Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

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RonCo
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Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:27 pm

All right, that title isn’t quite right, now, is it? We’re not done with April, and so we could see a few more pitchers go down. But a conversation in Slack got me interested in pitcher injuries in the BBA and I had a couple minutes. So I went back to my various script outputs and put together a database of every injury the league has seen since 2037.
Off Topic
I note that my injury data for 2042 only goes through July. It won’t matter for this particular feature, because I’m only looking at injuries in April, but it will become important if I go further.
This gives me some really interesting stuff to dig into, and I suspect I’ll be doing several deeper dives as time goes on.

But let’s start wherever. Since we’re in April, I decided to look at all pitcher injuries that happened in April of each year, then split them by team. I should note that this data is ALL injuries, be they bumps and bruises or be they Tommy John or rotator cuffs or whatnot. I note, too, that April injuries are perhaps interesting in that they can disrupt teams seasons more completely than an injury in September—which can certainly kill post season hopes, but which at least leave the player contributing for most of the year.

Anyway, here’s the raw BBA data:

Team2037203820392040204120422043Total
Charm City Jimmies743133324
Long Beach Surfers33223417
Boise Spuds32222415
Brooklyn Robins32242215
Madison Wolves7133115
Edmonton Jackrabbits51115114
San Fernando Bears14116114
Las Vegas Hustlers322211213
Louisville Sluggers34211213
Omaha Cyclones23222213
Phoenix Talons412211213
Calgary Pioneers12114312
Nashville Bluebirds4132212
Hawaii Tropics631111
Jacksonville Hurricanes11142211
Mexico City Aztecs1332211
Atlantic City Gamblers21221210
Wichita Aviators52310
Vancouver Mounties13239
Des Moines Kernels222118
New Orleans Crawdads1221118
Yellow Springs Nine13318
Chicago Black Sox3227
Huntsville Phantoms4116
Montreal Blazers3216
Portland Lumberjacks13116
Sacramento Mad Popes3115
Charlotte Cougars2114
San Antonio Outlaws2114
Seattle Storm1214
Twin Cities River Monsters1124
Valencia Stars11114
Rockville Pikemen112
Total79414136434543328

So, yeah. This is really interesting.

First, I take a scan at the bottom/summary row and see that the overall occurrence of injury in April has not varied much since 2038, but that 2038 represents a major drop in injury occurrence. This, of course, is when the league (Matt) decided to drop injury levels a notch.

The next thing I naturally look at is the ranked order, and the difference in the number of injuries overall. Wow. Rockville has had only two April injuries to pitchers in all these seven seasons, whereas Charm City has had, wait for it, twenty-four. Yikes. I don’t know what’s going on in Charm City, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see me spend some time on them in another feature coming soon.

Of course, that 2037 is kind of getting in the way now, isn’t it?

Let’s take a fresh shot of injuries that have occurred only since we made the settings change in 2038.

Team203820392040204120422043Total
Charm City Jimmies43133317
Long Beach Surfers3223414
San Fernando Bears4116113
Boise Spuds2222412
Brooklyn Robins2242212
Calgary Pioneers12114312
Omaha Cyclones3222211
Las Vegas Hustlers22211210
Louisville Sluggers4211210
Jacksonville Hurricanes1142210
Mexico City Aztecs332210
Edmonton Jackrabbits111519
Phoenix Talons1221129
Vancouver Mounties13239
Madison Wolves13318
Nashville Bluebirds13228
Atlantic City Gamblers122128
New Orleans Crawdads221117
Yellow Springs Nine3317
Chicago Black Sox3227
Des Moines Kernels22116
Portland Lumberjacks13116
Hawaii Tropics3115
Wichita Aviators235
Charlotte Cougars2114
Valencia Stars11114
Montreal Blazers213
Seattle Storm213
Twin Cities River Monsters123
Huntsville Phantoms112
Sacramento Mad Popes112
San Antonio Outlaws112
Rockville Pikemen11
Total414136434543249

Still not great news for Charm City, but it’s a little better.

Across the league teams are averaging just over 1.1 pitcher injury per April. Charm City is averaging almost three. Rockville has had only a single injury. San Antonio has not been bit in April for some time—which shows the flaws of this simple 1-month cut to a reasonable degree. This is a comprehensive look across the league rather and a surgical cut on impact.

Historically we see Long Beach has had April problems, and San Fernando, usually fairly lucky with pitchers in April, had a terrible 2042. Boise has drawn a tough lot this year, relative to others.

Anyway…you can see, I think, there are hundreds of questions you could ask, and I expect I’ll ask a bunch of them as I go forward with what I expect now will be a series.

Things I’m pondering include, but are not limited to:
  • How do UCL/Labrum/Rotator Cuff Injuries happening?
  • Which pitchers get hurt, and when (starters vs. relievers)
  • Can I follow individual pitchers?
  • Do pitch types matter? Arm slots? (* Can I even get this data)
  • Do day-to-day injuries point to bigger injuries in the future?
So hang on to your seats (and feel free to ask your own questions here)
, things are getting ready to be nerdy.
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Re: Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:39 pm

Here's the same data using only lost-time injuries:
Team203820392040204120422043Total
Calgary Pioneers21227
Brooklyn Robins11215
Boise Spuds1214
Edmonton Jackrabbits1214
Jacksonville Hurricanes11114
Las Vegas Hustlers11114
Louisville Sluggers314
Nashville Bluebirds2114
New Orleans Crawdads2114
Charlotte Cougars213
Charm City Jimmies1113
Chicago Black Sox1113
Long Beach Surfers33
Madison Wolves123
Mexico City Aztecs213
Omaha Cyclones213
Yellow Springs Nine213
Montreal Blazers112
Phoenix Talons112
Portland Lumberjacks112
Sacramento Mad Popes112
Vancouver Mounties112
Atlantic City Gamblers11
Des Moines Kernels11
Hawaii Tropics11
Huntsville Phantoms11
San Fernando Bears11
Seattle Storm11
Twin Cities River Monsters11
Valencia Stars11
Wichita Aviators0
San Antonio Outlaws0
Rockville Pikemen0
Total16111114171382

Charm City looks considerably better here, as does Long Beach. Calgary worse. Wichita, San Antonia, and Rockville lead the pack with zero!

Lost-time injuries seem, in general, to be about 25-30% of the total.
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Re: Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by recte44 » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:54 pm

Twin Cities seems pretty low on the lists given Scott's reaction.

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Re: Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by RonCo » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:12 pm

Yeah...but realize that (1) this is just April (because I'm fiddling around), and (2) it's only BBA (because I haven't been tracking stuff in the minors in the past).
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Re: Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by bcslouck » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:16 pm

:champs:
Brandon Slouck
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Charm City Jimmies (2029 - 2049)
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Re: Pitcher Injuries In April (2037-2043)

Post by CTBrewCrew » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:54 pm

Interesting....
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