Analysis of the First Round of the 2044 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a possible series analyzing this year's amateur draft. I used to do an article that went deep into the draft, looking at every player, analyzing the whole bunch to see if there were any super-deep bargains, and then we had 32 teams and 25 rounds and relative ratings and my head spun around on its axis and fell off when I tried. Just recently got it reattached. Expensive surgery - do not recommend. One star experience. Did not tip (though I do now involuntarily).

However, I might do a second round analysis and/or a bargains/busts/interesting article that's pared down to just the first two or three rounds. So this one might be the first of a few, or this might be it, I dunno.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present or past knowledge of anything at all. A stitch in time probably wouldn't save most of the writeups. Four and twenty blackbirds wrote this on four and twenty typewriters, and I just stole it and baked them in a pie. I hope they don't sing. Do not use as a syringe.

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First Round Analysis:


1. SP Gerald Sizemore (Wichita): Sizemore doesn't appear by any standards to be a special pitcher, probably topping out as a #2 starter. He doesn't throw especially hard, doesn't have great stamina, his stuff is pretty good and he really doesn't have one single defining trait, not one, except that he's maybe the most developed pitcher in the draft by a pretty sizeable margin. Plus, it could easily be argued there wasn't a surefire #1 in this draft, so rather than picking someone with a higher ceiling, Wichita chose the pitcher with the highest floor. Good durability will be a nice plus, though lousy intangibles won't help. Takeo Aoki (a late bloomer for Brooklyn) is the best comparison, and they should get a longer peak from Sizemore than Aoki has had.

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2. CF Mike Brodt (Charlotte): Brodt has the feel of the best position player in the draft, but there are some warts. He's a righty without much power, so he'll have to get a high OBP to achieve his fullest. He's got a good batting eye, but is a little prone to chasing bad pitches when behind in the count. He has good defensive tools, but he's slow and mediocre on the basepaths. He does have great intangibles and if he develops could be a ten-year regular. Best comparison is Gipper Kengos, one of the league's most notable busts in 2043 but who had back-to-back 3 WAR seasons before that.

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3. 1B George Washington (Jacksonville): Washington is a righty first baseman who suspiciously has an entire closet full of cherrywood bats. A pitcher with two HS innings and no at bats at the level, Washington nonetheless impressed scouts with his batting eye and power potential, a real Moneyball-type player. He's going to the right ballpark for his skillset, even if he's very unlikely to get there any time soon. Great intangibles, even if he's been known to be a little rebellious of authority at times. Enjoys night winter boating.

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4. SP Chris Thompson (Portland): Thompson is a player who kind of feels better than he might actually play, but there's a chance he could be the best player from this draft. A hard-throwing lefty with across-the-board potential, Thompson might have to pick up his velocity to be really special. The fact that he's a quality lefty starter should not be ignored, though his three-pitch repertoire could give one some pause. Solid intangibles all around. Best comparison might be Knud Zeitler.

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5. SP Del Willis (Long Beach): Now here's a guy who kind of looks like a #1 pick, though he has some issues, too. Willis has a huge arm and might have a killer fastball/splitter combination, and he doesn't seem to have any sort of red flags anywhere, including durability. However, some caution: his third pitch might need some development, he has poor stamina, and his big motion prevents him from holding baserunners. Willis might be best in the bullpen as a stopper, despite his average control; maybe he's the next Danny Leach or Tiernan O'Macken.

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6. SP Deron Alexander (Des Moines): Yet another sign that Des Moines is a different place these days, Alexander is one of two very raw, long-term prospects Des Moines picked in the top ten this year. Alexander is an interesting prospect; his stuff has above-average potential, he has good movement on his pitches and might turn into a workhorse of sorts. Unless he gets a velocity bump he probably tops out as a #2 starter and he'd be better as a good innings eater at #3.

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7. SP Kris LeBlanc (Seattle): LeBlanc is a very raw lefty starter with a live arm for a teenager and potentially four usable pitches. Not in any way particularly a standout prospect, LeBlanc will have to put his high work ethic to the test if he's going to make it in the major leagues. He might top out as a good lefty reliever if he fails to get his changeup, though you'd like to see him throw harder if he's going to make it in that role.

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8. C Dave Butler (Des Moines): Given the dearth of talent at the catcher position, this pick appears to make a ton of sense. Butler appears far and away the safest catcher prospect in the draft this year, a switch-hitter with excellent contact potential for the position, a decent arm, and good instincts behind the plate. Nobody's going to confuse Butler for Cisco Arreola, the Des Moines Hall of Fame catcher, but he's a starter for sure.

