How Is Your Over/Under Bet Fairing?

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7teen
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How Is Your Over/Under Bet Fairing?

Post by 7teen » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:31 pm

Earlier today I examined the Landis odds and bets. Now let's take a look at how the Sportsbooks did on predicting the over and under win totals for each team as we've just barely passed the Midway point of the season....

TeamWin TotalBetting MarketTrending
Atlantic City70.51 bet overUnder
Brooklyn851 bet underOver
Boise87.53 bets underClose
Calgary93.51 bet underUnder
Charlotte80.52 bets overClose
Charm City81.50 betsUnder
Edmonton87.52 bets overOver
El Paso642 bets overClose
Jacksonville74.50 betsUnder
Las Vegas64.52 bets overOver
Mexico City700 betsUnder
Montreal810 betsOver
New Orleans890 betsClose
Phoenix87.52 bets underClose
Rockville96.51 bet overClose
San Antonio90.50 betsUnder
Chicago830 betsOver
Des Moines65.52 bets overUnder
Hawaii92.51 bet overOver
Long Beach954 bets underUnder
Louisville86.51 bet underOver
Madison711 bet overOver
Nashville88.50 betsUnder
Omaha85.50 betsOver
Portland630 betsUnder
Sacramento83.51 bet underUnder
San Fernando89.50 betsUnder
Seattle79.52 bets underUnder
Twin Cities84.52 bets overOver
Valencia651 bet overUnder
Vancouver61.52 bets overOver
Yellow Springs109.51 bet underUnder
Some interesting things to note. The Sportsbook did not take any opposing bets in the over and under win totals. So what that means is either the books did a poor job on setting the totals or the bettors all agreed on which side to take. In general, when a large amount of the public leans one way, the Sportsbooks win. But then again, this is no ordinary sportsbook.

There are some interesting bets to watch at the moment. The first is the Boise Spuds. What many don't realize is, the sportsbooks made a typing error in the releasing of the Over and Under. Boise's over and under was supposed to be set at 81.5, not 87.5. This mistake was realized during the taping of a podcast, but was kept a secret because Boise had already been talked about. Sportsbooks left it alone to see if anyone would notice. And the bettors did, as they hammered the under with the second largest betting market in the O/U behind only Long Beach. But the interesting thing to watch now is whether Boise will actually reach that mark. As of right now, Boise's winning percentage correlates to 88.6 wins this season, which means the Spuds would hit the over and catch the bettors off-guard and help cover the Sportsbooks' mistake.

As for the aforementioned Long Beach Surfers, it appears the bettors were all over that one as the defending Landis Runner-Ups are clearly hungover from last year's attempt at a title run. The market gobbled up the under on that one and it appears those bettors will win big. The same can be said in reverse on Las Vegas and Vancouver, two teams who were given extremely low win totals this season but are hovering around the .500 mark, setting themselves up for an easy over in wins.

There were 35 bets submitted on the over and unders. As of now, here is how things are shaping up for the Books and Bettors:

- 6 Bets are trending in favor of the sportsbooks
- 19 Bets are trending in favor of the bettors
- 10 Bets are too close to call at the moment

Depending on how the bets that are too close to call shake out, and how much money was gambled on each bet favoring the betting market, the Sportsbooks may be set up for some big losses in the Over/Under game!

(*note: This could be a classic case too of having a small sample size of "Population" here within the BBA to where there isn't as much an opportunity to get play on both sides. With only 1-4 bets coming in, Vegas wouldn't have had the chance to adjust the lines any to get play on both sides. But still, I find this an interesting experiment.)
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Re: How Is Your Over/Under Bet Fairing?

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:40 am

Nice...but remember the house always wins...


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