BBA 2046 Amateur Draft: Best/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds

[aaronweiner]

As before, for entertainment purposes only.

I cover five rounds because that's the first 195 picks and that seemed sufficient; anyone who makes it after this is probably beyond my crystal ball. I also only review players who were not autopicked. If you don't pick 'em yourself, you don't get a writeup. Telling you that the computer picked really well for you shouldn't make you glow with pride, even if - as we all know - you feel just a little bit impressed with your ability to trust in technology.

Worst value picks are suspiciously missing from this piece. The worst value category is only first rounders, and I looked at the first round and I couldn’t really argue with any of the picks in it. I could have leaned a little bit on some of the low-endurance constructed starters at the beginning, but there would have had to have been someone significantly better to take, and while the hitters were probably better picks, you know, maybe they aren’t. There’s a lot of parity in the first round and it didn’t help. I could have nitpicked but there’s really no reason to establish a piece in black and white that people will look back to and laugh about. Closest was Skip Melillo, but he was 38th and that’s kind of unnecessary – he might as well be a second rounder there.

Warning in advance: I do lean a little bit heavy on the idea that many of the players in this draft are fully developed or nearly 100% fully developed. Fully developed players have three advantages: they require no development, they do not have to be used right away and if they bump it’s an immediate impact, not one later.

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Link to the draft: https://statsplus.net/brewster/draft?league=100#current

(No, I will not provide you with a kajillion links. The key for each of these picks is (Team, pick number); you can find them yourself. Open another window or something.)


Best draft:

Because I am enamored with Dave Corfield, I'm going to say Mexico City had the best draft. Richard Lawrence is a fine second rounder, Carlton Day made my list and Mike Griffin and Tom Valentine are not un-useful players, but really this is all about Corfield.



Honorable Mention:


I like Jacksonville's draft, with Best, McIntyre, and Jude Stephens second best, probably. I think San Fernando and Sacramento straight crushed it; they show up a few times on this list. Brooklyn could end up a big winner taking Chris McFadden in the 20s. New Orleans, as always, has a bunch of interesting picks. I don't think there were any LOSERS in this draft, either, so I'm gonna say the league gets honorable mention. Good job, league.




Best value picks (in order of selection number):

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SP Dave Corfield (Mexico City, 7): Let’s get rid of the 20-80 ratings for a second. Forget they exist. You have the opportunity to draft a fully formed 21 year old lefty with the highest rated stuff in the draft, one of the better movement ratings, solid control, and unlike everyone else at the top of the draft he’s rated durable. Does he go #2 for you after Cano? Is he #1? Am I actually jealous? Should I get over this? Maybe not. For me Corfield was the unquestionable #1 pick in the draft and I really don’t understand how the game’s assessed him; that must be the lowest possible 7 movement and 8 control rating.

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C Sloth Fratelli and OF Unen Ploid (San Fernando, 13; Sacramento, 14): I don’t know that Fratelli is an 80 prospect, though I happen to think that Ploid is for sure; there’s little doubt both are hard 70+. This is the flip side of drafting fully developed pitchers; sometimes you stand around with a bird in your hand while there’s two in the bush. (Yes, TWSS.)

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CF Chris McFadden (Brooklyn, 23): OK, I’ll admit, I have my doubts about McFadden, who is very underdeveloped for his age. But he’s still only 21 years old. He also wasn’t a top ten pick; there’s no way he makes this list if he is. If in three years he looks like Mike Brodt, I’ll feel a little stupid, but if he makes it by 24 or 25 years old he’s got a chance to have a really nice major league career.

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SP Eric Whitehead (Calgary, 30): I like Whitehead, who really is just kind of too good a pitcher to be considered average, and I think if he had just a little more stamina he’d have been drafted ten spots higher.

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RP/SP Lonnie Bernard (Portland, 41): The thing I like most about Bernard is that he’s got a reasonable chance of taking a starter conversion and making something out of it. Bernard has excellent stuff while not throwing especially hard, so the velocity might not cut into his primary pitches. He’s a groundballer and has good intangibles. He’d probably also make a good reliever.

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SP Jimmy Huggins (Atlantic City, 49): Huggins is an interesting multi-pitch starter who should take well to a reliever conversion if the starter thing doesn’t work out. Great intangibles. Good velocity for a teenager. Lefty. Solid second round bargain.

