Analysis of the First Round of the 2042 BBA Amateur Draft

[aaronweiner]

This is the first in a two-part series analyzing this year’s amateur draft. This part looks at just the first round and S1 picks. The second part will look at what I think are the best, worst, and the most interesting picks.

Disclaimer: As always, opinions and analysis are mine and mine alone and do not reflect any future, present, or past knowledge of anything at all. If my voice sounds a little weak in places, I’m wearing a mask like the rest of you. My Ouija board has been working overtime lately and has been the source of much of my insight. Do not use as a toenail clipper.



First Round Analysis:


1. SP Dave Lee (Charlotte): We’ve had some complaints that there haven’t been any top pitching prospects over the past couple years. Well, the wait is over. Lefty Lee has an interesting repertoire, with a circle change and a knuckle curve, the former of which might become very effective. While he isn’t highly developed for a 21 year old in the 2042 environment, Lee hits solid mid-90s with his sinker and could be a major leaguer today, but they’ll likely wait on him. Seemingly solid intangibles, durable, and potentially a superior starter, Lee could be the real deal.

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2. SP Itze Woertgen (Portland): Woertgen might be a more certain prospect than the player drafted ahead of him, Dave Lee. Why would I say that? Well, Woertgen isn’t more developed than Lee except in one very key aspect: he already has full command of his changeup. He’s got some work to do on his slider and fastball, but if he gets all of that he’ll be a #1 or 1A type starter for sure. Despite a smallish frame (6 feet, 160 pounds), Woertgen is considered a potential workhorse because of his outstanding mechanics and excellent conditioning. Like Lee, he’s 21 years old and could come on in a hurry.


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3. OF Pedro Bustamente (San Antonio): Don’t know what to do? Bustamente. Actually, Bustamente might have been exactly the right thing to do. The third straight college player drafted, Bustamente is considered the top pure power/contact player in the draft, and could be good for 40 2B and 40 HR a season. Bustamente rarely strikes out, can draw a walk – though not many – and comes nearly assembled, with some finer points to work out before his major league career begins. Not great defensively, but should be a mainstay in the lineup and could play some major league innings as soon as this season. Solid intangibles all around, should be a safe pick for the league’s unsafest franchise.

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4. OF/1B Pancho Costa (Twin Cities): Whether you like Costa better than Pedro Bustamente, the player picked right before him, comes down to how much you pray at the Church of Left-Handedness. And yea, verily, Costa’s defense is better than Bustamente, and Hallelujah! he's more developed and a much better baserunner than the guy who went #3. Reports are that he’s not as durable as the San Antonio pick, but enough sacramental snacks might help. Only big question is where Costa will play, since all the positions he could play: 1B, DH, LF and RF are currently occupied with some solid players. They might let him get a little seasoning in, but they’re not going to wait for confirmation or his bar mitzvah – he’s pretty much ready to go. So expect him to replace someone soon.

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5. SP Chris Sackett (Witchita): Sackett reminds me a lot of the Des Moines picks of old. We don’t have to wonder whether this starting pitcher is going to become well rated enough to pitch in the majors, as he has most of his abilities done at age 20. We don’t have to wonder whether he’ll throw hard: his fastball hits 100 on the gun. But Sackett is a reach to be sure, and while he dominated at the college level and should be effective in the majors, he’s very unrefined for a college pitcher. His stuff is no doubt largely based on his velocity. His intangibles are excellent, however, and a few skill improvements could make this guy very good. He’d be an outstanding reliever conversion. I’m sure they’re disappointed they have to take him at #5 because he’d have probably been available at #25, but if they wanted him badly enough there’s a real chance he’d have been gone by #45 when they pick again.

