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Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 5:15 pm
by jleddy
Alaric Wullenweber has a shot at striking out 300 batters, a feat done only twelve times in the modern-era and not achieved since Miguel Datiz K’d 303 for New Orleans back in 2027. San Antonio’s Aki Kondo once led his league in K/9 for four-consecutive seasons and is still topping a 9.0 per nine in his ninth big league season. Arthur Dempster whiffed 17 batters last year in a September start against Jacksonville, the tied for the second-highest single game total in the modern era.

The Brewster has its fair share of strikeout artists, but who’s dominating batters at the classic swing-and-miss? Unfortunately, the metric Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) is not publically available and I was disappointed it was not included in OOTP21, but thanks to Ron sharing game log data, I was able to pull out the numbers.

Here are the Top 30 SwStr% for 2042 thru August 11th for starting pitchers:

NAMETEAMSwStr%K/9STUFFMOVEMENTCONTROLVELO
Jefferson PierceCLG12.7%11.01166100+
Chandler HallEDM12.7%10.1107997-99
Alaric WullenweberHAW12.5%11.7117998-100
Keijo ReiniCHA12.3%11.0113696-98
Aki KondoSA11.8%9.4115899-101
Eru LikilikiNAS11.5%9.885798-101
Ernesto RamosYS11.4%9.6106796-98
Jim ArmstrongNO11.4%10.6117599-101
Adergazoz OuakiliCHA11.4%10.4114696-98
In-sung YiOMA11.3%11.9114696-98
Jubal TroopEDM11.2%9.2105699-101
Alvin ChartrandLV11.1%8.377598-100
Jonathan MerrittMAD11.1%10.792693-95
Héctor MárquezSEA11.1%9.896694-96
José MartínezVAL11.0%8.995797-99
Ragnar LothbrokTWC11.0%9.875699-101
Carlos ValleYS11.0%8.887895-97
Danya TchekanovLB11.0% 9.798994-96
Ricardo RiveraSA10.9%8.6910798-100
Manuel AndrésCAL10.9%10.4115599-101
Carlos Pineda YS10.9%9.995898-101
Jorge GarcíaVAL10.8%9.394797-99
Charlie Iron-KnifePHX10.8%9.3106389-91
José OlivasSA10.8%9.4104497-99
Luis RojasCC10.7% 9.0107799-101
Arthur DempsterRCK10.7%9.2107698-100
Thiongo Amir ATC10.5%7.675898-100
Don SmithPHX10.5%9.798893-95
Ken WalterSEA10.5%9.497796-98
Amayas MoellingCHI10.5%7.788899-101
Notes:
  • Pierce is the hardest throwing starting pitcher in the big leagues and uses a combination of 11 STUFF, 11 Fastball and 100+ velo, along with three plus-plus off-speed pitches to rack up the swing-and-misses.
  • Likiliki so-so rated by scouts and doesn't throw a fastball, but his 11 Slider coming in hard and from a sidearm angle, along with a good splitter and forkball, keeps hitters off-balance.
  • Chartrand's K-rate isn't elite (but still very good), scouts give him above-average grades and his best pitches are "only" a 8-rated Fastball and Splitter, so why the twelfth-best SwStr%? Well, he throws gas so that's going to always help, but I think it's due to being one of the few pitchers in the Brewster who own a six-pitch repertoire that likely has batters guessing at every pitch.
  • Iron-Knive's strong whiff-rate can only be attributed to one obvious thing: a devastating 12 Knuckleball. Although he missed Top 30 status, fellow knuckleballer Abe Colbert Jr. has a very strong 10.2 SwStr%, along with a K/9 of 10.0.
  • The Cougars have two of the top nine pitchers excelling in swing-and-misses, a great sign for a newer ball club looking for an identity and establish a strong pitching staff.

On the flip-side, here are the ten lowest swinging strike rate among starters in 2042:

NAMETEAMSwStr%K/9STUFFMOVEMENTCONTROLVELO
José RiveraDM6.7%4.955695-97
Sean GardnerCHA6.8%5.556594-96
Abel van GastelJAX6.9%4.473598-100
José MontoyaWIC6.9%3.766695-97
Quintiliano RodeiaCLG7.0%4.056895-97
Nick PearceCAL7.2%5.047594-96
Pedro RochaMEX7.2%5.177797-99
Patrick PatchettLB7.3%5.747894-96
Robin CooperBOI7.4%4.058494-96
Augusto SánchezLOU7.4%5.887590-92
Notes:
  • van Gastel's Stuff isn't terrible, he can run it up in triple digits, and has an elite Fastball (9) and Slider (10) with a fully developed third pitch (6 Changeup)...so what gives? Well, his K/9 in 2030 for Des Moines was a good 7.9 and in just under 200 minor league innings in 2041-2042, he struck out an average of 9.4 per nine, so unless there's an underlying injury or mechanics issue, I expect a regression back to passable metrics next year.
  • Get this: Sanchez led the league in K/9 with 11.2 just two years ago! A ruptured UCL during the playoffs that year has all the signs of a career-altering injury, or at the very least, Sanchez is a long ways away from returning back to his previous form.

For shits and giggles, here's the top whiffers amongst relievers in 2042:

NAMETEAMSwStr%
Jarred Perkins SEA 14.9%
Lorenzo de' MediciNAS 14.8%
Cornell SánchezPHX 14.2%
Lúcio GómezATC 13.5%
Shawn HuberLV 12.8%
Juan PintoLOU 12.8%
Wan-ling LouCAL 12.6%
Jorge HuertaEDM 12.6%
Norm McConnellHAW 12.5%
Felipe LópezHAW 12.5%
Júlio CuevasPHX 12.4%
Marco VitalleCAL 12.4%
Wen HuangTWC 12.3%
John WilsonCC 12.2%
Dave WalshBOI 12.2%
Gilberto SosaCHI 12.2%
Matthew MangualPHX 12.1%
Sergio PérezYS 12.1%
Roberto RamírezYS 12.0%
Manuel CruzNO11.9%
Miguel Angel GarzaSEA 11.8%
Pedro TañónDM 11.8%
Eric HollidaySA 11.7%
Vincente VenaldePOR 11.7%
Andresa PiresLOU 11.6%

Re: Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 5:35 pm
by Spiccoli
Well done!!

Mark Wareham does his best to pad these guys stats... lol.

Re: Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 5:54 pm
by RonCo
Nice. I find it comforting that there appears to be some correlation to the stuff/SwStr%.

Re: Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis

Posted: Thu May 07, 2020 6:20 pm
by HoosierVic
Sweet. Unlike batters facing Jefferson Pierce, you made solid contact and jacked this piece outta the park. Bravo, Joe!

Re: Take a Whiff: 2042 Swing-and-Miss Analysis

Posted: Fri May 08, 2020 3:21 pm
by CTBrewCrew
Go Merritt!! My little Rule-5 guy :)