The Brewster

So inspired by a seemingly rhetorical question tossed out in Episode 62 of the Ted and Ron Show (also known as the BBA Today), I decided to take a look at whether it is better to have an elite pitching staff or offense in the playoffs. I looked at this a few different ways which will be broken down in subsequent posts, but first some housekeeping items.

-To compare I used runs scored and runs allowed, as those are the simplest metrics
-Park factors are NOT accounted for. I know this is a big determinant but there is no real easy way to go back into history and not only figure out park factors, but also how they compare to the rest of the league
-This data is from 1995-2043.
-Teams are ranked by their Z-Score (basically how dominant they were in comparison to their peers in the same year, to allow us to judge across eras)
-I ignored any difference in leagues, although I do have that data available where I could break down if necessary.

HITTING:

PLACE	TEAM	YEAR	PLAYOFF RESULT
1.	SAN FERNANDO	2037	Lost Landis
2.	HUNTSVILLE (CHI)	2026	Lost Cartwright
3.	MONTREAL	2003	None
4.	LONG BEACH	2011	Lost Cartwright
5.	HALIFAX (NSH)	2020	Lost Landis
6.	BIRMINGHAM (SA)	2015	Won Landis
7.	LAS VEGAS	2031	Lost Cartwright
8.	LAS VEGAS	2028	Lost Cartwright
9.	MONTREAL	2032	Lost Geoghegan
10.	LONG BEACH	2012	Lost Cartwright
11.	LONG BEACH	2009	Lost Cartwright
12.	MONTREAL	2002	Lost Doubleday
13.	NEW ORLEANS	2004	Lost Landis
14.	SAN FERNANDO	2039	Lost Doubleday
15.	LAS VEGAS	2033	Lost Doubleday
16.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2007	None
17.	JACKSONVILLE	2034	Lost Doubleday
18.	CALGARY	2016	Lost Doubleday
19.	ROCKVILLE	2038	Lost Cartwright
20.	MADISON	2005	Lost Doubleday
21.	LOUISVILLE	2042	Won Landis
22.	CAROLINA (RCK)	2017	Lost Landis
23.	JACKSONVILLE	2036	Lost Doubleday
24.	SEATTLE	2013	Lost Landis
25.	LAS VEGAS	2030	Lost Landis
26.	LOUISVILLE	1996	Lost Cartwright
27.	NEW ORLEANS	2013	Lost Cartwright
28.	ATLANTIC CITY	2028	Lost Doubleday
29.	INDIANAPOLIS (OMA)	2023	Lost Landis
30.	SEATTLE	2012	Lost Doubleday
31.	INDIANAPOLIS (OMA)	2025	None
32.	BIRMINGHAM (SA)	2016	Lost Doubleday
33.	LONG BEACH	2010	Lost Doubleday
34.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2001	Lost Doubleday
35.	JACKSONVILLE	2038	Lost Doubleday
36.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2038	Lost Doubleday
37.	LOUISVILLE	2030	Won Landis
38.	MONTREAL	2031	Lost Doubleday
39.	LAS VEGAS	2027	Won Landis
40.	MADISON	2004	Won Landis
41.	SEATTLE	2015	Lost Doubleday
42.	LAS VEGAS	2018	Lost Cartwright
43.	SAN FERNANDO	2043	Lost Geoghegan
44.	MONTREAL	2019	Lost Doubleday
45.	MADISON	1998	Lost Cartwright
46.	SAN FERNANDO	2035	Lost Doubleday
47.	BOISE	2041	None
48.	MONTREAL	2014	Lost Doubleday
49.	LONG BEACH	2006	Lost Cartwright
50.	MONTREAL	2013	Lost Doubleday
51.	HALIFAX (NSH)	2018	Lost Landis
52.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2008	Lost Cartwright
53.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2000	Lost Doubleday
54.	CALGARY	2000	Lost Doubleday
55.	LOUISVILLE	1997	None
56.	ATLANTIC CITY	2024	Lost Landis
57.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2041	Lost Landis
58.	SEATTLE	2010	None
59.	MADISON	1999	Lost Cartwright
60.	LONG BEACH	2029	Won Landis
61.	TWIN CITIES	2042	Lost Geoghegan
62.	SEATTLE	2016	None
63.	MADISON	2002	Lost Doubleday
64.	LONG BEACH	2007	Lost Doubleday
65.	HUNTSVILLE (CHI)	2025	Lost Cartwright
66.	SEATTLE	2024	Lost Cartwright
67.	HAWAII	2043	Lost Doubleday
68.	SEATTLE	2027	None
69.	MONTREAL	2022	None
70.	SEATTLE	2022	Lost Doubleday
71.	GREENVILLE (JAX)	1997	Lost Cartwright
72.	LAS VEGAS	2009	Lost Landis
73.	MONTREAL	2020	Lost Doubleday
74.	CALGARY	2035	Lost Cartwright
75.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2002	Lost Cartwright
76.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	1997	Lost Landis
77.	LOUISVILLE	2040	Lost Landis
78.	HUNTSVILLE (CHI)	2029	Lost Doubleday
79.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2003	Lost Doubleday
80.	MADISON	2007	Lost Cartwright
81.	BROOKLYN	2022	Lost Landis
82.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2040	Lost Cartwright
83.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2043	Lost Cartwright
84.	EDMONTON	2041	Won Landis
85.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2033	Lost Landis
86.	LAS VEGAS	2026	Lost Doubleday
87.	OMAHA (MEX)	2024	Lost Cartwright
88.	BROOKLYN	2027	Lost Doubleday
89.	LOUISVILLE	2018	Lost Cartwright
90.	CALGARY	2019	Lost Cartwright
91.	ATLANTIC CITY	2010	Lost Landis
92.	CALGARY	2027	Lost Doubleday
93.	BALTIMORE (BRK)	2005	Lost Landis
94.	CHICAGO	1995	Won Landis
95.	HALIFAX (NSH)	2021	None
96.	SEATTLE	2019	None
97.	TWIN CITIES	2033	Lost Doubleday
98.	LONG BEACH	2008	Lost Doubleday
99.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2042	Lost Doubleday
100.	MARQUETTE (OMA)	2001	Lost Cartwright