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9. P Fernando Rodriguez (Seattle): Someone was going to take a chance on Rodriguez, a supremely talented lefty pitcher whose torn rotator cuff last year likely cost him a career as a starting pitcher, or so the doctors and scouts say. There are legitimate concerns about his long-term durability, but he might have a career as a high quality fifth starter or swingman if he doesn't blow his arm out again. It's hard to find quality lefty pitchers.

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10. SP Roy Minty (Phoenix): We'd feel a lot better about Minty if we didn't have concerns about his back, but he's a well-regarded, highly developed prospect who probably looks a little better than meets the eye. Excellent stamina and hard work in college has prepared him well for a career in baseball, and Minty looks like the sort of guy who could arrive as early as this year to eat innings in a 3rd/4th starter role. Good intangibles.

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11. SP Jed Flores (San Antonio): San Antonio's meteoric rise is encompassed by them nearly having a top ten pick a year after being the #1 seed in the Johnson League. Flores has a big, live arm, good stamina, reasonably good intangibles and should be an all-around solid starter. Comparable to Rockville's Yun Zhang minus the fourth pitch. Exhibit A as to why we're moving to "real" ratings again.

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12. SP Ron Smith (Valencia): Get out of my dreams and into my ace starter position, Ron Smith. (Somewhere Billy Ocean is cringing.) With Valencia's #1 pitcher Jafar Hamid looking on pace for about 2 WAR this year, Smith might have a real shot to make the rotation by June or July. A basically fully-formed, durable pitcher, Smith isn't the perfect pitcher for Valencia's park either but he might be the best they could do if they have any dreams of sticking around in the wild card race.

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13. IF Jeff Patenaude (Omaha): Given the state of the Omaha franchise and the fact that Patenaude is just 19 years old, I would suspect he'll get to keep his shortstop position, but these sorts of things are fickle. Even if they move him to second or third base, he's still likely to keep most of his value. Patenaude has excellent pop for a middle infielder and good mechanics in the field and on the basepaths.

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14. SP Ira Dawson (Madison): Dawson continues the run on developed college pitchers, though his ceiling is markedly less than some of the players taken ahead of him. A three-pitch starter who might end up better off in the bullpen, Dawson has above-average stuff and stamina and should be a quality #3/4 starter in the big leagues. Plans on serving as his own accountant.

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15. SP Chad Keever (San Fernando): The Bears love pitchers like this; right now they're running Bron Cortez out there every fifth day. Keever has a chance to be better than Cortez, maybe, as the college pitcher has a well-developed five pitch repertoire. It would be nice if he could find the plate more often, but he's got a huge gun for an arm and could be an underrated pick if his walk rate doesn't fly off the handle.

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16. SP Kenny Kelly (Vancouver): Kelly is a well-developed, classical four-pitch starter who runs everything off his solid fastball, which tops out in the mid 90s. The fact that he's a durable starter with solid stamina means he might be the best starter of the college pitcher group, and he did have a very impressive if not award-winning college career. Biggest problem is ceiling, but his floor should be a #4 type starter.

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17. 1B Anthony Allen (Montreal): Allen is a righty-hitting first baseman with no serious holes in his game other than defensively, where he's nonexistent. Allen might not hit for a high average, but plus power and gap power along with a solid batting eye could make him a consistent, if not amazing starter at first base. He's also got a fantastic attitude and great intangibles, some of which emerges with his smarts on the basepaths. If he doesn't make it he might make a heckuva hitting coach. Right now he's very raw.

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18. Andy Sisco, Jr. (Las Vegas): Sisco has a big, live arm, especially for an 18 year old. There are some serious red flags about Sisco though. He hasn't suffered a major arm injury, but has a jerky motion which might cause him to be injury prone. He's got poor stamina for a starting pitcher, likely relegating him to a fifth starter role. And, oh yeah, he's also asking for a big signing bonus. I think he's likely to punch his Future Swingmen of America card just as soon as he's signed.

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19. SP Cliff Ray (Calgary): Ray has a live arm for a teenager and the potential to throw three pitches at a major league level, but he's very raw and will be relying on a circle change. If he doesn't get the changeup he'd be a good reliever conversion if he picks up some velocity naturally, so he makes a good straddle. Might top out as a #3 starter.

