2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries: Elbows)

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2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries: Elbows)

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:50 pm

Let’s take a look at some specific injuries, shall we? By that, I mean elbow injuries, and elbow injuries in 2038 to be even more specific. I’m picking this data set for a few simple reasons. First, I’m interested in UCL surgeries, in particular. This is probably due to the Fangraphs/Hardball Times article I recently read regarding Tommy John Surgery. Second, I’m picking 2038 because it’s the earliest set of pitchers who were injured after we changed the injury occurrence setting. In addition, I’m interested in the earliest because I want to be able to follow guys through their recovery process.

So, yeah. Bottom line: Elbow injuries, 2038.

I should also say that I’m going to split this one up into multiple posts under this thread, mostly because then I can release things a bit more quickly, and also because I think it’ll be a bit more readable. This top post, for example, is going to be a look at the ubiquitous “inflammation,” for example.

With that, let’s get going, shall we?

In 2038, thirty-one pitchers suffered lost-time elbow injuries while throwing in BBA games. Here is the breakdown of the injury type:

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1

ELBOW INFLAMMATION:

I mean. What is elbow inflammation, right? It’s a good question, really. In 2038, for example, the players who had inflammation were out for between 1 week and 3 months with the problem. Hellfire, man, that’s a pretty big range. What does it mean, then? Who were these ten pitchers? When were they hurt? What happened to them?

Let’s start with the easy one first: who were they and when did they get hurt?

Here are the ten, sorted by month:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
2038528RPBRKAlfonso NavarroInflammation1week
2038817RPYS9Rodrigo LugoInflammation2weeks
2038725RPBNASPaul JonesInflammation2-3weeks
2038618RPNOSébastien MercierInflammation4weeks
2038520SPMADJosé CavazosInflammation4weeks
203842RPVANBelmiro MaanicoInflammation4weeks
2038510SPOMACarson StollerInflammation2-3months
203891SPMADJosé CavazosInflammation3months
203881RPPHXAlejandro LópezInflammation3months
2038312SPDMSergio FrancoInflammation3months

Of the ten we see four are starting pitchers. Not sure that this means anything. I do note that three of the four starters who suffered inflammation were out for the longest time.

Only one—Des Moines Sergio Franco—incurred the issue in spring training.

Of particular note might be José Cavazos, who shows up on the list twice, once in May and again in September.

Let’s take a look at these guys and see what happened, shall we?
Off Topic
LOW-GRADE INFLAMMATION (3 weeks or less)

Alfonso Navarro: Navarro had only a two season career in the BBA. He’s in the UMEBA now. His 2038 elbow injury did not hurt his ratings, and in fact he picked up a point of control that following off-season.

Rodrigo Lugo: Came over to YS9 in a low-grade trade, and as a walking injury factory. His inflammation did not seem to affect his ratings, but he has had subsequent bouts with elbow issues. That said, he’s also had bouts with about every other kind of issue there is.

Pual Jones: Currently with Charlotte, Jones has been an effective pitcher for several years. In 2038 he was 27 years old, and in his second year. He lost both stuff and movement in the update after the injury, but it’s hard to know causation. The injury has not recurred.
As best as I can tell with these three cases, elbow inflammation of low duration is not a great concern. Lugo’s case is the only one that suggests longer term issues could apply, but … well .. you get the idea.
Off Topic
MODERATE-GRADE INFLAMMATION (4 weeks or less)

Sébastien Mercier: Mercier was 26 at the time of this injury. It was the most severe of three he suffered in 2038, and his track record is full of small bumps and bruises. No further elbow issues seem to be a part of that record, though. His ratings did take a hit in the following off-season, though, again, Mercier did have three issues going on. He’s pitching effectively in Beruit today.

José Cavazos : Here’s a name a lot of folks are familiar with. In 2038, he was 38 years old, and at the end of a long career. As noted above, he was on the inflammation list twice, losing 4-weeks this time, then 3 months later. This effectively ended his career. I note that his injury history included a torn flexor tendon in hie elbow three years earlier, and a round of back issues a couple years prior to that. Otherwise he was fairly healthy.

