BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
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BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
As before, for entertainment purposes only.
I covered five rounds because that's the first 200 picks and that seemed sufficient; anyone who makes it after pick 200 in this draft is probably beyond my crystal ball. I also only review players who were not autopicked. If you don't pick 'em yourself, you don't get a writeup. Telling you that the computer picked really well for you shouldn't make you glow with pride, even if - as we all know - you feel just a little bit impressed with your ability to trust in technology.
Worst value picks, as always, are based on whether the players should have been drafted as highly as they were, not the overall quality of the players. (I think that will become apparent upon reading it.) Consider them "reach" picks, not "bust" picks. Given the nature of development, it's silly to call anyone a bust at this point; some of the hitters I've knocked in this draft in particular could be perennial .300 hitters once they develop. The worst value category is only first rounders, because only a twit would bother telling you that your second rounder was really a third rounder.
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Link to the draft: https://statsplus.net/brewster/draft?league=100#current
(No, I will not provide you with a kajillion links. The key for each of these picks is (Team, pick number); you can find them yourself. Open another window or something.)
Best draft:
In my mind, Des Moines had the best draft this year, and it's not close. I love the Butler pick, and Deron Alexander has top of the rotation stuff and movement. There's a non-zero chance that Des Moines got the #1 and #2 prospect in this draft drafting 6 and 8, which is crazy but speaks to both my opinion of their talent evaluation skills and the balanced nature of this draft. Antonio Ramirez is a good get in this draft in the third round. They gave it up to the machine after that, but even some of their autopicks are pretty good for their spots, like Mark Langley and Carl Clements. This has happened before, BTW: I gave them top marks in the 2024 draft, when they got franchise home run leader William Moreland, though Elwood Blues didn't make it really.
(Side note: Most people forget that Jared Gillstrom was actually drafted by Des Moines in 2022 and was traded straight up for Mike Davis, who had some modest success for a few years but ended with 12 WAR. Consider this a cautionary tale, Mr. Webb.)
Honorable Mention:
Chicago had a heckuva draft; I liked their entire Round 1 and 2 and they had an okay flier pick in Round 3 and 5. I thought Omaha did really well, too; I'm high on Patenaude and I think they did well in Rounds 2 and 3. Sacramento, Yellow Springs, Calgary, Edmonton, and Rockville appear a few times. San Antonio had a lot of picks.
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Best value picks (in order of selection number):
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SP Chris Thompson (Portland, 4): Thompson is the #1 talent in this draft, a significant if not special lefty starter who does just about everything well and could be very special with some increased velocity. Critics will note that he has a long way to go to develop fully, unlike #1 overall pick Gerald Sizemore. Maybe the only legitimate possibility for a #1 starter in this draft, though I might be underselling a couple guys...
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SP Deron Alexander (Des Moines, 6): Like this guy. Alexander is one of just six pitchers with an 8 stuff potential and one of just six players who are projected to be viable major leaguers with at least seven movement potential. Has the ability to go deep into ballgames and like Thompson, no injury history. He could also be a #1 type starter. This isn't to put down Gerald Sizemore, who is a justifiable pick at #1, but Alexander and Thompson are both #1 quality choices and went #4 and #6 and that's good.
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C Dave Butler (Des Moines, 8): Welcome to Jeopardy. Here's the clue: Ron Shiplack, Pedro Gomez, Rainer Scheffer. Who are all the catchers in the BBA with an 8 contact rating, Alex? What else do all those three players have in common? They're RIGHTIES. Butler switch-hits. We get all the way to 11 players if we expand to a 7 contact rating, including most of the top guys, but Butler's a rarity. I think he could have gone as high as second in this draft.
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SS Jeff Patenaude (Omaha, 13): Here's another clue: Wilson Andrade, Daniel Pepper, Pepe Espinosa, Quinn Richardson, Jake Williams. Who are all the BBA shortstops with a seven power potential? If we expand this to the entire minor leagues it's twelve players, though if we sort it by greater than 5 contact it's five players in the entire BBA system. Shortstops with pop are very much a rarity. I think he's at least five spots low, and I hold to the fact that I would have taken him over Washington.
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SP Kenny Kelly (Vancouver, 16): If the worst thing about a guy you can say is that you think he's pretty good but lacks elite upside, well, that guy's probably pretty good. Kelly has four pitches he can throw for strikes, is almost 100% developed and has good velocity. He's durable, too. He could literally step into Vancouver's rotation tomorrow. 16's not insane for him, but I feel like he could have gone higher.
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RP/SP Mal Byrd (Chicago, 29): I liked this pick better before we saw his control rating drop (and I'm sure so did Chicago), but it could pop back up again. Byrd has spectacular movement and quality stuff, and I'd want to try him out at starter before I settled for him as a setup guy or closer. He's fragile and has warts but he could be one of the best picks in the draft.