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20. 1B Justin Propenzicotti (Brooklyn): The righty first baseman was the highest-rated contact hitter left on the board; though he didn't distinguish himself in a three year college career, scouts like his stroke. Almost 22 years old, Propenzicotti might carry a solid batting average with the ability to steal 20 bases from the first base position, but because of his age he'll have to come on in a hurry.

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21. UT/Something Carlos Flores (San Fernando): Flores is a college hitter with excellent fielding mechanics both in the infield and the outfield. He's potentially a well-rounded righty bat, so he could start, but probably wouldn't be a star at the plate. He'd be most valuable if he could play center field or second base, both of which are realistic possibilities. At the very worst he should be a supersub.

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22. SP Jim Watson (Nashville): Watson is a high school pitcher who's well developed for being not quite 19 years old. He's a righty with basically average stuff across the board and a good move to first base. If he gains velocity he could be a little better, but at this point he projects as a fourth or fifth starter in the major leagues. Good intangibles will help.

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23. OF Raul Avila (Twin Cities): Pretty sure this is a record, but this is the first person in the draft who hits lefty. (Des Moines' Dave Butler does switch hit but he might be primarily a righty). Avila does have a little bit of a lefty platoon already, which bodes well for his ability to be the main half of a platoon later, but otherwise screams average; might be average defensively, average offensively. Fast, but a poor basestealer. Already listed as a right fielder so not likely to be competent enough in CF to start there, but I've seen stranger things.

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24. SP Ronnie Sprinkles (Hawaii): Proving beyond a doubt that some of us are old enough to have children, Ronnie Sprinkles is this. Apparently that's what a baseball rat looks like, since Sprinkles' work ethic is apparently legendary. A righty college pitcher, Sprinkles had a distinguished college career and could be a solid #3/4 starter in this league when if he fully develops, but if he doesn't should also be a solid reliever conversion. It is unknown how he gets up to 99 on the gun throwing with flippers. Second cousin of Mike Wazowski.

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25. Eddie Trujillo (Atlantic City): Trujillo is a significantly underdeveloped righty college pitcher who probably tops out at a #3 starter. He has the potential to have plus control and four solid pitches, but might be a reliever conversion if he can't master some of them. He should be a solid innings eater and holds basestealers well for a righty. Solid intangibles.

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26. SP/RP Jose Lopez (Boise): Listed as a starter, but will almost surely be a reliever in the BBA. The biggest question for Lopez will be health, as the 19 year old has had multiple occurrences of back spasms and a few minor injuries to his throwing arm. Lopez has the ability to be a shutdown lefty reliever who isn't just a one out guy and was a highly decorated pitcher in high school, but he'll have to stay on the field and develop.

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27. SP John Mellott (Mexico City): John Mellott is a lefty starter with the potential to be a mid-rotation starter if he develops completely, but he's going to have some issues. While he's not going to be homer-prone, his very pedestrian stuff will likely force him to pitch to contact much of the time, and his mediocre control will probably force him into some bad situations. Lousy intangibles won't help, and he's a long way away.

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28. OF/1B/DH Keith Kerfoot (Mexico City): Kerfoot is a righty powerhitter with a decent batting eye, the sort of player you don't actively try to start but often end up starting anyway. He has some moderate ability in the infield, but probably isn't the sort of player who's going to grow into, say, an offensive second baseman, maybe more like a good fielding first baseman. He's a major leaguer, but he might end up caddying for a better player.

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29. RP/SP? Mal Byrd (Chicago): Byrd appears to me to be a very savvy pick by a smart owner. He's identifiable as a potential shutdown reliever (albeit with some control issues) but the Black Sox might consider converting him into a starting pitcher, as the hard-throwing righty has lots of endurance and is an extreme groundballer. Scouts don't like his physical makeup, but he could end up being a real nice find this late in the first round.

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30. 3B Katsunosuki Honda (Boise): Honda appears to be a bit of a compromise need pick. Not particularly gifted as a powerhitter or with a great batting eye, Honda does have a gun for an arm and should steal a lot of bases. It's a little bit of a confusing pick: the Spuds currently are playing a player with a similar (and ostensibly better) makeup, Joey O'Brien, at third base, and he hasn't worked out at all for two franchises now, though Honda is going to sign cheap. Good durability should help.

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31. SP Jeff Doane (San Antonio): Exhibit B on why we're returning to "real" ratings. Doane is currently undergoing rehab for a torn flexor tendon in his throwing arm, so he's a bit of a gamble even if doctors think he'll make a full recovery. He shouldn't be too dependent on whether his changeup makes it, though it could make or break whether he becomes a quality major leaguer or just some guy San Antonio drafted after Jed Flores. Good intangibles, throws hard for a teenager.