Belmiro Maanico: Maanico is know to say that elbow inflammation ruined his career, but a check into Snopes suggests the bigger problem was an inflated ERA. That said, Maanico did have the injury, and it may have ticked a bit of his control away. Or not. Bottom line, he was 25 and pitching for Vancouver when the injury happened, and a year later he was 26 and selling laundry machines.
A final analysis using this huge three-player data set is that mid-grade inflammation might have the ability to ding ratings a little. Or not. Really, I’s just too small of a set to make any definitive statements from.

Off Topic
SEVERE INFLAMMATION (2 months or more)

Carson Stoller : We know the Stoller story by now. Hot kid destroyed by injuries. He did have his share, but here’s the thing—the elbow problem is a steady thread in his life, starting at age 14 ( yes, that 14 is right) when he had radial nerve decompression surgery. He had a sore elbow two years later, then his second radial nerve surgery at age 17. He had chips removed from his elbow a couple years later, then a trail of years in which he complained of pain. His 2038 inflammation cost him three months. Other injuries also began to group around him, but in 2041 another bout of severe inflammation shut him down for six weeks. Bottom line: Carson Stoller is still pitching down in the Omaha farm system at age 29, but he has the elbow of a 50 year old.

You could argue that his pitch counts were too high, and that was probably true, but the bottom line here is that Stoller’s injuries were a major part of his timeline even when he was drafted.

José Cavazos : We talked about Cavazos earlier…

Alejandro López: Lopez was 21 years old when he threw 14 innings for Phoenix in 2038. Those were his last 14 big league innings. His inflammation was diagnosed in August, and shut him down for the year. He lost a tick of stuff that following off-season, but still looked serviceable until an early April injury in AAA sent him to the table for radial nerve decompression surgery. He never recovered.

Sergio Franco: Franco had a workmanlike, but respectable 8 seasons in the BBA before moving on to the middle east, where he’s pitching in Cairo’s minor leagues. His inflammation hit in spring training, and all I can say for sure is that his ratings took a nose-dive in the next off-season update. He’d endured a torn labrum the year before (age 27), but had been otherwise fairly healthy. Bottom line: if you attribute all ratings issues to these injuries, it’s fair to say that the Labrum injury ripped out most of his effectiveness, and the inflammation did the rest.
So, what have we learned so far?

Should we be afraid when one of our guys has to sit with inflammation? Does that portend bad things in the future? Well, I don’t know. Ten data points, you know? But I’m inclined to squint and say I’m not at all concerned with short-term inflammation at all, and maybe not even mid-grade inflammation, but if a guy loses three or more months with it, there’s a yellow flag waving, especially if (a) the guy has a history, or (b) he’s getting older.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:02 pm

Following on, let’s take a look at the next category of elbow injuries. Taking a look at the original chart, that will be strains.

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1

STRAINS:

Together, 2038 saw six elbow strains 3 cases of tendonitis. For convenience sake I’ll split them, but I would guess we could put them together, that both are technically strains but the medical difference is that a “strain” is a muscle injury and tendonitis is, naturally, a tendon strain.

With that, you may now officially address me as Dr. Collins, thank you very much.

Anyway, just so we have something to start with, here are the occurrences of muscle strains, again sorted by duration times—briefer injuries first:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
203877SPCCJDavid MárquezStrain3weeks
2038629SPNSHHeinrich PeithnerStrain2-3weeks
2038311RPMNTGeorge O'ConnorStrain4-5weeks
2038426SPVALGerald KeynesStrain6weeks
2038511SPWICHiroyuki RinStrain2-3months
2038417RPCCJZhuo-cheng KinStrain2-3months

I have no idea if this makes a difference, but I find it interesting to note all of these injuries happened between Spring Training (March) and July, and even the one in July was the 7th, early in the month. I must make a note to look into that on the bigger data set.

Four of these guys are starters, two bullpen pitchers.