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6. OF Jose Romero (Atlantic City): Our first autopick. Romero is even readier than the ready guy we talked about already! Sensing a theme here? That’s because we’re still at 100% college player picks at this point. Romero might replace Millard Younger say – lemme see – now. Like if they could get him signed and on a plane and in Atlantic City he might be in the lineup tomorrow. At any rate he should have absolutely nothing to prove in the minors. Romero does have some holes: he strikes out too often, he has gaping holes against lefties and he’s just okay defensively (though better than a lot of recent draftees), and he’s slow on the basepaths. But there are just 42 players in the BBA who have his kind of contact/power/doubles ability and he should be up in a big hurry.

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7. OF/IF Erik Wignes (Brooklyn): Wignes isn’t currently a shortstop, but there’s a real chance that the Robins might try him there. And second base. And third base. And maybe first. Wignes has amazing defensive tools in the infield, and while he probably wouldn’t be that valuable at first base, there’s every reason to believe that Brooklyn just drafted their starting shortstop in two or three years. If he makes it at shortstop this is a fantastic pick, a total steal pick. If he makes it at first base I’ve seen worse: Wignes should hit consistently, draw walks and not strike out, and they’d just have to make up the powerhitting somewhere else in the lineup. Solid frame, good intangibles, good baserunner.

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8. 1B Wilson Estrada (Omaha): Omaha goes chalk with Estrada, who absolutely terrorized college pitchers. Estrada isn’t huge at 6’3”, 180, but the scouts say he lacks an edge, which is odd because that’s not particularly round. Wonder what that means? Relatively well developed for a 21 year old, Estrada is a superior defensive player at first base and has a number of major league skills at this point, and I don’t think they’re going to have too many issues having him take over for Jimmy Starks or Edgardo Diaz if he’s ready soon. An extreme platoon player, Estrada will be as valuable as he is against righty pitching, and he could end up being very valuable in that role.

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9. OF/DH/RP Carlton Casson (Montreal): Continuing the run on developed, college players, Casson is a very intriguing prospect indeed. The first two-way prospect in the draft, Casson might be a better lefty reliever than an outfielder. However, Casson’s hitting skills are also superior to the players Montreal currently has at the position. It’s hard to say how they’ll use him, especially since two of the top five Montreal prospects are better fielding and hitting outfielders than Casson. My guess is that Casson will find his way into the bullpen full time at some point, but it’s food for thought.

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10. RP Bill Keil (Des Moines): Our second autopick, Keil was the only pitcher in the draft with top ratings from the scout team. You can see why: he has everything a pitcher could want but good health and a big arm. Keil was used as a starter in college but everyone would be unsurprised to see him as a closer in the majors. He’s also underdeveloped for someone who’s almost 22 years old. Keil does also play a little left field, but I suspect that would happen only as a bench player. Solid intangibles and considered intelligent, Keil should have a long career if he stays healthy and gets good coaching.

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11. 3B/1B Chris Mann (Madison): Madison drafts the Mann. No, seriously, he’s the only Mann in the draft (or Man. There are many Mannys.), so if you’re looking for a Mann now, you need to wait. I’m not sure this was the guy Aloe Blacc was singing about, but Mann continues the well-developed college pick portion of this draft. He could be one of the best contact/doubles guys in the BBA, which isn’t surprising from the same team, though not the same guy, that drafted Dusty Rhodes. His defense should be good enough to play third base, which currently isn’t a positional need for Madison but might be in two years. Mann will be ready sooner, which means that Ross Quicker might be on the way out. We’ll see.

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12. SP Melvin Simpson (San Antonio): Word is that Simpson is asking for triple his signing bonus to sign with San Antonio. No particular reason, we hear, just something about the potential for his arm to fall off. Jokes aside, Simpson was the top starting pitching prospect remaining, if the Outlaws had wanted someone more “durable,” they’d have had to have settled for someone like Takehide Gertrudes or Hiroshi Murayama, and those would have been legitimate steps down in talent. The first high school prospect picked in the draft, Simpson is going to need to get his changeup but otherwise has plenty of talent for someone his age. He also throws hard for a teenager and reportedly has an excellent work ethic. He’s a groundballer, too.

