Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis
Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 5:15 pm
Alaric Wullenweber has a shot at striking out 300 batters, a feat done only twelve times in the modern-era and not achieved since Miguel Datiz K’d 303 for New Orleans back in 2027. San Antonio’s Aki Kondo once led his league in K/9 for four-consecutive seasons and is still topping a 9.0 per nine in his ninth big league season. Arthur Dempster whiffed 17 batters last year in a September start against Jacksonville, the tied for the second-highest single game total in the modern era.
The Brewster has its fair share of strikeout artists, but who’s dominating batters at the classic swing-and-miss? Unfortunately, the metric Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) is not publically available and I was disappointed it was not included in OOTP21, but thanks to Ron sharing game log data, I was able to pull out the numbers.
Here are the Top 30 SwStr% for 2042 thru August 11th for starting pitchers:
Notes:
On the flip-side, here are the ten lowest swinging strike rate among starters in 2042:
Notes:
For shits and giggles, here's the top whiffers amongst relievers in 2042:
The Brewster has its fair share of strikeout artists, but who’s dominating batters at the classic swing-and-miss? Unfortunately, the metric Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) is not publically available and I was disappointed it was not included in OOTP21, but thanks to Ron sharing game log data, I was able to pull out the numbers.
Here are the Top 30 SwStr% for 2042 thru August 11th for starting pitchers:
NAME | TEAM | SwStr% | K/9 | STUFF | MOVEMENT | CONTROL | VELO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jefferson Pierce | CLG | 12.7% | 11.0 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 100+ |
Chandler Hall | EDM | 12.7% | 10.1 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 97-99 |
Alaric Wullenweber | HAW | 12.5% | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 98-100 |
Keijo Reini | CHA | 12.3% | 11.0 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 96-98 |
Aki Kondo | SA | 11.8% | 9.4 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 99-101 |
Eru Likiliki | NAS | 11.5% | 9.8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 98-101 |
Ernesto Ramos | YS | 11.4% | 9.6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 96-98 |
Jim Armstrong | NO | 11.4% | 10.6 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 99-101 |
Adergazoz Ouakili | CHA | 11.4% | 10.4 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 96-98 |
In-sung Yi | OMA | 11.3% | 11.9 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 96-98 |
Jubal Troop | EDM | 11.2% | 9.2 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 99-101 |
Alvin Chartrand | LV | 11.1% | 8.3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 98-100 |
Jonathan Merritt | MAD | 11.1% | 10.7 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 93-95 |
Héctor Márquez | SEA | 11.1% | 9.8 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 94-96 |
José Martínez | VAL | 11.0% | 8.9 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 97-99 |
Ragnar Lothbrok | TWC | 11.0% | 9.8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 99-101 |
Carlos Valle | YS | 11.0% | 8.8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 95-97 |
Danya Tchekanov | LB | 11.0% | 9.7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 94-96 |
Ricardo Rivera | SA | 10.9% | 8.6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 98-100 |
Manuel Andrés | CAL | 10.9% | 10.4 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 99-101 |
Carlos Pineda | YS | 10.9% | 9.9 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 98-101 |
Jorge García | VAL | 10.8% | 9.3 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 97-99 |
Charlie Iron-Knife | PHX | 10.8% | 9.3 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 89-91 |
José Olivas | SA | 10.8% | 9.4 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 97-99 |
Luis Rojas | CC | 10.7% | 9.0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 99-101 |
Arthur Dempster | RCK | 10.7% | 9.2 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 98-100 |
Thiongo Amir | ATC | 10.5% | 7.6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 98-100 |
Don Smith | PHX | 10.5% | 9.7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 93-95 |
Ken Walter | SEA | 10.5% | 9.4 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 96-98 |
Amayas Moelling | CHI | 10.5% | 7.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 99-101 |
- Pierce is the hardest throwing starting pitcher in the big leagues and uses a combination of 11 STUFF, 11 Fastball and 100+ velo, along with three plus-plus off-speed pitches to rack up the swing-and-misses.
