The English Bar at the Athenee Hilton readies itself for pre- and post-game festivities.
June 22, 2045, 4 p.m. In advance of tonight's Unified Middle East Baseball Association All-Star Game, four UMEBA general managers gathered in the English Bar in the lobby of the Athenee Palace Hilton in Bucharest, Romania, site of the game. After ordering shots and beers, they settled in for a chat.
Mike Dunn (Tripoli Piranhas): Gentlemen, good to see you all again, best of luck to your players tonight.
Jim Cox (Bucharest Impalers): (Sighs). I'm just hoping none of my guys are injured. Too much on the line here.
Dunn: Must be nice being contention.
Rich Young (Mumbai Metro Stars): It is (laughs), although your Piranhas might bounce back. And even the Hammers -- you never know!
John Momberg (Jerusalem Hebrew Hammers): I'm just happy to see all these amazing prospects promoted to the big leagues. Some of these guys could be playing right now in the Brewster.
Cox: Just don't tell them that! But, John, how's that prick of an owner you work for doing? He still interfering with things?
Momberg: He promised me he'd stay out of the draft, which he did, but he keeps texting my manager during games for lineup changes.
Young: That shit has got to end.
Momberg: Yes, but he won't listen. And he's threatening to cut my budget. Dunn, count yourself luck your owner is so laid back.
Dunn: I suppose, though he is expecting us to contend for the wildcard and that is a long shot right now. So, he's quiet now, but we'll see what happens in the offseason...
(Drinks arrive and the four GMs toast to the demise of all meddlesome owners).
Dunn: Gott say, I don't have the greatest mind for finances, but it seems to me that since every UMEBA team has a huge crop of stud youngsters at or near ML level, most of us will be jettisoning older, costlier guys in the offseason -- specifically those who are good but not great, and not locked into deals, and who are blocking the kids.
Cox: No doubt. But what's your point?
Dunn: My point is, that likely means that every UMEBA club should have a lot of salary room and budget for free agent bidding in the offseason, more so than in past years. FA bidding, as you well know, is the one area where UMEBA competes directly with MBBA. So, since UMEBA now has eight active owners, my prediction is that UMEBA FA bidding in the offseason will be extremely competitive, with our chances of luring the big names tempered only by the propensity of some FAs to prefer the bright lights of the Brewster.
Cox: One more thing to keep in mind, though, is that most players will accept a lot less in a BBA contract than they will in a UMEBA contract. I kept missing on players that I wanted that would sign for BBA teams for millions less than I was offering them per year.
Dunn: Yes, we definitely need to overbid. I think our ability to do so will be greater overall than in previous years.
Young: Yeah it's definitely going to make for an interesting off season.
Momberg: Gotta remember too, all these hot shot youngsters who we’ve drafted will be asking for big numbers in arbitration in a couple of years, so we probably need to be careful about using up our budget room making long term FA offers.
Dunn: Yes, but arbitration is what, three years off for most of them? And UMEBA is limited to three year deals anyway. So not as much an issue right now though certainly future arb numbers will definitely be a factor beyond this upcoming off season.
(Suddenly they spot a group of visiting GMs from the Monty Brewster Baseball Association, who have flown over to watch the All-Star Game: Ron Collins of the Yellow Springs Nine, Nigel Laverick of the El Paso Chilis, Herb DeSpain of the Montreal Blazers, and Chris Robillard of the Edomonton Jackrabbits).
Cox: Gentlemen! Come join us! Nice of you all to make the trip over to see the best baseball players in the universe!
Dunn: Yes, I guess you got tired of mediocrity and wanted to see some real ball games?
Robillard: Cox, if you're not careful that annoying Parrot mascot may show up again.
Collins: Actually we flew over to decide which young studs we're going to poach in a few years...
Young: By the way, folks, our condolences on the death of Monty Brewster.
Laverick: Thank you. He will be missed.
(All raise their glasses in a toast: "To Monty! To Monty! Rest in Peace!")
Dunn: We were just talking about the great crop of youngsters in the UMEBA -- we're going to be cutting a lot of older players, and that will give us greater flexibility in the off season to bid against you Brewster types for free agents:
Collins: Being a UMEBA GM is becoming quite the interesting exercise.