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C/1B/DH Manuel Moreno (Rockville, 35): Did you notice the conversation I had about Dave Butler? Well, that applies to Moreno, who will be a very marginal defensive catcher but should be very good at the plate for a catcher. Don't believe me? Well, if you squint hard enough, Moreno looks like Roelof Klooster offensively and might be better than Parker Davenport at the plate. He's also an average first baseman and runs, too.
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SP Vincent Louis (Edmonton, 47): Honestly, I don't get this one, but I guess I also won't try to get it. Louis was considered by scouts a top ten starting prospect and went in the S1. He's expensive ($9 million) but he's also durable, has good intangibles, and might be able to throw three pitches for strikes. Still: I don't get it. He won't get it unless he gets his changeup.
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SP Aaron Anderson (Sacramento, 48): Anderson gets bonus points for a nearly developed changeup and for being a durable lefty, though there's a good chance if he doesn't gain velocity he'll only be a very good lefty reliever. Like that's so easy to get. This one's in List 1 more on feel than on fact; he could have easily dropped to List 3, but I like him. Should be real good in Sacramento's park too.
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SP Jorge Deleon (Jacksonville, 52): DeLeon gets big props from me for being a big groundballer and only needing (seemingly) to develop his stuff, though there are high sixes and low sixes and middle sixes. A six for all seasons! A six in every pot. He might not have a legitimate out pitch, but I like him.
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C Louis Fernandez (Valencia, 61): One of the easier additions to this list, Fernandez was the second-best pure hitter at catcher, can call a game, and could be a very reasonable starter some day even if he can't throw out Bing de-Zhao or Felipe Vega stealing second.
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1B Anibal Benavides (Omaha, 62): Benavides is not only going to exactly the right team for his skillset, but he's one of a handful of players in this draft with his kind of power potential (6 viable players maybe) and while his game is full of holes right now he's just 18 years old. Seems like good value for the spot.
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C Carl Thibodeaux (Hawaii, 73): Might be a sneaky starting catcher at some point, which is a good get at #73. Unlike some of the guys who went in front of him who were catchers, has at least an okay arm.
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RP Mark Young (Chicago, 79): Young is a nice find late in the second round, a pitcher who looks as if he could be a very productive reliever. Good groundballer, good stuff, probably improves with a conversion and nice movement.
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SP Jeffrey Barry (Rockville, 85): Somehow, a starting pitcher with a 50 rating made its way all the way to #85. Barry doesn't look like much, and his intangibles are absolutely atrocious, but as a value pick? Yeah, that's good value.
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OF Chris Cota (Chicago, 96): Cota is exactly the sort of fourth outfielder we all look for and usually have to look for in trade. Potentially good if inconsistent defensively with solid plate skills across the board, Cota was one of the highest rated outfielders in the draft, which again says more about the draft than Cota.
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1B Antonio Ramirez (Des Moines, 109): Told you they had a good draft. Squint and you see Anthony Allen in the Ramirez pick, just 91 picks later.
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RP Bill Young (Edmonton, 131): Hard-throwing lefty relievers who are eligible for reliever conversions and are just 19 years old get attention from me. Young was one of the best picks in the third round for me based on ceiling.
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2B Joseph Allen Maldonado-Passage (Madison, 149): Just a good pick for the spot. Another player with absolutely no at bats (is this a thing now?), the switch-hitter has a noticeable lefty platoon and could legitimately be a cheap starter at the pivot if he develops defensively.
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RP Ryan Harmon (Twin Cities, 157): Harmon is a lefty with a clue; he's a little like Bill Young but durable and doesn't throw nearly as hard. He'd probably have to get some natural velocity even after the conversion to really make it, but stranger things have happened.
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RP Ron Haynes (Louisville, 167): Another lefty with a clue. Haynes is a bit concerning to me because he isn't well-regarded even despite throwing in the mid-90s as an old 18, but if he picks up velocity and/or gets a conversion he looks like a major league prospect, and that's not bad for late in the 4th.
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SS Carl McFayden (Boise, 192): His scouting report says he lacks an edge, which I can only assume means that he's a perfect sphere - he's an actual baseball! A shortstop whose defense is good for a teenager, McFayden might not be totally clueless as a hitter and could be a major league utility guy if he fully develops, though the fact that he can't run isn't good. We're in Round 5 though here, folks.
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RP Dave Lovell (Rockville, 198): Lovell is a lefty with a clue like Haynes and Harmon except less stuff and way more movement; also a bit of a bargain since he went 31 picks after Haynes.
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Worst value picks (in order of selection number):
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CF Mike Brodt (Charlotte, 2): What's with all the players who never had an at bat in college? Brodt is a special case, too, since he's apparently gone four college years without taking an at bat, in part because he's a late bloomer but also because he's very underdeveloped for a 22 year old. Still, it's weird to go four years without a single at bat. He could also be a .400 OBP player, but he could also be nothing at all. He's a gamble; I'd have taken him lower.