PITCHING:

PLACE	TEAM	YEAR	PLAYOFF RESULT
1.	California	2037	Lost Doubleday
2.	EDMONTON	2040	Lost Cartwright
3.	HACKENSACK	1997	Won Landis
4.	HACKENSACK	1996	Lost Cartwright
5.	VALENCIA	1995	Lost Cartwright
6.	LAS VEGAS	2006	Won Landis
7.	CALIFORNIA	2036	Lost Doubleday
8.	MADISON	2004	Won Landis
9.	CHICAGO	2012	Lost Doubleday
10.	CALIFORNIA	2035	Won Landis
11.	NEW ORLEANS	2013	Lost Cartwright
12.	LAS VEGAS	2008	Won Landis
13.	CALIFORNIA	2014	Lost Cartwright
14.	CALIFORNIA	2024	Won Landis
15.	HAWAII	2007	Lost Doubleday
16.	CALGARY	2041	Lost Cartwright
17.	CALIFORNIA	2016	Lost Landis
18.	VANCOUVER	2031	Lost Geoghegan
19.	CALIFORNIA	1999	Lost Doubleday
20.	VALENCIA	1996	Lost Doubleday
21.	CALIFORNIA	2003	Lost Landis
22.	Rockville	2037	Won Landis
23.	VANCOUVER	2005	Lost Doubleday
24.	HAWAII	2010	Won Landis
25.	CALIFORNIA	2002	Won Landis
26.	CHICAGO	2013	Lost Cartwright
27.	CALIFORNIA	2015	Lost Doubleday
28.	CALIFORNIA	2023	Lost Geoghegan
29.	SACRAMENTO	2043	Lost Doubleday
30.	CALIFORNIA	2032	Lost Doubleday
31.	CALIFORNIA	2034	Lost Geoghegan
32.	HAVANA	2034	Won Landis
33.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2031	Lost Landis
34.	HAWAII	2008	Lost Doubleday
35.	SAN ANTONIO	2032	Lost Geoghegan
36.	Edmonton	2037	Lost Cartwright
37.	CALIFORNIA	2033	Lost Doubleday
38.	VANCOUVER	2028	Lost Doubleday
39.	VANCOUVER	2008	Lost Landis
40.	VANCOUVER	2009	Lost Cartwright
41.	MEXICO CITY	2035	Lost Doubleday
42.	VANCOUVER	2029	None
43.	CHICAGO	2015	Lost Doubleday
44.	CALIFORNIA	2018	None
45.	SEATTLE	2036	Lost Geoghegan
46.	CALIFORNIA	2026	None
47.	CHICAGO	2011	Lost Doubleday
48.	LAS VEGAS	1997	Lost Doubleday
49.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2043	Lost Cartwright
50.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2018	Lost Doubleday
51.	ROCKVILLE	2039	Lost Cartwright
52.	LOUISVILLE	2031	Lost Doubleday
53.	CALIFORNIA	2028	Lost Geoghegan
54.	CALIFORNIA	2039	Lost Geoghegan
55.	EDMONTON	2043	Lost Geoghegan
56.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2042	Lost Doubleday
57.	OMAHA	2026	Lost Doubleday
58.	HUNTSVILLE	2029	Lost Doubleday
59.	CALIFORNIA	2001	None
60.	OMAHA	2023	Lost Doubleday
61.	LAS VEGAS	2020	Lost Cartwright
62.	MADISON	2001	Lost Landis
63.	HACKENSACK	1995	Lost Doubleday
64.	CALIFORNIA	1998	None
65.	LAS VEGAS	2018	Lost Cartwright
66.	CALIFORNIA	2025	Lost Doubleday
67.	HUNTSVILLE	2025	Lost Cartwright
68.	NEW ORLEANS	2020	Lost Doubleday
69.	HAWAII	2006	Lost Cartwright
70.	VANCOUVER	1999	Won Landis
71.	VANCOUVER	2030	Lost Geoghegan
72.	MONTREAL	2027	Lost Cartwright
73.	DES MOINES	2005	Lost Doubleday
74.	MEXICO CITY	2039	Lost Geoghegan
75.	LOUISVILLE	2030	Won Landis
76.	CALIFORNIA	2012	None
77.	HAWAII	2009	Lost Doubleday
78.	CALGARY	2000	Lost Doubleday
79.	LAS VEGAS	2040	Won Landis
80.	YELLOW SPRINGS	2041	Lost Landis
81.	CALIFORNIA	2019	None
82.	VANCOUVER	2027	Lost Cartwright
83.	MADISON	2000	Lost Cartwright
84.	LAS VEGAS	2005	Won Landis
85.	MONTREAL	2011	Won Landis
86.	LAS VEGAS	2041	Lost Geoghegan
87.	VALENCIA	1998	Lost Doubleday
88.	MADISON	1998	Lost Cartwright
89.	MARQUETTE	2011	Lost Doubleday
90.	VANCOUVER	2026	None
91.	MEXICO CITY	2036	Lost Geoghegan
92.	CHICAGO	2040	None
93.	LOUISVILLE	2019	Lost Doubleday
94.	VANCOUVER	2020	None
95.	CALIFORNIA	2041	Lost Geoghegan
96.	MARQUETTE	2001	Lost Cartwright
97.	VALENCIA	1997	Lost Doubleday
98.	LOUISVILLE	2042	Won Landis
99.	HUNTSVILLE	2024	Lost Doubleday
99.	OMAHA	2024	Lost Cartwright

