2043 Farm System Rankings

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2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:29 pm

So, it's that time of year again, most draft picks have signed so I’ve done my usual thing and tabulated systems around the BBA. For those unfamiliar: I use a simplified “Fangraphs” method—which is basically just a linear weighting of players in the minors by overall potential. I like it a ton more than the OOTP way, which scores players in they are in the top 100 or not. I like it because you can still cut the data by "top prospects" as well as get a better feel for overall depth in an organization.

I should note that this will miss some guys still in DFA, and will obviously miss players who have not signed. To be clear, though, this one is using all players in the organization (which is highfalutin way of saying it includes the International Complex). It also will use overall ratings based on position regardless of whether that’s “right” or not. An 80 reliever is an 80 reliever (I think OOTP has dialed that down a little, but there you have it). Also, remember, this is only players in the minor leagues. If you have a fresh-faced rookie call up on your active roster, he’s no longer considered part of your minor leagues for this study.

I should note, too, that the players here are now limited to 25 years or younger.

First, though, let’s look at how the environment is changing.

Year807570656055504540Tot
20412011192546571463377101371
204210882240531504097891489
204357102728771504487611513

In 2041, there were 121 players in BBA systems rated 60 Potential or higher. 2042 saw 88. 2043 sees 77. So the top of our systems are draining out--which makes some sense. As I wrote last year, it seems the glut of the big draft classes of those late 30s is nearly purged. On the whole, the total numbers of 40+ players continue to grow.


A Look at the Teams

Here are the BBA numbers as of early June 2043. (Remember that wTot = weighted score of all players, wTop = weighted scores of only players of POT >=60). I focus on wTot because I'm more interested in overall system value, but that's just me.

2043-Farm-Systems-All.PNG

On the upside:
  • New Orleans sits at the top, which isn't surprising. The 'Dads have been a top minor league system for some time.
  • Perhaps of more surprise is the rising of Charm City, Chicago, and Montreal to grab the 2-4 slots. All three have managed to develop robust systems with prospects across the rating spectrum.
  • The big movers here are Las Vegas and Phoenix, but in different ways. Phoenix's numbers are raised by a chunk of International Complex guys. The Hustlers make hay with a bigger pile of guys in the 50-65 range.
  • Des Moines also saw a bump of more than 10 ranking levels.
Going Down:
  • Portland and Long Beach both fall off a cliff, the Lumberjacks dropping 24 slots, the Surfers "only" 15. Maybe it's the IC? Maybe it's the development engine? Dunno.
  • Twin Cities, San Antonio, and Seattle aren't far behind, but the River Monsters and Outlaws graduated players into the bigs that have had them competing, whereas Seattle is still struggling at the parent club level.
  • Calgary, a traditional farm system powerhouse, falls out of the top 5.
  • Rockville slips from #3 to almost out of the top 10.
  • While not a cliff event, my own Yellow Springs continues a slow fall out of the top 10, fading this time from #7 to #12.

Now let's do the traditional plot of the two values wTot and wTop (which gives a feel for where teams sit as far as top prospect value vs. system depth value.
2043-Farm-Systems-Plot.PNG
I like this view a lot because you can immediately pick out the top five (NO, CCJ, CHi, MNT, and PHX) and see how their systems vary. In addition, that line of teams of clubs with no top prospects get strung along the bottom--and you can see which systems have perhaps a little better chances of yielding something (Long Beach and Mexico City being at the "top" and Valencia at the "bottom." I like it because you can also compare teams in interesting ways. For example, the aforementioned Valencia scores a tad more in depth than Hawaii, but Hawaii scores at the top end because Bronx Cortez is stronger than anyone else in the Star's organization.

Anyway, enough of my blabbering. You can read a chart just as well without me, right?
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by Dington » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:46 pm

Nice work, as always. Would love to see this for UMEBA if you have a chance.
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by shoeless.db » Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:12 pm

Popes are tied for first in 40POT guys at 35... things are looking up.
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:14 pm

Dington wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:46 pm
Nice work, as always. Would love to see this for UMEBA if you have a chance.
Planning on it now. I just need to get my templates set up. :)
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by HoosierVic » Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:33 pm

Interesting, as always. Not that it means anything, but it somehow feels more correct to have fewer prospects in the very top-rated ranks and a larger clustering around the 40-45-50 range. I’ve certainly noticed that in my own system and in the draft pools.

The upshot of this trend, I would think, will be that competitive teams will have lineups and rotations composed more of “green-to-yellow” rated guys than filled top-to-bottom with “electric blue” superstar rated guys.

That seems a little more true to life. If that’s a result of the tweaks Matt and the board made in the offseason, then well done, men.

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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by Fat Nige » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:31 pm

Can’t remember last year’s one but I’m sure I’ve managed to get Wichita up a bit. A few teams have slipped below us
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:52 pm

WIC went from 27 > 16
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by HoosierVic » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:59 pm

RonCo wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:52 pm
WIC went from 27 > 16
Nice - well done, Nigel!

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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:09 pm

Er ... 26 > 17 :)
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by jleddy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:52 pm

Hey, Pacific fans, I know your division stinks now, but wait until all those prospects get called up! :popcorn:
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by aaronweiner » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:16 pm

Mine's a little light right now anyway. I've just promoted two of my last big prospects, and Jason Hone (75 reliever) is starting in AAA to hopefully get that extra work for a changeup. But the fact that I'm still in the top 10 means I'm doing fine.

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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by GoldenOne » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:24 pm

I always hope Charlotte doesnt get mentioned in these types of posts. Usually when we get mentioned, its not very often a good thing. Better to not be mentioned....
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by bschr682 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:28 pm

Upward movement. Good good. All according to plan... uh all according to my intentions yea that’s it.
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by jiminyhopkins » Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:58 pm

Nothing like a few free International guys to help the ol' rankings.
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by jleddy » Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:14 pm

GoldenOne wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:24 pm
I always hope Charlotte doesnt get mentioned in these types of posts. Usually when we get mentioned, its not very often a good thing. Better to not be mentioned....
Just imagine how good your farm would be if you picked near the top for a few seasons in a row...
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by HoosierVic » Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:29 am

jleddy wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:52 pm
Hey, Pacific fans, I know your division stinks now, but wait until all those prospects get called up! :popcorn:
Wait ... there are Pacific fans?

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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by GoldenOne » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:09 am

jleddy wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:14 pm
GoldenOne wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:24 pm
I always hope Charlotte doesnt get mentioned in these types of posts. Usually when we get mentioned, its not very often a good thing. Better to not be mentioned....
Just imagine how good your farm would be if you picked near the top for a few seasons in a row...
Eh. Prospects are just prospects until they produce anyway. Amos is still a few seasons away and Lee got sent back down with the quickness. Not saying they won’t still be good, but you gotta have guys playing in the field too. And Richardson had his chances and was obviously a bust in Charlotte at least. And the way things are going, there will still be a few more seasons of picking at/near the top.
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by CTBrewCrew » Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:52 pm

Winning through mediocrity - DATS the Madison Way!
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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by HoosierVic » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:02 pm

CTBrewCrew wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:52 pm
Winning through mediocrity - DATS the Madison Way!
Hey, wait a minute. That’s the Chicago way - we’ve got a whole Blueprint(TM) about it. Trademark infringement!

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Re: 2043 Farm System Rankings

Post by Fat Nige » Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:01 pm

The Wichita way is losing through mediocrity
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