2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Beat articles, power rankings, statistical analysis, etc. goes here.
jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Mon May 04, 2020 3:50 pm

A few notes about what you'll see below:
  • Ratings (OVERALL/POTENTIAL) and age are as of July 21, 2042
  • 2042 WAR figures are projected out for the rest of the year
  • Salary figures in italics are projected arbitration totals
  • Players selected in the 2042 First Year Draft were not considered for the list due to lack of professional experience
Part I: Honorable Mention
Part II: #50-#41
Part III: #54-#21
BBA Today #23: “Trade Value Galore!”

Without further ado, here’s the top twenty for 2042:

- - - - - - - - - -

#20 - Steven Collins III, Edmonton, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 11

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040236.5$6,875,000
2041246.8$10,531,250
2039255.5$12,800,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $25,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $12,800,000


The Edmonton front office wisely extended Collins, one of the most popular players in the Brewster, to a three-year extension at the bargain of $12.8M per season. He’s been a monster his entire Jackrabbits career and while he’s traded in a few steals for more home runs in the last two years, Collins has the profile and work ethic to have a long, thriving career late into his 30s. But before we get there, fans of the blue and gold will enjoy watching Collins for at least two more seasons as a tremendous asset.


#19 - Liann-wei Mao, Calgary, 1B 80/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 23

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040234.5$500,000
2041246.1$500,000
2042258.0$5,350,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $21,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,600,000


Mao’s gone from #30 to #23 and now in the top 20 the past three seasons, culminating in this year’s assault on the record books. “Chairman Mao” is on pace to set the all-time Brewster single-seasons records for home runs and runs batted in. Last year, we said “pencil-in a slash line of .310/.380/.610.” Well, bust out your erasers because he’s currently hitting an insane .322/.394/.719. The likely result will be a huge payday and Calgary will have to make some decisions with the rest of their roster in the next 24 months to make it work with their salary cap.


#18 - Don Smith, Phoenix, SP 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 32

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040202.1$500,000
2041215.6$500,000
2042224.5$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $26,300,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,766,667


#17 - Héctor Márquez, Seattle, SP 65/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 9

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040255.6$500,000
2041267.3$6,8750,000
2042274.7$8,800,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $24,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $12,300,000


Poor Don Smith…two years in a row he has to share a capsule, first with James Browning comparing the way franchises in different points of their plan handle promoting young pitchers, and now with Márquez. Seattle was wise to buy-out Márquez’ final two seasons of arbitration and tack on a third after inking the crafty veteran to a three-year, $33.4M extension. At the time, Márquez was a former Frick Nebraska winner stringing together top-notch production and, most importantly for this exercise, a workhorse with off-the-charts make-up. Soon Phoenix will be faced with a similar situation, as Smith has three years left of team control and starts to see his salary rise in 2043. Like Márquez, the fellow southpaw has all the talent in the world and is starting to come into his own. However, he doesn't have leadership personality like Márquez, nor is he a dependable source of innings. The latter is what likely led to his price tag in a trade with Des Moines to be lower than many expected, if not also the main reason why the Kernels were open to moving him in the first place. When he’s healthy and on, Smith is a game changer. But his value will remain suspect with his injury history, and certainly as he nears closer to the end of his rookie deal.


#16 - Ronnie Hubbard, Louisville, CF 60/60
PREVIOUS RANK: 19

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040214.5$500,000
2041225.9$500,000
2042236.0$7,000,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $14,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,000,000


Here’s a scary thought: at #16, Hubbard is the lowest-ranked member of the Louisville outfield. Locked up to a three-year under-market extension back in April 2041, Hubbard has 40/40 potential every year to go along with outstanding defense in center. With make-up off the charts, Hubbard continues to out-perform the ceiling set by the scouts and remains one of the more valuable and fun players to follow in the Brewster.


#15 - Jefferson Pierce, Calgary, SP 65/65
PREVIOUS RANK: 25

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040235.7$2,500,000
2041244.5$3,200,000
2042256.8$7,900,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $68,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $13,600,000


Pierce is dominating in the first season of a newly minted six-year extension. “Black Lightning” has appeared in the top 25 all four years of this annual feature, proof he’s as consistent and valuable as they come. Relying on his 100+ fastball and plus-secondary off-speed pitches, Pierce is one of the top strikeout artists in the league. With an AAV under $14M, the 6’9” righty actually might be more valuable on the Pioneers than in the open market.