I note CCJ had a pair of these, no more than one per team otherwise.

Let’s take a look at these guys and see what happened, shall we?
Off Topic
LOW-GRADE ISTRAIN (2-3 weeks)

David Márquez: This guy has been a solid pitcher for the Jimmies for some time. He was 22 when he suffered this strain, and he did lose a point of stuff the next check. That said, he also suffered a dead arm and an abdominal strain in earlier months of 2038. He had elbow inflammation a year after the strain, but otherwise has not has a serious trail of elbow injuries—though Marquez is certainly a guy who has a fair number of other low-grade bumps and bruises scattered around his resume. I should note that he did recover that lost point of stuff a couple years later, too.

Heinrich Peithner : Peithner was 28 in 2038, and the strain was his only injury that year. FWIW, he lost a point of movement in the off-season. Random? You call it. It’s probably worth noting that he’s had a series of six or seven strains over they years, but nothing major has happened—at least not to hie elbow. He fractured his shoulder last year before signing the big deal to Kuwait this year. Right this minute, he’s sitting out his worst elbow strain of his career and will be lost 6-7 weeks. No idea if this is a harbringer.

Unsurprising, these two seemed to come through low-grade elbow strains without too much worry.

Off Topic
MODERATE-GRADE STRAIN (4-6 weeks)

George O'Connor: In 2038, O’Connor was 25 years old, and had signed with Montreal after being released by Charm City. He had a small history of back injury until that time, but nothing too eyebrow raising. He’d been bumping for CCJ at the time, and was looking quite prospecty. The only thing on his record for 2037 was a suspension due to a brawl, but he still lost a point of Movement and two of Stuff in the off-season before suffering his strain. He lost two more points of stuff and another movement the off-season after, and was basically done in the BBA. He has all the earmarks of a guy who was on his way out regardless, but the injury probably hastened the inevitable.

Gerald Keynes: Keynes was 24 years old with Valencia when he was diagnosed with an April strain. He came back from it to post a solid 3.43 ERA, so apparently had no serious ill effects, but a fractured shoulder blade brought his season to an unhappy ending. He lost three points of stuff that off-season, and then suffered another low-grade strain in 2039 and lost both movement and control. Are all these due to the strain? Dunno. The fracture was a bigger impact on paper. Regardless, he was out of the BBA a year later, and retired completely after spending one season in the UMEBA.
I’m surprised to find that these are concerning cases. There are only two of them, so let’s not hit the panic button. And they’ve had problems beyond strains. But I don’t like seeing ratings drain like this, so there’s another quick study to look at across all of baseball in the seven years of data I’ve got to play with.

Ultimately, both of these guys were moderately young and at least looking to be pretty solid.

Off Topic
SEVERE STRAINS (2-3 months)


Hiroyuki Rin : Rin was 32 and in Wichita when he suffered a severe strain. He came back to pitch, but lost a point of stuff that next off-season, and really wasn’t the same. He retired in 2041. I’m sure the injury didn’t help him, but I’d be hard-pressed to declare it the cause of his eventual retirement. Rin had an interesting injury history that includes a Tommy John surgery in 2029 that he came back from strong. If injuries shortened his career, it was probably a moderate string of back injuries more than the strain. That said, Rin also suffered a shoulder strain the following year.


Zhuo-cheng Kin : Kin’s career consisted of about 50 innings, 20 of which he threw in 2038. His 4.18 ERA says he wasn’t bad when he pitched, but he had great trouble staying on the field. He had considerable issues with his back as a younger pitcher, and tore a labrum two years before this strain. He also had a strained triceps, and two bouts of forearm stiffness that year prior. After the strain that put him on this list, he did a second number on his labrum and that was all she wrote.

He was released and formally retired that off season.
Two tepid cases as far as analysis goes. At least for me. In neither can I say the big strain obviously made a difference, but I also can’t say it didn’t.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by StormZ_23 » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:44 pm

I don't even remember who Maanico was, I guess that injury really did ruin his career
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by jiminyhopkins » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:42 pm

Can't wait till you get to the torn labrums
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:12 pm

2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)


Following on again, let’s take a look at the next category of elbow injuries: tendonitis. Perhaps we’ll take a reach and look at the torn flexor tendon, too, as these are all tendon-related.

