2042 Player Option Overview: Opt-outs

[RonCo]

WILL GET LINKS IN SHORTLY ... RUNNING OUT OF TIME!


As noted in an earlier post, the league saw a new record of 32 players who held team options heading into the winter months, and now that the Landis is over, we get our first views of what their process is going to be.

Since it’s still way too early to make a real judgement on those who cut ties and fled for greener pastures, today I’ll take a spin through the guys who decided to stay with their current clubs.


DEMPSTER, PIKEMEN COME TO TERMS

The first movement on this front was the news that Rockville GM Aaron Weiner opened up the pocketbook and signed 33-year-old Pikeman starter Arthur Dempster to a five season extension for $115M, split in five equal $23M installments. Even discounting the All-Star and Nebraska bonuses, that’s some serious grub and—of more interest—serious time for a guy who will be 34 as 2043 starts—which makes a difference because this extension builds on top of that original option season, meaning it will run through Dempster’s age-39 seasons (assuming that last year’s option is picked up).

Of course, Dempster is some serious pitcher. He’s a three-time Nebraska winner and has been at the topof the Rockville rotation for as long as the Pikemen have been at the top of the Atlantic division. He’s still got his velocity, and still has his forkball. So, yes, it’s risky. But it’s understandable that the club would keep him in the corral for as long as he’s got gas in the tank.

Of particular note is that the agreement means that the pair of Dempster and Dan Cannon will stay together for at least three more seasons barring Cannon opting to get out of his mega-deal.

Ron’s Grade: Good Decision by Dempster to parlay one year into six.

ATLANTIC CITY PITCHERS LET IT RIDE

Joshua Biddle’s Gamblers had a pair of aces to worry about, and got word that both of them were sticking around. Ultimately, they’d probably have been happy with half of that.

At 30, ex-Nebraska winner Kevin Morales is still a top line kind of starter, and though the club will pay him $18 next year, that represents a $6m pay cut. He was 15-12 for Atlantic City last season, and helped keep the team in the playoff hunt all year. From Morales’s point of view the decision was probably a good one. He holds a pair of player options for $12m the following two seasons. $18m is probably about what he could command, so staying doesn’t hurt him in the short term, and that $24m in guaranteed options buffers the risk of his performance falls off. Assuming Morales throws as he’d expect, though, he can decline that next $12m option, and go on his merry way to free agency at 31 years old.

Ron’s Grade: A good decision by Morales, though arguments can be made in the other direction.

Chet Parrish, on the other hand, is a guy that team officials have probably been pushing to leave the roost, and for good reason. The 29 year-old threw a 6.30 ERA in 2041, and followed it with an “improved” 5.26 last year. You can live with that in the #5 slot if you really have to, we suppose, but you’d like to spend a whole lot less than $12M to do it. Yes, pitching is at a premium, but so is $24M, which is what Parrish’s combined options guarantee him. So you can be pretty certain that when Mr. and Mrs. Parrish sat down to talk finances the penciled in “stay in Atlantic City” as their primary strategic decision.

Ron’s Grade: Good decision. Clear win for Parrish to stay.


RAFAEL REMAINS A JIMMIE

Feliciano Rafael’s contract says he’s going to get $20M a season for four years—or at least three. That opt-out in 2046 could wind up being useful if he’s still got value left as age 33, which one assumes he will. But, while it’s technically possible he could drop a six-season, $22M kind of deal into the mix, we’d guess a guaranteed $80M is just too much to give up on right now for that kind of uncertainty.

On the team’s side, one assumes a balanced view overall. A healthy Rafael is a difference maker. They guy has a Nebraska, after all. But he’s sometimes hard to baby along (he hasn’t seen even 190 innings since 2038), and $20M is a hefty price tag for that kind of risk.

Ron’s Grade: Good decision


THREE STICK WITH SOX

In Chicago, the Sox had three players with them over the barrel, and as far as I can tell all three took their whacks at the club.