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SS Marcello Custello (Sacramento, 53): Reportedly, Marcello Custello is a really mellow fellow who plays a yellow cello and will always bellow hello to all the fellow fellows. He’s also a potential starting shortstop fourteen picks into the second round, which makes him a pretty good grab at that point in the draft.

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CF Jared Boll (New Orleans, 65): Boll is not going to be a superstar center fielder unless he either improves his bat or his glove, but he’s clearly a starting center fielder in this league. He might end up with holes against lefties but his glove should keep him out there most of the time.

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CF/OF Jeremiah Moss (Edmonton, 69): Moss doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he’s a solid pick at this point in this draft. Probably has more value as a center fielder than a corner outfielder, but he probably has the all-around game to play a corner spot.

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1B/DH Danny Adkins (Rockville, 70): Adkins is a potential 7-7-7-7-7 player, of which there are only 13 in the BBA. It’s no guarantee of success, but it’s the sort of thing that easily makes my bargain list at this point in the draft, even if he obviously can’t field. Maybe only needs one of those ratings to pop to become a legit starter; might be one anyway.

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C Clinton Tyler (Boise, 78): Tyler is a potential starting platoon catcher in the S1 round, in a draft with several starting catchers. But he’s a really good pick. He’s well developed for an 18 year old, has okay defensive ratings and appears to have a significant platoon factor, which is a nice plus for a catcher.

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SP John Renny (Rockville, 81): Sometimes I think I write this column just to say “Hey look at me! I got bargains over here. Baaaargains.” Except that Renny is a legit starting pitching prospect at the end of the first round who’s comparable to guys picked twenty and thirty picks earlier, so yeah, he qualifies.

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CF Miguel Rodriguez (Las Vegas, 90): This might be a little bit of a reach, but Rodriguez is better than the players picked around him, and that’s my criteria. He can hit a little and field a little; he might end up as a corner OF.

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LF Eli James (Louisville, 106): Eli James may have some serious problems putting a bat on a baseball at times, but the scout rating to me is a little bit of a potential tip-off that James might be a little bit better against righties than I think, or has some untapped potential there. He’s also a little better than players around him, and you’ll notice the gaps have gotten a little bigger here.

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SP/RP conversion Chet McVurie (Vancouver, 124): I like McVurie for a lot of reasons: he throws relatively hard, he’s got a huge assortment of pitches, and scouts like him. He’s durable and has good intangibles. But mostly I like him because if he doesn’t work out as a starter, I think this guy could be a really epic reliever conversion. Good get in Round 4.

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RP Peter Sanders (Louisville, 124): Sanders is a player who could definitely benefit from a reliever conversion. He already throws hard and he’s a fastball/slider guy, so his stuff stands to go potentially stratospheric with a legit conversion. He’s not a bad pick as is, though it will be interesting to see just HOW homer-prone he is.

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3B Bill Scarborough (Boise, 165): Scarborough’s fair. (Like you didn’t know the parsing sage would get there in thyme.) I suppose I could have also gone with a “Morning Bill” joke, which presumably is what you pay for your morning joe. He’s the sort of player that you could imagine using as a platoon backup or a very desperate starter.

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1B Nick Stevenson (Chicago, 176): Stevenson gets a little bit of a boost from me because he’s a potentially usable, solid fielding first baseman who’s well developed for 19 years old. He also has horrendous intangibles, but he’s a good get at the spot.

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Worst value picks (in order of selection number):

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As mentioned, this is the first ever time that this section is empty. I could point to some picks outside the first round, but I just can’t figure out a way to make a big deal out of any of the picks in the middle of the round. I think they all have merit.

I’m sorry, I really am. I know you rely on me to roast you. But in this case we come to praise Caesar, not bury him.

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Keep an eye on:
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CF Hector Cano, Jr (El Paso, 1): See, I don’t think Cano’s a bust at this pick. (Some of you were probably expecting him to headline Section 2, not 3.) What I do think is that Cano is either a great pick or a lousy one. If he develops completely he’s a lefty version of Aaron Haney, and that’s a perennial All-Star. But if you read my first article, you might have noticed there were literally ten fully developed pitchers right after Cano. Like Cano, Nigel Laverick took a big swing on his way to the UMEBA.