Dunn: Our goal is to keep MBBA GMs on their toes. #UMEBAstrong. (Laughter from all).
Cox: I actually have several players who will be entering arbitration year after next (2047). I think my projected salary jumps from $36.4 million next year to $66.9 million the following year. Of course, that is because I moved several players into majors last year --- and those players will be super 2 arb players.
Momberg: It's a balancing act, for me at least. What’s best for the franchise in the long term is probably to wait for your players to develop fully before promoting them, so that those first three “cheap” years are the best they can be. But it’s painful to suck as badly as I’ve sucked, and with all of us there’s the idea in the back of our minds that we may not be running these franchises in three years, so why not go for it right now and not worry about what’s coming three years down the road.
Cox: Tripoli is in somewhat better shape than me, but John, you only have $36.7 million projected salary in 2047, so you can afford some big free agents in offseason if you want. Your strategy of keeping your best prospects in minors will be paying dividends in the next few years.
Momberg: Yes, but promotion [to a GM spot in the Brewster] isn't guaranteed... I have been in UMEBA since 2039, so this is my seventh season. I continue to run my team as if I am here for the long haul.
Young: Yeah, I am taking a long haul approach as well. Even if leave I wouldn't want to leave a mess behind if I can help it.
Momberg: Oh, I know -- I still feel a responsibility to to not hamstring the next GM, whether it’s two seasons or twelve down the road, with a bad situation. The other problem is finding FAs worth the money who are willing to come to the UMEBA.
Cox: The "traditional" way of building teams in UMEBA was taking the "over-the-hill" players in free agency that BBA were casting to the curb. With the good drafts over the past few years, I think that will be chainging --- there will still be a few of those players as stop-gaps, but the bulk of our starters will have come up through UMEBA. I am already seeing this across much of my major league team
DeSpain [to waitress]: Could we have another round for the whole group? Put it on the Yellow Springs Nine tab, please, they're loaded. (More laughter; Collins rolls his eyes).
Cox (after looking at his phone): Just for curiosity, I checked and I still have 18 of 27 of my players on my active roster that played in BBA before playing UMEBA. I expect three or four years down the road, it will probably be less than half.
Momberg: Plus, as our recent draftees reach the majors, they will bring the level of play up, so that one won’t be able to sign a guy who hits .220 in the Brewster thinking he’ll hit .275 in UMEBA.
Cox: John, I just checked Jerusalem, you actually only have 13/27 players that played for BBA before UMEBA.
(Drinks arrive and the group toasts again) Nigel: "To annoying owners -- may they catch a foul ball in their arse!" "To annoying owners!" "To annoying owners" (Glasses clink).
Cox, still staring at his phone: I was just looking at [Jerusalem prospect] Gary Goodchild. What most surprises me about him is that in the two years since he was drafted at 16, his velocity has yet to increase on his pitches. What is most strange about that is that his velocity is 83-85 miles per hour. All of my pitchers have increased velocity substantially. That would suggest that it is because he is a knuckleballer. Maybe primary knuckleballers don't increase speed substantially. But given that, he might already be fully developed, or at least close to it.
Laverick: Look at Phil Cole, BBA's 1st overall pick this year, for an example of a slow knuckler.
Cox: What team?
(The MBBA GMs look at each other and laugh)
Laverick: El Paso’s AAA, just made his debut there after the draft and went 11 innings.
DeSpain: Has your manager never heard of pitch counts?
Laverick: Apparently not, but he knows about them now!
(Laughter)
Momberg: Yeah... I just promoted Hsuang-tsung Xu.
Collins: Gesundheit.
(Laughter).
Momberg: I was hoping I waited long enough to avoid super two, and Goodchild is probably better than Xu. But he’s soooo freaking young, and I’m hoping he may develop a bit more in the minors yet. But I promoted him, frankly, because all these 1-5 weeks were really beating me down.
DeSpain: If you guys are thinking long term then make sure you sign those draftees to extensions as soon as possible. If those guys hit FA then the BBA wolves will be there to snap them up. Not only do I see UMEBA teams being self sufficient in a few years for players - as you guys have discussed here - but I see the pipeline being two ways in the future instead of one way like it is now. All due to the great drafts the last couple of seasons.