Catcher Hotha Popo can still play him some defense, but a .217 average from the 31 year old probably gives Benny Vitale the hives. At least he walked a little. Popo owned a $9M opt out, but chose to stay. He’ll have a $9M option again next year as a 32-year-old.

In the big picture, we’d say Chicago is happy to have a guy like Popo on the roster, but would be $5M happier to have him at $4M. The perspective from Popo’s side, however, is rosier. He’s locked into $18M in those two seasons—a number he’d probably not get with a 4-season deal in the free agent market. Assuming those two seasons play out, he dumps back into the market as a 33 year-old, or maybe goes over the UMEBA.

Ron’s Grade: Popo would have been insane to give up his guaranteed bucks

The Sox late-season acquisition of Dusty Rhodes left them another case. Rhodes owned an opt-out of a $5M/$8.5M future, but both of those years include team options. So Rhodes could either opt out, and try to get an equivalent deal at age 38—or make the team pay him $1.125M this year and $1.7 next to buy him out. Rhodes has been a sub-replacement level player for two seasons now, and hit .160/.250/.200 with a short Sox stint. You tell me what makes the most sense.

Ron’s Grade: Good decision to make the Sox give him cash to sit on the bench or pay him to leave and maybe finish up in the middle east.

Finally comes the case of 32-year-old Luis Gonzalez, who has been a solid member of this franchise for five seasons. We’re guessing the club would have been happier if he’d chosen to try his luck on the market. Maybe he should have. I don’t know. I’m inclined to say there’s no way Gonzalez would have gotten $13M, and I think that’s pretty fair assessment, but there’s certainly a chance he might have gotten a little more guaranteed if he could spread it over three or four seasons. Unfortunately, his -.4 WAR last year came a ta bad time, though.

Bottom line, I’m pretty sure the Sox aren’t thrilled to pay him $13M this year, and I’m not convinced that giving up that $13M would help Gonzalez. In fact, I think it goes the other way. If Gonzo can put up semi-decent numbers during that last $13M, he might leverage those to another decent deal at age 33. If not in the BBA, then certainly in the UMEBA.

Ron’s Grade: Take the money and run, man. Good decision for Gonzalez.


FOUR STAND PAT IN VEGAS

36-year-old Jimmy Greenwood decided $18M reasons to stay in Las Vegas were 18 million enough. One makes the assumption the Brett Schroeder will keep him under that 100 IP limit to keep from paying him $6M more, but you never know. Greenwood can still throw a little, as his 1.47 ERA in 18 relieve innings showed after Vegas scooped him up. There was some chance that someone would have paid him more than $18M guaranteed, but probably not for less than three seasons, and at the end of the day if Greenwood can still provide value as a 37 year old, he can always go back to the well next year.

Ron’s Grade: Seems like a good choice to me. I mean, if you’re going to have to play in the Frontier, might as well be for $18M.

Chris Rios, at 33, however, is a can of worm of a different color. He’s taking his $16M, which is hard to argue about. But he dropped a quite respectable performance last year (yeah, he struggled in the Beach, but then, so did everyone), and at age 33 I’m wondering if he might miss striking while the iron is still hot.

I mean, yeah, he wasn’t getting $16M this year, but if he just got $10M or $12M per for three or four seasons that might have been a better option. If he gets hurt in 2043, this turns into a really bad decision. The counterpoint, of course, is that if he has a solid year and stays healthy he would hit the FA market at 34 with that $16M already banked.

Ron’s Grade: This was probably a bad decision by Rios.

Of course, at 30 years old, the scales were even more interesting for Ken Bates, who holds not one, but two player options in the next two seasons, but for $8.5M. At the end of the day, I guess I’ll call this one a push, but I could easily be turned to see it as a bad decision to stick around for that $8.5. Given the pitching world of today, I’d not be surprised to see someone go to three or four seasons at that $8M—and, though his results in 2042 weren’t so great, given his leftiness, I could see that winding up more in the $10M range.

