Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

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Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by RonCo » Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:51 am

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The first week off the off-season always brings a scattering of emotions. Yes, the season is over and long-live the new kings. But there are new beginnings stirring, too. Unlike for fans, who pack away the regalia of the current season and go into the fallow lands of hibernation as they await next year’s spring training, a General Manager’s job is arguably just starting. Or, rather, the news they’ll have to deal with is just starting to roll in. Specifically, we’re talking player decisions on options they hold.

In that light, it’s perhaps interesting to note that twenty-two players held options this year (actually, twenty-three, but Hector Amaral also had a vesting element that did not execute).

Thirty-one teams held such decisions, too. Today we’re talking about players, though, wo we’ll ignore those.

To get a feel for what’s happened, I grouped the players into four categories, each an element of whether the player should have left, and then whether they did or not. Consider it a 2x2 matrix like a heads and tails table with two tosses.

It looks like this:

OptionsOpted OutOpted In
Should Op OutFeliciano RafaelJoaquin Hebner
Anastasio LópezJesús López
James MongerGipper Kengos
Kevin Morales
Ángel Hernández
---------------------------------------------------------------
Should Opt InRashardo Menne IIINiccolo Machiavelli
Millard YoungerJaime Ramírez
Aki KondoKen Bates
Yi-ke HsiaoJuan Santana
Luis Maldonado
Natanael Barral
Justin Jackson
Alvin Chartrand
Júlio Alicea - R:100%
Leonard Jones

Of course, the primary axis (should a player opt out or not) is subjective. I’ll cover this as I go.

Let’s look at them box-by-box.

Off Topic
Should Opt-Out, Opted Out

There are five players in this camp, guys I felt would benefit from opting out, and eventually chose to. To see why I assessed then as such, let’s take a look at their contract status:
PosNameTeamAge20452046Bonuses
SPFeliciano RafaelCCJ32$20.0m$20.0m(P)200 IP 550K, Neb 750K, AS 200K
LFAnastasio LópezJAX28$16.0m$16.0m(P)550K SS, 110 AS
BJames MongerOMA32$12.2m(O)$12.2m500 PA 2M, 750K SS, 120K AS
SPKevin MoralesTWC33$10.5m$10.5m(P)330K Neb/68K AS
RPÁngel HernándezYS926$2.1m(O)$2.1m$1M/50IP
All five had only one season left on their deals. At thirty-two and thirty-three years of age, Rafael and Morales had to weigh the risks injury while playing out their last year’s deal, vs. the likelihood of hitting next year’s FA market in stronger demand. My guess is that Rafael, in particular, will not see $20M next season (though that’s possible), but may well sign a deal that will give him security for multiple seasons.

Lopez is also of interest in that light. At 28 he’s probably more valuable as a long-term piece, and opting to hit the Free Agent market this year rather than next is perhaps more likely to get a team to be willing to enter into a longer term deal. With several teams looking a little racy in the near future, it at least made sense to us that he would check the market.

It is of note that both Angel Hernandez and James Monger signed follow-on deals with their own clubs.

Monger agreed to a deal that will pay him $16M/$14M/13M with that last year being a mutual vesting and player option. This increased his earnings next year and guaranteed him one more high-salary payday. Hernandez got $4M/$4.25M/$5M, with the last being a mutual option. Both players also received reachable bonus incentives that could add $2M to each season’s earnings. Plus both stay with the club they know and love.
Off Topic
Should Opt-Out, Opted In

Here’s where we get a little dicey with the assumptions of what might be best for the players. Three BBAers opted to stay with their teams when I thought they’d be better off leaving. Let’s look at them:

PosNameTeamAge20452046Bonuses
1BJoaquin HebnerCHI28$3.5m(O)$3.0m400 PA $500K, SS $500K, AS $500K
RPJesús LópezNSH32$4.0m$4.0m(P)None
LFGipper KengosNSH29$3.9m$3.9m(P)550 SS, 140 AS
I should admit that, while I think they were better off leaving, I don’t know that there were really bad decisions for any of them—meaning that none of the three are likely to get “break the bank” kind of deals. All three, however, would seem to be in line to add years to their deals that would be at reasonable rates. Kengos in particular seems eminently employable. Yes, he’s a corner outfielder, but he’s a pretty solid defender and he lives in a world where RHB who can actually hit are in short supply. And while Hebner doesn’t do the homer thing like you’d hope a first baseman might, he’s a Zimmer quality guy there and sports a .400 OBP. At 28, you’d think a team might be tempted to drop him a four season deal, give or take.