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13. RF Yo Miyamoto (Seattle): I have no idea if this is the same Yo Miyamoto as does the San Francisco Giants’ Video Coaching, but that’s the only one I found on the Internet. Seems like an interesting dude. This Miyamoto doesn’t seem to have that guy’s range, but he’s error-proof and has a good arm in the outfield. At the plate, Miyamoto might be one of those players who hits better against lefties but well against righties, which are the best type of righty hitters. Needs to work on his defense and his batting eye, but Miyamoto might be in the majors sooner than later as the starting right fielder.

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14. SP Antonio Gonzales (Phoenix): Gonzales is a lefty college starter who’s got a ways to go before he throws a major league inning. That said, he has some significant structural advantages to him that I like a lot. His stuff is already major league quality, and his movement is fully developed. If he can turn his changeup into a weapon and improve his control he’s likely to be a rotation fixture for a decade. He also holds runners especially well. Gonzales does have lousy intangibles and doesn’t work hard, but maybe the Talons can work on him a little bit. He should be a long-time pro.

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15. P Raul Alvarez (Long Beach): Another solid lefty, Alvarez is an interesting case. On the one hand, they could do nothing to him and Alvarez is likely to become one of the best relievers in the BBA. He has a massive arm which could get bigger even at 21 years old, and he’s developed enough you could toss him right into the major leagues and he’d be a bullpen stalwart. On the other hand, he throws hard enough and well enough that the Surfers could consider a starting pitcher conversion, and since he’s just 21 years old maybe he even regains the lost velocity. At any rate I’d take this guy and use him whatever way I could. If he wants a major league contract I don’t see the problem.

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16. RP Gilberto Cordero (Chicago): Cordero isn’t eligible for a starting pitcher conversion (not enough endurance) but he sure looks like a lockdown righty reliever. I have very little doubt that this college pitcher, who has fully developed offspeed stuff and a 98-MPH cutter, could be one of the best relievers in the game in virtually no time at all. Solid intangibles, durable rating, seems like a clear winner to me. If he wants a major league contract they should give him one.

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17. CF Bart McIntosh (Jacksonville): Another autopick. McIntosh isn’t probably the best pick for a rebuilding team, as the CF has a high floor but a low ceiling; he’s a nearly finished product. Solid at everything with a good batting eye, McIntosh has good range and good defensive tools. He’ll be much more valuable in center field than on the corners, so hopefully his defense improves. Fast with good intangibles, McIntosh should have a long major league career as a platoon outfielder. Whether that career is notable is hard to say. Exhibit A as to why it’s good to show up to the draft.

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18. CF Chuck Dickens (San Fernando): Dickens is the sort of player who can help revitalize a franchise if he can stay healthy. A good switch-hitting contact hitter with moderate skills in other places offensively, Dickens is an excellent defensive centerfielder with very good speed and skills on the basepaths. Because he’s so solid in center field, Dickens can be the cornerstone of an excellent defense if, of course, he can stay on the field for long periods of time. He’s never had a major injury, so keep your fingers crossed. Second cousin of Chick Duckens, famous voice talent and bird impression artist.

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19. CF Manny Garcia (Hawaii): Garcia is another player with serious holes offensively, but should be a solid defensive player for the Tropics. Garcia is likely to be an extreme platoon hitter and only used as a late-inning defensive player/pinch-hitter against lefties offensively, but he should be reasonably solid against righties. He still can’t hit the curve so well. Defensively, Garcia has good tools and a good idea of how to use them with room to improve. He’ll be ready in a hurry, and that’s good news for Hawaii.

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20. CF Chris Jenkins (Wichita): Last in a four-player run on centerfielders, Jenkins has the least impressive offensive skill set of any of the players but is more balanced than they are. A righty with a broad-based skill set offensively, Jenkins is also nearly fully formed and could help the Aviators right away, which seems to be their first round strategy. Speedy on the basepaths and good defensively, Jenkins is a legitimate 5-tool talent but not overwhelmingly impressive in any of them.

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21. 3B Juan Hernandez (Charm City): Hernandez was outstanding in college last year, but pros say that he has a long way to go to hit major league stuff. However, once he gets there he should be a ten-year regular at the hot corner. A big-armed third baseman with some consistency issues, Hernandez needs to grow into his bat and grow into his defensive abilities also. He’s a high ceiling prospect who also has a low floor, since at 21 and a half years old he’s not at all fully formed. Good conditioning and a positive attitude should help him.

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22. RP John Olson (Valencia): Olson might be the best reliever prospect in the draft, which is saying something as there are several such players in this draft. He might not take the news well: he’s been second and third in Fox Mulder voting over the last two years. Olson needs to work on his movement as he’s primarily been overpowering college hitters with his stuff, and he has a bit of growing to do before he’s ready to help a major league bullpen. It’s a concern as he’s almost 22 years old. However, Valencia could surely use the help. A reliever conversion later in his career would help with a bump in velocity, making him even more impressive.

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23. RP Martin Roman (Nashville): I’m going to sound like a broken record with this one, because the writeup for Roman looks a little like the writeup for Olson. However, Roman isn’t quite as developed as Olson is at this point in their careers, and has a lower ceiling. He’s nearly 22 years old also, and he still has to work on his offspeed stuff, his movement, and his control. He’s another pitcher who would make a good reliever conversion at this point. His intangibles are very strong, and he’s a potential bullpen workhorse. What’s not to like?

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24. SP Pat Brown (Mexico City): Brown is a legitimate starting pitching prospect and one of the few high school players picked so far. A lefty with good command of multiple pitches for a teenager, Brown nonetheless has a long way to go before he becomes a big leaguer. A sinkerballer who’s an extreme groundball pitcher, Brown’s makeup makes it unlikely he gains a lot of velocity as he ages, but he shows signs of understanding how to pitch. Should be a rotation mainstay for a long time if he makes it.

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25. SP Jose Torres (Vancouver): No doubt Vancouver has visions of Torres finding another level dancing in their heads. The teenage righty potentially has strong command of four pitches, including two different changeups. He throws hard for a teenager and has excellent intangibles. While none of his other attributes seem outstanding, he could be a solid #3 starter if he doesn’t gain any ground at all. However, the team is hoping that through the maturation process he gains velocity or some increase in movement or control. If he does he could be really special.

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26. 3B Alfonso Trinidad (Omaha): There’s the last guy in the green room. Trinidad is a highly regarded third base prospect with a huge arm and solid plate skills. A righty hitter with a wide range of skills, Trinidad at this point has shown very few holes offensively and not much falloff against righty pitching. He has been hitting like gangbusters in college this year. He still has some growing to do, but in a couple years he should be a 10-year regular at the hot corner.

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27. RF Mario Pereira (Boise): Following the trend of nearly fully formed players, Boise drafts themselves a fourth outfielder. That’s only a little bit of a joke because Boise’s outfield is liquid awesome, but nothing about Pereira screams “star,” even while he’d likely be a regular on most ballclubs. A lefty outfielder who, unlike previous picks, has no serious holes against lefty pitching, Pereira does everything well but nothing especially well. He should be up quickly, as Boise does need a backup outfielder for their All-Star trio.

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28. SP Hiroshi Murayama (Louisville): Lefty starter Murayama is one of the few high school players drafted in the first round this year, and unfortunately his ceiling isn’t huge. He does have the ability to become a rotation mainstay, however, and maybe more than that if he gains some velocity on his already mid-90s stuff. Murayama already has solid command of his pitches for a teenager, excellent stamina, a good move to first base and excellent intangibles, so he has a shot to make it.