- Likiliki so-so rated by scouts and doesn't throw a fastball, but his 11 Slider coming in hard and from a sidearm angle, along with a good splitter and forkball, keeps hitters off-balance.
- Chartrand's K-rate isn't elite (but still very good), scouts give him above-average grades and his best pitches are "only" a 8-rated Fastball and Splitter, so why the twelfth-best SwStr%? Well, he throws gas so that's going to always help, but I think it's due to being one of the few pitchers in the Brewster who own a six-pitch repertoire that likely has batters guessing at every pitch.
- Iron-Knive's strong whiff-rate can only be attributed to one obvious thing: a devastating 12 Knuckleball. Although he missed Top 30 status, fellow knuckleballer Abe Colbert Jr. has a very strong 10.2 SwStr%, along with a K/9 of 10.0.
- The Cougars have two of the top nine pitchers excelling in swing-and-misses, a great sign for a newer ball club looking for an identity and establish a strong pitching staff.
On the flip-side, here are the ten lowest swinging strike rate among starters in 2042:
NAME | TEAM | SwStr% | K/9 | STUFF | MOVEMENT | CONTROL | VELO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
José Rivera | DM | 6.7% | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 95-97 |
Sean Gardner | CHA | 6.8% | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 94-96 |
Abel van Gastel | JAX | 6.9% | 4.4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 98-100 |
José Montoya | WIC | 6.9% | 3.7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 95-97 |
Quintiliano Rodeia | CLG | 7.0% | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 95-97 |
Nick Pearce | CAL | 7.2% | 5.0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 94-96 |
Pedro Rocha | MEX | 7.2% | 5.1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 97-99 |
Patrick Patchett | LB | 7.3% | 5.7 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 94-96 |
Robin Cooper | BOI | 7.4% | 4.0 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 94-96 |
Augusto Sánchez | LOU | 7.4% | 5.8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 90-92 |
- van Gastel's Stuff isn't terrible, he can run it up in triple digits, and has an elite Fastball (9) and Slider (10) with a fully developed third pitch (6 Changeup)...so what gives? Well, his K/9 in 2030 for Des Moines was a good 7.9 and in just under 200 minor league innings in 2041-2042, he struck out an average of 9.4 per nine, so unless there's an underlying injury or mechanics issue, I expect a regression back to passable metrics next year.
- Get this: Sanchez led the league in K/9 with 11.2 just two years ago! A ruptured UCL during the playoffs that year has all the signs of a career-altering injury, or at the very least, Sanchez is a long ways away from returning back to his previous form.
For shits and giggles, here's the top whiffers amongst relievers in 2042:
NAME | TEAM | SwStr% |
---|---|---|
Jarred Perkins | SEA | 14.9% |
Lorenzo de' Medici | NAS | 14.8% |
Cornell Sánchez | PHX | 14.2% |
Lúcio Gómez | ATC | 13.5% |
Shawn Huber | LV | 12.8% |
Juan Pinto | LOU | 12.8% |
Wan-ling Lou | CAL | 12.6% |
Jorge Huerta | EDM | 12.6% |
Norm McConnell | HAW | 12.5% |
Felipe López | HAW | 12.5% |
Júlio Cuevas | PHX | 12.4% |
Marco Vitalle | CAL | 12.4% |
Wen Huang | TWC | 12.3% |
John Wilson | CC | 12.2% |
Dave Walsh | BOI | 12.2% |
Gilberto Sosa | CHI | 12.2% |
Matthew Mangual | PHX | 12.1% |
Sergio Pérez | YS | 12.1% |
Roberto Ramírez | YS | 12.0% |
Manuel Cruz | NO | 11.9% |
Miguel Angel Garza | SEA | 11.8% |
Pedro Tañón | DM | 11.8% |
Eric Holliday | SA | 11.7% |
Vincente Venalde | POR | 11.7% |
Andresa Pires | LOU | 11.6% |