Analysis of the First Round of the 2045 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a likely two-part series analyzing this year's amateur draft. This part usually does the S1, but we didn’t have one of those this year so it won’t! The second part, likely to occur in a couple weeks, is a detailed look at bargains and busts through Round 5.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. I used cardboard boxes as the inspiration for this article. I found a four-leaf clover and it told me that I couldn’t possibly be wrong on any of these, but there’s only so much advice I’m willing to take from a weed. Do not use as a sewing needle.

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First Round Analysis:


1. SP Phil Cole (El Paso): Cole throws slow. REALLY slow. It’s a good thing his knuckler is absolutely unhittable. Potentially an absolute force out of the gate for El Paso, Cole arrives either fully developed or so developed you can’t tell he isn’t. You gotta love a knuckle/changeup/slider combination – it’s those 81 MPH silders that really fool you. Nothing to suggest he’s not a #1 starter. Last year’s Mellon Fox Mulder Award winner. Stud pick and absolutely no equivalent I can remember, past or present.

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2. SP Jamie Barber (Des Moines): Barber is as raw as Cole is developed, and a whole different sort of cat. The righty reaches the upper 90s on his fastball already, and if he gets everything scouts think he can he’ll be a pitcher in the mold of Jim Armstrong. Has not one but two changeups, which immediately made my head explode. He could probably be a good starter if he doesn’t get his primary changeup, but he’ll be special if he gets everything. Good intangibles. Des Moines’ management apparently understands time horizons.

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3. SP Thomas Turner (Charlotte): I think they’re glad they didn’t sign Mike Brodt. With the Cougars being competitive this year after years in the BBA weeds, Charlotte may not have Turner spend a single day in the minor leagues. As fully developed as you’d want to see at 20 years old, Turner may yet have another gear since he’s young enough to gain velocity. Mediocre movement might cause him some inconsistent years, but he’s going to the right park for his skill set. While he doesn’t feel precisely like a #1 starter, Turner should be about as good a #2 as you could hope for.

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4. CThomas Tatlock (Charlotte): Tatlock has been compared to a young Dexter Sheehan or Hank Brewer by effusive scouts, which is definitely way above and beyond on praise. But the switch-hitting catcher is a potential superstar, who long-term could be the best catcher in the BBA. His defense is the draw, as he has a gun for an arm and calls a good game. He’s a smart player who projects to be an outstanding two-way catcher with a high contact potential and some pop. Just about anyone would want this guy in their organization.

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5. SP Steve Warren (Portland): The big knock on Warren, who is an exceptionally developed lefty with a great work ethic, is that at 5’11”, 170, he’s not the sort of big workhorse starter who can work deep into ballgames. Really good conditioning should keep him on the field, and he could be the sort of starter who could throw complete games at 90 pitches occasionally.

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6. SP Peter Dean (Jacksonville): If Dean develops completely, I think we’d be doing him an injustice not calling him “Crazy Eights," though that joke was funnier before scouts say he lost a little movement. A hard thrower who should be able to work seamlessly into the late innings, Dean combines plus movement with a strong ground ball tendency, a good combination in the BBA. Also extremely well developed with a distinguished college career, Dean should come on in a hurry.

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7. 2B Thomas Jefferson (Valencia): Is it weird that I’m really sorry that Jacksonville didn’t take Jefferson? Founding ‘Canes? Fathers of Our Infield? Or maybe it’s better since infielders shouldn’t Rushmore than they already do. Anyway, Jefferson potentially has everything you’d want in a middle infielder. He looks good, if not great, defensively, and at the plate he projects high contact, good bat control, a good batting eye, some doubles power and even a little home run pop. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll be able to play a solid shortstop. Nice long-term choice.