A lot about how this decision pans out probably depends on Bates’ health. If he gets hurt this year, he left money on the table. If he stays healthy he can play the same bingo with that last $8.5M option.

Ron’s Grade: Like I said, I’ll call it a push, but there’s a lot of variability. Right now it’s hard to argue with staying the course for a guaranteed $17M.

Diego Lindt, however, at age 31, accepted $1.8M to play for one season in Vegas, and to be direct, I think he should have bailed to look for a longer deal. Lindt is a solid bullpen guy who would probably draw north of $2.5 for a handful of seasons right now. Throwing an age 32 season on a 1-year-deal when you don’t’ have to is a risky proposition. He’s not a big-name impact guy, but I’d guess Brett is pretty happy to have him back.

Ron’s Grade: Not in Lindt’s best interest to stick around.


OMAHA KEEPS TWO IN THE NEST

Jimmy Starks, Jr. opted into the last two seasons of his deal, accepting $12.5M per. Seems reasonable to me. He’s been a Hawk for life, and a good enough little producer at one point. His decline has been a bit angst-causing, though, because at $12.5M I’m pretty sure Justin Niles would like to see that 3-5WAR kind of Starks rather than the 1-2 WAR version. The problem is that he’s got an outfielder’s glove, but an infielder’s bat. If he could play above average defense on the infield, that switchie bat would be mighty attractive.

So, technically, I could see another team giving him three or four years at a little bit better guarantee than he has now, but why risk that. If you’re Starks I say you take your $24M, hope to be productive enough to grab a new contract in 2045.

Ron’s Grade: Good Decision, Push at worst.

Starting Pitcher Jose Arellano opted into his $4M deal rather than go to open arbitration. I guess that’s a good decision given the parameters the game is given out (his projection for his last arbitration year is in $3.8M. So good on him. But I struggle with the game’s projection. At 14-8. 4.84, Arellano was a better than league average pitcher. If I were doing the arbitrating I’d put his value at $6-$7M. But I digress. None of that matters in the end.

Ron’s Grade: Given the game around him, I’d say good choice buy Arellano.


KINNEY STIFFS LUMBERJACKS

Imagine you are Ernie Kinney. You are 31 years old and have just thrown a 6.95 EAR in 72 innings this year. Which is a major improvement on the 7.20 trud you dropped in 105 innings the year before. You own a player option to return for $7.9 more of those millions.

Now imagine you’re sitting in your back-woods cabin in the Oregon woods, and there’s a knock at your door. Imagine you get up from your recliner where you’ve been sipping your favorite brew and throwing down a Kookie chaser. Imagine opening the door to find the namesake of those Kookies standing there in whatever pose you might want to imagine. Think about her leaning in, then, and whispering various things she might do if you’d just decide to opt out of that little contract of yours.

Ron’s Grade: Given all that, it’s a horrible decision to take the $7.9M. Otherwise, Kinney is going to laugh all the way to the bank


TWO BEARS STAY IN THE DEN … MEH

So, RJ Hughes came to the San Fernando Bears in a Rule 6 move, and tossed a 6.40 ERA in 26 starts, going 5-14. Today he opted into making $3.4M. Well, fer shure. Likewise, 32-year-old reliever Marko Efremov agreed to play for $1.4M next year after throwing 86 innings out of the Bear bullpen, posing a 3-2 record with a 4.78 ERA. I guess I’d call both of these Pushes, with a lean toward one (Hughes) being a good decision and Efrenov being a bad one.

The wild card here is how the UMEBA is going to change the actual environment.

Now, get me straight, the game probably couldn’t make a really bad decision for either of them given what it probably knows. Hughes probably won’t make any more than that $3.4M, and at 32 you can argue Efrenov might have gotten something similar for two or three years in the right situation. He’s not a bad little reliever, after all.

But these are guys I’d expect could have made hay with some UMEBA teams, especially given the extra cap space they are going to have to work with in 2043.