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1B George Washington (Jacksonville, 3): I mentioned this on the podcast, but Washington's zero high school at bats give me pause. He's also going to have issues with consistency late in the count and isn't well-developed for a 19 year old. I understand that he might have been the best-rated pure hitter in this particular draft, but I'd have gone pitching and left him for someone else. Where are these guys getting their hitting skills, the batting cages? Secret late night grudge matches?
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1B Justin Propenzicotti (Brooklyn, 20): In what universe would you want this guy starting at first base or DH? Powerless hitter who won't even be consistent at the plate who's a righty? I guess he'd be fine at shortstop or catcher, but he's not a first rounder. If I accidentally took this guy I'd take a blind #21 pick.
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SP Jim Watson (Nashville, 22): There were better players on the board of his type, and he's changeup dependent. He's really more of a second rounder, though they do have a reasonable chance of converting him into a productive reliever if he doesn't get his changeup.
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3B Katsunosuki Honda (Boise, 30): Yes, I know, this wouldn't have even been a first rounder ten years ago, but it is now. Honda is a doubles power third baseman who's not good defensively and can't take a walk. He's a great fielder for a pitcher, though he can't pitch. He can steal bases but can't run the bases. I'd have taken someone less flawed.
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Keep an eye on:
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SP Ron Smith (Valencia, 12): Basically the same writeup as Kenny Kelly, except that I think Smith got chosen in the right spot. He's a highly developed player too and has some talent, but 12 seems about right for him.
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1B Anthony Allen (Montreal, 17): Allen's criticism isn't that far off of Washington, but he went #17. What's with all the highly rated hitters with no at bats? Allen is probably around the right spot for this draft, though maybe a little high, too.
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SP Jeff Doane (San Antonio, 31): Guy blew out his elbow and he's just 18 years old. Just barely escaped the busts section, I think, because doctors think he'll recover. There are worse projects to have than this guy, even if he's changeup-dependent.
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RP Louis Martinez (Boise, 43): Martinez was considered far and away the #1 pure reliever in the draft, but he blew out his arm before the draft. He won't throw a pitch for at least a year. Yes, this might find its way into my busts section except that doctors think he'll recover and there's a non-zero chance he becomes a starting pitcher. Section 3 is just right for this guy.
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2B Antonio Castro (Rockville, 46): In a bubble, would you rather have Castro or Reilly Eddy, who went thirteen spots above him? I don't know either, but it's at least a good discussion. Castro was the best lefty-hitting middle infielder in this draft, which says more about the draft than it does Castro.
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SP Jeff Dineen (San Antonio, 54): Dineen reaches the upper 90s on the gun at age 19, a rarity. So why isn't he in List 1? Well, you'd like to see him have a ten fastball if he throws that hard; his command might not be so great. Still, if he increases his velocity past his current rocket speed, he could maybe be a #3 starter and that's an interesting player.
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RP Michael Shepard (Madison, 63): Shepard definitely isn't a List 1 player, but his versatility will make him a very interesting player to watch. In that way he'll be valuable, but his current standing makes him potentially a 4-A pitcher. If he throws considerably harder he could be a #3 starter, and he's only an old 18 right now. If he doesn't throw harder, he'd make a great reliever conversion. He's also fragile so he could also be working at Wal-Mart in two years.
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P Antonio Rivera (Montreal, 65): Rivera is a hard-throwing lefty who probably makes a solid starting pitcher if he had more endurance. High intelligence guy also spent seven years in college getting his master's degree over two continents. Total bargain if he has six endurance but he would have never gone this low.
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2B Bill Moody (Twin Cities, 72): One of very few players in this draft with this kind of power, and a middle infielder. Feels a little like one of those guys you hope will respond to coaching. He missed the bargain list just because he's so raw, but if he finds another gear they might have found a sneaky starter.
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SS Wilbur McGreer (Mexico City, 74): McGreer has very developed defensive skills and potentially an okay bat. Wouldn't be nearly as valuable if they played him at second base, which seems to be where he'll land in the majors.
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RP Matt Spencer (Sascramento, 81): Similar to Mark Young right before him, he's a nice find in the second round; a potentially pretty good reliever who might benefit from a conversion. I like Young better than Spencer, but Spencer could possibly be just as good a conversion.
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RP Jon Whaley (Louisville, 86): The catch on this guy is he's already a very hard throwing reliever, but I'd be interested in finding out what happens when he goes to 100+.
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C Hollis O'Hara (Yellow Springs, 90): Could be a sneaky lame cheap catcher starter; hits lefty, not good but not entirely clueless at the plate, and has a gun for an arm.
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3B Francisco Diaz (New Orleans, 98): Different plate skills than Katusnosuki Honda, but I think I'd just as soon take Diaz. Says more about the Honda pick than the Diaz pick, thus Group 3.