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32. SP John Snyder (Charm City): Snyder is a soft-tossing lefty with three potential out pitches who might never hit much more than 90 on the gun. He does tend to force groundballs, and like many lefties he has a good move to first base, but his lack of velocity might hold him back. Knows how to pitch, and lefty starters with promise are always in season.

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33. 2B Reilly Eddy (New Orleans): A fast slap-hitting middle infielder with a little doubles power and a backward name, players like Eddy have been taken in the first round before and have often been used as starters, with a couple seasons as .300 hitters to fool the eyes. Went to multiple All-Star games as a youngster and had quite the amateur career, so we might be underselling him. Acceptable defensively, lousy intangibles.

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34. OF/DH Sancho Rutan (New Orleans): Second of back to back picks that couldn't be more different. Rutan, pronounced how Scooby Doo would say "Wu-Tang," is a right-handed moneyball type hitter with decent contact skills but with lots of power and a strong batting eye. Voted by his teammates "Most Likely To Be Lionel Crepin," which would be a nice win for the Crawdads. He's not good defensively, so if he doesn't improve they'll give up a position or he'll be a DH.

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35. 1B Manuel Moreno (Rockville): Moreno is an interesting player, especially for a first baseman. One of the more well-rounded hitters in the draft, Moreno has no apparent weaknesses but isn't overwhelmingly strong anywhere, except maybe on the basepaths. He also has some skills at catcher; if he's even passable his offensive skills would be very strong there. Needs a little bit of an attitude adjustment as he was quite the impressive and self-important star in college, but we're guessing he'll get one.

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36. RP Elvin Hilliard (Louisville): The rich get richer. Good lefty pitchers are very hard to find, and Hilliard looks exactly like that. Hilliard has the ability to be a legitimate lockdown lefty that isn't just a one-out guy. He's a durable pitcher who already has reasonably developed stuff and throws very hard for a teenager. He has good intangibles and should make a phenomenal reliever conversion if they go that route. Not much not to like here, though unless he gains more velocity he probably won't be incredible, just very good.

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37. RP Eric Buckson (Edmonton): Buckson looks like a reliever, not a starter, though it will be a little bit tempting to try him as a fifth starter. Buckson throws hard for a teenager and has well-developed stuff for 19 years old. A well-rounded player, Buckson throws ground balls, has solid potential across the board and should be a very solid righty reliever or a swingman.

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38. SP Trey Raynor (Rockville): Raynor is a classical four-pitch starter (FB, slider, change, splitter) who may be able to throw three of them for strikes. Doesn't throw overwhelmingly hard for a teenager, but a little velocity gain for him might go a long way since he has plus control, at least for this draft. It's hard to find lefty starters, but he looks like another potentially decent rotation type for the Pikemen. Probably not a good conversion candidate so he'll have to make it as a starter.

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39. SP Nolan Lee (Sacramento): Lee is a righty who doesn't throw hard and isn't precise, but has good movement. He should give up very few homers since he produces lots of groundballs, which isn't surprising as his two potential out pitches as a starting pitcher are a sinker and a splitter. Lee probably doesn't throw hard enough to be a good conversion candidate, so he might end up being a kind of swingman. Very good intangibles might help, and a little improvement from the teenager might go a long way.

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40. SP Francis Xavier Pfeffer (Yellow Springs): Big Jeff apparently is the namesake of a deadball era pitcher who his great-great-grandparents idolized. Like his namesake, he's not really that tall or big, 6'1" and about 200 pounds. Pfeffer is a five-pitch starter who works everything off a solid sinker, and while scouts don't like his physical makeup he hasn't had any major injuries to speak of. Should keep the ball in the ballpark mostly, though a lot of his stuff is hittable. Just 18 years old and would probably look a lot more impressive with a little more velocity on his fastball.

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41. C Franklin Hennessey (Madison): A classical switch-hitting catcher who's likely to hit a few knocks a year and strike out way too much, Hennessey has a chance to be a ten year starter at the position, partially due to its weakness and partially due to what looks like a solid defensive makeup. Likely to have some holes against lefties. No intangible problems, and he should be useful even if he doesn't get 100% of his offensive numbers.

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42. Chris Hilliard (Atlantic City): Chris Hilliard, unlike Elvin, might be a little bit of a reach pick at the spot. A hard thrower who might be better as a reliever, Hilliard has plus stuff but poor reviews from scouts. He's not 19 yet and he already throws extremely hard, so if he can pick up a few more MPH on his fastball he might be better than we think. Good intangibles should help.

