Johnson league Minor League Organizations Ranking

Beat articles, power rankings, statistical analysis, etc. goes here.
allenciox
Ex-GM
Posts: 350
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:23 pm
Has thanked: 98 times
Been thanked: 144 times

Johnson league Minor League Organizations Ranking

Post by allenciox » Sat Mar 06, 2021 11:21 am

Ok, yesterday I analyzed the Frick league Minor League Organizations Ranking, now I have done the same for the Johnson league. Please see that post for information about how these ratings are derived.

Here is the result for the Atlantic League:
75+70656055504540'<4075+70656055504540'<40Tot
15106.54210.50.250.17.553.3210.50.30.20.07Pts
NO321491217892343289.0
CCJ7817261071227761.8
ATC112292199141557.0
MTL59163368461545.5
RCK11161215702871544.1
JAX26224161211121143.3
CHA13131155124127.9
BRK9177713018.7
Total144419431101816261002451638236387.1
and for the Frontier league, as well as totals across all of BBA:
75+70656055504540'<4075+70656055504540'<40Tot
15106.54210.50.250.17.553.3210.50.30.20.07Pts
MEX121471719107124122379.6
BOI148102886111011564263.4
CLG2172431841114182162.3
LV1133132383127133652.7
SA1431318771111846.9
EDM214151261111442043.0
ELP14201811111122537.5
PHX122141871271431.5
Total1227203511517074542304122553199416.8
Total All811222768146423712279062862043911598021679.234
% all0.2%0.3%0.5%0.6%1.6%3.5%10.1%16.9%66.3%0.5%0.2%0.7%0.5%1.8%3.8%8.0%14.0%70.5%
per team0.250.340.690.842.14.613.222.387.20.20.10.30.20.61.32.85.025.1
Note the three new rows at the bottom: from the "Total All" row, we can see that there are 8 non-RPs in all of BBA with 75+ (plus 4 RPs), etc. The "% all row" indicates the percentage of all qualifying players that correspond to each of the POTs, and the "per team" row shows the number of each averaged across all teams (so each team has about 0.25 non-RPs that are 75+ POT).

Now when we look at tiers, there are some that don't fit in to the tiers listed for the Frick division, and so I have denoted those below as 4.5 (between 4 and 5) and a tier 6 for the team with the least minor league potential.

Tier 1: New Orleans (89 pts) fits in tier 1 along with Portland and Des Moines from the Frick. New Orleans had six straight playoff teams before sliding just a little last season (still finishing with a winning record). This is another "miracle" team, as how is it possible for a team have such potential remaining in the wings after such a winning run? This suggests that their success in the future is all but assured.

Tier 2: Mexico City (70.6) joins this tier along with Yellow Springs and Sacramento from the Frick. This is a team of past glory that has tanked in recent years while undergoing a rebuild. It looks like their rebuild is coming along very nicely, and they are primed to return to that glory in the future.

Tier 3: The Johnson adds three more teams to tier 3 to go along with Vancouver and Nashville from Frick: Boise (63.4), Calgary (62.3) and Charm City (61.8). Boise was an expansion team in 2035, and has been pretty good since 2041, being in the playoffs three of the last five years. Calgary has been in the playoffs five of the last seven years, and Charm City has been roughly a .500 ball club for a number of years now.

Tier 4: Atlantic City (57) and Las Vegas (52.7) join the four teams from Frick in the "middling" tier. Atlantic City has not really distinguished itself in recent years, and Las Vegas is undergoing a rebuild --- one which may still have some time to finish.

Tier 4.5: As I noted in the Frick review, there was a big gap between tier 4 and tier 5. Well, that gap has been filed by (count 'em!) five teams in Johnson: San Antonio (46.9), Montreal (45.5), Rockville (44.1), Jacksonville (43.3), and Edmonton (43). This is a mix of inconsistent teams and teams like Rockville and Edmonton that have been consistent top playoff teams for years now.

Tier 5: Joining six teams from Frick in this tier are three teams in Johnson: El Paso (37.5), Phoenix (31.5), and Charlotte (27.9). Charlotte might even fit in an even lower tier as it is substantially below the other teams in this tier. None of these teams have distinguished themselves in recent years, and they don't look poised for a rebound any time soon.

Tier 6: Our first tier 6 team is Brooklyn (18.7), an inconsistent team who doesn't have a single under-26 yo players in the minors with a potential rated over 45 (replacement level).

Some notes:

1. When we rank the systems by division, it comes out: 1) Heartland, 2) Pacific, 3) Frontier, 4) Atlantic. But there are both high and low prospect teams in every division.

2. Across all teams, the "average" team has only slightly more than one non-RP player with a potential of 65 or greater, and about four non-RP candidates with a potential rated 55 or higher, along with about one and a half RPs with potential 55 or higher.

3. The "median" (50th percentile) teams for prospects are Chicago (51.4, my team!) and Louisville(51.2), both tier 4 teams from the Heartland, while the mean is just a bit higher, at 52.5 points.

4. Across all thirty-two teams' minor league prospects, only 6.7% of the non-relief pitchers and about 7.5% of the relief pitchers are projected to have an OVR above 45, or what I would currently consider to be "replacement level" in the BBA. Though there are some good prospects in this draft that might increase that ratio some, that does suggest that the league might be facing some degradation over coming years, unless a number of these prospects turn out better than expected. We might also pick up some free agents from UMEBA after four to five more years that have become too expensive for those teams once some of the outstanding draft picks from 2044 and 2045 get to free agency.

Return to “League Features”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests