Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

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Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:14 pm

This is the first in a likely two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. The analysis includes the S1. I have also written a second article which details my top ten picks in this draft and why, but given the nature of this draft am unlikely to go searching for bargains deep into the draft.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. Vomiting may ensue if you feed this to your cat or read this too carefully. No matter how many people are fleeing it (at least 343, by the riddle), I am still going to St. Ives. Do not use as a schooner.


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First Round Analysis:


1. SP Anthony Jones (El Paso): El Paso continues their respectability drive (so far, verdict still out but much progress made!) by drafting another ready righty out of college. Jones hits the mid-90s on a cutter, and follows it up with a nice circle change and slider. Might have some deficiencies against lefties. Great intangibles, good endurance, and should jump right into the majors, if that’s what they want.

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2. CF John Henderson (Des Moines): Des Moines has taken the “Waiting for Godot” draft strategy for several years now, and the farm has yet to produce any fruit from their most recent drafts. They may not have to wait as long on Henderson. Henderson is your classical tools player, and could hit for very good power for a center fielder. He’s durable and literally appears to do everything very well so far except hit, and he’s not too far behind where he needs to be.

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3. RP Jason Albert (Brooklyn): Albert is a shocking pick at #3, as he was not necessarily projected for the first round and has gone in the top five. The righty has a massive gun for 17 years old, but has poor command of his pitches and doesn’t have the makeup of a starting pitcher. Good intangibles will help his development, but I’m betting that development is happening in college – I can’t see Brooklyn wasting this high a pick on signing him.

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4 C Sergei Bobrovosky (Valencia): This is the second time that the Russian Bobrovosky was picked in the first round, and this time he might sign. Bobrovosky is underdeveloped for a 21 year old, but his stocky build suggests he’ll be a powerhitter when he fully develops; his power is rare enough anywhere but would be especially unusual behind the plate. Good intangibles, and he might be a solid defensive 2 when he’s fully grown.

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5. C Tynan Potter (Portland): Potter is likely the most well-rounded hitter in this draft, and he’s a catcher, to boot. Just 17 years old, Potter already shows major league caliber patience and power and just needs his plate skills to improve to be a quality offensive catcher. He might never be good on defense, and his intangibles aren’t strong, but they have time to work on him and he’s a durable player who could be could be very exciting in a few years.

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6. SP Yoshimatsu Miyauchi (Long Beach): A righty knuckleballer from Tokyo, Miyauchi had an excellent high school career, making multiple All-Star games and winning the 2046 Mike Swanson. Nicely developed for an 18 year old, Miyauchi leads with both his knuckleball and a nearly fully developed changeup and can throw for days; he might be able to be their starter four days a week. Superior intangibles, no serious injury history.

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7. SP Topan Adjeng (Atlantic City): Adjeng continues the influx from Indonesia and is in fact the second player with his name; don’t get them mixed up! This one’s a righty starter whose well-developed stuff might land him a major league gig. Adjeng needs to learn how to keep the ball in the ballpark and harness his excellent control, but he might be a good starter some day. Suffered a rather nasty shoulder fracture which hasn’t seemed to hold back his development at all, which shouldn’t be surprising as he has a fantastic attitude.

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8. SP Tokugawa Yamashita (Twin Cities): Yamashita is a lefty starter who hits the mid-90s on the gun and could be a solid rotation guy if he stays healthy. Well-developed for a college player, Yamashita needs a little seasoning to make it to the majors, but works a solid fastball and hard cutter very nicely, both of which might improve with a velocity bump, though he already had a big one this year. Fair intangibles and endurance means he probably can’t afford another big injury.

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9. SS Victor Mueller (Boise): Mueller is a reigning Alberto Guzman Award winner, and his calling card is his bat. Scouts suggest he won’t have the glove to man the 6, but it’s imaginable that with a little development he might end up at third base, where his outstanding batting eye should serve him well. Great work ethic, nicely developed for a 16 year old.

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10. SP Luis Gonzalez(Long Beach): A lot of baseball insiders were astonished that Gonzalez lasted until the #10 pick, as scouts love his power pitcher fastball/slider combo and project the big righty out to be a star. Gonzalez is a fitness junkie who can go deep into ballgames and is projected to have plus movement and control, too. Already hitting the gun at 99 MPH, Gonzalez might become even better if he gains a little more velocity. Decent intangibles; still has a long way to go to be anything much.