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1

TENDONITIS/FLEXOR TENDONS:

The BBA had three cases of tendonitis in 2038, and saw one pitcher suffer a torn flexor tendon:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
2038627SPMadison WolvesRahmat SubadioTendinitis4weeks
2038320RPDes Moines KernelsEnrique VázquezTendinitis4weeks
2038721SPMontreal BlazersHsui-chen RuanTendinitis5weeks
2038518RPEdmonton JackrabbitsJorge ElizondoTorn flexor tendon11months

Clearly there’s a major difference between tendonitis and a tear, which makes obvious sense. But it leads me to question whether tendonitis is an indicator of a future tear. Do any of these players have histories that suggest the two could be tied?

Let’s take a look.
Off Topic
TENDONITIS

Rahmat Subadio : Subadio was 26 years old the year of this injury. He showed a 2-point stuff loss in the year after it, but I note he was/is a swing man and stars some games. So that could just be an artificial impact of the position setting. Until that injury, he had a moderately eventful history, but not severe—and none of it was around the elbow. Afterward he went on to have elbow soreness, but has not had further incidences directly attributable to the tendon.

Enrique Vázquez : Vasquez was 27 and a highly successful reliever for Des Moines in the year of his injury. He was a guy with a huge injury past, however, including Tommy John surgery at age 17, surgery for bone chips at age 21 and again at 22. He tore his rotator cuff at age 25, and then in 2038 he also suffered a heavy bout of shoulder inflammation in addition to the tendonitis. In other words, he was a classic case of “can’t stay healthy.” His ratings actually held on pretty well until just before 2037, but these 2038 injuries were a death knell, and though he pitched in the minors for another year, his career was done.

Nothing here suggests the tendonitis was anything but just another check mark in the very long list of ailments Vasquez dealt with.

Hsui-chen Ruan : Ruan had only a two-season career in the bigs, the last being the year of this injury. He was never particularly good, and though he had a fairly normal set of bumps and bruises along his path, I can’t say injuries were the cause of that “not very good.” I mean, he was kind of AAAA all the way down. Still, in 2038 he suffered this tendonitis, then had a setback. Then he followed that up with a bout of serious inflammation of the shoulder—which is interesting in that Vasquez had that combo in 2038, too. He lost two points of stuff in the off-season update, which seems eerily familiar, too.

Regardless, he never pitched in the majors again and his control also fell off the following year, though he did throw a no-hitter in the minors even after that. He was released after 2042 and has not yet caught on with another team in either league.


FLEXOR TENDON TEAR

Jorge Elizondo : Elisondo was 23 and starting what looks to be a three-season career with Edmonton when he tore his flexor tendon. Until that point he’d been a real prospect, pitching in minor league all-star games and being named the FPL pitcher of the year in 2037.

His injury history was fairly clean … except … he had torn that flexor earlier, back when he was 18. So at age 23 he did it again. He’d lost a point of stuff earlier, and then appears to have lost another in the off-season of his recovery. The following year he gained movement and lost control. I note only that 11 months is what is known in baseball recovery circles as a long-damned time. He was waived and claimed three times, then released and signed and released.

Given this small size, it’s probably unwise to take this to the bank, but I don’t see any real direct relationship between tendonitis and eventual flexor tears. Based on Elizondo’s case, I should probably pull all the cases of tears and see what they resulted in. I think in his case, since he was effective when he could pitch and sought after enough to be claimed and signed several times, it’s reasonable to say the injury cost him whatever career he was on a path to have.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 2:52 pm

2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)


Following on again, let’s take a look at the next category of elbow injuries: bone issues. To recall, here are the entire set of elbow injuries.