#14 - Larry Stinson, San Antonio, 1B 65/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
204019--minor leagues
204120--minor leagues
2042217.5$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,600,000


#13 - Carlomaria Donadoni, Edmonton, 1B/3B 70/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 45

YEARAGEWARSALARY
204019--minor leagues
204120--minor leagues
2042217.2$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $18,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $3,680,000


Frank Thomas III and Bo Jordan. Sid the Kid and Ovi. Federer, Djokovic and Nadal. Magic and Bird. So often are all-time greats forever linked with a fellow legendary contemporary. This very well may be the case for Stinson and Donadani. Both are 21-year-old first basemen, both were 2038 first rounders, both debuted in 2042, both play in the Frontier Division. And both can flat out mash. Stinson projects to be an average defensive first baseman at best, with chances he moves to DH down the road, while Donadani is a good enough fielder that he can fill-in at third in a pinch. This razor-thin difference is what puts Donadani just one spot ahead between two of the most valuable assets in the entire league.


#12 - Ángel González, Vancouver, CF 70/70
PREVIOUS RANK: 7

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040204.3$500,000
2041218.5$500,000
2042224.8$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $30,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,166,667


González went from the runner-up in the Gillstrom to winner of the Silk Award as a baby-faced 21-year-old. González looks like he’ll have a few 40/40 seasons on the back of his baseball card over the next decade to go with a .900 OPS. That said, his 8.5 WAR season is currently sandwiched between two sub-5.0 WAR seasons, so did he just play above his head or is he strictly just a very, very good player? With defensive metrics starting to slip and his AAV reaching eight figures, the Salvadoran centerfielder could see his value vary in the next few years, but make no question, this kid is awesome.


#11 - Ricardo Rivera, San Antonio, SP 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 20

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040204.9$500,000
2041210.8$500,000
2042229.6$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $22,600,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,533,333


Rivera suffered a season-ending partially torn labrum last May, a tragic event but one that didn’t catch anyone by surprise. The flame-throwing righty has bounced back in a big time, as his projected 9.6 WAR can attest to, and he’s currently the man trying to stop Dan Cannon’s attempt to win a fourth-straight Nebraska. San Antonio bought out the remaining three years of arbitration and now Rivera starts making some coin. The only thing holding Rivera back from being a top 10 value, if not the best pitcher in the league, is his fragile arm.


#10 - Aaron Haney, Valencia, CF/LF 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 6

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040217.3$500,000
2041227.4$500,000
2042235.0$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $30,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,166,667


While he may not be the next Dennis French as suggested in the 2040 list, Haney has carved out his own notoriety as a Silk Award winner at the age of 21. Unfortunately, this year he’s hit a snag at the plate, but that’s only in the scope of the incredible numbers he put up in his first two seasons. With three years left of arbitration, it’ll be interesting to see what Valencia does, as the Stars are facing their first losing record in five years while also have one of the lower-rated farm systems in the Brewster. Do they continue to let his arbitration run out, do they lock him up long-term soon, or do they dare trade away Haney for a king’s ransom?


#9 - Dennis French, Boise, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 5

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040238.2$7,000,000
2041248.1$10,000,000
2042257.7$11,187,500
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2048
REMAINING CONTRACT: $107,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $17,833,333


Sure, he just signed a nine-figure extension earlier this year but at a well-below market value of $17.8M per season, there are 31 other teams who would gladly take on that contract or move the earth to make it fit into their budget. A move from centerfield to right is a slight knock against his value, but he’s still a good defender who is a lock to earn over 7 WAR per season for the remainder of his contract.


#8 - Wilson Andrade, Charm City, SS 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: NR

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040191.3$500,000
2041203.0$500,000
2042218.2$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2046
REMAINING CONTRACT: $25,800,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,450,000


Andrade earns the honor of being this year’s highest-ranked first-timer. Welcome, Wilson! The 6’3”, five-tool shortstop flirted with .400 for the first half of this season and was named to his first All-Star team. A plus-plus defender with 30 dinger pop looks every bit the star many expected when he was the first-overall selection in the oft-discussed 2038 “Super” Draft. Sky is the limit with Andrade and provides Charm City with a rare commodity to continue to build around.


#7 - Danya Tchekanov, Long Beach, SP 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK:1

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040235.6$500,000
2041248.5$500,000
2042254.1$6,900,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $39,900,000
REMAINING AAV: $13,300,000


Tchekanov's was named the league’s top value last year en route to his first Nebraska Award. Wisely, the Long Beach front office bought out the remaining two years of his arbitration in June and added an additional year in a great three-year extension. Sure, he’s fallen from the top spot down to #7, but the difference between the two is as thin as his opponents’ batting average. Durable, still just 25 and owning the best four-pitch repertoire in the league, “Satan’s Whelp” is one hell of an elite talent and valuable asset for the Surfers.