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2B/1B/AAAA player Eddy Wingerden (Chicago, 100): Just like the Diaz description above, Wingerden is largely included for comparison to Justin Propenzicotti. Squint and they're the same player, except Wingerden will be a lot better defensive player at first base.
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SP Brad Cansimbe (Omaha, 112): A good flier pick at the spot, Cansimbe just seems a little better than picks around him but it's hard to say right now whether he's a prospect.
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RP Pedro Calderon (Montreal, 115): A potentially usable lefty reliever who can be converted, you could see him in the majors as a LOOGY or a legit reliever.
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SP Dave Harrell (Boise, 125): A modestly interesting lefty starter who throws groundballs and has his changeup started in his teens? A good project to have maybe.
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SP Fernando Murillo (Chicago, 128): Another sort of flier pitcher, but we're deep into Round 3. He has some major league skills and is just a name to know late.
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RP Javier Baca (Sacramento, 137): Missed the bargains list because he is heavily underdeveloped at age 22, but he's a legitimate bullpen candidate if he gets everything; potential sixth man in a bullpen alert.
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OF Edgar Gary (Yellow Springs, 138): I'd feel better about Gary if I could see that he was developing a platoon factor or had any development at all, which is all that's keeping him off list #1. He also has good intangibles.
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RP Paul Burton (Wichita, 139): A soft-tossing lefty who might be a major leaguer with some additional velocity, or could just as easily be organizational filler.
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RP/SP Robbie Baldwin (Calgary, 153): Baldwin has a torn UCL and isn't going to throw a single pitch in 2044. Pretty decent college career and fully developed, we could see Baldwin be totally useless, or a sneaky fifth starter type if they convert him to a starter, or a fifth guy in a bullpen. Major arm injury keeps him in Group #3 (and kept him from being drafted fifty spots higher).
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C Rafael Elias (Chicago, 162): Notice how the word "Chicago" keeps repeating? I think I may have found my new Tyler. Elias is a switch-hitting catcher who can field; I'd feel a little better about him if he had a righty platoon factor though.
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RP Ronnie Anderson (Rockville, 166): A potentially usable reliever after a conversion who's durable this late is a notable pick, though he's very raw.
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RP Jorge Silva (Calgary, 185): A well-developed college pitcher, Silva should benefit from a conversion and might be a major leaguer. Calgary made this list twice in a row, and both of the two guys on this list were as good their second rounder.
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RP Randall Secombe (Nashville, 188): Just a little cautionary tale to not get too excited about drafting a fully developed 4-A player, Secombe might never get a major league inning but he comes as a fully developed unremarkable lefty starter.
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1B Ben Daniels (New Orleans, 197): Simply don't want to miss out on having mentioned him if he develops into a 40-homer guy. Daniels' swing is holier than the Dalai Lama, but those three times out of fifty he makes contact, boy, does that ball fly.
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As always, some players who were expected to succeed will fail in this draft, and some players who you've never heard of and aren't anywhere in this document will exceed their owner's wildest dreams. Therein lies the fun.
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I covered five rounds because that's the first 200 picks and that seemed sufficient; anyone who makes it after pick 200 in this draft is probably beyond my crystal ball. I also only review players who were not autopicked. If you don't pick 'em yourself, you don't get a writeup. Telling you that the computer picked really well for you shouldn't make you glow with pride, even if - as we all know - you feel just a little bit impressed with your ability to trust in technology.
Worst value picks, as always, are based on whether the players should have been drafted as highly as they were, not the overall quality of the players. (I think that will become apparent upon reading it.) Consider them "reach" picks, not "bust" picks. Given the nature of development, it's silly to call anyone a bust at this point; some of the hitters I've knocked in this draft in particular could be perennial .300 hitters once they develop. The worst value category is only first rounders, because only a twit would bother telling you that your second rounder was really a third rounder.
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Link to the draft: https://statsplus.net/brewster/draft?league=100#current
(No, I will not provide you with a kajillion links. The key for each of these picks is (Team, pick number); you can find them yourself. Open another window or something.)
Best draft:
In my mind, Des Moines had the best draft this year, and it's not close. I love the Butler pick, and Deron Alexander has top of the rotation stuff and movement. There's a non-zero chance that Des Moines got the #1 and #2 prospect in this draft drafting 6 and 8, which is crazy but speaks to both my opinion of their talent evaluation skills and the balanced nature of this draft. Antonio Ramirez is a good get in this draft in the third round. They gave it up to the machine after that, but even some of their autopicks are pretty good for their spots, like Mark Langley and Carl Clements. This has happened before, BTW: I gave them top marks in the 2024 draft, when they got franchise home run leader William Moreland, though Elwood Blues didn't make it really.
(Side note: Most people forget that Jared Gillstrom was actually drafted by Des Moines in 2022 and was traded straight up for Mike Davis, who had some modest success for a few years but ended with 12 WAR. Consider this a cautionary tale, Mr. Webb.)
