For those maybe looking for a semi-hot take...It's here.Editor's note...There was a prior error in this that was discovered through conversation on slack. Basically RC/27 is a “lineup stat” so ZR needed to be multiplied by 9 as well. So here we are at new numbers and a new analysis!
This is part 7 of an 8 part series.
In case you haven’t read any of the first 5 parts (linked below) there is a recap of what exactly I am doing and why at the bottom of this post.
Part 1: C
Part 2: 1B
Part 3: 2B
Part 4: 3B
Part 5: SS
Part 6: LF
Two more to pop out and very little to do at work means that we’re at least going to get to look at center fielders today.
All center fielders who are qualified batters, meaning 3.1 at-bats per team game are going to be included in this analysis. If you are a team who has a platoon, you are likely out of luck and will have to do the math yourself as you won’t find your players on this list. If there is a CF who is playing another position and the game recognizes him as a left fielder, that will also skew this a bit but you can still use RC/27 to do your own math.
Averages for the center field position in the BBA:
Just as a few other positions we have detailed, there is a clear top center fielder in the league today and of course, he plays in the Heartland where most good players play.
The Best: Theo Bourges(Louisville)
Bourges has been more than twice as valuable as any other center fielder in the league this season accounting for nearly 248 more runs created than the average centerfielder. That absurd number of 248 net runs created is the highest of any position group we have discussed clearly showing that Theo Bourges has been the most valuable player in the BBA this season based on what you could replace him with. His 12.4 RC/27 is nearly double the average output at the plate from a center fielder, and his +12.3 ZR trails only Miguel Cortez in Portland in which Bourges is listed as being about 4 times as valuable.
For those who have been searching for a hot take, here it is. Theo Bourges is a more valuable player this season than Thum in Yellow Springs or Kwakou in Louisville. I will be voting for Theo Bourges as the Sawyer Silk award winner if the season finishes at this pace.
The Worst:
Yellow Springs Abdelijilill Sediki checks in as the worst this season with a combined 92 fewer runs created than the average center fielder, or 340 less than the team of Bourges would create. Sediki has struggled at the plate with 35 fewer runs created but been even worse in the field with a lineup ZR of 57.6, good for the worst fielding this season by any center fielder.
Interestingly enough, for all the love that Todd Rice was getting this season, he is a bottom 10 centerfielder just based on his defense alone, a bad enough figure that his 8.1 RC/27 couldn’t save him.
Anyhow, the link for the spreadsheet to see the report is below, feel free to take a look and I will be adding new positions each day this week as we attempt to analyze offense vs defense from this point of view. I hope everyone enjoys this, and if not, then tough shit I guess because I am going to be doing it for the next 7 days.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=sharing
For those wondering, I used 7 games for the average amount of games it takes a good hitter to get 27 outs. 162 divided by7 games is roughly 23 games per season. I took the runs created per 27 outs and multiplied by 23 to get the average season runs created.
When looking at offensive stats for players, the greenest of fans look at batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. These stats are typically used because that is what people are used to seeing when watching ESPN or looking at the box scores in the newspaper. However, as we know these are far from even being important and most are reliant on other members of your team to accomplish. For instance, you can’t have a ton of RBI if your teammates aren’t getting on base, likewise, you can’t score 100 runs if your teammates can’t hit you around.
In comes the stats of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and for pitchers FIP. I am going to dive a bit further after doing some reading on one stat that caught my eye and specifically made me question a few things.
That stat is Runs Created. My first thought was simply what the hell is that? Ron did a good job of explaining it on slack the other day to the group who didn’t know (which was basically just me), as there were some debates over the “who is more valuable” type guys which I appreciate as much as anyone.
So just what is a run created?
Basically it looks at the following linear weights (relative to outs)
It takes all of these and basically accounts for how many runs did that player truly produce during the season with no other factors attributing to it such as teammates' performance. It is a pretty accurate measure, as if you take your entire team’s RC, it typically hits the number within 5% of your runs scored during the season.
So now here is where it gets a bit interesting and what had me thinking.
Obviously a great defensive glove in the league is a coveted thing for many people, but at what point does the defensive player actually hurt that team based on his batting ability? The same goes for offense, how well does an offensive bat have to be in order to deal with poor defense? If a player has as a -10 ZR but is generating 45 more runs that season than the average at that position, then that is a player who obviously is very valuable despite his glove.
This feature is going to take a look day by day at each position showcasing who truly has been the top player at each position, all the way down to the worst player for that position. In order to qualify as a position player, you must be a qualified batter, meaning 3.1 at-bats per game. The only exception to this is going to be the catcher position because of obvious reasons. For the catcher position, I will grab anybody who has at least 200 at-bats this season.
For those who have played multiple positions, it is going to be the cumulative ZR, and they will be grouped by their natural position (whatever they are set at in the game).