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8. C John Rasmussen III (Las Vegas): Other than the fact that Vegas got themselves a potential star at #8 this year (and that Vegas is drafting #8!), the big news is that John Rassmussen, maybe the best pitcher in the history of the BBA who’s not in the Hall of Fame, had a JR, Jr, and now Vegas has drafted JR, Jr’s Jr! Rassmussen appears to project out like his granddaddy, who had a lifetime 3.5/1 K/BB ratio and might have command of as many as five pitches with superb durability. Mediocre movement might be an issue but we’ll see.

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9. CF Mike Brodt (Vancouver): Brodt was 22 years old a year ago when he was drafted at #2, and is now 23, and if just a little goes right for him next year he has a chance to be 24. Even if he doesn’t get 100% of his plate work done, Brodt looks like a good defensive 8 at the very least. If he gets it all he could be a real star, but he’s 23 and he’s nowhere near the majors yet, so patience will be necessary. He did bust out in college last year, so there's that. Also, what’s with Vancouver and outfielders anyway? You know there’s an infield too. At the very least I think someone will now pay Brodt.

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10. SP Carter Morris (Madison): Nonplussed by the idea that their top two starters gave up 93 homers last season, Madison drafts the possibly best low-movement starter prospect in the BBA draft this year. It makes perfect sense: Madison’s park is hypothetically one of the hardest places to hit a home run and so Morris should fit in great if he develops, especially since he throws ground balls. A college pitcher likely to be known as the “other” 2044 Fox Mulder (as opposed to #1 overall Phil Cole), Morris is a reasonably well-developed lefty starter with tricky stuff and a good arm for a lefty.

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11. SP Len Conboy (Seattle): Our first autopick of the 2045 draft. Conboy looks like a really solid #2 starter if he develops, though he’s one of those changeup-dependent players. Should be useable in the rotation even if he only gets some of that offspeed stuff, with good potentials across the board. Young and big enough that he could gain some velocity. A relatively safe pick.

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12. SP Albert Krant (Phoenix): Krant continues the well-developed college pitcher portion of the program, as he already throws both of his offspeed pitches for strikes and should require next to nothing to be a rock-solid BBA starter for the next decade. With Phoenix appearing contenders this year, the Talons might be tempted to bring up Krant in a hurry, though it’s possible that the team doesn’t really him need that fast. I think it was Billy Corgan who sung about the “urgency of now,” though, and so we might see Krant this year.

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13. IF Aaron Sims (Seattle): Actually, no I don’t. Sims is another Seattle autopick, and he looks the very model of a solid #3 starter. He’s a little underdeveloped for 20 years old, and nothing about him pops, but he should be all-around solid and consistent as a mid-rotation guy if he gets everything.

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14. 1B Joe Melucci (Atlantic City): You have to wonder if all the discussions we’ve had about how easy home runs are to hit in the BBA led to Melucci’s fall down the draft, as the first baseman potentially projects as easily the best power prospect in this draft. A lefty, Melucci has a notable but not overwhelming platoon factor. I actually can’t think of a direct equivalent to Melucci in the BBA, but in real life Reggie Jackson comes to mind. Poor defensively, fine intangibles.

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15. SP Ben Render (Twin Cities): I’m pretty sure that Render won’t spend a single day in the minor leagues. Twin Cities is all in right now, and Render looks like a pretty fair #3 starter or possibly even better, especially since he’s a well-developed, hard throwing lefty who works off a sinker. Poor work ethic, but overall he’ll definitely do.

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16. SP Sergei Bobrovsky (Boise): If you liked All-Star Diesel Dave, you’ll love his younger Russian cousin Sergei. Bobrovsky is extremely raw at almost 19 years old, but has the potential to play good catcher defense and hit 30 homers a season, albeit with a scary amount of strikeouts and a poor batting average. As Bobrovsky says in his trademark Russina accent, “Diesel Dave’s game never gets by me into my net.” I think the poor young man is confused.

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17. SP Davey Penn (Montreal): If you like the other players who are being rushed to the majors because they’ve been drafted by current contenders, you’ll love Davey Penn! Penn is a 22 year old college grad who really isn’t better than any of Montreal’s current starters, so maybe not, but he won’t be in the minors long; he’s fully grown. He should make a fine #3 or #4 starter.