Honorable Mention:
Chicago had a heckuva draft; I liked their entire Round 1 and 2 and they had an okay flier pick in Round 3 and 5. I thought Omaha did really well, too; I'm high on Patenaude and I think they did well in Rounds 2 and 3. Sacramento, Yellow Springs, Calgary, Edmonton, and Rockville appear a few times. San Antonio had a lot of picks.
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Best value picks (in order of selection number):
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SP Chris Thompson (Portland, 4): Thompson is the #1 talent in this draft, a significant if not special lefty starter who does just about everything well and could be very special with some increased velocity. Critics will note that he has a long way to go to develop fully, unlike #1 overall pick Gerald Sizemore. Maybe the only legitimate possibility for a #1 starter in this draft, though I might be underselling a couple guys...
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SP Deron Alexander (Des Moines, 6): Like this guy. Alexander is one of just six pitchers with an 8 stuff potential and one of just six players who are projected to be viable major leaguers with at least seven movement potential. Has the ability to go deep into ballgames and like Thompson, no injury history. He could also be a #1 type starter. This isn't to put down Gerald Sizemore, who is a justifiable pick at #1, but Alexander and Thompson are both #1 quality choices and went #4 and #6 and that's good.
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C Dave Butler (Des Moines, 8): Welcome to Jeopardy. Here's the clue: Ron Shiplack, Pedro Gomez, Rainer Scheffer. Who are all the catchers in the BBA with an 8 contact rating, Alex? What else do all those three players have in common? They're RIGHTIES. Butler switch-hits. We get all the way to 11 players if we expand to a 7 contact rating, including most of the top guys, but Butler's a rarity. I think he could have gone as high as second in this draft.
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SS Jeff Patenaude (Omaha, 13): Here's another clue: Wilson Andrade, Daniel Pepper, Pepe Espinosa, Quinn Richardson, Jake Williams. Who are all the BBA shortstops with a seven power potential? If we expand this to the entire minor leagues it's twelve players, though if we sort it by greater than 5 contact it's five players in the entire BBA system. Shortstops with pop are very much a rarity. I think he's at least five spots low, and I hold to the fact that I would have taken him over Washington.
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SP Kenny Kelly (Vancouver, 16): If the worst thing about a guy you can say is that you think he's pretty good but lacks elite upside, well, that guy's probably pretty good. Kelly has four pitches he can throw for strikes, is almost 100% developed and has good velocity. He's durable, too. He could literally step into Vancouver's rotation tomorrow. 16's not insane for him, but I feel like he could have gone higher.
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RP/SP Mal Byrd (Chicago, 29): I liked this pick better before we saw his control rating drop (and I'm sure so did Chicago), but it could pop back up again. Byrd has spectacular movement and quality stuff, and I'd want to try him out at starter before I settled for him as a setup guy or closer. He's fragile and has warts but he could be one of the best picks in the draft.
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C/1B/DH Manuel Moreno (Rockville, 35): Did you notice the conversation I had about Dave Butler? Well, that applies to Moreno, who will be a very marginal defensive catcher but should be very good at the plate for a catcher. Don't believe me? Well, if you squint hard enough, Moreno looks like Roelof Klooster offensively and might be better than Parker Davenport at the plate. He's also an average first baseman and runs, too.
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SP Vincent Louis (Edmonton, 47): Honestly, I don't get this one, but I guess I also won't try to get it. Louis was considered by scouts a top ten starting prospect and went in the S1. He's expensive ($9 million) but he's also durable, has good intangibles, and might be able to throw three pitches for strikes. Still: I don't get it. He won't get it unless he gets his changeup.
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SP Aaron Anderson (Sacramento, 48): Anderson gets bonus points for a nearly developed changeup and for being a durable lefty, though there's a good chance if he doesn't gain velocity he'll only be a very good lefty reliever. Like that's so easy to get. This one's in List 1 more on feel than on fact; he could have easily dropped to List 3, but I like him. Should be real good in Sacramento's park too.
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SP Jorge Deleon (Jacksonville, 52): DeLeon gets big props from me for being a big groundballer and only needing (seemingly) to develop his stuff, though there are high sixes and low sixes and middle sixes. A six for all seasons! A six in every pot. He might not have a legitimate out pitch, but I like him.
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C Louis Fernandez (Valencia, 61): One of the easier additions to this list, Fernandez was the second-best pure hitter at catcher, can call a game, and could be a very reasonable starter some day even if he can't throw out Bing de-Zhao or Felipe Vega stealing second.
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1B Anibal Benavides (Omaha, 62): Benavides is not only going to exactly the right team for his skillset, but he's one of a handful of players in this draft with his kind of power potential (6 viable players maybe) and while his game is full of holes right now he's just 18 years old. Seems like good value for the spot.
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C Carl Thibodeaux (Hawaii, 73): Might be a sneaky starting catcher at some point, which is a good get at #73. Unlike some of the guys who went in front of him who were catchers, has at least an okay arm.
