So, yeah, the season is a bit over a third of the way done, and it’s pretty clear that the Frick League’s second base Zimmer Award race is down to four players. Since one of them is Yellow Springs’ Dong-po Thum, and since Thum is a late-career conversion (age 25), I have both a fannish interest as well as an intellectual one.
Since I just did a semi-quick update on the fielding script I run, I thought I’d take the morning to do a deep-dive on the whole situation. That’s how these things go, right? I mean, what else am I going to do on Saturday morning but look at Frick League Second basemen.
The Preliminaries
I say that the race is down to four guys simply by looking at Zone Rating, which stands as follows:
Roberto Beltran (VAN) - 7.3 (1.106 EFF)
Nikitta Schipper (POR) - 6.1 (1.084 EFF)
Dong-po Thum (YS9) – 5.1 (1.071 EFF)
Rocky Wattson (CHI) – 5.0 (1.016 EFF)
We could add Sacramento’s Edgardo Encarnacion in there at 4.2 (his defensive efficiency is better than Wattson’s) but we have to draw the line somewhere, and the ZR gap is big enough now that it’s fair to say Encarnacion wouldn’t get much play if the voting were to be held now. To be honest, at this stage I’d say Wattson will fade soon, but the numbers are there, so let’s look at them.
These numbers can, of course, change, but at first blush this looks like Beltran’s race to lose. His ZR shows great range and his EFF says his conversion of balls into outs is premium. If voting were to be held today, I would expect Beltran to take the award, but that the voting might wind up fairly close.
Playing Time
To put the various stats into context, here are the list of players who have been assigned time at 2B this year for all four teams involved (Vancouver, Portland, Chicago, and Yellow Springs):
| Team | Player | Games | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | Roberto Beltran | 60 | 505.1 |
| VAN | Robbie Krok | 23 | 120.1 |
| VAN | John Hickman | 4 | 36 |
| VAN | Joey O'Brien | 2 | 5 |
| VAN | Carlos Martinez | 1 | 9 |
| POR | Nikita Schipper | 40 | 334.1 |
| POR | Tomas Valdez | 27 | 212.2 |
| POR | Jose Rios | 18 | 145.2 |
| CHI | Rocky Wattson | 73 | 660.2 |
| CHI | Luis Gonzalez | 5 | 31 |
| CHI | Jose Silva | 1 | 9 |
| YS9 | Dong-po Thum | 70 | 627.1 |
| YS9 | Lucas McNeill | 5 | 15 |
| YS9 | Blaine Tyler | 4 | 36 |
| YS9 | Jose Sanchez | 1 | 9 |
Which is an interesting thing to think about with regard to voting. Sample size, right? Is the Zimmer about absolute excellence (the very best), or about overall added value (raw runs preserved). Right this minute, for example, if one were to list this as WAR/IP, Schipper would be the superior player—but clearly his bat is so poor that Portland can’t afford to play him enough to drive his overall defensive value higher than Beltran’s. A similar conversation can be held between Thum and Schipper, but in reverse. If the season continues along as it has, I suspect Thum will surpass Schipper in ZR soon. Still, by raw rate stats, Schipper will probably be better. So, how many games/innings does Schipper have to play to win the award?
I dunno.
I mean, perhaps if Schipper had good enough hitters playing around him that the Lumberjacks could live with his bat, that would make a difference. Or perhaps if the other 2B who played for Portland were at least good enough with the glove, the team’s pitchers could survive taking him out at key moments. As much as we want these things to be individual awards, the fact is that everything as a team context, right? And at present, to vote for Schipper over Beltran you would have to vote for a guy who has played only 49% of his team’s innings at the position.
There’s more, of course.
Defensive Chances
Using innings played is a nice little breakdown, but it also doesn’t tell the real tale. A player’s chances are highly dependent (again) on the team around them. This is why the stat “range factor” is really dangerous. You might be guessing where this is going, but first let’s start with the raw data in OOTP fielding reports regarding Total Chances (PO+Assists+Errors).
| Team | Player | TC |
|---|---|---|
| VAN | Roberto Beltran | 328 |
| POR | Nikita Schipper | 227 |
| CHI | Rocky Wattson | 382 |
| YS9 | Dong-po Thum | 316 |
Another interesting chart that shows some similar things. Wattson leads this group in opportunities, Schipper is far behind. Despite playing 627 innings to Beltran’s 505, Thum has actually had twelve fewer opportunities than Beltran. That’s partially a factor of the measures (realize it does not factor in all BIZ, and that steals and DP warp this one a bit if you’re trying to decide “best” as the guy who is best at fielding ground balls and turning them to outs.
So, let’s look at Beltran and Thum closer. What’s going on?
Looking at double plays, we see Thum has 52, Beltran 43—an “advantage” to Thum that actually says that the TC variance between them is bigger than it looks. Regarding stolen bases against:
| TEAM | SBA | CS |
|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 41 |
| YS9 | 71 | 25 |
Of a more interesting thought is this:
- YS9 Pitching: 672 strikeouts
- VAN Pitching: 450 strikeouts
So that boils down to this: do you penalize Thum (who plays more innings than Beltran, but whose ZR is less than Beltran’s) due to his pitching staff not getting him as many opportunities?