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1
So, since everything else is soft-tissue, I’m grouping the fracture and the bone chip removal together because they have to do with bones. There is some chance that the cause of these injuries are different. Bone chips has the connotation of wear due to throwing, whereas I suppose a fracture can happen as much by being hit with a ball, or whatever. That said, I note that in both cases the game assessed the injury as occurring “while pitching, ” FWIW.


BONE INJURIES:

In 2038, the BBA had two pitchers suffer injuries to the bones of the elbow:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
203847RPMexico City AztecsWilliam DawsonFractured elbow4-5months
2038724RPWichita AviatorsDan Westbone chips4-5months
I note that in both cases, the player lost between 4-5 months, a similarity that seems reasonable, since both are require healing of the bone.

Let’s take a look to see what kind of impact these injuries made.

Off Topic
BONE INJURIES

William Dawson : Dawson is 31 right now, and in the SFB system. He looks like he could still pitch a little in the big leagues. In 2038 he was with Mexico City, and he was pretty good, as his 3.59 career ERA in 348 innings attests to. His 2038 season came to an end with that fractured elbow, however, and his ratings (8/6/7 in the off-season before) fell to 5/5/6 afterward.

Was that when we went to relative ratings? Dunno. But the fact is that other pitchers in this little study didn’t move like that, so I’m fairly comfortable saying the injury was significant.

Since that time his ratings have gently grown as he made his way through Calgary’s system and into Charlotte’s, then Rockville’s and Louisville’s before finding himself in San Fernando. At 31, and 6/6/6, you could see him throwing in the majors again, but it seems an almost air-tight case that his fracture elbow totally changed his career arc. It was the only major injury in what was otherwise a pretty healthy run.


Dan West : Dan West was 25 years old when he underwent surgery for bone chips. He’d been pretty good, if not a little inconsistent. Some might say his early success was related to Vancouver’s park, and I’m sure they’d be right. But he had to throw on the road, too, and those first two seasons of his career were pretty danged good. Makes sense, right? He was the Mounties’ first round pick in 2030. He tore his rotator cuff a year later, though.

By 2038 those were far in the rear-view mirror, though. He’d fought through them, and other than some blister issues and a very few bumps and bruises, West was healthy. His 9/4/6 ratings had dropped a little before the surgery, but fell off another point of stuff after it, then another point a year later—which leads me to ask how long the injury code might be playing here, or how much is just random noise.

That’s the thing about unknowable things. You get no answers, but that doesn’t keep you from asking the questions.

Regardless, he hung in there and pitched effectively until 2040, when he tore a ligament in his elbow, and retired that off-season

What do we make of these two cases? A fracture seems to have clearly cost Dawson his career, while bone chips seemed to be basically a bit of a bump in the road for West. Yes, it influenced ratings, but he pitched well enough when he returned.

Again, sample size is so small here as to render sweeping comments dangerous, but I’ll admit I was surprised to see both of these seem to affect ratings. I wouldn’t have expected it, anyway, though I don’t have anything but my gut to back up why I think that.

Bottom line, though: NEED MOAR DATA
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:04 pm

Let’s jump down one notch, and cover the nerve issues before we get into ligament and Tommy John kinds of questions—which I know are interesting, but … well …anyway. Here’s the totality of elbow issues, again:

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1

NERVE INJURIES:

We see nerve issues comprised only 2 of 31 elbow injuries in 2038. Not too many. The two were:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
2038518RPEdmonton JackrabbitsJohnny MorinRadial nerve decompression surgery8-9months
203831SPYellow Springs NineRonald CliftonUlnar nerve entrapment3months

As best as I can tell by my Google-granted medical degree, these are essentially the same injury, but in Morin’s case, the entrapment was so bad it required surgery to repair, whereas in Clifton’s case it was treatable by rest.

What do I know, though?