Below is a breakdown of the teams ranked in the respective hitting and pitching categories above in terms of what their playoff results were. The breakdown is Hitting/Pitching (so for example 1 team ranked in the top 10 hitting won the Landis, whereas 4 teams in the top 10 pitching did). It is worth noting that the Geoghegan round was not contested until 2021.

Top 10:
Won Landis : 1/4
Lost Landis : 2/0
Lost Cartwright : 5/3
Lost Doubleday : 0/3
Lost Geoghegan : 1/0
None : 1/0

Top 25:
Won Landis: 2/9
Lost Landis: 6/2
Lost Cartwright : 9/6
Lost Doubleday : 7/7
Lost Geoghegan : 1/1
None : 2/0

Top 50:
Won Landis : 5/10
Lost Landis : 7/4
Lost Cartwright : 12/10
Lost Doubleday : 20/18
Lost Geoghegan : 2/5
None : 4/3

Top 100:
Won Landis : 8/16
Lost Landis : 17/6
Lost Cartwright : 26/21
Lost Doubleday : 35/34
Lost Geoghegan: 3/13
None : 11/10

Looks like pitching helps.

Man, I really don't like when data seems to disagree with the general impression I'd formed. Not because it I'm concerned I might be wrong but because now I need an explanation for my wrong impression, or an explanation of what the data is showing incorrectly. For example, does this accurately compare teams head to head in the playoffs?

How many of these are the same teams? Near top in both hitting and pitching? And does that matter?
I think it does. I'd like to see teams categorized by both factors. A team that has a top 5 offense one year and top 10 pitching, or 10th in offense and 2nd in pitching. I want to compare the playoff results of the teams that had top 5 offense and middle of the road pitching to top pitching and middle of the road offense. If we're doing letter grades for hitting/pitching. It's not the A/B+ vs B/A+ matchup that interests me. It's A/C versus C/A.

Who are these teams losing to?

Is there bias in which teams made the playoffs more?
11 of the top pitching teams didn't make the playoffs, compared to 10 on the top hitting side. So that seems fair.