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RP Mark Young (Chicago, 79): Young is a nice find late in the second round, a pitcher who looks as if he could be a very productive reliever. Good groundballer, good stuff, probably improves with a conversion and nice movement.
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SP Jeffrey Barry (Rockville, 85): Somehow, a starting pitcher with a 50 rating made its way all the way to #85. Barry doesn't look like much, and his intangibles are absolutely atrocious, but as a value pick? Yeah, that's good value.
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OF Chris Cota (Chicago, 96): Cota is exactly the sort of fourth outfielder we all look for and usually have to look for in trade. Potentially good if inconsistent defensively with solid plate skills across the board, Cota was one of the highest rated outfielders in the draft, which again says more about the draft than Cota.
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1B Antonio Ramirez (Des Moines, 109): Told you they had a good draft. Squint and you see Anthony Allen in the Ramirez pick, just 91 picks later.
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RP Bill Young (Edmonton, 131): Hard-throwing lefty relievers who are eligible for reliever conversions and are just 19 years old get attention from me. Young was one of the best picks in the third round for me based on ceiling.
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2B Joseph Allen Maldonado-Passage (Madison, 149): Just a good pick for the spot. Another player with absolutely no at bats (is this a thing now?), the switch-hitter has a noticeable lefty platoon and could legitimately be a cheap starter at the pivot if he develops defensively.
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RP Ryan Harmon (Twin Cities, 157): Harmon is a lefty with a clue; he's a little like Bill Young but durable and doesn't throw nearly as hard. He'd probably have to get some natural velocity even after the conversion to really make it, but stranger things have happened.
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RP Ron Haynes (Louisville, 167): Another lefty with a clue. Haynes is a bit concerning to me because he isn't well-regarded even despite throwing in the mid-90s as an old 18, but if he picks up velocity and/or gets a conversion he looks like a major league prospect, and that's not bad for late in the 4th.
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SS Carl McFayden (Boise, 192): His scouting report says he lacks an edge, which I can only assume means that he's a perfect sphere - he's an actual baseball! A shortstop whose defense is good for a teenager, McFayden might not be totally clueless as a hitter and could be a major league utility guy if he fully develops, though the fact that he can't run isn't good. We're in Round 5 though here, folks.
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RP Dave Lovell (Rockville, 198): Lovell is a lefty with a clue like Haynes and Harmon except less stuff and way more movement; also a bit of a bargain since he went 31 picks after Haynes.
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Worst value picks (in order of selection number):
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CF Mike Brodt (Charlotte, 2): What's with all the players who never had an at bat in college? Brodt is a special case, too, since he's apparently gone four college years without taking an at bat, in part because he's a late bloomer but also because he's very underdeveloped for a 22 year old. Still, it's weird to go four years without a single at bat. He could also be a .400 OBP player, but he could also be nothing at all. He's a gamble; I'd have taken him lower.
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1B George Washington (Jacksonville, 3): I mentioned this on the podcast, but Washington's zero high school at bats give me pause. He's also going to have issues with consistency late in the count and isn't well-developed for a 19 year old. I understand that he might have been the best-rated pure hitter in this particular draft, but I'd have gone pitching and left him for someone else. Where are these guys getting their hitting skills, the batting cages? Secret late night grudge matches?
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1B Justin Propenzicotti (Brooklyn, 20): In what universe would you want this guy starting at first base or DH? Powerless hitter who won't even be consistent at the plate who's a righty? I guess he'd be fine at shortstop or catcher, but he's not a first rounder. If I accidentally took this guy I'd take a blind #21 pick.
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SP Jim Watson (Nashville, 22): There were better players on the board of his type, and he's changeup dependent. He's really more of a second rounder, though they do have a reasonable chance of converting him into a productive reliever if he doesn't get his changeup.
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3B Katsunosuki Honda (Boise, 30): Yes, I know, this wouldn't have even been a first rounder ten years ago, but it is now. Honda is a doubles power third baseman who's not good defensively and can't take a walk. He's a great fielder for a pitcher, though he can't pitch. He can steal bases but can't run the bases. I'd have taken someone less flawed.
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Keep an eye on:
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SP Ron Smith (Valencia, 12): Basically the same writeup as Kenny Kelly, except that I think Smith got chosen in the right spot. He's a highly developed player too and has some talent, but 12 seems about right for him.
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1B Anthony Allen (Montreal, 17): Allen's criticism isn't that far off of Washington, but he went #17. What's with all the highly rated hitters with no at bats? Allen is probably around the right spot for this draft, though maybe a little high, too.
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SP Jeff Doane (San Antonio, 31): Guy blew out his elbow and he's just 18 years old. Just barely escaped the busts section, I think, because doctors think he'll recover. There are worse projects to have than this guy, even if he's changeup-dependent.
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RP Louis Martinez (Boise, 43): Martinez was considered far and away the #1 pure reliever in the draft, but he blew out his arm before the draft. He won't throw a pitch for at least a year. Yes, this might find its way into my busts section except that doctors think he'll recover and there's a non-zero chance he becomes a starting pitcher. Section 3 is just right for this guy.
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2B Antonio Castro (Rockville, 46): In a bubble, would you rather have Castro or Reilly Eddy, who went thirteen spots above him? I don't know either, but it's at least a good discussion. Castro was the best lefty-hitting middle infielder in this draft, which says more about the draft than it does Castro.
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SP Jeff Dineen (San Antonio, 54): Dineen reaches the upper 90s on the gun at age 19, a rarity. So why isn't he in List 1? Well, you'd like to see him have a ten fastball if he throws that hard; his command might not be so great. Still, if he increases his velocity past his current rocket speed, he could maybe be a #3 starter and that's an interesting player.
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RP Michael Shepard (Madison, 63): Shepard definitely isn't a List 1 player, but his versatility will make him a very interesting player to watch. In that way he'll be valuable, but his current standing makes him potentially a 4-A pitcher. If he throws considerably harder he could be a #3 starter, and he's only an old 18 right now. If he doesn't throw harder, he'd make a great reliever conversion. He's also fragile so he could also be working at Wal-Mart in two years.
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P Antonio Rivera (Montreal, 65): Rivera is a hard-throwing lefty who probably makes a solid starting pitcher if he had more endurance. High intelligence guy also spent seven years in college getting his master's degree over two continents. Total bargain if he has six endurance but he would have never gone this low.
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2B Bill Moody (Twin Cities, 72): One of very few players in this draft with this kind of power, and a middle infielder. Feels a little like one of those guys you hope will respond to coaching. He missed the bargain list just because he's so raw, but if he finds another gear they might have found a sneaky starter.
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SS Wilbur McGreer (Mexico City, 74): McGreer has very developed defensive skills and potentially an okay bat. Wouldn't be nearly as valuable if they played him at second base, which seems to be where he'll land in the majors.
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RP Matt Spencer (Sascramento, 81): Similar to Mark Young right before him, he's a nice find in the second round; a potentially pretty good reliever who might benefit from a conversion. I like Young better than Spencer, but Spencer could possibly be just as good a conversion.
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RP Jon Whaley (Louisville, 86): The catch on this guy is he's already a very hard throwing reliever, but I'd be interested in finding out what happens when he goes to 100+.
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C Hollis O'Hara (Yellow Springs, 90): Could be a sneaky lame cheap catcher starter; hits lefty, not good but not entirely clueless at the plate, and has a gun for an arm.
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3B Francisco Diaz (New Orleans, 98): Different plate skills than Katusnosuki Honda, but I think I'd just as soon take Diaz. Says more about the Honda pick than the Diaz pick, thus Group 3.
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2B/1B/AAAA player Eddy Wingerden (Chicago, 100): Just like the Diaz description above, Wingerden is largely included for comparison to Justin Propenzicotti. Squint and they're the same player, except Wingerden will be a lot better defensive player at first base.
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SP Brad Cansimbe (Omaha, 112): A good flier pick at the spot, Cansimbe just seems a little better than picks around him but it's hard to say right now whether he's a prospect.
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RP Pedro Calderon (Montreal, 115): A potentially usable lefty reliever who can be converted, you could see him in the majors as a LOOGY or a legit reliever.
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SP Dave Harrell (Boise, 125): A modestly interesting lefty starter who throws groundballs and has his changeup started in his teens? A good project to have maybe.
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SP Fernando Murillo (Chicago, 128): Another sort of flier pitcher, but we're deep into Round 3. He has some major league skills and is just a name to know late.
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RP Javier Baca (Sacramento, 137): Missed the bargains list because he is heavily underdeveloped at age 22, but he's a legitimate bullpen candidate if he gets everything; potential sixth man in a bullpen alert.
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OF Edgar Gary (Yellow Springs, 138): I'd feel better about Gary if I could see that he was developing a platoon factor or had any development at all, which is all that's keeping him off list #1. He also has good intangibles.
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RP Paul Burton (Wichita, 139): A soft-tossing lefty who might be a major leaguer with some additional velocity, or could just as easily be organizational filler.
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RP/SP Robbie Baldwin (Calgary, 153): Baldwin has a torn UCL and isn't going to throw a single pitch in 2044. Pretty decent college career and fully developed, we could see Baldwin be totally useless, or a sneaky fifth starter type if they convert him to a starter, or a fifth guy in a bullpen. Major arm injury keeps him in Group #3 (and kept him from being drafted fifty spots higher).
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C Rafael Elias (Chicago, 162): Notice how the word "Chicago" keeps repeating? I think I may have found my new Tyler. Elias is a switch-hitting catcher who can field; I'd feel a little better about him if he had a righty platoon factor though.
