How Good is a "10" Stuff? (A Scan of Ratings in 2047)

[RonCo]

Ben was asking about some things about player evaluation offline, and it got me thinking also about my little conversation with Nigel regarding how you can make your team better and still get worse. The issue, of course, is “what is better?” As you’re evaluating talent, what do you weigh highest and what do you consider “good.”

It got me thinking about our rating system (which is now open and “true” rather than adjusted to relatives. This system has the advantage that you can actually see what you’re looking at, but the disadvantage that it requires you to be a bit more conscious of what ratings are all around us.

Here’s an example: Is a “10” stuff good?

I suppose it depends.

To get a feel for how good “10” stuff is, I pulled all BBA players of all levels, and then took a count of all relief pitchers Stuff Potential. Here is a count by level:

Stuff >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
MLB				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
AAA					9	22	54	56	51	33	13	3	5	2		1	249
AA				1	12	51	66	46	42	19	9	2					248
A				3	24	50	57	50	32	12	8	4		1			241
S A			4	8	37	72	60	52	20	14	5	1	1		1		275
R			3	22	44	85	70	45	20	1	5	3					298
INT		2	3	4	9	5	1										24
-	1	7	23	44	38	20	12	4	3								152
Grand Total	1	9	33	83	173	313	350	297	221	132	69	33	17	8	8	3	1750

Here is the same count for Starting Pitchers:

Stuff >>	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Total
MLB						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2	192
AAA						13	50	59	34	19	8	3	1		1	188
AA					6	27	70	50	22	13	3	2				193
A				1	10	52	76	50	23	10	2	1			1	226
S A				3	14	47	74	55	36	6	1					236
R				4	19	58	79	50	19	11	4		1			245
INT	1	13	89	170	211	130	47	17	6	1						685
-				1	4	18	8	5	2	1						39
Grand Total	1	13	89	179	264	347	429	335	187	93	33	19	7	4	4	2004

So, at the BBA level (assuming potentials get mazed out) a “10” Stuff reliever is mediocre, and had better have some good MOV/CON to stick in the game, whereas a “10” Stuff Starter is a bit better than mid-pack.

You can, of course, do the same thing for other ratings:

All Pitchers:

Movement >>	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
MLB			5	13	60	134	185	56	2	455
AAA		2	18	32	87	150	134	11	3	437
AA		2	25	51	100	180	77	6		441
A		6	35	67	132	140	73	14		467
S A		10	53	90	128	152	66	12		511
R	1	6	92	133	124	121	56	10		543
INT		168	312	146	45	28	10			709
-		34	72	31	26	23	5			191
Grand Total	1	228	612	563	702	928	606	109	5	3754

Al Pitchers:

Control >>	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Total
MLB		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3	455
AAA		1	9	14	64	114	135	75	24	1		437
AA	1	1	6	33	123	116	97	51	13			441
A		3	9	46	121	124	98	49	13	4		467
S A	4	11	23	74	121	153	83	35	7			511
R	3	9	30	68	164	124	97	37	10	1		543
INT	45	82	119	157	194	71	30	11				709
-	8	22	32	45	47	20	12	5				191
Grand Total	61	130	232	449	872	793	683	386	119	26	3	3754

These are kind of interesting. I can look down the YS9 organization and see where any pitching prospect in my organization lines up. For example, Edgardo Mota is up on my screen. He’s a 10/7/6 SP in A-ball. To get a flavor of where he currently stands relative to others, I can scan these charts and get a feeling for exactly how good that is…if I shift him to a reliever, I get another cut.

Obviously, a player at the top end of all these is a better candidate than a pitcher in the middle. Blah, blah, blah.

Anyway, I’m not sure this helps Ben—especially since his club is the UMEBA, but you get the idea. If you wish to judge value, I figure it helps to start by understanding what the rest of the world is like.

[Dington]

Cool data. I think.

[RonCo]

Here’s the same data for only major league potentials. We’ll assume for the moment that all pitchers have hit their potential, though this is suspect, of course. Still…

Rating >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
RP Stuff				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
SP Stuff						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2		192
Movement			5	13	60	134	185	56	2								455
Control		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3						455

Let’s plot a pitcher or two.

How about Josh Henson, a crafty little lefty who has been really effective out of my pen for a few years. His Stuff/Movement/Control is 9/7/9.

By coloring where he sits, we see he’s not going to make the cut based on his stuff, but his movement is probably less than average and his control is in within shouting distance of elite.