#6 - Félix Román, Boise, CF 75/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 10

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040204.6$500,000
2041218.0$500,000
2042228.4$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $29,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $9,900,000


The true five-tool superstar has officially arrived and has ascended to the point that people are wondering if he’ll out-WAR teammate Dennis French over the next six seasons. A move to centerfield has only helped the value of the 40/40 threat and Boise will likely look to lock up their 1A Face of the Franchise in a few years to a similar extension that French signed earlier this season.


#5 - Théo Bourges , Louisville, LF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 34

YEARAGEWARSALARY
204019--minor leagues
2041205.8$500,000
2042219.6$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $37,200,000
REMAINING AAV: $7,440,000


Bourges has seen his arbitration estimates more than double since last year’s edition thanks to his incredible Frick League Gillstrom Award-winning season and amazing follow-up this year. At press time, the Frenchman was second in OPS and WAR in the Frick for the league’s best team. Unfortunately for the rest of the teams in the Brewster, Bourges will be an MVP candidate for the next decade as one of the best valued players around.


#4 - Semei Kwakou, Louisville, RF 75/75
PREVIOUS RANK: 2

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040205.9$500,000
2041215.6$500,000
2042228.9$8,500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $17,000,000
REMAINING AAV: $8,500,000


It’s not an indictment that Kwakou has fallen from the top spot in 2040 to #2 to now #4, it’s merely a product of his AAV rising thru arbitration and his free agency approaching. Making under $9M per year while flirting with 9 WAR is ridiculous and Louisville is likely laughing the loudest. A candidate for a Triple Crown every year, the Nigerian superstar remains on the Brewster’s Mount Rushmore of value.


#3 - Juan Rivera, Atlantic City, RF 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 4

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040215.4$500,000
2041229.7$500,000
2042238.6$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2045
REMAINING CONTRACT: $30,500,000
REMAINING AAV: $10,166,667


Your 2041 Johnson League Silk Award winner, ladies and gentlemen. So what’s next for the uber-talented lefty outfielder? Likely a back-to-back MVP thanks to a 60+ HR pace and 1.100+ OPS. The premier power hitter in the game today, Atlantic City would be best served to not gamble on their future and extend Rivera sooner than later.


#2 - Alaric Wullenweber, Hawaii, SP 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 8

YEARAGEWARSALARY
204020--minor leagues
2041217.1$500,000
2042226.6$500,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGH: 2047
REMAINING CONTRACT: $34,700,000
REMAINING AAV: $6,940,000


Wullenweber’s AAV has jumped from $3.3M to $6.9M thanks to what looks like a second-straight 6+ WAR season. We’re guessing the Hawaii front office is okay with that. The top-ranked pitching value in the game, the German power pitcher has lived up to his previous status as the top prospect in baseball. With Wullenweber under team control for five more seasons, Hawaii has their sights set on a run of Pacific Division titles over the same time period.


#1 - Dong-po Thum, Yellow Springs, 3B 80/80
PREVIOUS RANK: 3

YEARAGEWARSALARY
2040227.0$500,000
2041237.2$500,000
2042249.7$8,125,000
TEAM CONTROL THROUGHH: 2044
REMAINING CONTRACT: $22,400,000
REMAINING AAV: $11,200,000


.330 hitter. Check. .400 on-base skills. Check. 70 steals ability. Check. Zimmer-level defense at two positons. Check. Under 25 years old. Check. Great make-up and fan favorite. Check. Yes, he’s set to make over $11M next year. Yes, the Nine potentially only have two more years of Thum’s service. But when you flirt with 10 WAR, a figure not reached by a hitter since Lucas McNeill in 2033, you realize that there’s not much Thum can’t do. And what we know he can do is produce as the league’s top trade value asset.


- - - - - - - - - -


And there you have it, the conclusion of the fourth annual BBA Trade Value Series! Who was left out or who should be shown the door? Who needs some helium to rise higher or who needs to be knocked down a rung or two?

Additionally, here's a few charts breaking down the Top 50:

TEAMPLAYERS IN TOP 50
Louisville 6
Edmonton 5
Rockville 4
San Antonio 3
Yellow Springs 3
Boise 2
Brooklyn 2
Calgary 2
California 2
Charm City 2
Chicago 2
Montreal 2
New Orleans 2
Valencia 2
Atlantic City 1
Hawaii 1
Las Vegas 1
Long Beach 1
Madison 1
Nashville 1
Seattle 1
Twin Cities 1
San Fernando 1
Vancouver 1
Phoenix 1
Des Moines 0
Charlotte 0
Portland 0
Wichita 0
Jacksonville 0
Mexico City 0
Omaha 0
  • Louisville holds the top spot for a second year in a row.
  • It's interesting that Des Moines and Wichita both traded a player within the Top 50 but the return didn't net back the same value, at least in a one-for-one aspect.
  • In three years, Jacksonville has gone from four mentions to now zero.