Such are the questions the world turns on.
Finally, Let’s Go to the Script
Yes, indeed, I love this little script of mine even if I can’t say exactly what its data means at times [grin]. I pulled team data for ground balls in zone for the season so far for each of the four teams (Vancouver, Portland, Chicago, and YS). As noted, I can’t actually pull individuals at the moment, so ultimately the precision of this data is hazy if one were to use it as your only source for the Zimmer—but it’s pretty solid for looking at team results, and hence might be able to give us some additional ways to look at these votes.
Regardless, I pulled data for all zones that a second baseman might be expected to have some responsibility for (34, 4, 4M, shallow, medium, and deep). Zones 4 and 4M are clearly all the second baseman’s responsibility, but the 34 gap has some overlap with the team’s first basemen. I have not attempted to compare 1B here, so take that for what it’s worth, but it could be valuable to note that Portaland’s 1B defense has been poor this year, Vancouver’s has been somewhere around league average, and both Chicago and Yellow Springs has been good but not great.
I should also take a moment to remind folks that the script captures raw data for every ball hit in zones, and then calculates a Plays Above Average value that compares a player’s actual performance on balls in each zone to the league average conversion rate for that zone. In the chart below, for example, Vancouver has had 110 balls hit into its zone 4 mid-range zone, and has converted 107 of them into outs. That is 1.2 outs (plays) better than league average for that zone.
I’ll present the detailed data first, then a composite:
This is a busy chart, meaning you have to look at it carefully to start to pick out information. I suggest starting in the “Plays” area and working your way up.
For example, though, let’s look at Portland’s “Plays” box and note that, on the whole, the team has been around average everywhere but two zones: Shallow 34 (32 BIP), where they register 5.8 plays worse than average, and Deep 4M (31 BIP) where they are 6.9 plays above average. I’d suggest the later is why Schipper is so sparkling right now. Given that the sample sizes of those two zones are fairly low, I’d project they may both revert to mean a little. In the final analysis, the team is -4 PAA on balls in the gap between first and second, 1.3 PAA on balls right at the second baseman, and 8.4 PAA on grounders up the middle shaded to second base. Solid enough performance.
Since Beltran is playing the bulk if the innings in Vancouver, it’s interesting to note the performance pattern for them. The overall answer is positive, but there are some patchy zones (though, again, sample size).
In Chicago, since Rocky Wattson is getting 94% of the playing time, the “Plays” box shows a fairly real truth about him . Bottom line: he’s a solid defender with a little range. Given that his 1B counterparts are good (not great), one can suggest that that 5.0 PAA in “34 Deep” is an amalgam of Wattson and his teammates. That -.4 PAA in “4M Deep” is built on 20 BIP and is fine. Wattson is very good second baseman.
Yellow Spring’s grid is interesting, too. Thum is getting 92% of the innings played, so the data is almost as good of a representation of him as Chicago’s is of Wattson. YS9 1B are pretty solid, too, so the team’s performance in the “34” zones should be credited to both. Looking at the 4 and 4M zones, however, shows Thum as about average on balls in his “home zone” (4-mid), but has been outstanding in every zone in which range and error come to bear. It’s of some note that, while taking into account sample size, both POR and YS9 are very strong performers in the “4M Deep” zone—a location that should strain an infielder’s arm—and that both Schipper and Thum have outstanding infield arm ratings.
Putting this all together, we get the following:
- 2043-2B-zones-team.PNG (4.92 KiB) Viewed 237 times
All total, despite having Schipper on their roster, Portland’s second basemen are performing at a rate only 5.6 Plays above Average. While turning the most number of raw ground balls into outs (282), Vancouver’s second basemen are “only” 8.3 Plays Above Average. This is because Mountie second basemen have also had a total of 375 balls hit into their zones, most of the study. Wattson and his Chicago brethren, for example, have created three less outs than Vancouver, but have seen 31 less opportunities (realize again, these include the 34 zones in which the first baseman has some influence). Yellow Springs second basemen have had the fewest opportunities (which corresponds to the conversation about pitcher strike outs), and hence the fewest number of converted outs. But putting everything into the normalized metric of PAA, the YS9 second basemen have been 18 plays above average—best of the set by 5 outs.
Final Thoughts
So, what does this mean? Right now nothing, I suppose. It was fun to dig into the data, and when I get a minute I’ll post all your different team’s information so you can play with it if you want. The problem with this today is that we still have three and a half months of baseball to play. There is every chance that a true “leader” will emerge from the pack to take the Zimmer Award without a whole lot of debate.
Still, I liked looking at this because the four guys here seem to represent the very real conundrum that voters face when trying to decide who the “best” player is at a defensive position.
Do you reward Schipper? While I do think his numbers are going to fade a little due to that huge “4 Deep” thing, what if they don’t? Do you give a guy with sparkling numbers the nod if he plays only 80 games? If not, then the answer is probably Beltran or Thum—which Beltran probably wins due to that OOTP ZR calculation. If, however, you weigh performance vs. true opportunity you can argue Wattson over Beltran and Thum over Wattson.
It’s a dilemma, I tell you.
But, of course, it’s these dilemmas that make the game fun