Rating >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
RP Stuff				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
SP Stuff						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2		192
Movement			5	13	60	134	185	56	2								455
Control		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3						455

Given his performance over a decent sample size now, I'd purely guess that the ratings he's got are on the upper bands of those zones (his 9 stuff and 7 movement are a "high" 9 and a "high" 7. Henson is 27, and likely in his peak seasons over the next y ear or two. If my guess is right (that he's high in his ratings), then this suggests that after he moves past, say 29, there is a decent likelihood that his performance will fade for a season or three even as his ratings hold their mark. If I'm not thinking that way, then when he starts becoming less effective, I might get a bit unhappy. Is he just being unlucky at that point, or is he actually getting worse in rating rot even though I can't see anything?

Therein lies (IMHO) the beauty of player evaluation in OOTP.

[Fat Nige]

Thanks again to Ron for providing something for us statistically challenged GMs to mull on. It’s probably good to know where your pitchers are in regards to the world in general, but probably harder, particularly in the UMEBA, to find someone better

[RonCo]

How about Dean Stranaghan, a 26 year old who is coming off his first-ever All-Star appearance. He’s a 13/7/4 reliever. Let’s plot him:

Rating >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
RP Stuff				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
SP Stuff						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2		192
Movement			5	13	60	134	185	56	2								455
Control		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3						455

Obviously, this guy is all about his 14 Stuff, which makes him a top 15-25 kind of guy. His movement is only workable (again, maybe toward the upper zone, maybe not). And his control is…well…not good. Here’s the thing about his 2047, though. He’s thrown 48 innings and his BB/9 ratio is a career-low 3.4.

Bottom line: he’s going to be really streaky. If I could find a way of using him against only teams that won’t take walks, he’ll be brilliant, otherwise, he’ll struggle. In OOTP, Stranaghan has been exactly what I’d guess—a streaky kind of guy who puts up some great years (2.24 ERA, 48 FIP- in 2045, 5.24 ERA, 120 FIP- in 2046, 1.49 ERA, 41 FIP- this year). Bottom line, even if he's high in his control zone, he's gotten lucky so far this year.

That’s the life of a fire-balling reliever, right?

[RonCo]

Thanks again to Ron for providing something for us statistically challenged GMs to mull on. It’s probably good to know where your pitchers are in regards to the world in general, but probably harder, particularly in the UMEBA, to find someone better

Talent acquisition in the UMEBA is certainly tough.

But at least if you can get a grasp of the talent level in the league, when things go haywire you can rest more peacefully knowing you're doing what you can do.

[RonCo]

I’ve got a guy in the minors—Rodney Keeley. He’s a 15/5/5 guy. I’m sorely tempted to bring him and his elite level Stuff up to the bigs to see how he would do:

Rating >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
RP Stuff				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
SP Stuff						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2		192
Movement			5	13	60	134	185	56	2								455
Control		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3						455

Would he be close to Stranaghan? Even higher stuff, slightly better control, but more homers. It could be worth it. If I wasn’t in contention, I’d do it just for the entertainment value.

[Jwalk100]

I’ve got a guy in the minors—Rodney Keeley. He’s a 15/5/5 guy. I’m sorely tempted to bring him and his elite level Stuff up to the bigs to see how he would do:

Rating >>	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	18	Total
RP Stuff				1		8	30	44	53	53	29	20	11	5	7	2	263
SP Stuff						2	25	49	45	32	15	13	5	4	2		192
Movement			5	13	60	134	185	56	2								455
Control		1	4	12	38	71	131	123	52	20	3						455

Would he be close to Stranaghan? Even higher stuff, slightly better control, but more homers. It could be worth it. If I wasn’t in contention, I’d do it just for the entertainment value.

He throws high velocity which is one of the things I look for in a RP. He has lost some movement maybe due to the velocity bumps. I think he could do a decent job and he may even get a movement bump. He is still just 22.

[RonCo]

He throws high velocity which is one of the things I look for in a RP. He has lost some movement maybe due to the velocity bumps. I think he could do a decent job and he may even get a movement bump. He is still just 22.

Yeah, he's got some time to grow.

[aaronweiner]

You're probably the only team in the league who wouldn't already be using Keeley. He's basically a step below In-Sung Yi.

[recte44]

Why did we switch from relative ratings again?

[RonCo]

Why did we switch from relative ratings again?

The main advantage is that you now know if development is your player rather than the rest of the league adjusting up or down...like happens every off-season.

[FuzzyRawley]

Need to see this in cumulative distribution curve (cause I've been looking at them all day).

I may have a coffee break task now.

[usnspecialist]

Why did we switch from relative ratings again?

because offseason and spring training was hell with relative ratings.

[GoldenOne]

Lowest guy in my bullpen is a 10 stuff but he's a 10/5/9 so he's still pretty effective.

[shoeless.db]

Movement ratings are shifted one to the right on the last graphs.

Also, you forgot to include Moxie in this.

[scottsdale_joe]

[CTBrewCrew]

Attl’ do it!

[cheekimonk]

Thank you, as always, to RonCo!!!