot of nice plusses: he’s well-developed for a 21 year old, he’s likely to be a solid rotation guy for a long time and he’s probably usable even if he just gets his control. You’ll have to wait a year or two on him, but that’s true of most of the players in this draft. It was kind of hard to order the next six players, but this is my best shot; I don’t think he should have fallen out of the top 10 though.
Actual #4: C Sergei Bobrovsky
Number 5: SP Yoshimatsu Miyauchi
Superb intangibles, great stamina, stellar high school career. I’m not one of those knuckleballers rule guys, but some people are. He’s not completely done yet, of course, but I think the days of picking fully formed pitchers are largely over. A less dangerous pick than some.
Actual #5: C Tynan Potter
Number 6: CF John Henderson
Comparing him to Omaha’s prospect Manuel Torres, who came more developed and about whom I knocked Phoenix for taking two years ago at #16, should tell you everything you need to know about this draft. But in this one he’s a fine choice in the top ten. He might also make me reconsider my stance on Torres. There, thought about it, nope, same opinion, gonna keep it anyway. #2’s a bit of a reach for him, but I also get it.
Actual #6: P Yoshimatsu Miyauchi
Number 7: SP Jerry Stone
Stone gets knocks for being a six-inning type, and I don’t like the repeated back injuries, but his potential stuff is so much better than almost anyone in this draft that I’m willing to take him over a couple other guys. He’s just 17 too, and I feel like if that 96 becomes a 98 he might be the best pitcher from this draft, but he’s also less developed than other people. So #7 feels about right for him, but I’m not aghast at him going at #12.
Actual #7: P Topan Adjeng
Number 8: C Sergei Bobrovosky
Bet some of you who’ve read my stuff for years thought he’d fall out of my top ten altogether. It was a real thought. But here’s the thing: over the past two drafts, name all the players who have had a 10 power potential against righties. Got it? Here’s the list: Hector Cano, Israel Camacho, Sloth Fratelli, Colm Alker, Lee Hogan. And he’s a catcher. So I could imagine him being a free swinging 30 homer catcher with decent defense which is probably a starter, like 1.5 WAR, especially if he lands in the right spot (which I feel like he definitely didn’t in Valencia). But I’m also holding my nose.
Actual #8: P Tokugawa Yamashita
Number 9: 2B/SS Dave Ackerman
I’m skipping the formalities and just making him a second baseman; the guy has superb range and pivots well and there’s really no reason to hesitate. I include the shortstop part of it because his bat will play especially well there and I can monitor him in the minors for a while. He’s a long way away but getting a plus middle infielder in this draft is a big up. This might be too low for Ackerman (I could have put him as high as #6), but it also might not; the advantage of Ackerman is that his skills probably play anywhere.
Actual #9: SS Victor Mueller
Number 10: RP Clint Thomas
If you’re asking me to eat my spinach, I’ll take a plate of Thomas over Melillo. Thomas could be a stopper; he’s durable, he has good stuff, he’s an extreme groundballer and I think I’d rather have him than Tommy Baird, though it’s close. It’s a rare step for me to pick a reliever in the top ten, but Thomas is a lefty, has great intangibles, and if he gained some velocity should be really nice. And did I mention this is a weak draft yet? If Senen Subandrio was in this draft I probably have him at #3.
Actual #10: P Luis Gonzalez.
===================================================================
Last three cut, in no particular order: Bob Norton, Topan Adjeng, Tommy Baird/Adrian Fox (tie) (feel free to ask)
Disclaimer: just because I think this is the top ten doesn't make it the top ten. Someone from Round 8 will probably become a superstar in this draft and blow the draft board away. I haven’t considered the team fit of the teams actually picking at those spots at all; this is a pure value judgment, though I will sometimes mention the fit of the players where they were drafted. I'm never going to do the whole first round; putting them in order would be a sort of arduous, annoying process that's way too open to silly nitpicking (you really had that guy at 22 instead of 24?). I'm only doing this after the first round (or after my whole list is taken) so as not to influence anyone's selections (also I don’t want you stealing my guy). Do not use as a hammer dulcimer.
===================================================================
Weiner's Top Ten
Number 1: C Tynan Potter
Why Potter over a swarm of pitchers or ostensibly higher-rated catcher Sergei Bobrovsky? Potter has the best chance to be an impact hitter at a position short on impact hitters, while playing just enough defense that he’s probably still usable behind the plate. (If you are confused, look at Weiner’s own starting catcher, who, notably, is thus far the #1 player from his own pathetically weak draft in batter WAR, though I’d expect Carlos Flores to pass him.) Every player in this draft has warts, but Potter is a well-developed 17 year old and he’s durable; to me he’s the best thing in this draft.
