Midway Look at Landis Picks and Sportsbook Odds

[7teen]

The All-Star game is just around the corner and with each team now having played approximately 85 games this season, it is safe to say we have reached and are just past the halfway point into the 2045 Regular Season. And with that point of the season reached, we now have a pretty solid sample size to evaluate how the Sportsbook has done on a few of it's odds makings and also evaluate how some of those bettors may be looking at a potential payday come the end of the regular season. In a 3 part series where we break down the Landis Odds, Over and Unders, and Props, let's first take a look at how the Sportsbooks are looking in terms of Landis Odds and how bettors are looking with their bets.

With 32 teams in the league in 2045, we'll break the league down into four tiers and see exactly how Sportsbooks are looking:

Prior to opening day, here were your odds on favorites to win the Landis

Top 10 Favorites

Team	Odds	Bets	Would Odds Increase or Decrease
Yellow Springs	4/1	5 bets worth $70	Stay
San Antonio	5.5/1	0 bets	Decrease
Rockville	5.5/1	1 bet worth $5	Stay
Long Beach	6/1	0 bets	Decrease
Calgary	6/1	1 bet worth $15	Decrease
Hawaii	6.5/1	1 bet worth $10	Stay
Nashville	8/1	1 bet worth $100	Decrease
Twin Cities	8/1	1 bet worth $5	Stay
San Fernando	8/1	1 bet worth $10	Decrease
New Orleans	8.5/1	1 bet worth $10	Stay

First, let's break down the odds. Of these 10 teams listed above 9 of the 10 are at or above .500. Only San Fernando at 8/1 odds is currently under .500 at 41-45. Yellow Springs, Rockville, and Hawaii all sit perched atop their division standings and look pretty comfortable in at least making the post-season. If the Sportsbooks were updating their odds throughout the season, you'd probably see Hawaii's odds improve a little bit, perhaps replacing Long Beach at 6/1 odds as Long Beach, who currently sits in 2nd place in the Pacific, would not make the post-season. The same could potentially be said for San Antonio as last year's champions, currently sitting at 43-42, are not in a post-season spot currently. Bettors would likely see the Outlaws odds rise at this point in the season. Calgary, like San Antonio, would also see it's odds decrease. Sitting just .5 game behind San Antonio in the Frontier Division standings, the Pioneers will need a better second half if they hope to even make it to the post-season.

As for the Heartland teams of Nashville and Twin Cities, the Blue Birds have fought back from a tough start to the season and are at 44-41 though be it not in the post-season spot at the moment. Twin Cities on the other hand, who some felt had odds that weren't worthy, are proving the Sportsbooks evaluation of them correctly in the first half as they're currently hanging onto the final spot.

As for the bets themselves, the sportsbooks find themselves pulling hard for Rockville at the moment. "A Rockville Landis would probably cause the least loss at the books" commented gambling expert Kent Musburger. "Granted there is some potential loss in the prop bets that we'll look at later, but the lower odds and the lack of betting on the Pikemen would cause the least losses. That is of course if you assume San Antonio or Long Beach are no longer contenders. Clearly the books would love for one of them to sneak into winning the title at this point."

Tier 2 Teams

Team	Odds	Bets	Would Odds Increase or Decrease
Louisville	10/1	0 bets	Stay
Edmonton	12/1	5 bets worth $135	Increase
Phoenix	13/1	1 bet worth $10	Stay
Brooklyn	15/1	0 bets	Stay
Omaha	20/1	0 bets	Increase
Boise	25/1	1 bet worth $5	Increase
Sacramento	25/1	1 bet worth $5	Decrease

The tier two teams really show some discrepancy with the oddsmakers. Of the 7 teams listed in tier 2, 5 of them are currently sitting in a post-season spot. So it is very safe to say their odds would likely have gone up slightly to win the Landis at this point. Phoenix, the first team not in a post-season spot, sits 2 games back of making it while Sacramento is 3.5 back despite sitting under .500 in a watered down Pacific division.

Boise and Omaha both sit in 2nd place in their division and look pretty solid at the moment. Both would have likely seen a little bit of a boost to their odds at this point in the season even though the Cyclones didn't get any play from bettors prior to opening day. Both would likely see their odds better than someone like San Fernando who began the season in the top tier of teams.

The one big thorn in the Sportsbook's side here is Edmonton who saw a lot of play from the public. "Bettors were and still are all over the Jackrabbits" commented Kent Musburger. "After some early play, you'd have seen Edmonton's odds really improve as Sportsbooks hoped to hedge a possible Jackrabbits Landis title. With Edmonton having the best record in the Frick, the sportsbooks really dropped the ball on this one and could be set up for big losses if the Jackrabbits win the Landis. It's safe to say Edmonton's odds would be closer to 5/1 at this point. Overall, I think there is some real value in these picks for gamblers."