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18. { Kam Fiscus (Long Beach): Been around the world and found that only stupid people are breeding...not accurate, but maybe true here. Fiscus does not work well or play well with others, but has a lot of positives. Well developed for a high school prospect, Fiscus has solid potentials across the board even while his array of pitches, while vast, is a little underwhelming. In the majors, Fiscus should be able to pitch to contact and throw strikes, but he’s a couple years away at least. Fairly lousy intangibles, but he’s durable, should throw deep into ballgames and holds runners well.

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19. SS Ryan Geauxinue (Mexico City): It’s a testament to how good this draft is that Geauxinue lasted this long in the draft; if you had told me that a potential perennial .300 hitter at short with decent pop and solid defensive tools was available at pick #19 in most drafts I’d have looked at you sideways. Worth noting he’s a switch hitter; we could be seeing the second coming of Bernard Maselli (65.5 career WAR and 32 in the EBA). Doesn’t run especially well but should hit.


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20. P Flynn Lewis (Brooklyn): Are you in like Flynn? (Notably, I don't think he has any relation to Australian actor Errol Flynn, or at least we hope he doesn't.) I think the most favorable comparison with Flynn would probably be Nashville’s Cesar Sanchez, who had a ten-year minor league career before breaking through in 2044. Unlike Sanchez, the Robins won’t have to wait 10 years for Flynn; he’s ready tomorrow. Solid intangibles, and young for a fully developed lefty.

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21. SP Kurt Hanson (San Fernando): Kurt Hanson is exactly the sort of pitcher San Fernando seems to find: huge arms, questionable control. Hanson walked 19 batters in 30 innings this year in college (and 19 in 42 innings last year). The Bears might have had visions of Felipe Guevara (5.5 WAR in 2044) dancing in their head, though Guevara has ALSO walked 27 batters in 39 innings this year, so maybe that comparison is apt. Solid intangibles, good conditioning, looks like a major leaguer to me.


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22. SP Bill Meadows (Nashville): Meadows is a young 21 years old but very old to be as underdeveloped as he is. He’s very much the Mike Brodt of the pitching side of this draft. He’s going to need a lot of coaching and his changeup, for sure, or he’s not going to make it, possibly not even as a reliever. Great intangibles will help, but this guy’s a project.

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23. SP Jim Hayes (Calgary): A junkballer in Calgary? My, the league has changed. Hayes throws a hard if somewhat undisciplined sinker, but his primary pitches are likely to be a solid changeup and a curveball in development. He’s also a little bit raw for an oldish 21. Calgary’s a good ballclub and can afford to wait for him, but like Meadows before him, Hayes is a project. Good intangibles should help.

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24. RP/SP? Rickey Taylor (Omaha): Taylor throws very hard, but is very unrefined at nearly 22 years old. He’ll need seasoning just to work on his offspeed stuff and rode pine for a long time in college. Did I mention he throws very hard? Taylor’s a project, albeit one that scouts seem to love. There’s a chance he gets tried out at starter in the future, too, as a potential conversion candidate, if he starts to come on strong.

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25. SP Juan Guerrero (Brooklyn): On Brooklyn’s second pick he was not in like Flynn; it was an autopick. Guerrero would probably improve with a velocity increase, and a little younger than 19 it could happen. He looks like a classical #3 starter, and is well developed for his age. He should come on relatively quickly. Probably wouldn’t make a good reliever conversion as he doesn’t throw hard.

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26. OF John Henderson (Charm City): Henderson is currently a center fielder, and I think his value will be tied to his ability to play the 8. He’s still just 18 and isn’t nearly fully developed yet. Henderson would probably make a killer defensive 7 or 9, but his bat probably won’t play there; other than both his doubles and home run power he’s likely to be very inconsistent at the plate. Has a passable batting eye. Runs the bases well, fast, okay intangibles.