Actual #1: SP Anthony Jones
Number 2: SP Luis Gonzalez
Gonzalez is not only the top rated pitcher in the draft, he’s got real advantages over other pitchers in it. The durable thing comes into play again. The fact that he’d be an ace stopper if he doesn’t make it as a starter matters. He’s got a huge arm and he’s young enough to improve. So why Potter over Gonzalez? Because he has a shaky third pitch, and I don’t think Gonzalez is better than Potter unless he gets everything and also gains velocity. But it’s close. You’re gonna have to tell me how he lasted to #10 though. I do not know.
Actual #2: CF John Henderson
Number 3: SP Anthony Jones
Jones would have been my #2 if he were durable, but he’s not, so he’s not. Getting a fully developed starter in this draft that the scouts like seems very good to me, and he looks pretty good even if he doesn’t really have the feel of a top five pick. I’m completely okay with him as a #1 pick in this draft, especially since El Paso has been very respectable this year after basically being launched into space last year.
Actual #3: RP Jason Albert (who could be the worst prospect picked in the top three of all time)
Number 4: SP Joe Jackson
Jackson has a lot of nice plusses: he’s well-developed for a 21 year old, he’s likely to be a solid rotation guy for a long time and he’s probably usable even if he just gets his control. You’ll have to wait a year or two on him, but that’s true of most of the players in this draft. It was kind of hard to order the next six players, but this is my best shot; I don’t think he should have fallen out of the top 10 though.
Actual #4: C Sergei Bobrovsky
Number 5: SP Yoshimatsu Miyauchi
Superb intangibles, great stamina, stellar high school career. I’m not one of those knuckleballers rule guys, but some people are. He’s not completely done yet, of course, but I think the days of picking fully formed pitchers are largely over. A less dangerous pick than some.
Actual #5: C Tynan Potter
Number 6: CF John Henderson
Comparing him to Omaha’s prospect Manuel Torres, who came more developed and about whom I knocked Phoenix for taking two years ago at #16, should tell you everything you need to know about this draft. But in this one he’s a fine choice in the top ten. He might also make me reconsider my stance on Torres. There, thought about it, nope, same opinion, gonna keep it anyway. #2’s a bit of a reach for him, but I also get it.
Actual #6: P Yoshimatsu Miyauchi
Number 7: SP Jerry Stone
Stone gets knocks for being a six-inning type, and I don’t like the repeated back injuries, but his potential stuff is so much better than almost anyone in this draft that I’m willing to take him over a couple other guys. He’s just 17 too, and I feel like if that 96 becomes a 98 he might be the best pitcher from this draft, but he’s also less developed than other people. So #7 feels about right for him, but I’m not aghast at him going at #12.
Actual #7: P Topan Adjeng
Number 8: C Sergei Bobrovosky
Bet some of you who’ve read my stuff for years thought he’d fall out of my top ten altogether. It was a real thought. But here’s the thing: over the past two drafts, name all the players who have had a 10 power potential against righties. Got it? Here’s the list: Hector Cano, Israel Camacho, Sloth Fratelli, Colm Alker, Lee Hogan. And he’s a catcher. So I could imagine him being a free swinging 30 homer catcher with decent defense which is probably a starter, like 1.5 WAR, especially if he lands in the right spot (which I feel like he definitely didn’t in Valencia). But I’m also holding my nose.
Actual #8: P Tokugawa Yamashita
Number 9: 2B/SS Dave Ackerman
I’m skipping the formalities and just making him a second baseman; the guy has superb range and pivots well and there’s really no reason to hesitate. I include the shortstop part of it because his bat will play especially well there and I can monitor him in the minors for a while. He’s a long way away but getting a plus middle infielder in this draft is a big up. This might be too low for Ackerman (I could have put him as high as #6), but it also might not; the advantage of Ackerman is that his skills probably play anywhere.
Actual #9: SS Victor Mueller
Number 10: RP Clint Thomas
If you’re asking me to eat my spinach, I’ll take a plate of Thomas over Melillo. Thomas could be a stopper; he’s durable, he has good stuff, he’s an extreme groundballer and I think I’d rather have him than Tommy Baird, though it’s close. It’s a rare step for me to pick a reliever in the top ten, but Thomas is a lefty, has great intangibles, and if he gained some velocity should be really nice. And did I mention this is a weak draft yet? If Senen Subandrio was in this draft I probably have him at #3.
Actual #10: P Luis Gonzalez.