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43. RP Louis Martinez (Boise): Someone was going to take a chance on his talent, and the Spuds apparently couldn't let him slip any more. The top rated "pure" reliever on the board won't throw a single pitch in 2044, as he's recovering from elbow surgery. We wouldn't be surprised to see him lose that stamina rating, but if he's still throwing near 100 MPH he might have a solid major league career.

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44. SP Joaquin Martinez (San Antonio): It would normally be surprising that Joaquin Martinez, a lefty with a good skill set, fell this far in the draft.
And then there's his medical history: Martinez has had multiple surgeries on his throwing shoulder. There's a lot to like about Joaquin Martinez, if they can keep him pitching; he's a really driven kid, is well-developed for 22 years old and should come on fast, and could help the Outlaws soon.

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45. OF Tommy Bailey (New Orleans): In what is definitely an unofficial record, Tommy Bailey is the latest first true autopick we've ever had in a draft. Blame the plague, I think. Bailey can't hit lefties, but he's absolutely solid average in every other way and is basically a fully formed product. If you're starting Bailey your outfield isn't awesome, but I'd be very unsurprised to see him be a 1.5 WAR half of a platoon.

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46. 2B Antonio Castro (Rockville): Castro was one of the better position players left on the board at the time he was selected, which says more about the draft than it does Castro. That said, the lefty-hitting second baseman has solid hitting talents across the board, especially for a middle infielder, and if he can make his contact more consistent he could be a kind of sneaky low-end starter at the position. Fast but dumb on the basepaths.

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47. SP Vincent Louis (Edmonton): The scouts say Louis is one of the best bargains of the entire draft, though I haven't the faintest idea why. He does have a lot of positives: he has good velocity for a teenager, he's physically solid and has great stamina, and he has a winning personality. Sometimes the scouts are right, but I have no idea what they see in him I don't. Also concerned that he has a long way to go on his changeup, which will determine whether he ever starts a game in the majors.

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48. SP/RP Aaron Anderson (Sacramento): The name I give myself when I pretend to be Neo, Mr. Anderson has some significant skills despite his lack of velocity. If he grows into his body (he's 5'10", 155 right now soaking wet) he could be better than this, but a weak third pitch might relegate him to the bullpen. He's not a bad conversion candidate just because he's so skilled, but you usually like higher velocity. He's a good project to have.

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49. OF Bayissa Mbaya (Sacramento): The Mad Popes had three picks late in the first round, which is what happens when you win 105 games and tell your whole pitching staff to scram. Right now they're 10-20 so they might be picking higher next year. Mbaya has a solid platoon lefty bat in the outfield who can both hit and run. Mbaya isn't going to be much of a defensive player and probably won't be quite good enough to be a platoon DH. You'd like to see him more developed at almost 22 years old, too. I could imagine starting worse than Mbaya in a pinch.

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[Ted]

I love the George Washington comments. First was subtle. Second was a deadpan knockout punch. Love it.

[GoldenOne]

I love the George Washington comments. First was subtle. Second was a deadpan knockout punch. Love it.

And the third is pretty good too. Nice!

[HoosierVic]

Cherrywood bats. Heh.

[bigmike13]

Gotta say i am pleased with my first round picks. If Doan and Martinez pan out it could a great draft.

[usnspecialist]

i was torn between keever and Kelly, but decided to take a gamble on the walk rate and the big right handed arm of keever.

[JimBob2232]

Yeah - my autodraft kicked in. Didnt have a list...ugh. 2nd round got me too. Bad on me.

[aaronweiner]

Yeah - my autodraft kicked in. Didnt have a list...ugh. 2nd round got me too. Bad on me.

He was one of the players near the top of my list.

[Dington]

2. CF Mike Brodt (Charlotte):Best comparison is Gipper Kengos, one of the league's most notable busts in 2043 but who had back-to-back 3 WAR seasons

Gipper seems to be having a bounce back year after a solid April.

[Ted]

I love the George Washington comments. First was subtle. Second was a deadpan knockout punch. Love it.

And the third is pretty good too. Nice!

I actually missed the second one with the rebellious bit.

[jleddy]

Just wonderful, one of my favorite annual features...enjoy the no-bullshit, well-thought-out analysis, Aaron!

[lordtoffee]

Well done with the analysis, Aaron.

[RonCo]

Aaron is amazing.