DIVISIONPLAYERS IN TOP 50
Frontier14
Heartland14
Atlantic13
Pacific9
  • Frontier was thiiiiiis close to bragging rights until Alex Ramírez was shipped to the Pacific.
  • It's not by coincidence that the weaker Pacific Division features several fewer "highly valued" players than the other three divisions.

POSITIONPLAYERS IN TOP 50
SP 14
RF 6
LF 6
3B 5
CF 4
1B 4
2B 4
C 4
SS 3
DH 0
RP 0
  • There was quite a shift in positional concentration from last year, with starting pitchers and centerfielders dropping by five and four players, respectively. Catchers jumped from one to four.
  • Surprisingly shortstop, one of the more coveted positions to fill with marquee talent, ranks low. Unsurprisingly, the draft classes for shortstops have been weak in recent seasons, likely the biggest factor in this trend.


For those interested, you can see the Top 50 spreadsheet (plus additional players considered) below:
2042 BBA Trade Value spreadsheet.xlsx
(187.68 KiB) Downloaded 42 times
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

User avatar
lordtoffee
BBA GM
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:23 am
Has thanked: 34 times
Been thanked: 223 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by lordtoffee » Mon May 04, 2020 4:35 pm

Very interesting feature Joe. i'm of the view that the Atlantic is going to come down to whomever makes the right deal at the deadline. The Don Smith deal might not be the only big one to go down.
Chief Baseball Officer- Brooklyn Robins

The Rebuilding Will Continue Until the Robins improve.

bschr682
Ex-GM
Posts: 8038
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:24 am
Has thanked: 306 times
Been thanked: 383 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by bschr682 » Mon May 04, 2020 4:50 pm

With the differences between those top guys being so razor thin, i would have expected the salary paid to have more of an impact. I love Thum but Wullenweber seems more valuable to me especially with pitching being thin in general...
GM Vancouver Mounties

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Mon May 04, 2020 5:22 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 4:50 pm
With the differences between those top guys being so razor thin, i would have expected the salary paid to have more of an impact. I love Thum but Wullenweber seems more valuable to me especially with pitching being thin in general...
Absolutely. Wouldn't have a problem at all with Wullenweber #1 and Thum #2, or even a few more spots down. If you hear towards the end of the podcast, I do hint at putting Thum the top spot so it works against Yellow Springs' favor in arbitration hearings. ;)
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

User avatar
HoosierVic
Ex-GM
Posts: 3106
Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:16 pm
Has thanked: 472 times
Been thanked: 1020 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by HoosierVic » Mon May 04, 2020 5:29 pm

Great stuff Joe, even though you missed Lorenzen again ...

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by jleddy » Mon May 04, 2020 5:35 pm

HoosierVic wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 5:29 pm
Great stuff Joe, even though you missed Lorenzen again ...
You know, banging these out until 2 AM -- and mind you I've done four of these editions in the same calendar year that an entire team of paid writers and editors over at Fangraphs have done just one of theirs -- does leave a lot of room for human error.

Huge oversight and it will likely happen again.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

User avatar
shoeless.db
BBA GM
Posts: 2317
Joined: Wed May 29, 2019 10:25 pm
Has thanked: 1823 times
Been thanked: 1090 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by shoeless.db » Mon May 04, 2020 6:31 pm

It’s going to be sweet revenge when the Pacific wins the Landis this season.

Great stuff again, Joe.
Sacramento Mad Popes (unretired)
-- Vic Caleca Team News Award Winner 2052
-- BBA Champion 2053
-- Pacific Champs 2040, 2042, 2043, 2047, 2048, 2049, 2051, 2053, 2054
Life is a bit more beautiful when time is measured by the half inning rather than the half hour.

bschr682
Ex-GM
Posts: 8038
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:24 am
Has thanked: 306 times
Been thanked: 383 times

Re: 2042 BBA Trade Value Series: #20-#1

Post by bschr682 » Mon May 04, 2020 7:28 pm

shoeless.db wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 6:31 pm
It’s going to be sweet revenge when the Pacific wins the Landis this season.

Great stuff again, Joe.
I guess Hawaii has a punchers chance...
GM Vancouver Mounties

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “League Features”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests