BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

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BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:34 am

Every year when the much anticipated Brewster Baseball Association Media guide hits the web I rush out to see where my Montreal Blazers are predicted to finish in the upcoming season. Before the 2045 season the BBA Media Guide picked the Blazers to win just 81 games and, for the 11th consecutive season, miss the BBA playoffs. After an exciting season that saw the Blazers win 91 games and challenge for the Atlantic Division title I began to wonder...do those guys at the BBA Media Guide even know what they are doing? Are they just throwing darts at a wall to get their predictions? Are they held accountable for their slanderous predictions? The answer is a thunderous NO...until now!

In this league feature we will follow the BBA teams by month recording and discussing where each team is in relation to the BBA Media Guide predictions. What you will see is the team, the prediction, the previous month ending win percentage, the pace following the month, and the difference between the pace and the prediction.
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I know it's early, small sample size, blah blah blah! Only nine of the 32 BBA teams are within a +/- 5 games of the predictions. Six of the 32 teams are an outrageous +/- 20 games or more outside of the predictions. Nashville is on pace for just 42 wins compared to an 83 win prediction. Consider that Nashville has won at least 71 games for ten consecutive seasons and you have to give the Media Guide guys a break on this one. No one could see this collapse coming. On the flip side Seattle has averaged 84 wins over the past two seasons but for some reason they were given a 77 win prediction. Currently they are calling BULLSH*T on that and are on pace for 108 wins, a league best +31 of their prediction.

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds throughout the season. How many teams will slide back to their prediction or how many will run away from it, good or bad? It is extremely difficult to make these predictions at the start of a season. Things happen during a year that can not be foreseen such as trades and injuries. The guys over at the media guide do a great job and in reality I'd consider any team +/- 10 games to be accurate. After one month of the season that would include over half the BBA(19 teams) so that is an incredible amount.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by aaronweiner » Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:58 am

Seattle is getting some unforeseeable numbers from their offense, and have played 16 of their 30 games against Valencia, Portland, Nashville, and Vancouver (going 13-3 in those games; 8-6 in all other games), and I'm being charitable too: they've only played one series against a playoff team from last year, and they lost that one. They're due for a crash any day now, but they could beat their prediction. Seattle is the team that gives me more headaches than any other for some unknown reason too.

Nashville has played 25 games against Chicago, Yellow Springs, Louisville, San Fernando, Omaha and Twin Cities, and the aforementioned Seattle. But they did have those two winning series against Madison and Des Moines. They're not going to be epically bad either and their expected record is already a head-shaking -5, which is obscene after a month. Wait for them to play the Frontier.

Chicago doesn't surprise me at all. San Fernando either, though they've gotten lucky. Or Sacramento, though I wouldn't expect them to be this good all year.

Oh, and it took until June last year for Yellow Springs to wake up and then they ran a sword through the whole Frick League. So there's that.

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by RonCo » Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:55 am

Hey, this is going to be fun.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by JimBob2232 » Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:05 pm

Well....something smalls like Garbage. And its not just on Bourbon street...

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:01 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:55 am
Hey, this is going to be fun.
It's all in fun
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2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:22 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:58 am

Nashville has played 25 games against Chicago, Yellow Springs, Louisville, San Fernando, Omaha and Twin Cities, and the aforementioned Seattle. But they did have those two winning series against Madison and Des Moines. They're not going to be epically bad either and their expected record is already a head-shaking -5, which is obscene after a month. Wait for them to play the Frontier.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by crobillard » Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:23 am

Hate it. Hopefully we can bounce back. We've been in this position before.

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May Results

Post by HerbD » Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:34 pm

The big movers after May were Boise and New Orleans. With a prediction of 84 wins the Spuds were on 100 win pace after April but have come back down to earth and at the conclusion of May they were on pace for 85 wins, just one off the Media Guide Prediction. New Orleans moved the other way with a 20 win swing in their pace. With an 85 win prediction the Crawdads were on a miserable 60 win pace after the first month. They are edging closer to the prediction finishing May on an 80 win pace. Seattle, San Fernando, and Montreal remain high while Nashville and Edmonton remain low. Charm City, Louisville, and Portland are now, after May, considered high after moving from a single digit positive to a double digit positive.

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Montreal Blazers(BBA) 2044~2047(353-295, .545 W%)
2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by aaronweiner » Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:08 pm

Pretty sure Nashville's done for, so that's something.

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by Dington » Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:36 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:08 pm
Pretty sure Nashville's done for, so that's something.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by 7teen » Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:39 am

Just stay in the green!
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:00 pm

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The good news for the BBA Media guide predictors is that every month the number of teams in the yellow increases. Those are the teams that are +/-5 games from the original predictions. We've gone from nine teams after April to 11 teams after May and now a jump to 14 teams after June. If we increase two to three teams per month then we should have over 20 teams in the yellow at season's end. That would be an incredible feat.

The big movers for the month of June were Calgary and Valencia although they went in different directions. After a horrible start to the season the Stars were on pace to win just 46 games after two months against a prediction of 60 wins. After a June that saw them finish 15-12 they are now on pace for 60 wins exactly. Calgary has been up and down all season. They were predicted to win 92 games but they've ended their months on pave for 84, 91, and now 77 wins for a game drop. That's what an 8-19 month will do for you. Hawaii, Phoenix, Rockville, and San Antonio have been in the yellow all three months this season.
Montreal Blazers(BBA) 2044~2047(353-295, .545 W%)
2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:33 pm

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What we learn at the end of July is the teams that were way above their projections are slowly moving back to the expected win total. No one is on pace to win more than 15 games above their projection with just two months to go. Three fewer teams are in the yellow as Rockville and Hawaii have moved to green and Omaha has dropped to red. Nashville continues to improve incrementally while Edmonton and Long Beach seem content with proving the Media Guide predictors knew nothing about their teams.
Montreal Blazers(BBA) 2044~2047(353-295, .545 W%)
2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:47 am

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With just one month left in the 2046 season you can see there are a season high 21 teams +/-10 games of the Media Guide projection. Portland jumps into the top spot pushing to +16, just one ahead of an over achieving Seattle. Long Beach, in what can only be described as frustrating for their management, has dropped to -30 on pace for just 58 wins. Rockville jumped to +9 after a great July but an 11-17 August puts them back to +1.
Montreal Blazers(BBA) 2044~2047(353-295, .545 W%)
2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by HerbD » Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:24 pm

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Montreal Blazers(BBA) 2044~2047(353-295, .545 W%)
2045 Wildcard(lost in one round)
2046 Atlantic Champs(lost in one round)

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by lordtoffee » Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:02 pm

That's very interesting to see how the predictions panned out.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by JimBob2232 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:56 pm

Yup. Garbage.

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by 7teen » Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:09 am

Do we get a trophy?

Nice to see that Portland outperformed the predictors.
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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by aaronweiner » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:52 am

So I did the math on this. For the JL, we get an average number of games off at 8.75, which is within my margin of error; I usually think of it as a normal curve for each record with a standard deviation around 5, so my 95% confidence interval is + or - 10 games.

So I was within my margin of error on 11 of 16 predictions, and if you read the previews, you'll note that I've given a lot of leeway on my Seattle and Louisville records (and Louisville's Pyth record is really close to where I had them).

As for my legit misses, I have no idea what happened to Long Beach. Portland's Pythagorean record is in my margin of error and they somehow finished 11th in offense with under 10 WAR offensively. Nashville basically played where I had them after a weird early season malaise.

I'm happy.

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Re: BBA Media Guide 2046 Predictions: Fact, Fiction, or Garbage?

Post by CTBrewCrew » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:24 pm

aaronweiner wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:52 am
So I did the math on this. For the JL, we get an average number of games off at 8.75, which is within my margin of error; I usually think of it as a normal curve for each record with a standard deviation around 5, so my 95% confidence interval is + or - 10 games.

So I was within my margin of error on 11 of 16 predictions, and if you read the previews, you'll note that I've given a lot of leeway on my Seattle and Louisville records (and Louisville's Pyth record is really close to where I had them).

As for my legit misses, I have no idea what happened to Long Beach. Portland's Pythagorean record is in my margin of error and they somehow finished 11th in offense with under 10 WAR offensively. Nashville basically played where I had them after a weird early season malaise.

I'm happy.
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