Off Topic
NERVE INJURIES

Johnny Morin : Morin was a respectable, if easy to dismiss, starter for Edmonton during the very lean years. He had a good 2034, but otherwise, well … he was 28 years old when he had nerve decompression surgery. Before then he’d had your usual strains and stiffnesses, and a case of surgery to remove bone chips. His ratings had stayed solid at 7/7/7 through most of that, but had dropped to 6/7/7 the off-season before the surgery. After decompression surgery he dropped to 4/6/7 that following off-season update. It was his first issue regarding his elbow, as far as I can tell.

The good news is that he’s been healthy ever since. The bad news is that he’s only pitched 45 innings in the major leagues since then—though he does have a no-hitter in AAA. His ratings have dropped off, though, and after being released by the UMEBA’s Jerusalem franchise, there are questions about his career.


Ronald Clifton : I don’t know why Clifton is on this list, because he was a career minor league player. My guess is that he was sitting in DFA when I took the injury report, and since OOTP still considered players in DFA as major leaguers … well … there you go. Regardles, we’ve got him so let’s look at him.

Clifton was 21 and pitching in A-ball (Fort Worth) at the time of his injury. He was okay. A semi-rpospect who had gone to winter ball the season before. I note he had thrown 192 innings in 31 starts the year before. That’s a lot of innings for a 20 year old, so I ponder my own involvement in his history—which is full of strains and aches, but nothing major until the nerve entrapment. When he returned he pitched well enough to win a Pitcher of the Month award, but by the off-season his ratings had cratered from 5/7/5 to 4/6/4, and the writing was on the wall. Three years later he had shoulder inflammation that set-back into surgery, and his career was officially over—but to be direct, his shot at a big league career was really done after the entrapment.

Similar to the look into tendonitis injuries, I’m not sure what to really make of these two. Neither were star players by any means, so the idea that both had issues keeping jobs after their injuries is hard to assess. Neither seemed to come back particularly well, though, so it seems reasonable to say that when you’re fiddling with nerves, well, it’s got to be pretty sensitive.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:11 pm

2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)


All right. We’ve finally made it to the big Kahuna of elbow problems, the grand marquis—the UCL, or ulnar collateral ligament, i.e., the thing that goes haywire and creates what we now all know as Tommy John surgery. One more time, let’s look at the whole set:

Elbow Injury TypeCount
Inflammation10
Strain6
Tendonitis3
Fractured1
Bone Chip Removal1
Torn flexor tendon1
Ruptured UCL3
Ligament Reconstruction Surgery2
Partially torn UCL1
Torn UCL1
Ulnar nerve entrapment1
Radial nerve decompression surgery1

UCL INJURIES:

Bottom line we see the game labeled these kinds of injuries with four tags, which I’ll lump together to a degree. I do ponder if the game actually treats them differently or not, though I’d guess not merely because the recovery times are essentially the same. That said, it’s always possible that there is something in the data that says a rupture is different from a tear and is treated differently.

Here are the cases under review:

YearMonthDayPOSTeamPlayerInjury#Duration
203893RPAtlantic City GamblersJavier VenegasRuptured UCL12months
2038328SPHuntsville PhantomsLudwig CharlesRuptured UCL12months
2038225SPSan Antonio OutlawsJorge ÁlvarezRuptured UCL11months
2038419SPMexico City AztecsArmando RodríguezPartially torn UCL11months
203898RPWichita AviatorsLuis GarcíaTorn UCL11months
2038513SPSan Antonio OutlawsElliot Bucklandligament recon13months
2038327RPAtlantic City GamblersBob Sandersonligament recon11-12months
All total we have seven occurrences of UCL injuries in the BBA, which at the time was a 30-team league. San Antonio and Atlantic City were the two big winners, with two each. Mexico City, Huntsville (now Chicago), and Wichita each contributed one pitcher to the Grim Reaper.

Or is it?

The Grim Reaper, I mean.

The Tommy John surgery has become almost legendary for sending pitcher back into the fray even stronger than they were before the injury. It’s to a level that I believe I’ve even seen conversation of top prospects considering undergoing the surgery early in order to get it out of the way. No, I don’t think that’s happening, but the idea that such a conversation exists is, on its own, an interesting question.