Ron’s Grade: Hughes: Push/lean good, Efrenov: Push/lean bad


JOSH BROWN TIES FATE TO RIVER MONSTERS

With Twin Cities riding the wave up, veteran Josh Brown stuck around to take a $5.4M payday that has a $4.9M vesting option on top of it. If he goes 200 innings, which hasn’t happened since 2038, he gets an additional $1.5M. The contract vests at 150 innings, which didn’t happen last year. So … yeah, right. This seems like bad business for Brown, who might want to check into whether his agent had a car payment past due.

Brown is a old-timey hand with the Twin Cities club, so maybe there’s some fun in being back in the old stomping grounds, but for the lefty, who is still a solid enough guy, (he went 6-4, 4.87 last year). At 32, the decision to forgo free agency pushes him a year out on the earning path when he finally gets there—perhaps two if the River Monsters decide to push him far enough to keep reap the $4.9M year.

Sure, Brown is no Dan Cannon. But he’s a solid professional pitcher. He’d probably get more than $5M for two years.

Ron’s Grade: Bad decision for Brown


TWO JRs. LAND ON AVIATORS

Let’s face it, the next time Duuane Whitley, Jr is worth $14M a year will be the first time. Okay. Well. That’s not true. Whitley had some good years with Twin Cities, and two really good ones with Wichita. Unfortunately, none of them were the last two. In fact, at age 31, and after posting essentially 1 WAR per season the past two years, people are beginning to more than whisper. Therein lies the issue with six-season deals.

Whitley made only the most obvious decision to opt into not only 1 year at $14M, but two. The contract looked pretty good back four seasons ago when the kid was 27 and dropping real numbers. Now, barring a return to form—which is always possible, but which you wouldn’t bet the ranch, the deal is a bit of an albatross on a cash-strapped franchise.

Ron’s Grade: Good decision for Whitley

The second jr. in the mix, Abe Colbert, Jr. who is 36, agreed to come back for one more season at $8M. Colbert’s knuckle ball still knuckles, though maybe the team might think about finding a new catcher. He walked an eye-popping 9.3 batters a game in 2042. Come to rethink it, maybe the catcher isn’t the issue there.

Regardless, one doubts Colbert would get $8M/1 on the market, though you never know what kind of inefficiencies could spring up. There’s some chance he could get a two or three year deal, but probably not for cash that would make sense to forego the one-shot $8M payday. Worst case, he drops that walk rate in half again, and comes into 2044 as a 38 year old looking for a 1-year deal at less—but still more given he banks this year’s check.

Ron’s Grade: Good Decision for Colbert, Jr. Push at worst.


COSTELLO TAKES $9M TO RETURN TO NINE

As has been documented elsewhere, the Yellow Springs Nine will have outfielder Luis Costello’s services again in 2043 in return for $9M. At 30, the question of whether this was a good decision by Costello is probably dependent upon how many guaranteed years he could get past next in the open market. I’d be shocked if he’d make more than $9M in year one (barring a deeply front-loaded deal). Corner outfielders are in ample supply, though. So it’s hard to call. Would the fact that he can really play defense in the corner out field way the day? It doesn’t help that his days of swinging over to center are now fully past him. There’s also the fact that his injury history is catching up on him. Given that, this could have been his best window to hit the market in.

I’m going to say this is a good decision for him, though. The $9M is an over-pay, and if one assumes he’ll make it to the market next year semi-intact, perhaps he can still make a solid cache for a couple more seasons.

Ron’s Grade: Good decision for Costello, Worst Case Push

[crobillard]

Not that it’s worth talking about but Troop opting out is probably a no brainer. I’m sure he could get more in free agency than 11.4 mil. Probably from me in the end too lol

[bcslouck]

I'm fine with Rafael opting in. Kind of surprised since he had a pretty good year and the market being what it is. But I get why he opted in. Hopefully he can keep giving me above average production and stay relatively healthy.

[7teen]

I wish Kate could have done convinced Kinney to walk. She’s convinced many a men of worse decisions.