Nashville’s Jesus Lopez may be in a similar space. His ratings say someone would pay him, anyway, though to be fair is you’re his representative it might have been wise to keep him in a Bluebird uniform for one more year and see if that 6.44 ERA can come down a bit. Ratings are nice. Ratings on top of performance makes for rich representatives.

Anyway, now all these guys are going to hit the market one year later.
Off Topic
Should Opt-In, Opted Out

So, maybe those guys made mistakes and maybe they didn’t time will tell. Here however, is the category I worry about the most. This is a set of players who had a guaranteed paycheck coming to play professional baseball, and gave it up in hopes of a better deal. They are also guys I worry about actually getting those deals.

Those players are:

PosNameTeamAge20452046204720482049Bonuses
1BRashardo Menne IIICHA29$17.0m$15.0m(P)935 SS, 250 AS
RFMillard YoungerLBC28$10.0m(O)$10.5m$11.0m$11.0m$11.0m(P)650K SS, AS 140K
SPAki KondoPHX31$33.0m(O)$33.0m$30.0m$45.0m(V)$50.0m(P)800K Neb, 190K AS
2BYi-ke HsiaoCCJ29$11.0m(O)$11.0m(T)$11.0m(T)2M BO

This is a pretty diverse set of situations, now, isn’t it. I think they should have all stuck with their situations, though a couple can be argues over.

Menne, in my opinion, is not one of those players. He was due $15M as a 29 year old. He was one of those guys who came into the league with a blast and a pedigree that had everyone yapping, and he got that big contract from Vancouver as a result. But the fact is that his defense is in the drink, and he’s only made about 2.5 WAR over his last four seasons combined. Since he can hit RHP pretty well, he’ll probably get a deal, but I don’t see $15M in his future next year, and I figure he’d be just as valuable next year. Or at least no worst. Of the guys on this list, Menne gets voted “most likely to be out of baseball soon” so I would have taken the cash and run.

In Charm City, Yi-Ke Hsiao was a more interesting situation. I think he should have stayed, but mostly to press GM Brandon Slouck’s hand. Hsaio faded last year, and even spent some time in the minors. Being owed $11M of next year’s cap suggests that the team might well have bought out the Team option part of the deal, which would then have left Hsiao $2M richer and in the same spot. TO be clear, I don’t figure he’ll make $11M either way—though I could be wrong.
He should still be able to play a little second base, anyway.

One can argue Younger could do better by leaving, too. He’s been a solid 3.5-4 WAR kind of guy, and at age 28 should be able to draw some big numbers. But the buzz on him is that he’s likely to struggle in center field going forward, which immediately drops his value, and he was already guaranteed $43M over the next four seasons. The odds of him beating that do exist, but are, IMHO, low. Seems like a lot to risk for little reward.

Of all these, though, the most intriguing is Aki Kondo, who left $63M over two seasons on the table. I say that because it’s obvious to everyone in existence that the $45 and $50 vesting options were never going to get executed. What this decision means in the meta-game is that it is pretty clear that the game engine does pretty much discount such shenanigans in its evaluations (as the development team has suggested). So, adding them probably hurts teams more than it advantages them. Still, at 31 years old and likely heading to free agency in 2048 (at 33), I’m thinking Kondo—while he will probably get both big money and more years—is probably not going to be better off with the deal he gets. Time will, of course, tell.
Off Topic
Should Opt-In, Opted In

This brings us to the last grouping, which are guys I think made good decisions to stay with their club. To put it bluntly, and sorry to say, but these are players that I’m guessing GMs would have been just as happy with if they’d left. So, bottom line, these are all probably pretty good decisions by the players in question.

Those players are:

PosNameTeamAge2045204620472048Bonuses
CFNiccolo MachiavelliCHI30$6.5m$6.5m(P)66K AS
SSJaime RamírezCHI34$4.8m(O)$4.5m(P)None
RPKen BatesCLG33$5.8m(O)$5.8m$500K 150 IP, 64K AS
LFJuan SantanaDM30$9.0m$9.0m(P)SS-$600K, AS $120K
RFLuis MaldonadoELP32$17.0m(O)$19.0m$19.0m$19.0m(T)SS &770K, $110K AS
1BNatanael BarralMAD29$6.0m$6.0m(P)250 AS
LFJustin JacksonMNT31$4.0m(O)$4.0m$4.0m520 PA 1M, SS $1M, AS $1M
SPAlvin ChartrandNSH31$6.5m(O)$6.5m$6.5m(P)$6.5m(T)650 NEB, 68 AS
RPJúlio Alicea - R:100%OMA35$13.0m(O,R)$16m(T)$18M(P)100K - 150 IP, 1.75M Neb, 510K AS
2BLeonard JonesSA28$1.8m$1.8m(P)None
The best of these decisions was that of Julio Alicea, who could have left but chose to stay in order to push GM Justin Niles to pay him to leave. Which Omaha did, writing Alicea a nice $3.95M check to go seek further employment elsewhere.