===================================================================
Last three cut, in no particular order: Bob Norton, Topan Adjeng, Tommy Baird/Adrian Fox (tie) (feel free to ask)
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
My debate at 5 was between Jackson and Miyauchi so it gives me some confidence seeing you put them there. González was close, but that third pitch was scary. I see why you put him where you did though.
Great work as always. Thanks Aaron
Great work as always. Thanks Aaron
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I like pitchers who have a fallback plan, and Gonzalez does. Nothing wrong with either Jackson or Miyauchi, BTW. I could have seen Gonzalez falling as far as #6 or 7, but 10 seems kind of gratuitous.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I love that Gonzales fell to me at 10. If I get lucky and he bumps that 3rd pitch a bit, hes a stud. If not hes an epic reliever and i like those.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
When he passed #7, I started to entertain the idea that he might fall to me at #28, and then I started laughing like a lunatic.
Oh, and yes, he should be a very nice pick at that spot.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I’m glad I wasn’t the only one who saw value in Thomas. I wanted someone who was an upgrade at a position inside my organization. I’d have preferred a position player, but none this far down the draft excited me. Louisville’s Keith-Law was my top fielder as he fits the profile I prefer, but his chance of contributing on a BBA roster were smaller than Thomas’.
(FYI: Thomas’ link takes us to Olivares. My top pick last year who has lost 2 points of stuff…)
(FYI: Thomas’ link takes us to Olivares. My top pick last year who has lost 2 points of stuff…)
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Links fixed. I really like Thomas.shoeless.db wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:41 pmI’m glad I wasn’t the only one who saw value in Thomas. I wanted someone who was an upgrade at a position inside my organization. I’d have preferred a position player, but none this far down the draft excited me. Louisville’s Keith-Law was my top fielder as he fits the profile I prefer, but his chance of contributing on a BBA roster were smaller than Thomas’.
(FYI: Thomas’ link takes us to Olivares. My top pick last year who has lost 2 points of stuff…)
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I really tried hard to love Potter, but I just couldn't see him as a #1 overall pick. 17-year-olds make me nervous, especially with high greed and low loyalty. I hade the top four pitchers in a cluster, and couldn't really parse the difference between them, so I just ended up going with the one who wanted the least money.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
The greed and loyalty can be fixed. And I think you chose well, as I made clear, but at the same time, every pitcher in this draft has some minor flaw. So does Potter - his defense is pretty meh. My stance is more a matter of position scarcity.chicoruiz wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:05 pmI really tried hard to love Potter, but I just couldn't see him as a #1 overall pick. 17-year-olds make me nervous, especially with high greed and low loyalty. I hade the top four pitchers in a cluster, and couldn't really parse the difference between them, so I just ended up going with the one who wanted the least money.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
i was really hoping one of the jackson/gonzalez/stone trio would slip to me at 16, but alas. Was reasonably pleased with Baird all things considered, hoping for just a plug and play depth guy in the rotation.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I originally had him at #10 but moved in Ackerman and he got shoved. Baird is a good fit for any team with a good infield defense, and I have that now.usnspecialist wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:57 ami was really hoping one of the jackson/gonzalez/stone trio would slip to me at 16, but alas. Was reasonably pleased with Baird all things considered, hoping for just a plug and play depth guy in the rotation.
He's not going to do well for anyone who doesn't have that.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Woohoo!! I feel like I did something right!!
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
I really wanted him... but there might have been serious issues with TWC signing him. Made me sick to pass on him. Ron suggested to move bonus funds over.... I should have listened.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:32 pmI like pitchers who have a fallback plan, and Gonzalez does. Nothing wrong with either Jackson or Miyauchi, BTW. I could have seen Gonzalez falling as far as #6 or 7, but 10 seems kind of gratuitous.
That said, I think this season will be my worst financials. The next two will be bad, but this one is the worst. What am I saying... all three will be bad... lol.
And my owner is angry with me... I'm like Dude... I'm trying. lol
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Happy to get Fox at 26 but still not sure what I'm going to do with him.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Lots of options: keep and start, keep and relieve, discard and pick next year, or my personal favorite, sign and trade him to me for virtually nothing.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Always up for trading. (I stopped reading after the "trade to me" part.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:21 amLots of options: keep and start, keep and relieve, discard and pick next year, or my personal favorite, sign and trade him to me.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
@jleddy should be back any day now when his Google search for "Top 10 Wieners" directs him here.
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Ha!
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
"Top 10"? I can only handle two at a time...
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Re: Weiner's Top Ten In The 2048 BBA Amateur Draft, And Why
Told you…
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