Initial analyses from 2045 BBA Season Statistics

[allenciox]

At the end of last season, after the playoffs, I exported, separately for both BBA and UMEBA :

1. All the ratings (pitching & fielding) for all the pitchers
2. All the ratings (hitting & fielding) for all the batters
3. All the statistics (pitching & fielding) for all the pitchers for 2045, overall, and with the following splits:
a. Home, away
b. vL, vR
c. Starter, relief
4. All the statistics (batting & fielding) for all the batters for 2046, overall, and with the following splits:
a. Home, away
b. vL, vR


I then made a spreadsheet for BBA and UMEBA where I created separate tabs for each of those categories. Since I work at SAS and am familiar with SAS coding, I have imported each of those tabs (so far, just for BBA) into SAS data sets to begin analyzing the data.

Eventually, I want to do a thorough statistical analysis of all the data to do the best job I can of predicting WAR, OBA, ERA, FIP, BsR, ZR, etc. for each player. I plan on doing a series of posts as I do the analyses of the results of what I find. But for now, I just want to report some of the overall statistics that I have already gotten from the data.

So here is that post, for BBA, with some of these initial findings below:

1. There were a total of 638 separate batters (about 19.9 per team) and 584 separate pitchers (about 18.2 per team) in the data: i.e. players that spent some time on major league roster.
2. Starting Pitchers faced 61.1% of all batters, leaving 38.9% for relievers.
3. For batters, percentage of time they faced right-handed pitchers based on handedness: 78.3% RvR, 64% LvR, 69.2% SvR
4. For pitchers, percentage of time they faced batters batting righty based on handedness, and starting vs. relief: 83.5% St_LvR, 54.6% St_RvR, 77.6% Rel_LvR, 67.7% Rel_RvR. That 54.6% St_RvR was larger than I expected, and suggests there is less platooning going on than I expected.

Here are various stats, weighted by BF (batters faced) for pitchers based on their splits:

split	era	fip	ops	babip	bb_9	k_9	hr_9	go_	WAR	rWAR
away	5.07	5.12	.799	.297	3.52	7.18	1.51	0.51	0.58	0.70
home	4.59	4.46	.755	.303	3.41	8.50	1.29	0.51	1.08	1.05
ovr	4.79	4.77	.777	.300	3.44	7.85	1.40	0.51	1.62	1.70
rel	4.47	4.49	.753	.301	3.87	9.28	1.36	0.51	0.81	0.89
strt	5.01	4.95	.791	.299	3.18	6.94	1.43	0.50	2.07	2.20
vL	5.28	5.13	.813	.308	3.76	7.96	1.61	0.50	0.50	0.46
vR	4.44	4.53	.747	.293	3.25	7.75	1.25	0.51	1.07	1.24

Here are various stats for batters, weighted by PA (plate appearances) against different splits:

split	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	OPS	BABIP	ZR
away	0.256	0.327	0.429	0.320	0.755	0.302	0.241
home	0.268	0.339	0.460	0.337	0.800	0.296	0.257
ovr	0.262	0.333	0.444	0.328	0.777	0.299	0.249
vL	0.253	0.323	0.429	0.318	0.751	0.290	---
vR	0.266	0.337	0.451	0.333	0.788	0.303	---

Finally, here are the batter stats, against different splits but also based on how the batter bats (L, R, or S):

split	B	avg	obp	slg	wOBA	OPS	BABIP
away	L	0.265	0.337	0.454	0.332	0.791	0.310
away	R	0.248	0.318	0.408	0.309	0.726	0.296
away	S	0.259	0.333	0.439	0.327	0.772	0.305
home	L	0.277	0.352	0.488	0.352	0.841	0.302
home	R	0.262	0.330	0.441	0.327	0.771	0.292
home	S	0.262	0.337	0.447	0.331	0.784	0.293
ovr	L	0.271	0.344	0.471	0.342	0.815	0.306
ovr	R	0.255	0.324	0.424	0.318	0.748	0.293
ovr	S	0.261	0.335	0.443	0.329	0.778	0.299
vL	L	0.241	0.298	0.390	0.293	0.687	0.293
vL	R	0.261	0.334	0.447	0.330	0.781	0.291
vL	S	0.244	0.320	0.425	0.316	0.745	0.276
vR	L	0.280	0.357	0.494	0.355	0.852	0.310
vR	R	0.252	0.318	0.411	0.311	0.729	0.295
vR	S	0.268	0.342	0.451	0.335	0.793	0.309

So, let me know if you want a copy of the spreadsheets I made (I already sent one to RonCo). As I said, expect more analyses to come out in the coming weeks. Also, post here if there is anything in these results so far that you find surprising. I will start by throwing out a few questions for discussion:

1. Left-handed batters have been the best hitters, with right-handers trailing the pack. Why?
2. Starting pitchers have averaged over a half run in ERA more than relievers. That is a lot. Does this mean that teams would fare better to have a greater percentage of batters faced by relievers instead of starters?
3. Strikeouts and home runs seem to show the biggest difference for pitchers when considering home/away splits, while BABIP and walks hardly shifts at all. Is this surprising?
4. Left-handed batters have an amazing 62 (or .062) points difference in wOBA depending on whether they are facing left-handed or right-handed pitching, while right-handed batters have only show 19 (or .019) points difference, or exactly the same difference as switch hitters, just in the opposite direction. Does this mean it is more important to do platoons when your best player for a position is left-handed? And based on 1. above, should teams be searching for good lefty hitters to increase the number of platoons they do?

Other thoughts? Also let me know if there is anything that you especially want to know from the data.

[jleddy]

1. Left-handed batters have been the best hitters, with right-handers trailing the pack. Why?

This has been discussed several times before

2. Starting pitchers have averaged over a half run in ERA more than relievers. That is a lot. Does this mean that teams would fare better to have a greater percentage of batters faced by relievers instead of starters?

I think this is a result of the relief ace boom across the league, where very talented relievers are eating up a lot of innings in dominating fashion. Also the rise in strikeouts, which has been seen more in RP than SP, is likely a factor. This is an offensive league where lesser starting pitchers, who are run out for 4 to 6 brutal innings, are likely bumping up the ERA amongst all starters, while teams with one or two stud stoppers/closers and putting up microscopic ERA.

4. Left-handed batters have an amazing 62 (or .062) points difference in wOBA depending on whether they are facing left-handed or right-handed pitching, while right-handed batters have only show 19 (or .019) points difference, or exactly the same difference as switch hitters, just in the opposite direction. Does this mean it is more important to do platoons when your best player for a position is left-handed? And based on 1. above, should teams be searching for good lefty hitters to increase the number of platoons they do?

See #1.

[recte44]

These are long standing patterns.