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RP Todd Stone (Madison, 11): If Todd Stone is as highly regarded as a starting pitcher as he is, on the 20-80 scale, Stone is probably a 95 as a reliever. His college career was, for lack of a better word, lit. But he’s more interesting to me than bargain; what IS this guy’s ceiling?

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RP Edward Johnson (Rockville, 33): Johnson is intriguing to me because he makes for a fascinating challenge pick for people around him because of his massive groundball ability, and also because Rockville picked him over more developed players and I hear they can use pitching. But he does have an absurdly high ceiling.

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IF Ski Melillo (Long Beach, 38): Melillo is an interesting player. The problem I have with him is that he’s a player without a position. You can’t put him at first base, because um, no. You might not be able to use him at second base; we’ve seen a lot of players with Melillo’s modest mechanics crash and burn at the pivot. He can’t hit homers OR doubles and won’t draw a walk much. So how could Melillo be valuable? Well, I guess he’d have to hit .340. Even though he’s a righty. You see how he almost was the only person in Section 2.

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P Dave Ferrell (Madison, 50): So how does a guy like this even happen? Like, seriously, how? He knows he gets winded after 30 pitches but tries to throw four or five of them anyway? And what do you do with him? He’s not a closer; according to the scouts he’s barely adequate as a reliever. Except that if you took a guy with this guy’s abilities and gave him some stamina he’s probably a #2 starter. Do you use this guy as a two-inning opener? So what is this guy? We’ll see, if he develops, of course.

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OF/1B/nope? Israel Camacho (Charm City, 56): Camacho’s bears the name of the Holy Land, and so does his swing. His swing has more holes than the Albert Hall (see notes on Scarborough, Bill). This guy reminds me of Domenic Wyatt or Weaver Ripley a little bit being good powerhitting CFs who can’t do anything else, and those guys were 3 WAR players in their prime or higher, so hmmmmmm.

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3B Stan Seymour (Montreal, 59): Seymour could potentially play almost every position on the diamond and be valuable even if he hit two homers a season (or none!) so he’s interesting to me. Also not quite a sure enough thing for me to lay a bargain label on him, since, like, I don’t know what his position is and the scouts don’t like him, but he’s interesting.

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RP Jorge Diaz (Louisville, 63): Not all of these are fireworks. Solid reliever, might benefit from a conversion. I like him, but he’s not a bargain.

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SP Clay Bingham (Chicago, 68): The poster boy for “crafty lefty.” He’s already 21 and probably won’t gain velocity, and even if he did the amount he’d gain probably wouldn’t matter. He looks like my guy, Dwight Dunn, until you notice that Dunn throws 97 and has five pitches.

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3B Anthony Moretti (Charm City, 77): Powerhitting third baseman that I don’t like enough to put on my bargains list, but who could hit 30 homers with a swing holier than the Houses of the Holy. (see the comments on Camacho, Israel). Holllley.

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P Gary Owens (El Paso, 83): Showing you how quickly things might turn, Owens’ star has fallen quite a bit this year; he looked like maybe a bargain and quickly became not that.

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SP Luke Jackson (Charlotte, 87): Jackson isn’t a straight up bargain because he’s not necessarily a major leaguer, but he throws hard for a teenager, has a nice assortment of pitches and is a lefty, so he might be a major leaguer if he steps it up a bit.

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SP Carlton Day (Mexico City, 89): Scouts don’t like Day because his pitches float like a butterfly, but at least two of them sting like a bee. (Apparently branching out from 60’s music.) Plus he’s a VERY developed 17 year old. If this guy gains some velocity he might be pretty good.

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SP Tim Gibbs (Vancouver, 91): Another guy who I think could be better than this if he gains some velocity, but who for right now projects as a 4A player.

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UT Jesse Peterson (Madison, 93): Peterson might end up backing up everyone on Madison’s roster, and could potentially be a third-rate starting shortstop.

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2B Kevin Mann (Twin Cities, 98): Behold the fully grown Mann. You could do a lot worse in Round 3 than this guy, but despite some interesting skills he might never hit his weight.