The other question is how many of those teams were near the top in both hitting and pitching.

The lack of park factor info bothers me, too (not Randy's fault. It's just tough).

Again, not overly criticizing Randy's work. The nature of most data is to prompt more questions, not provide answers. It's great when you get clear answers, but that doesn't happen as often as you'd think.

Ted wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:09 am

Man, I really don't like when data seems to disagree with the general impression I'd formed. Not because it I'm concerned I might be wrong but because now I need an explanation for my wrong impression, or an explanation of what the data is showing incorrectly. For example, does this accurately compare teams head to head in the playoffs?

How many of these are the same teams? Near top in both hitting and pitching? And does that matter?
I think it does. I'd like to see teams categorized by both factors. A team that has a top 5 offense one year and top 10 pitching, or 10th in offense and 2nd in pitching. I want to compare the playoff results of the teams that had top 5 offense and middle of the road pitching to top pitching and middle of the road offense. If we're doing letter grades for hitting/pitching. It's not the A/B+ vs B/A+ matchup that interests me. It's A/C versus C/A.

Who are these teams losing to?

Is there bias in which teams made the playoffs more?
11 of the top pitching teams didn't make the playoffs, compared to 10 on the top hitting side. So that seems fair.

The other question is how many of those teams were near the top in both hitting and pitching.

The lack of park factor info bothers me, too (not Randy's fault. It's just tough).

Again, not overly criticizing Randy's work. The nature of most data is to prompt more questions, not provide answers. It's great when you get clear answers, but that doesn't happen as often as you'd think.

I also have how the 2 landis teams each season fared against their peers in both hitting and pitching, will post that as soon as it is formatted, I will compile my own thoughts. Some thoughts of mine below.

-It was interesting to me to see the massive disparity in teams outside the top 25 losing in the Geoghegan between pitching and hitting. I wonder if this does help illustrate Ted's point that balanced staffs (which are probably more likely to be featured on this list given that the top 100 is still less than 10% of all BBA seasons in the modern era) run into problems in short series.

-It does look like when you have an elite pitching vs elite hitting Landis, pitching wins.

I think there is a tendency to focus on hitting over pitching just because offense scores and defense does not. We understand offense--or we think we do. But Pitching is partlymystical ability to create weak hitters, and partly defense. My guess is, for a simple example, the game is 45% offense, 45% pitching, and 10% defense. If true, this means that a great pitching/defense machine has an advantage that won't be as easy to see in the eye-test.

I sure hope pitching wins this year...

Here's an interesting correlation study. I pulled the end-of-season data for my Plays Above Average measure, and let Excel tell me the correlation between it and both Pitching Runs Allowed and Pitching Earned Runs Allowed. As would be hoped, the correlation is very strong.

	PAA	R	ER
PAA	1
R	-0.693	1
ER	-0.677	0.994	1

Here's one that makes me even happier. My little PAA score correlates better to R Allowed and ER Allowed better than OOTP's combined team ZR.

	ZR	PAA	R	ER
ZR	1.000
PAA	0.889	1.000
R	-0.551	-0.693	1.000
ER	-0.534	-0.677	0.994	1.000

Here is a breakdown of Landis teams and how they ranked against their peers. The breakdown is HITTING/PITCHING and combines both leagues. This will help answer Ted's question about how unbalanced teams fare against each other.