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11. SP Joe Jackson (Seattle): Joe Jackson is a college righty who took a quantum leap forward in his junior year, including two velocity bumps this year. Well-developed for 20 years old, Jackson has solid command of five pitches and should be a solid pitcher who pitches to contact. Might have some issues with the long ball but looks otherwise solid. A really solid citizen with a great attitude.

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12. SP Jerry Stone (San Antonio): Stone is a solid high school righty groundballer who throws hard and potentially has some of the best stuff in this draft. A classical four-pitch fastball/curve/slider/change guy, Stone looks like a solid package as a starter. Has a long way to go, but velocity and stamina increases could make him look very good. Repeated back injuries a minor red flag.

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13. CF George Gonzalez (Madison): Gonzalez had a heavily decorated college career, and looks to be a potential starter in center field for the Wolves. He’s an odd choice for them, as their ballpark depresses power numbers and that’s really going to be his calling card at the plate. He does all the little things, though: his glove might keep him in the lineup, he’s very physically fit with good intangibles and he runs the bases well.

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14. RP Eric Stevens (Nashville): Stevens is an interesting righty: he doesn’t throw hard, but scouts love the bite on his pitches. He’s improved his velocity twice already this year with his fastball going from 86 to 90, and he has the potential to have quality movement on his pitches. He doesn’t need a thing to make it to the majors, but even more velocity could make him a closer candidate. Excellent intangibles, and he is convertible if they choose to go that route.

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15. SP/RP conversion Steve McDonald (Mexico City): Young McDonald’s on the farm and he brought his gun. McDonald is maybe the hardest thrower in the draft, and while scouts are concerned about his delivery and his attitude, they love the fact that he hits 101 on the gun. McDonald, who doesn’t have a lot of stamina but does have the potential to throw multiple pitches with success, might be a really interesting reliever conversion if he doesn’t make it as a starter.

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16. SP Tommy Baird (San Fernando): Baird is an interesting fit for San Fernando, whose park encourages batting average and whose defense is below average. He’s a righty with plus movement and control who’s ready for the majors tomorrow, but he’s a pitch to contact type groundballer who needs a solid infield behind him. Had a slight velocity bump this year and still young enough to gain speed on his sinker.

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17. CF/2B Dave Ackerman (Charm City): Ackerman is listed as a center fielder, and he could probably play there. I’m thinking he will be converted to second base as quickly as he hits the minor leagues; he doesn’t have the arm for shortstop, though his bat will play well there. A potentially well-rounded player at the plate, Ackerman would have to make a leap to be an offensive star, but he could be a ten-year starter.

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18. SP Bob Norton (New Orleans): Our first autopick (with three in a row), Norton is a lefty with reasonable velocity on his cutter who projects to have excellent control. Velocity isn’t likely to help him particularly much. Norton also works off a first-pitch changeup and might be a little bit homer-prone. Poor intangibles won’t help, but lefties with promise are also fairly rare.

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19. SP Ronnie Rodriguez (New Orleans): Luckily for New Orleans, it’s the 18 pick I’m pretty sure was the compensation pick for throwing back Allen Davidson last year, so they’ll have the 20 pick next year (unless someone higher throws back their pick too). Rodriguez is just in no way a first round pick; he’s got poor endurance, none of his pitches are really out pitches and there's nothing else remarkable about him. He did have an excellent senior year of high school, but I think he's going to college.

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20. SP Bobby Wright (Phoenix): Wright is the third of three autopicks, and he’s a lefty with reasonable velocity who’s nearly fully developed. What that means is anyone’s guess, though right now he profiles as a lefty bullpen guy and could be Marko’s annual conversion. Brutally terrible intangibles means he might take badly to any role Phoenix gives him, but there’s a little to like here.

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21. RP Clint Thomas (Sacramento): Thomas is a lefty extreme groundball high school reliever who twice finished 3rd in Mike Swanson voting. Thomas works with a sinker/curve combination which pounds the ball into the ground. While he has the stamina to become a starter, his low velocity would likely advise against it; perhaps he could be a stopper. Solid intangibles, durable.

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22. SP/RP Hugh Pilgrim : Pilgrim is a righty nicknamed Lefty, which I’ll leave up to Kevin Dickson to explain when he chooses. Right now he’s a 20 year old four-pitch guy with a decent screwball who still needs to work on his slider and his movement but is otherwise nearly fully formed with great intangibles. I’d expect to see Pilgrim in the pen, however, as his side stuff isn’t dominant and a conversion would push him to 100 MPH.

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23. SP Howard Brown (Jacksonville): Brown had a successful college career, and looks to be one of the top control pitchers in the draft. Scouts believe he is nearly fully ready, and while it’s going to be very difficult to supplant any of Jacksonville’s starters, he might provide solid organizational depth in the meantime, or perhaps trade bait. Brown needs a bit of an attitude adjustment, but assuming he gets it he should be valuable for Jacksonville.

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24. SP/RP John Lucas (Edmonton): Advanced stats like Lucas, who has improved every year in high school. The righty throws in the mid-90s, very good for a 16 year old, and might be able to throw three pitches for strikes at the major league level. Might always be a little homer-prone, but looks the part of a solid rotation starter. He would make an interesting reliever conversion if he didn’t make it as a starter, or if his curveball didn’t come in.

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25. SP/RP conversion Pancho Cardona (Hawaii): Cardona is everything you think of when you think of a solid major league starter except overwhelmingly gifted. He’s a groundball pitcher who can already throw three pitches for strikes. His movement and control are okay. He’s bright and works hard, and he’s even durable. What he loses in natural ability he seems to make up for in drive. I could see him in the majors on Hawaii, soon.

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26. SP/RP Carl Vincent (Montreal): Lefty starter Vincent was one of the unluckiest pitchers in college last year, as he had a absurd, whopping .406 BABIP. He admittedly was a little prone to the long ball, but did post a nice 3-1 K/BB ratio and his stuff and personality suggest he could be a good pro, or at least a solid lefty reliever. Velocity would probably help him.

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27. P Adrian Fox (Charlotte): Other than Sergei Bobrovosky, Adrian Fox might be the most polarizing player among scouts in the draft. The range of outcomes for Fox is enormous: he might become a top rotation starter, an excellent reliever, a complete washout, or something in-between. He’s got enough stamina and enough velocity (101 on the gun) that they could consider him for a starter conversion, but he also has a huge righty platoon factor which might make him more suitable for a bullpen role. Fox’s unusual delivery makes him fragile but he’s never had a big arm injury. At any rate he’s an interesting project.

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28. DH Kevin Daniels (Rockville): The lefty hitting Daniels should not play a second in the field, but he could be a future designated hitter for this franchise. Talented across the board offensively, young enough (16) that he might improve, Daniels has a major league career ahead of him, probably. Sold intangibles, though his multiple injuries might be a concern.

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29. OF Michael Griffin (Las Vegas): Griffin isn’t likely to play a game in center field, his high school position. He wasn’t particularly good at it in high school, either. But Guzman did finish second in Alberto Guzman voting last year, and the 16 year old lefty bat is a well-developed player for his age; scouts believe he might be able to face major league pitching tomorrow, if he had to. He’ll probably have holes against lefties but he might make it as the heavy side of a platoon.

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30. DH Brian Flint (Omaha): It will be an interesting race between Flint and #28 overall Kevin Daniels to see will be the better DH in the major leagues. Flint shouldn’t be allowed to field any position, but his lefty bat might play well for Omaha. His injury history is a bit of a red flag, but he’s solidly talented offensively across the board and having him at DH might help his injury woes somewhat.

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31. SP Karno Soedjamoko (Chicago): Soedjamoko is a Thai high school lefty who’s an extreme groundballer that leads with a changeup. The lefty has the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark regularly with good movement, and while he’s listed as a starter might end up in the bullpen, especially if he gains some velocity. He was an autopick, so he might be going to college.

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32. OF Kei-thing Law (Louisville): There’s a lot to like about Law, who played extremely well as a high school junior this year and has a real knack for knowing when to swing. A solid lefty bat with some likely holes against lefthanders, Law isn’t especially fast or gifted but has solid outfield defensive tools. His success is likely tied to his ability to play center field, as his slap bat isn’t likely to play on the corners. Durable, good intangibles.

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33. OF Arnold Campos (Yellow Springs): Did you know that Cindy Crawford, Kirsten Dunst, John Mayer, and Mila Kunis have all appeared in GAP commercials? Yellow Springs continues to proclaim their love for the gap players, drafting a free-swinging lefty whose numbers have declined sharply since his freshman year. He comes nearly ready and should be passable in the outfield, if he’ll never be a star there. Good intangibles should help.