So let’s look at these 2038 UCL injuries, and see what they wound up doing in the game itself.


Off Topic
UCL RUPTURES

Javier Venegas : Venegas was 26 years old at the time of his injury. He’d appeared in 216 games, starting over 100 of them. He’d had four minor injuries over his career, none of them related to the elbow. After having been a top prospect for some time (topping out at #33), his ratings had flagged just a touch, but he was still a solid pitcher.

He went from 9/4/5 to 8/4/5 in the off-season update a few months later, then 6/3/4 the following season (age 27). Bounced into and out of a couple organizations, and dropped to 6/2/4 in 2041 and retired from baseball that winter. Throughout that time, he had no other injury.

Let’s call the Tommy John surgery the end of Venegas’s career, shall we? Clearly no TJS bounce in his case.


Ludwig Charles : Ludwig had been in the bigs for five seasons with Huntsville, but at the very end of Spring Training of 2038 he got hit with the UCL rupture, and essentially that was all she wrote. He was 27 at the time. Now, there’s some mitigating discussion to be had in his case. His ratings were already fading a bit before the injury. He’d thrown a LOT of innings as a kid (three shutouts in the minors in 2034 make me ponder pitch counts). He had his ration of injuries beforehand, though none of them were particularly severe. I’m certain injuries are a bit randomized, but there’s this kind of thing right here to load the dices with, right?

Regardless, the injury dropped his ratings from 5/6/5 to 4/6/5. See what I mean there? His career was already in trouble, but the injury pushed him hard over the line. Later rating changes brought his stuff up, but his control down. A 5/6/3 is not going to cut it. A year later he was out of baseball.

So, yeah, case number two that I put squarely in the “didn’t come back well” bucket.


Jorge Álvarez : Alvarez is currently 26 and still pitching in the Twin Cities organization. In 2038, he was 21 years old and entering his second year with San Antonio. He’d appeared in 34 games as a rookie and posted a sparkline 2.54 ERA. He had no real history of any injury—and none for three years. The world, as they say, was his oyster.

He entered Spring Training at 11/4/7. He exited with a UCL rupture and 10/4/6. A year later he’d worked back to 11/4/5—so there’s a small glimmer of hope that players might recover from this kind of injury. Alas, though, he tore his rotator cuff a season later, and after recovering from the two together he’s down to 8/4/4. He’s only 26, so he may still find his way back to the bigs, but the clock is ticking.

Bottom line here is that these three cases of ruptured UCLs do not give me the warm fuzzy feeling I was kind of hoping for. Unlike Ludwig’s case, or Venegas to a degree, I don’t see anything to suggest Alvarez was abused from a workload standpoint. And really, that would more a matter of whether you increase likelihood of injury by overuse than the impact of the surgery, right?

Those are two different factors, I’d think. You want to avoid damage to begin with, but you’d hope Tommy John Surgery doesn’t kill careers totally since it doesn’t seem to in real baseball. Yet, for ligament ruptures, here are there cases and all three seem to have had their careers thrown pretty close to in the dumper.

So, is it ruptures? Is that it? Will players with torn ligaments fare better than those with ruptured ones? I dunno. Let’s take a look.

Off Topic
UCL TEARS


Armando Rodríguez : Pull up a chair, bud, because this one is going to be good.

Rodriguez was 25 years old and pitching for Mexico City when he tore his UCL. He was a pretty good pitcher at the time, but he was out of baseball three years later. That said, he tore his rotator cuff at age 17. He was constantly injured from that point on, too. Shoulder stuff, mostly, until 2033 when he had elbow tendonitis, and then elbow soreness in 2034, which was a prelude to his first UCL. Yes, that’s right, Rodriguez’s injury was he second Tommy John surgery.

He actually came back from that surgery with his solid 8/7/8 ratings intact.

He suffered chronic elbow soreness, though, and then tore his labrum in 2036. Even then his ratings didn’t crash until he TORE HIS ROTATOR CUFF AGAIN in 2037 and dropped to 6/6/6.

It was on his return from this injury that he suffered the UCL tear that put him on this report. His ratings dropped to 6/6/4 then. Upon his return he faced constant pain, but did see his ratings “bump” to 7/6/3 in 2040. After another pain-plagued attempt (six injuries in that period), Rodriguez finally hung them up so go sit in a salt bath for the rest of his life.

Ultimately, I don’t think this case tells us anything expressly about the UCL injury. I mean, Rodriguez lacked only a second labrum surgery to achieve the notorious triple double of two Tommy Johns, two labrums, and two rotator cuff surgeries.


Luis García : Garcia was 23 in 2038, and was making his debut with Wichita. He had no track record of abuse that I can tell—though PAP and pitch counts are not provided in the reports, of course. He had bone chips removed eight years earlier, and a bout with elbow inflammation four years before—so there was a little elbow-related history there. Nothing majorly concerning, but real.

His injury happened in September, and in the next year’s update his ratings actually improved from 8/2/8 to 9/2/8. He returned and pitched a little more in the majors, but in the end he couldn’t overcome that “2” movement. He retired from baseball in 2041.
All right. Bottom line here is that even in the Rodriguez case, there exists some information here that says it’s possible that a ligament tear all by itself does not have to destroy careers. Both Rodriguez and Garcia actually did return from UCL tears with ratings intact at points.

Yes. Small sample size.
Off Topic
LIGAMENT RECONSTRUCTION

A word here. I don’t know that elbow reconstruction is different from Tommy John Surgery. I’m actually pretty sure it’s the same thing. But the game uses both terminologies, so I separate them here.

Elliot Buckland : It is so good to see Elliott Buckland, at age 35, pitching well—even if it is with Nashville. We all know his history. In 2023 he was with San Antonio and, when crossed with that other grand injury magnate John Wick, was going to be the Outlaw’s future. Alas.

At 19 he had shoulder impingement, and after that it was just one damned thing after another. Nothing really serious, mind you, but always something going wrong. Until 2o37 anyway, when he partially tore his labrum, and then 2038 when the UCL went kablam.

I will say this: Tommy John did not hurt his ratings.

Shoulder inflammation in 2041 dropped him a bit, but it’s all grown back. So, I guess, looked at in the entirety of the story you can say Elliot Buckland is a success story—an epic of survival.


Bob Sanderson : Let’s be quick here. The Turtle was 35 years old with ratings fading a bit when he tore his UCL in spring training and quit baseball. The end. He’d torn his labrum three years earlier, of course. Otherwise he’d been mostly healthy.

I’d like to know what his ratings would have been had he returned, but his decision to retire makes sense within the context of life. Baseball had made him a very rich man, after all. I’d much rather sip margheritas by the pool than deal with a painful year+ recuperation process.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:11 pm

THE END OF THE LINE FOR 2038 ELBOW INJURIES


That brings us to the end of looking at elbow injuries incurred in 2038. I’d say, at the end of the day, elbow injuries suck.

Most of them seem to have harmed pitchers’ careers and development paths, many substantially. The idea that pitchers CAN come back from Tommy John surgery still seems open and active. We’ve had it happen in this sample, though the data set is both small and noisy.

If I continue to make time to look at these, I’ll likely group the bigger sample size by injury type. For example, I want to say there are probably a total of 45 or 50 UCL/Ligament tears in the data set. Perhaps a look at them all would give a better feel for their real impact—though the more recent the injury, the less chronal real estate exists to judge these things by.

Still, I think it’s quite possible the noise related to a not inconsiderable injury world out there can be filtered out, I would not be surprised to see something that says X% (50? … 75? … 25?) of Tommy John surgeries result in pitchers returning as good as new, or maybe even better.

The data here would also suggest – but only suggest — that there may actually be a difference in a rupture and a tear, with a tear leading to more positive outcomes than a rupture.
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Re: 2038 In-retrospect (Following Pitcher Injuries: Elbows)

Post by RonCo » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:22 pm

Had to go fix some links. Sorry about that. :)
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