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RP Ronnie Anderson (Rockville, 166): A potentially usable reliever after a conversion who's durable this late is a notable pick, though he's very raw.
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RP Jorge Silva (Calgary, 185): A well-developed college pitcher, Silva should benefit from a conversion and might be a major leaguer. Calgary made this list twice in a row, and both of the two guys on this list were as good their second rounder.
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RP Randall Secombe (Nashville, 188): Just a little cautionary tale to not get too excited about drafting a fully developed 4-A player, Secombe might never get a major league inning but he comes as a fully developed unremarkable lefty starter.
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1B Ben Daniels (New Orleans, 197): Simply don't want to miss out on having mentioned him if he develops into a 40-homer guy. Daniels' swing is holier than the Dalai Lama, but those three times out of fifty he makes contact, boy, does that ball fly.
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As always, some players who were expected to succeed will fail in this draft, and some players who you've never heard of and aren't anywhere in this document will exceed their owner's wildest dreams. Therein lies the fun.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Booooooooo!!!!! Jeff Patenaude sucks and you suck for like him and should feel bad because you're a terrible person.
Also, very nice writeup and thanks for the effort.
Also, very nice writeup and thanks for the effort.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
as i mentioned earlier i was legitimately torn between keever and kelly at 15. Took keever thinking kelly would slip because there were a few guys with that profile still left. Love that pick for tyler though.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Isn't 2020 the year you're supposed to feel good because you're a terrible person?
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Factored in signability and then he decides to increase his demands anyway after the draft.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:25 pmSP Jim Watson (Nashville, 22): There were better players on the board of his type, and he's changeup dependent. He's really more of a second rounder, though they do have a reasonable chance of converting him into a productive reliever if he doesn't get his changeup.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Yeah, players are rude.Dington wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:01 pmFactored in signability and then he decides to increase his demands anyway after the draft.aaronweiner wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:25 pmSP Jim Watson (Nashville, 22): There were better players on the board of his type, and he's changeup dependent. He's really more of a second rounder, though they do have a reasonable chance of converting him into a productive reliever if he doesn't get his changeup.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
The reason Deron Alexander fell so far (certainly for me) was his $8m demand. I would have had him only his hard signing at $8m vs Sizemore's easy signing at $6m made the difference for a potential of 65 vs 60
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
I mean, yeah.
The Sizemore pick was utterly justifiable; a Sizemore in the hand may very well be worth a Alexander and a Thompson in the bush leagues. If he bumps it'll look especially good.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Signsbility is a big deal for Wichita.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Unless your name is Toto or Dorothy.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Good grief, Aaron. I would be both blind and insane after attempting this - great stuff. Lots to digest in here.
I will tell you I was really sweating whether Young would still be there by the time the draft came back around to me. I identified him and Byrd early as my top two targets, but was pretty sure I would only get one of them. Getting both was bliss.
I will tell you I was really sweating whether Young would still be there by the time the draft came back around to me. I identified him and Byrd early as my top two targets, but was pretty sure I would only get one of them. Getting both was bliss.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
I don't have to tell you that you corked me on Young for sure.HoosierVic wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:28 pmGood grief, Aaron. I would be both blind and insane after attempting this - great stuff. Lots to digest in here.
I will tell you I was really sweating whether Young would still be there by the time the draft came back around to me. I identified him and Byrd early as my top two targets, but was pretty sure I would only get one of them. Getting both was bliss.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
There is no better draft analyst in the OOTP world. Always great fun, Aaron.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
It's fun for me too.
Actually this was the most fun I've had doing this because I stopped after five rounds. I used to go to about 500 players and that just felt exhausting. If I went to round 25 here it would be 800 players and you'd have to peel me off the pavement.
I'll probably stick to this format for good now that we have 32 teams.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Brodt at #2 - had to happen. He's my custom ammy. Besides, while most will tell you you can never have too much pitching, you still have to score at least one run to win a game. The Run Support per game for most of my starters is embarrassing.
Nice piece!
Nice piece!
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Maybe that's the no at bats thing! I suspected it was possible but didn't check.
At any rate I understand the inclination. Remember, I'm not predicting that Brodt will fail; I was of the belief there were better values at #2. I also wrote he might be the best hitter in the draft.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Great piece, this is the stuff that makes the BBA so good. I just wish I knew enough to produce stuff like this. I enjoy reading these and it’s always a great night if I can go to sleep listening to a BBA podcast
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
I'm pretty sure I lead off with the disclaimer in my first draft article that it does not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all.
Previews are inherently flawed.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
Nigel, it's nice to know it's appreciated. I'm sure all the other podcasters agree.
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Re: BBA 2044 Amateur Draft: Best/Worst/Interesting Moves In The First Five Rounds
It might not sound as if I do at times but I love this league and everything in it. I joined in 2010 and ok, I've been flaky in the past, in & out, but I'm always here in the end.
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