Tier 3

Team	Odds	Bets	Would Odds Increase or Decrease
Chicago	45/1	0 bets	Increase
Charm City	50/1	0 bets	Stay
Montreal	55/1	0 bets	Increase
Charlotte	60/1	0 bets	Increase
Seattle	60/1	0 bets	Increase
Jacksonville	70/1	0 bets	Decrease
Atlantic City	80/1	0 bets	Decrease
Mexico City	80/1	1 bet worth $5	Decrease
Madison	80/1	0 bets	Increase

Clearly the betting public had 0 faith in this tier of teams. Which is why the Sportsbooks are pulling hard for Chicago and Montreal who have are currently in a post-season spot. The Black Sox are currently the 3rd wild card in the Frick League while the Blazers are tied with New Orleans for the top WC spot in the Johnson. With updated odds, you'd see Chicago and Montreal's odds climb up closer to tier 1 and tier 2 at the moment. Bettors would be scrambling to put a nice chunk of change on both right now hoping for a huge payday.

Madison and Charlotte would also see their odds improve despite not being in a post-season spot at the moment. Both are in the mix and sit in similar situations as Phoenix, San Antonio, and say a Sacramento. Their odds aren't dead, but they're not great. All would likely be lumped into the same odds tier right now.

Charm City would probably see it's odds drop as their chances of a post-season spot are declining sim by sim. Seatte is in a similar spot. The Storm have played better of late but have an uphill battle still left to even make the playoffs. As for Mexico City, Jacksonville, and Atlantic City... Their odds would likely climb to over 100/1 as Sportsbooks try and tempt fans to throw their money away at pipe dream picks.

"You summed this one up well" added Musburger. "If this tier of bets were still open, money would probably pour in on Chicago and Montreal. Those odds would generate some nice payouts if either could claim the Landis. A bettor looking for a huge payday with nice odds would throw some at either of those teams. It's unfortunate for bettors, but a good thing for the books, if one of those two teams could make a run this October."

Tier 4

Team	Odds	Bets	Would Odds Increase or Decrease
Las Vegas	100/1	0 bets	Increase
El Paso	100/1	0 bets	Stay
Des Moines	100/1	0 bets	Stay
Valencia	100/1	0 bets	Stay
Vancouver	150/1	0 bets	Increase
Portland	150/1	0 bets	Decrease

This tier would be larger with an odds update. You'd see those 3 teams in the tier 3 mentioned here now. You'd probably also the see the odds of the Stars go up while the Portland odds would likely be raised to 1,000/1 at this point as the league's worst team stands no chance at winning the Landis in 2045. El Paso's hot start has since faded and Des Moines sits in last in the Heartland.

Vegas is clinging to some hope and might see a slight odds boost and would match up with Charm City at this point in odds but the chances still wouldn't be good.

The one team Sportsbooks really screwed up on is Vancouver. At 42-43 currently, the Mounties have the best record of any of these tier 4 teams despite having the worst odds of winning the Landis. The Mounties still sit two games out of a post-season spot, but at 150/1 odds, some bettors looking for a huge payday may throw some coin their way much like with Chicago and Montreal above in hopes of a huge October run.

[aaronweiner]

Wow, on some of those teams I'd be the only person paid off.

[niles08]

I was actually surprised nobody bet on Omaha after our run last season. I knew we were bad, but I didn't figure we were that bad.

[7teen]

Breaking things down a little bit further for clarification, we had 15 GMs spend some of their "Brewster Bucks" and of those 15, there were 21 Landis Bets. 2 of the GMs who spread some bucks around did not spend any on Landis odds, instead chose to play the O/U and the Prop bets. One GM spent all of his Bucks on Landis odds.

Of those 15, I did not spend any as I was afraid it was unfair and perhaps "insider trading" haha

Like we talked in the Podcast, I'm curious now to see how much the house wins or loses when this is all over with. In real world, I saw the other day where Nevada broke it's own record this month on the amount they won on sports betting.

[crobillard]

I was actually surprised nobody bet on Omaha after our run last season. I knew we were bad, but I didn't figure we were that bad.

I'd bet that a lot more people will throw money on Omaha next season if this feature continues.

[7teen]

I was actually surprised nobody bet on Omaha after our run last season. I knew we were bad, but I didn't figure we were that bad.

I'd bet that a lot more people will throw money on Omaha next season if this feature continues.

I intend to make it a regular for the Media Guide

[Rubaboo]

Aww crap, someone bet on me. Now I gotta be a buyer at the deadline.

[CTBrewCrew]

I was actually surprised nobody bet on Omaha after our run last season. I knew we were bad, but I didn't figure we were that bad.

LOL - you didn't bet on yourself?

[CTBrewCrew]

Do we get to roll our Brewster bucks winners over into next season? Perhaps we get a 3 team teaser next year