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27. CF Jeffrey Tate (Calgary): Tate suggests that Calgary’s love affair with Todd Rice might be over almost as soon as it started. Tate is a good fielder and should be a solid player at the plate, with a good batting eye and a little doubles pop, and he runs well. He might not get to ten homers even in Calgary, but he looks like a major leaguer. Poor intangibles, but he is fully developed and should come on in a big hurry.

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28. OF/2B?/1B Dallas Dixon (Sacramento): As an outfielder, Dallas Dixon makes a pretty good infielder. Dixon, a righty, has some good plate skills, but he won’t hit enough for a corner outfielder and he won’t field enough for center field. However, if he could play a passable second base he’d be valuable. As it is he might be a supersub, which also isn’t bad. Mixed intangibles, good baserunner.

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29. SS Larry Barkin (Chicago): Barkin had an absolutely absurd college career, winning back to back Bo Jordans and shredding pretty hard in 2045, too. It's still a little bit of an interesting pick for the Black Sox, whose top prospect is International player Badr Isam. Seems like a good problem to have. Both players are at least a while away from the major leagues, but one of them will surely stop the bleeding for them at the position. Barkin should be a solid starter at shortstop; he’ll hit enough to keep his glove out there, and his glove is outstanding.

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30. 3B Logan Niles (Hawaii): Potentially a good field, no hit player, Niles is the sort of player you feel a lot better about at the plate because he’s a switch-hitter. He has excellent power for a shortstop, but lacks in every other offensive skill but his ability to run, which is solidly above average. It’s possible we’re looking at the first 30-30 shortstop who also hits .220 in Niles. Well developed for his age, Niles needs to get his power to be a really viable starter but his defense will keep him around a long time.

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31. SP Brent Murphy (Louisville): Another nearly fully developed starting pitcher going to a contender. Murphy’s fastball hits 100 on the gun, and he has a well developed knuckle curve he can throw for strikes. His command isn’t great, but he makes up for it with velocity. At the very least he should be an adequate #4 type starter and would definitely make it in the bullpen. Feels underrated by scouts. We should see him soon.

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32. SP Michael Sullivan (Mexico City): Sullivan is a well-rounded lefty starter who throws hard. As hard as he throws, though, you’d really like to see better stuff. He is well developed for 20 years old, and does tend to throw ground balls, but he’ll have to pitch to contact a bit. He’d probably also be an underwhelming reliever conversion. He does some of the small things well and has good stamina, and also did I mention he’s a lefty?

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33. RP/SP? Lance Barrett (Edmonton): As a prospect, Barrett looks really good. He has good velocity for a teenager and is young enough to gain some. He has the potential to overwhelm with two strong pitches, throws a ton of ground balls, and he might even be a reasonable candidate for a starter conversion. Barrett has lousy intangibles and isn’t well developed for someone who’s just about to turn 20, especially in this draft, but he’s a really good project to have.

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34. 3B Nigel Laverick II (New Orleans): Watch me hold back from redux jokes. (Wait, wasn’t that a redux joke?) (…Wasn’t THAT a redux joke?) Anyway, Laverick has a pretty good chance of being present at the plate most of the time, against righties, with a big power bat. However, he might have big holes against lefties. It’s also worth noting that he has zero skill at his designated position and might end up being either a poor-fielding outfielder or a slick-fielding first baseman. If he can hit enough to stick at first base in a platoon Laverick could be a good pick.

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35. SS William James Westwood (San Antonio): Westwood is a very raw project, to be sure, but he’s just 18 years old and has lots of time to grow. Westwood has good defensive skills and should have an adequate righty bat for a middle infielder if he gets everything. Good intangibles, might end up as a supersub even if he gets everything. Apparently named for a notable Manitoban.

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36. RP SP Kerry Pike (Rockville): Rockville picks an uninspiring lefty starter for the second straight year. Pike is another well-developed starting pitcher who still needs some work around the edges. The lefty starter is the very model of a 3/4 starter type with good velocity who works everything off good velocity and a solid first-pitch fastball. He might be better if he gains velocity and has a solid frame, though he’s already 21 so he might not.

