THREE-SEASON Playoff Runs (1995-2042)

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THREE-SEASON Playoff Runs (1995-2042)

Post by RonCo » Thu May 21, 2020 5:35 pm

My question to Justin in today’s Three-Strikes podcast got me thinking about playoff runs, and made me remember that a few years back I’d done a little study on the competitive environment where I had looked at streaks of three and five seasons. So I went back and stared at it a little, and then envisioned this little chart I’m posting here—because I think it’s kind of cool, really.

The details: I captured the playoff appearances of each team across the seasons, and then picked out every run of three or more years. Then sorted them such that the cascade flows from the early seasons on down—shorter runs before longer runs. Then, of course, I color-coded the bars to match teams. What resulted was just kind of fun to run my eyes down, so I decided, of course, to throw it down over here because I figure someone else will enjoy it (and – for Sean’s sake – it’s good for a few points, am I right?).

So here it is.

3-Year-PO-Runs-1995-2042.PNG

When looked at this way, a few things stick out for me.
  • First and foremost, you can see why Vegas is the team that would draw Brett Schroeder. It’s vibrant green and red bars stand out over time to declare that franchise as the true flagship of the fleet.
  • The league’s five serious dynasties really stick out: Madison’s in the early days, then New Orleans’ dominance of the 10s overlapped with Vegas through the 20s. Jacksonville’s 30s qualifies as the fourth, and California, officially on the clock as the longest existing run, is now seen to be in that category.
  • I think a lot of people would put Rockville in that same category, but this chart says that’s mostly recency bias. Rockville’s run is definitely strong, but more favorably to Vegas’s first back in the aughts, and maybe Vancouver and Long Beach in those earlier days, too.
  • Then there are interesting “skipping stone” kind of teams. Chicago has had three runs, and may be on their fourth. After nothing until 2016, Louisville is now on their third run—this one looks stout, though, and could wind up joining some of the more gallant dynasties in history if Shaw can keep the bad together.
  • It is worth noting, perhaps, that my Yellow Springs Nine has not had two runs: 2028-2036, and 2037-2042. Without the hiccup in 2037, the team would be sitting at 15 straight post-season appearances. This would have tied Las Vegas’s big run. Alas, still zero Landis moments for us.
  • You may note, too, that I’ve left all the current playoff teams on the chart regardless of whether it was their first, second, or third straight appearance. If history has anything to say, it’s that a few strings will get broken in 2043, and a few have started in 2042!
  • I'm interested to see how expansion changes this once the expansion teams are fully settled--which, as Justin and I just discussed, I suspect is 2044 and beyond for CHA and POR.
Ultimately, you can scan though a lot of teams and get a feel for the ebb and flow of them. It’s also interesting to see the two-season chart, which maybe I’ll do in a bit as a follow-on post to this one. As you can imagine, it’s a bit messier, but can show you another level of stone skipping programs who pop up and disappear for a few seasons before popping up again.

Regardless, I think it’s interesting, and a chart like this stands testimony to the core competitive nature of the league. Yes, we have our Vegas. And California has been a bit of a mini-Vegas here for a bit. But this chart shows something I think is pretty cool.
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Re: THREE-SEASON Playoff Runs (1995-2042)

Post by RonCo » Thu May 21, 2020 5:44 pm

Here is the two-season cascade chart....
2-Year-PO-Runs-1995-2042.png
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