You know the deal by now. I go through and pull data on every player in our minor league systems (including international complexes), and simply count the numbers of guys that OOTP says have potential of 40 and higher. Then I weight them all up, and add up all the numbers. Then I rank those numbers, and compare where every team is now against where they’ve been. Pretty simple, right? Remember, though, these are only kids in the minors. As soon as you call up your top prospect, this system ignores him.
In case you care, here are last year’s rankings.
That now covered, let’s get into the situation at hand.
The Overall Picture
It is, perhaps, of particular note that the raw number of prospects in the BBA have grown by something under 22% (354 players) since last year—a majority of which has predictably been in the lower ranks: 270 of the growth is in the 40 and 45 ranks. Some of this is possibly due to our shift to raw ratings—though I think mostly not. My bet is on the big influx of UMEBA draft spillage. Regardless, here are the raw numbers of prospects in or systems as it stands today.
| Year | 80 | 75 | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 | Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-42 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 39 | 54 | 143 | 377 | 675 | 1336 |
| Jul-43 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 28 | 77 | 150 | 448 | 761 | 1513 |
| Jun-44 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 37 | 89 | 176 | 448 | 819 | 1620 |
| Jun-45 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 52 | 101 | 221 | 603 | 933 | 1974 |
If we have a little fun and break the current year out by division, we get:
| Div | 80 | 75 | 70 | 65 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 40 | Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLH | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 176 | 289 | 564 |
| FLP | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 58 | 128 | 209 | 450 |
| JLA | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 63 | 155 | 217 | 489 |
| JLF | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 56 | 144 | 218 | 471 |
All right, let’s get into looking at our individual teams. Here are the obligatory set of charts.
Breakout Performer
You can’t look at this and not be impressed by the Portland system. Chris Wilson managed to do what you need to do when you run a fire sale, and took his farm system from the bottom of the tables to the top. The Lumberjack system carries 24 players rated 50 and better, only one of them in the International Complex. This suggests that, while Portland is once again taking some lumps, their double-clutching the rebuild may well pay off in the semi-near future.
A Look Through the Divisions
Off Topic
Yes, San Fernando and Long Beach continue to be near the bottom, but overall the Pacific division—for the second straight season—has seen their farm clubs as a whole take a step forward.
The division as a whole has 4 of the eleven prospects across the league who are currently projected at 80. Is this a sign? Will the later years of the 2040s see a rising wave in the Pacific division?
We shall see.
Off Topic
At the top we see Jacksonville continuing to rise up. Unlike Portland (and Sacramento last year), Gregg Greathouse’s approach has been slow and steady over the years, increasing from 14 > 7 > 3 in the weighted score ranks. Charm City, too, remains in the upper ranks. Rockville’s system sits third in the division, though its upper regions are boosted a bit by a pair of International Complex players, so you could argue there’s some risk there. Regardless, they’ve made a nice little move up the ranks and represent the best gainer in the division.
On the downslope, Charlotte made some moves to compete now, and perhaps as a result fell eleven slots to 19. New Orleans takes a 6-rank drop, though it’s hard to get too tied up in that. At #10, and with five guys at 60+, they still seem viable. Atlantic City faded a bit, too, but were already in the low ranges of the middle. Brooklyn and Montreal essentially held serve, with the Robin’s los showing ringing in the fact that their window appears to be now.
Off Topic
It’s a situation that makes judging the Heartland a bit more difficult.
I mean, if you look at the big picture, despite that nice top end, Nashville fell hard—mostly as judged in the middle-sones (50 and 55). Louisville, too, has moved players around such that their minors are now slightly below average. Same for my vaunted Yellow Springs. The Nine hung solid in the big picture, but mostly by swallowing a ton of UMEBA semi-prospects. Also, fueled by Ted Schmidt’s Win Now push, the River Monsters had fallen near to the bottom. Madison’s ranks remain tepid.
So, yeah. What’s to make of the Heartland?
You tell me.
Off Topic
The rest of the division is a bit of a mixed bag. Matt Rectenwald has Vegas moving up the chart, as is the division’s “big mover” in Calgary. All three of these are still pretty small increments, though. Now all-in kinds of things. And, to be honest, the rest of the division is not looking particularly hale. I mean, yes, El Paso has the biggest of the big plays in “No Decision” Cole (heh!), but it’s relatively barren after that. Their overall ranks fell 11 spots. Phoneix, who is on a push to win, dropped ten slots due mostly to trading name guys. Mexico City and San Antonio basically stayed in place, while Edmonton slipped four notches—albeit from 26 > 30.
Bottom line to me says that, despite holding nine prospects rated 70 or higher (tied with the Atlantic for tops) the Frontier is not the sexiest of places to look for prospects in.
Like last year, I've got the UMEBA done, too. Look for their numbers to hit the presses later today or early tomorrow.