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37. RP Kyle McKinlay (San Antonio): San Antonio was pretty clear: they do not need their guys ready any time soon. McKinlay is an interesting project, too. He’s raw at 19 years old, and while he does throw six pitches he definitely doesn’t throw any of them well yet. Fully developed he’ll throw strikes and be a tricky guy to hit against, but he’s a long way off. He’d almost surely benefit from more velocity.

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38. 3B Banger Dan (Yellow Springs): Banger Dan was probably the top player left on the board, which is always a good idea. Dan also probably has the best chance to become a star at this point in the draft, too: he projects as a well-rounded player both offensively and defensively and the only real knock on him is that he’s still a project. Good intangibles, certainly someone to watch.

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39. 2B Gary Robertson (New Orleans): Robertson is a good long-term project and also projects, like Banger Dan, as a well-rounded infielder. Robertson isn’t likely to have the defensive skills that Dan does, but his plate skills are comparable and having him at second base should improve his value. A good challenge pick; there’s also a really good chance that both players make it and are ten year starters.

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[bigmike13]

Top notch writing again. Always my favorite read

[GoldenOne]

Nice job Aaron!

[lordtoffee]

Really enjoyed the read Aaron. Very pitching heavy focus this year in the first round.

[HoosierVic]

Excellent, as always! The Vegas blurb is priceless - JR’s Jr.’s jr. Heh.

On my pick ... we need a shortstop sooner rather than later. My IC guy is probably 4 years away, assuming he develops as projected, which is a big assumption. Barkin is closer to a sure thing - and already has the fielding chops I want. Soooo ... not a hard decision at #29.

[CTBrewCrew]

Thanks for doing this every year!

[aaronweiner]

Excellent, as always! The Vegas blurb is priceless - JR’s Jr.’s jr. Heh.

On my pick ... we need a shortstop sooner rather than later. My IC guy is probably 4 years away, assuming he develops as projected, which is a big assumption. Barkin is closer to a sure thing - and already has the fielding chops I want. Soooo ... not a hard decision at #29.

No, not too hard. His college career was absurd, too. In a stats only league he could have been the #1 overall pick.

[crobillard]

Fantastic read once again. Absolutely going to try a starter conversion on Barrett. I think it’s my first one too so we’ll see how it goes.

[7teen]

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8. C John Rasmussen III (Las Vegas): Other than the fact that Vegas got themselves a potential star at #8 this year (and that Vegas is drafting #8!), the big news is that John Rassmussen, maybe the best pitcher in the history of the BBA who’s not in the Hall of Fame, had a JR, Jr, and now Vegas has drafted JR, Jr’s Jr! Rassmussen appears to project out like his granddaddy, who had a lifetime 3.5/1 K/BB ratio and might have command of as many as five pitches with superb durability. Mediocre movement might be an issue but we’ll see.

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Best part of the bit. And I agree, Rasmussen is the best pitcher NOT in the HOF.

[Dington]

Thanks for your work on this. Always fun to read.

[indiansfan]

Love to read this every year.

[Clayman]

Very nice write up, i brought Jefferson in as middle infield is a weakness in the organisation.

[JimBob2232]

Nice job. I was very happy to get Laverick and Robertson - although i would have prefered a SP, but didnt like how the board fell.

[StormZ_23]

I nearly picked Geauxiune at #9, a really great pick for Mexico City at #19. Btw I don't only pick outfielders, it's just my pitchers get injured and there are never any middle infielders I like. Infield = overrated

[crobillard]

I nearly picked Geauxiune at #9, a really great pick for Mexico City at #19. Btw I don't only pick outfielders, it's just my pitchers get injured and there are never any middle infielders I like. Infield = overrated

I agree. Infield is overrated. No one should ever draft infielders in early rounds.