Other situations are equally joyous to their teams, but perhaps a bit different.

Ken Bates, for example, is injured and will be out all year. From his position the question was “do I want $5.8M, or do I not want $5.8M?” So Calgary will have to pay him to simply become a free agent, or, actually, for the first rights to extend him.

In Des Moines, Juan Santana will make $9M. He’s posted a grand total of .3 WAR over the past three seasons. Luis Maldonado will soak up that El Paso cash to the tune of $19M a year for the next two seasons, and past history says he’ll manage to return about a WAR—though to be fair, he should do better than that. He’ll be thirty-four by the time the team gets to their option, and one assumes that will be a good day in the Chili camp.

Neither Chicago’s Jaime Ramirez and Niccolo Machiavelli have provided positive value for over two seasons, yet both have decided to come back next season (for a combined $11.5M and a never ending stream of fruit baskets. Madison's Natanael Barral hasn't had a positive WAR since 2042, but will get his $6M next year, regardless.

The one player who their team might be happy with here is Nashville’s 31 year old Alvin Chartrand, who comes back at a reasonable salary and has been a steady-Eddy starter who can sit at the back of a rotation, win a few games, and eat a fair number of innings.

At $4M for one more season, Montreal is probably in a null-zone over Justin Jackson’s decision to return. They could probably do something else with the cash, but Jackson has at least not been terribly detrimental, and … who knows … maybe he’ll go off again. Other teams have tried that, anyway.

Leonard Jones is also returning to San Antonio, and at $1.8M his glove makes a not-bad little second baseman, though an upgrade is probably desired.
So, anyway, there’s the rundown of decisions made by BBA players this off-season. As a general rule (and stepping out of player analysis and into game analysis), I think the system has been pretty solid. Guys are generally still making decisions that make some sense—and even those I think got it wrong seem pretty justifiable—I mean, I can see it falling in their favor if market dynamics fall just right.

If I get a chance I’ll scan through the other side of this conversation—team options. But for now, that’s all I’ve got!
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Re: Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by Dington » Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:54 am

I was surprised Kengos, Lopez, and Chartrand all opted in. I expected one or two of them to jump ship and now I've got some trimming to do. Nice article.
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Re: Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:11 pm

the Kondo case is interesting because he will likely beat 63m guaranteed fairly comfortably in his next deal, but then there is the issue of what he would have made in 2 years on the market. I am not sure the game knows this, but the group of guys currently slated to become FA after 2047 is a pretty solid group (albeit most of these guys will probably resign prior to FA).

Alaric Wullenweber
Timo Dooley
Jefferson Pierce
Carlos Valle
Jose Martinez (Opt-out)
James Browning
Norio Hayashi
Jorge Hernandez
Luis Espinosa
In-sung Yi
Jubal Troop (Team Option)
Luis Rojas (Opt-out)
Edwin Gilliam

All of those guys are currently top 51 in the game, a group in which Kondo also finds himself. For reference here is the group this year who meets the same description.

Aki Kondo
Juan Rodriguez
Miguel Ramos
Jerry Pacy
Randy Weigand

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Re: Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by HoosierVic » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:07 pm

You were dead on with your analysis of Ramirez and Machiavelli. I actually released both of them, thanks to Vinnie’s deep pockets. Needless to say, though - no more fruit!

I may re-up with Hebner after 2046. No homers, true, but he’s a useful bat and glove, and the Sox have other sources for the long ball.

Needless to say, another interesting read, Ron!

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Re: Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by GoldenOne » Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:41 pm

Menne should have been voted "Next UMEBA All Star"
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Re: Off-Season 2045: Players Weigh Options

Post by CTBrewCrew » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:17 pm

You were spot on with barrall in Madison- was hoping he left - thought he would - he wasnt playing much or at all - was hoping that would sway him. I guess not 😕
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