24 TEAM ERA:
1995 Chicago (1/3) Defeats Des Moines (11/8)
1996 Chicago (9/12) Defeats Austin (OMA) (13/3)
1997 Hackensack (RCK) (6/1) Defeats Baltimore (BRK) (3/9)
1998 Des Moines (7/4) Defeats Chicago (6/18)
1999 Vancouver (14/2) Defeats Buffalo (SFV) (10/9)
2000 Vancouver (14/4) Defeats Des Moines (5/9)
2001 Las Vegas (7/6) Defeats Madison (3/2)
2002 California (SAC) (16/1) Defeats Seattle (4/16)
2003 Las Vegas (7/4) Defeats California (SAC) (18/1)
2004 Madison (2/1) Defeats New Orleans (1/12)
2005 Las Vegas (9/3) Defeats Baltimore (BRK) (2/12)
2006 Las Vegas (2/1) Defeats Vancouver (9/3)
2007 Des Moines (18/3) Defeats Greenville (JAX) (5/7)
2008 Las Vegas (6/1) Defeats Vancouver (18/3)
2009 Madison (3/6) Defeats Las Vegas (2/4)
2010 Hawaii (11/1) Defeats Atlantic City (3/4)
2011 Montreal (10/7) Defeats Omaha (Mex) (2/7)
2012 New Orleans (7/6) Defeats Madison (9/5)
2013 Baltimore (BRK) (6/14) Defeats Seattle (1/8)
2014 New Orleans (12/6) Defeats Valencia (6/4)
2015 Birmingham (SA) (1/16) Defeats Louisville (8/7)
2016 New Orleans (6/3) Defeats California (SAC) (18/1)
2017 Halifax (NSH) (2/17) Defeats Carolina (RCK) (1/11)
2018 Calgary (7/8) Defeats Halifax (NSH) (2/10)
2019 New Orleans (5/7) Defeats Yellow Springs (10/5)
2020 Carolina (RCK) (7/4) Defeats Halifax (NSH) (1/12)
2021 Calgary (2/8) Defeats Louisville (3/3)
2022 Atlantic City (5/6) Defeats Brooklyn (4/22)
2023 Huntsville (CHI) (13/8) Defeats Indianapolis (OMA) (1/5)
2024 California (SAC) (19/1) Defeats Atlantic City (1/16)
2025 Hawaii (5/3) Defeats Birmingham (SA) (4/5)
2026 Brooklyn (6/20) Defeats New Orleans (14/10)
2027 Las Vegas (1/3) Defeats Omaha (MEX) (20/6)
2028 Huntsville (CHI) (4/4) Defeats New Orleans (3/12)

28 TEAM ERA:
2029 Long Beach (1/11) Defeats Las Vegas (7/8)
2030 Louisville (2/2) Defeats Las Vegas (1/9)
2031 Jacksonville (3/14) Defeats Yellow Springs (8/2)
2032 Louisville (8/3) Defeats Charm City (10/7)
2033 Jacksonville (4/10) Defeats Yellow Springs (2/2)
2034 Havana (SFV) (9/1) Defeats Louisville (4/11)

30 TEAM ERA:
2035 California (SAC) (19/1) Defeats Rockville (8/3)
2036 Rockville (6/6) Defeats San Fernando (9/14)
2037 Rockville (6/2) Defeats San Fernando (1/15)
2038 Edmonton (7/5) Defeats Las Vegas (6/13)
2039 Jacksonville (16/9) Defeats Calgary (8/13)

32 TEAM ERA:
2040 Las Vegas (12/2) Defeats Louisville (1/15)
2041 Edmonton (3/15) Defeats Yellow Springs (2/2)
2042 Louisville (1/2) Defeats Edmonton (8/3)
2043 Louisville (7/16) Defeats Rockville (8/5)

RonCo wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:36 am

I think there is a tendency to focus on hitting over pitching just because offense scores and defense does not. We understand offense--or we think we do. But Pitching is partly mystical ability to create weak hitters, and partly defense. My guess is, for a simple example, the game is 45% offense, 45% pitching, and 10% defense. If true, this means that a great pitching/defense machine has an advantage that won't be as easy to see in the eye-test.

Agreed. I think pitching is also helped out by the defense behind them, more around the 15% range. You could have above-average pitching but "elite" defense and all of a sudden, the pitching is also looking "elite."

I'll pull some data from this later, Randy. But it's funny that I was involved in the most lopsided matchup, and the result is the OPPOSITE of my speculation.

2024 California (SAC) (19/1) Defeats Atlantic City (1/16)

I can relate Edmonton to a lot of the discussion in this thread. I believe our pitching good in part because our defense is great, although I think park factors are likely to have more effect.

Also, every Landis my team (Halifax or Edmonton) was in was lopsided in some way. Someone had either an elite offense, or pitching. I don’t think my teams played in any Landis where a team in the Landis wasn’t too in the league in one of those categories.

What’s interesting about this data is how often who I would deem the underdog wins. I always had feelings that this happened, but I haven’t seen it in this format. There are times the better statistical team wins, but it seems less often.

Ted wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:39 am

I'll pull some data from this later, Randy. But it's funny that I was involved in the most lopsided matchup, and the result is the OPPOSITE of my speculation.

2024 California (SAC) (19/1) Defeats Atlantic City (1/16)

o I saw that one. On the other hand your 2037 Crusaders (the best staff ever at run prevention), lost in the doubleday to my Bears (the best offense ever at scoring runs) so you have that on your side.

Also amusing to me that when I won my Landis I allowed the fewest runs in the league.

2004 Madison #1 hitting & #1 pitching. Winner of landis. Are they the only one?

CTBrewCrew wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:35 pm

2004 Madison #1 hitting & #1 pitching. Winner of landis. Are they the only one?

Madison was #2 in hitting that year, they beat the #1 team in New Orleans...