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OF Fred McLane (Charm City Jimmies, 99): The things I like best about McLane are that he’s 19, he’s a lefty, and he’s already showing some platoon factor. This guy’s swing is holier than Justin Bieber’s belief in his girl. (I believe Bieber will be popular in the 2060s.)

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SP Roberto Diaz (Nashville, 101): Like Carlton Day, scouts don’t like this guy but he looks okay. Ya never know I guess.

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2B Woody Baker (New Orleans, 108): Baker might be an infielder and he might be an outfielder and he might be a career minor leaguer. So he’s one of those.


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OF Juan Lizarazo (Chicago, 111): Other famous Lizarazos: Yuliana, who has a career-high singles ranking of 335, Alfonso, who directed the “El Festival Internacional Del Humor,” Carlos, who is a Colombian soccer player. And you thought there could be only Juan. (Self-respect dictates you should stop reading now.) This one could be a major leaguer; it’s just that in his current incarnation he won’t be a very good one, probably.

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RP David Wade (Rockville, 113): Wade almost made my bargains list since he might have been the best player on the board at the time, but he’s also just an average reliever. Might benefit from some velocity.

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OF Bob Taylor (El Paso, 116): Also almost made my bargains list, and I suspect he would if I knew he could be a third baseman. If he is, great pick. If not, probably roster filler.

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SS Gustavo Robles (Madison, 126): I think that Monsieur Simon might be my new Tyler, because while I don’t think any of his picks were outright bargains he’s made list 3 in Rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4. Robles is a lefty hitting shortstop with a clue, which makes him someone worth watching.

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SP/RP Carlton Whitney (Charm City, 132): Is there such a thing as a poor man’s Chet McVurie (pick 124)? I’d be intrigued to see if this guy could play if he got a reliever conversion.

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SP/RP Kevin Davis (Montreal, 135): Davis is another potential reliever conversion, especially since that 4 kinda feels like a high 4. He’d throw 100 MPH with one, or better if he gets some velocity naturally.

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SS Jesus Diaz (Chicago, 144): I’m not sure I believe that Jesus Diaz is almost an average major leaguer, whatever the scouts are trying to tell me. It’s like George Carlin said: think of the average anything and then remember that half of people are worse than that guy. Diaz does get some brownie points for being a lefty, but c’mon.

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C Scott Phipps (Yellow Springs, 147): Similarly, I dunno about Phipps. He’s 6’ 4” and 190 pounds, and if he hits his own weight in any single year of his career in AAA I’d be fascinated to see how. If he gets his bat on the ball it goes a long way, but his swing is holier than Pius IX. (That was the Pope in the 1860s.)

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SP/RP Zach Davis (San Fernando, 160): Might be slightly better than the scouts say, though I’d be scared as hell to use him in San Fernando. Might benefit from a reliever conversion or a velocity bump or both.

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SP Ralph Sanders (Sacramento, 161): Isn’t this guy roster filler, Weiner? Yeah, but he’s BETTER roster filler than the people around him. He’s only 19 years old and I feel like if he gained some velocity he might be a potential major leaguer, but you can tell we’re reaching the end here.

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As always, some players who were expected to succeed will fail in this draft, and some players who you've never heard of and aren't mentioned anywhere here will exceed their owner's wildest dreams. Therein lies the fun.


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[Dington]

SS Marcello Custello (Sacramento, 53): Reportedly, Marcello Custello is a really mellow fellow who plays a yellow cello and will always bellow hello to all the fellow fellows. He’s also a potential starting shortstop fourteen picks into the second round, which makes him a pretty good grab at that point in the draft.

Nice. Glad Nashville didn't have any bonehead picks this year.

[aaronweiner]

It's the first year I haven't had a section 2.

[Joshua Biddle]

Nice write up, as usual

[CTBrewCrew]

....time to update my sig again.... . Great job again, yes Peterson is all over my R team now...hitting above .325 also. I like utility guys...

[StormZ_23]

Woah I don't appreciate the Mike Brodt slander, even though it's warranted

[aaronweiner]

Woah I don't appreciate the Mike Brodt slander, even though it's warranted

Just trying to keep the Brodt streak alive.

[Dington]

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SP Roberto Diaz (Nashville, 101): Like Carlton Day, scouts don’t like this guy but he looks okay. Ya never know I guess.

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Scouts must've known he was gonna tear his UCL.