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34. 3B? 1B? DH? Jon McGinnis (Nashville): There’s a lot to like about McGinnis, though the biggest issue is whether he has a position. While he has a solid contact bat with some pop, right now he doesn’t project to hit well enough to play first base in the bigs, much less DH. There are serious handle issues with his ability in the field, and his arm might be slightly below average for a third baseman. He’s likely to be a player who hits lefties well without having serious holes against righties, though, and you could imagine him improving in any number of ways and making it.

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35. 3B Ken Chapman (New Orleans): Chapman is the sort of player New Orleans has drafted in the past, a solid contact bat with doubles power. He should be very passable at third base and will have to be to make it to the bigs. Doesn’t run well, but has good intangibles otherwise and did have a very productive high school career overall.

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36. P Patrick Hawkins (Edmonton): Hawkins is a durable lefty who throws hard for a 16 year old and might be projectable. His stuff is well developed for his age, and the knock is that he doesn’t appear to have the consistency to be a starter but doesn’t have the stuff yet to be a reliever. Velocity might help, but he’s not a good reliever conversion candidate. Has a chance to be a innings eater or a lefty reliever.

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37. RP Stanley McClure (Charlotte): Hi, this is Stanley McClure. You may have seen him in college striking out 14 batters per nine innings, or in such roles as a groundball pitcher with a righty platoon factor. McClure had a solid college career and is ready already; his fastball/slider combo might benefit with velocity. He was wild in college and probably will walk a few in the pros, but he’ll come on in a hurry.

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38. C Ben Bryant (Omaha): Bryant has found a good fit in Omaha. Well developed for 17 years old with one of the top batting eyes in the draft and good pop, Bryant is a smart, durable catcher who might not hit for a high average or play especially good defense but might do everything else well. A righty platoon factor should help him make it to the bigs, as he might not make enough contact to be a starter but could be Sugiyama’s backup.

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39. P Ben West (Chicago): Why yes, I have, thanks...oh, you weren’t asking, that’s just Chicago’s draft pick there. West is a righty control specialist who comes fully formed; no waiting on a changeup for this guy! He’s also a very soft-tossing righty with a batting practice fastball who’s happily found the right team for him, since Chicago is a hard place to hit a home run. Probably won’t benefit from velocity much. Good stamina, nice last year of college.

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40. SP/RP Warren Scott (Louisville): Scott is well regarded by scouts, who love his intangibles and his 96 MPH fastball, solid for an 18 year old. If he fully develops he should be able to throw three pitches for strikes and eat innings from the 5 hole in the rotation. A good project to have, Scott isn’t flashy but might get the job done.

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41. SP/RP Robert Venables (Charlotte): Venables is a durable high school righty with a huge arm who, in his junior year, struck out 13 batters per nine innings. Venables projects as a reliever, as there are doubts about his makeup as a starter, but he could be a solid one. He won’t benefit from a velocity increase because there’s nowhere to go, really, and he’s wild, but he could make it.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by 7teen » Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:29 am

Excellent work as always.

As I stated in one of the draft threads, Potter might have been #1 on my board and was glad to get him at 5. I actually liked him better than Bobrovsky due to development and their ages.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by GoldenOne » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:00 am

Great work, as always, Aaron!
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by sjshaw » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:40 pm

Thanks for this!
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by HerbD » Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:17 pm

Nice work
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by Dington » Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:56 pm

Idk what to do with Stevens, but figured he had the beat shot at co tribute group at some point.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:04 pm

Dington wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:56 pm
Idk what to do with Stevens, but figured he had the beat shot at co tribute group at some point.
What?

Anyway he's a reliever.

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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by Dington » Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:24 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:04 pm
Dington wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 2:56 pm
Idk what to do with Stevens, but figured he had the beat shot at co tribute group at some point.
What?

Anyway he's a reliever.
Damn. Wish I was drunk when I wrote that. Anyway yeah he’s a reliever, but not sure if worth signing. Guess I’ll wait to see what his actual demand is. But I meant to say he had the best shot of contributing at some point. I don’t expect a lot of these folks to play in the BBA.
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Re: Analysis of the First Round of the 2048 BBA Amateur Draft

Post by aaronweiner » Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:43 am

Whenever I consider that question, I go back to my disclaimer in my Top Ten article which reminds everyone that someone autopicked in the eighth round might be the best player in this draft.

We've had some weakish drafts lately (and at least one which was not) and so the idea of who plays in a few years is sort of relative.

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