Hank Brewer, Dan Cannon, and Lucas McNeill each became first-ballot Hall of Famers this season. All three were probably pretty much slam dunks—though it should be noted that none of them were unanimous. Very few, however, would suggest that the induction of these players wasn’t really warranted. Their names are all over the record books and leader boards and all the other things that go into that elusive “fame” part of the equation.
Of perhaps more note, however, was the addition of three other players: Dusty Rhodes, Cisco Guerrero, and Lawrence Columbus LaLoosh—all of whom entered on, well, not their first ballot.
It’s enough to make me wonder if BBA voters are changing the way they approach the process.
I say that because, with the BBA being a straight-up yes/no vote for each player, the league had never seen a player make the Hall of Fame after that first ballot until 2043, when Mario Soriano slipped in. Soriano had pulled 71% of the vote the year before, and then pushed over to 82% the second year on the ballot—making history. A year later, Valeri Kharlamov joined him, being inducted in his third season on the ballot, having drawn 59% his first year, then missing narrowly at 73% before making it in with 88% that third season.
I’ve been thinking about this for a bit of time now, and even wrote an article for the Media Guide about the prospects of one Cisco Guerrero, who, as noted, subsequently made it in this year—his fourth on the ballot. Guerrero is an interesting case, as he’s never pulled less than 69%, but made it in with “only” 79% of the vote. The Notorious Dusty Rhodes was “rejected” his first year at 55%, but jumped to 79% his second. And, of course, the new poster child for long-ballot processes is now LaLoosh, who started his HoF quest in the 30s, spent three seasons in that area before jumping to about 50% for a couple seasons before cresting to 76% in that sixth season on the ballot.
In all, it looks like this:
| POS | Candidate | First Yr | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Dusty Rhodes | 2044 | 55 | 79 | |||||
| 1B | Cisco Guerrero | 2042 | 70 | 74 | 69 | 79 | |||
| CF | Mario Soriano | 2041 | 71 | 82 | |||||
| 2B | Valeri Kharlamov | 2041 | 59 | 73 | 88 | ||||
| SP | Lawrence Columbus LaLoosh | 2040 | 30 | 38 | 32 | 48 | 51 | 76 |
So, tell me, is this random luck, or does this meant that the BBA voters are getting more sophisticated in their choices. After all the work Chris Wilson has done in his marvelous pantheon write-ups, have voters started to vote with these kinds of things in mind?
Look at the last seven first-ballot guys to get in:
- Alfredo Salazar
- Alfredo Martinez
- Cisco Arreola
- Jared Gillstrom
- Hank Brewer
- Dan Cannon
- Lucas McNeill
The five that made the ballot in later years?
Well, only a few would argue they didn’t belong in the story someplace, but I don’t think anyone would be pushing these guys for the inner circle anytime soon. Some might suggest Guerrero was under-rated, but if those same people were forced to go through the Wilson process, I’d guess they’d be hard-pressed to force someone down. Perhaps he’d be in the third tier. Dunno. (Calling Chris Wilson, calling Chris Wilson!)
Similar for the other four guys.
No one, I think, would say that Soriano, Kharmalov, Rhodes, or LaLoosh should be hanging at the top of the pyramid.
So, Who is Left?
Which leads me to look at the guys left on the ballot. If we include all the guys who qualified to carry on to the ballot (including the guys who performed “poorly,” and were left off the ballot due to space constraints), we see something that looks like this:
| POS | Candidate | First Yr | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3B | Carlton Winson | 2043 | 58 | 55 | 65 | ||||
| 1B | Grevasio Riddler | 2044 | 55 | 65 | |||||
| RP | Peter Grady | 2045 | 51 | ||||||
| 1B | Jon Mick | 2043 | 35 | 41 | 41 | ||||
| 1B | William Moreland | 2044 | 37 | 41 | |||||
| LF | Carlos Gonzales | 2044 | 24 | 34 | |||||
| DH | Ettienne R. Lafitte | 2044 | 27 | 24 | |||||
| LF | Steve Dempsey | 2044 | 27 | 17 | |||||
| SP | Egbert Behner | 2044 | 17 | x | |||||
| 1B | Dan Leonard | 2042 | 23 | 12 | 17 | x | |||
| 1B | Rupert Grant | 2043 | 12 | 13 | x | ||||
| 3B | Mark Dempsey | 2042 | 11 | 19 | 13 | x | |||
| CL | Bob Sanderson | 2039 | 19 | 30 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 13 | x |
| SP | Jon Reed | 2043 | 12 | x | |||||
| LF | Jorge Rogriguez | 2044 | 10 | x |
Winson and Riddler both made moves from the mid-50s to the mid-60s this year. Both have good cases, but not perfect cases. Neither are likely upper-tier Hall of Famers. Does this pattern suggest voters are ready for them in 2046?
Grady is a test case for the big-inning/high-leverage reliever. He garnered just over half the votes in his first season. I’ll be interested to see if that waxes or wanes nest year.
Then comes the cases of Jon Mick and William Moreland—which are nearly identical, but swap WAR for RBI. Both scored tepid mid-30s in their first seasons out. Both have now edged into the 40s. It would seem like the voters are kicking the tires and seeing what’s under the hood. I’d guess neither will fall off the ballot any time soon, but I’m wondering if voters will push one or both into the 50s next year, and if so, will that signal an extended process that sees them win out in the end? I don’t know, but it’s interesting to see.
Alternatively, it will be interesting to see what might happen to guys who haven’t been on the ballot for a little while as/if they return (space will be dependent upon retirements). Will the BBA voters look upon them differently after taking a little break?
The Hall of Fame, after all, is this big old messy thing. It reflects “us” over the years.
So, who the heck are we now, and who are we going to wind up being?
Stay tuned for the next round of “Chose that Hall of Famer!”