Cox: One limitation, Herb, is that in UMEBA we can only sign players to three-year contracts maximum. I believe in BBA you can sign for seven years? It is harder to do that with only three years to work with.
DeSpain: Yeah...It's six in the BBA but you just have to be on top of those extensions. Once they hit FA it's over.
Robillard: Three years for anyone under 5 years service time, six years once they reach five years. Cue beautiful mind meme.
(Laughter)
Momberg: It'll be interesting to see what a guy like (Impalers starter and 2044 first rounder) Owen Geddes would command in free agency if he hit it while still in his early 20s.
Cox: Well, so, it depends. I would rate some of our top pitchers (for me, Geddes, Neill Fenomore), for you, Goodchild, but some for every team --- should be at least as good as Mateus Rabisca ended up being. Now Rabisca was asking me for $18 million for three years for an extension -- he originally asked for $20m but when I tried to negotiate him down, he went to $18 million.
Dunn: Freakin' agents. I hate them.
Cox: Yup. Maybe I could have gotten him for $17 million but I wasn't willing to go that high -- that's almost third of total salary cap!. But (Athens GM) Jay Tannehill offered him $23 million!
Young: Where is Jay?
Dunn: I don't know, I invited him.
Cox: Anyway, in BBA, I doubt Rabisca would have gotten more than $10 million. But I think it is going to take well into the tens of millions per year to retain these players after arbitration is over (stares again at phone) - Rabisca's last year of arbitration was about $6.5 million. Since our salary cap is so much lower than BBA, and players prefer to play there and will take less, we will have to really pour on the cash to get these players I think.
Collins: We keep our players happy with booze and women, mainly.
Cox, still staring at his phone: So these are some anticipated arbitration projections for 2047 for players on my 40-man. All of them are first year arbiration except Rakim Stevenson (2nd year) and Jay Gamble (2nd year): Rakim Stevenson: 4.2 million, Mitch Dalrymple: 4 million, Rafael Mullet: 3.4 million, Geddes (POT=70): 3.6 million, Fenomore: 2.4 million.
Momberg: Get that man another drink. (DeSpain signals the waitress for another round).
Dunn: Of course, those projections are based on the assumption that perform to their potential. If that happens, Impalers will have four straight UMEBA titles, and you'll be in the UMEBA HOF.
Cox: Playoffs are a crap shoot, though.
Collins: Tell me about it. (Laughter from all).
Dunn: Seriously, though, I'd imagine that UMEBA's limitations even as a feeder league (3-year contracts, $55M cap) will have to be adjusted upward as a reward to the GMs who choose to stay in the league, to at least make it somewhat more feasible to retain our stars.
(Next round of drinks arrive)
Dunn: I have mixed feeling about having promoted so many of my best prospects to the ML club, given it shortens their years available etc. But most of them are so fully developed, and better than the bums who they're replacing, and with the ML team in the cellar it makes little sense to watch the kids tear up AAA. Our AAA affiliate won that league's championship last year, and the parade drew about twelve fans who mostly went for free beer.
Cox (not listening, still reading off his phone): Jeremy Owbridge, 2.2 million... the only one so far I have been able to sign to an extension is Ajanidha Praveen --- I suspect his low greed had something to do with it.
Dunn: Or a shitty agent.
Momberg: Low greed, high loyalty... I probably need to pay more attention to that, especially with premium guys.
Cox: So high loyalty does make a difference... I just offered $2.8million a year for two years to Rakim Stevenson and although his projected Arb amounts total about $7 million for the two years combined, he said that he will take it. He has high loyalty and normal greed. The more I can even out player contracts so that I don't get the big hit in 2047, the better it will be for me.
(Other GMs start rolling their eyes and looking at their watches. Collins signals the waitress for the check).
Dunn: All right, thank you gentlemen. Let's do this again in the offseason! For now, we have a ball game to play!
(Others agree and gather their things, all except Cox, who is still staring at his phone)
Cox: Ok, I am getting better at this... I have worked it out for a couple more players....
