I went back and gleaned the last twenty pitchers* who suffered the injury and looked at what happened to their ratings when they returned from the injury and a year after returning, comparing it to their ratings at the time of their injury. *One of the injuries happened to an offensive player, so he was not included and the data set is the last 19 radial nerve compression surgeries to pitchers.
Here is the data, which is too big to post a screenshot:
Findings:
- Skills-wise, seven pitchers (37%) saw a drop in ratings when returning from surgery, while twelve (63%) did not see an initial skills rating drop, including five who experienced bumps. Ratings are volatile, so it could have just been the natural ebb and flow of ratings at the time of the snapshot. Fast-forward to a year after recovery (or anywhere from 16-21 months from the time of the injury), ten pitchers* (59%) saw a drop in ratings from their initial skills while seven pitchers (41%) did not see a drop. *Two of the nineteen pitcher have not yet reached a year since their return.
- Potential overall ratings-wise, twelve pitchers (63%) saw scouts lower their potential overall ratings when returning from surgery, while seven (37%) did not see an initial potential overall ratings drop, with just one pitcher experiencing a bump. Fast-forward to a year after recovery, thirteen pitchers* (76%) saw a drop in potential overall ratings while four pitchers (24%) did not see a drop. *Two of the nineteen pitcher have not yet reached a year since their return.
- Velocity went virtual unchanged post-surgery.
- Several pitchers were starters at the time of the injury but became relievers afterwards. Was it due to stamina drops (see Carson Stoller)? Finding stamina ratings would admittedly take a little extra work, but it might be worth looking at.
- Unfortunately for Browning and Louisville, we've never seen a pitcher of Browning's ability have to come back from this injury, however some notable names are on the list: Manuel Orozco (injury in 2039), Carson Stoller (2037) and Ken Bates (2036). For the most part, Bates was the only one to stay relatively the same pitcher a few years later, however all three pitchers are still pitching in the Brewster today.
- Naturally, it seems younger pitchers tend to ward off lumping ratings better than pitchers 28 and up, so this does bode well for Browning.
- While not noted in the spreadsheet, I would say 33-50% of the pitchers had injury ratings of Fragile or Wrecked. While we don't know if those health ratings were that way before the injury, it's something to note.