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29. SP David Williams (New Orleans): It’s a wonder that lefty starter Williams didn’t go earlier, but not a huge shock if you consider that most players taken ahead of him have been much more fully developed than the big righty. Williams has personality issues, too, which might hold him back at first with teammates and coaches. Still, there’s no denying Williams’ talent, which puts him maybe among the top ten pitchers in this draft. Another high schooler, there’s plenty of time to adjust his attitude. They’ll have to coach him up a little bit, but he could be a good one.

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30. SP Marvin Winston (California): Winston is another high school pitcher, and he’s got a long way to go to the majors. Winston has average stuff but the ball dances out of his hand, and if he gets his changeup he should be a four-pitch innings eater with a long career ahead of him. Good intangibles, throws hard for a teenager, relatively cheap compared to his neighbors.

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31. RP Shinsaku Sato (Edmonton): Sato is a college lefty reliever who reaches the mid-90s on his sinker, and as a results throws a fairly large amount of groundballs. He is showing a huge lefty/righty platoon, and could be absolute death on lefthanded hitters by the time he gets fully developed. It’s hard to imagine what he might look like as a reliever with his skills if he got all of them, though it might look a little like Carlton Casson. Sato is highly intelligent and should carve out a spot as a LOOGY at least, but he has the talent to be more than that.

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32. CF Chris Thomas (Calgary): High schooler Thomas is maybe the last obvious potential impact two-way batter in the draft, though he does have some warts. Thomas seems like the sort of guy who has all the physical skills but isn’t really sure what to do with them. He’s a bit of a free swinger and probably won’t hit for a high average, especially since he’s a righty. He does have all five tools, but he might be the sort of toolsy player that doesn’t translate offensively in the majors. One thing he doesn’t seem to have is a big platoon factor just yet, which should help his ability to play every day. Thomas should be able to play center field eventually, and would likely be an impact defender at either corner outfield position. Not a great baserunner for a fast guy, either.

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33. RP Raul Gonzales (Las Vegas): Lefty “starter” will almost surely be a reliever in the major leagues. Gonzales needs to work on his command, but he could have above average stuff for a reliever and hammered out most of his tools in college. A thought experiment with Gonzales will be whether or not to convert him to a starting pitcher. My instincts on this one say no, because Gonzales is not an especially hard thrower as it is. If he picks up some velocity they could revisit this one in three years.

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34. 3B Mike Galloway (Rockville): Galloway, the 2041 Alberto Guzman Batter Award winner, had a very impressive high school career and was the youngest player selected in the first round of the draft. As you might expect, Galloway is a raw talent who has a long way to grow to become a major leaguer. The lefty third baseman is already showing a little platoon factor and might end up needing a caddy when he grows older, but the Pikemen have a long way to go before they have to worry about what he’s going to become. Galloway has mediocre defensive skills at this point but no intangible problems and is young enough to improve. The pick may represent a falloff in pitching talent in the back end of the first round.

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35. P Derrick Chaney (Yellow Springs): Chaney is an interesting case. As a college pitcher who’s likely to become a reliever, you’d expect Chaney to be pretty ready considering the rest of this draft. However, Chaney has a very long way to go at age 21, which may be why he’s got the moniker “Crash Test.” He had a very unimpressive single season of college as a walk-on. Chaney also has some plate skills but a fairly low ceiling offensively. He could be an ace reliever, or he could be a total washout. It’s exactly the sort of player a deep farm system like Yellow Springs can afford to draft.

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36. SP Allen Gunn (New Orleans): Gunn is a fascinating example of the 2042 BBA, because that’s what’s supposed to be an average pitcher in the new look Brewster. Admittedly he appears to have the potential for above average stuff and mediocre tools, which may have always been kind of an average pitcher. He does have a big arm and it might benefit from becoming bigger; besides, he may be a good reliever even if he never gets his change. Good intangibles and conditioning might help ease him along.

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37. RP Albert Love (Edmonton): Love is a righty reliever with an extreme righty platoon. How extreme? His pitches absolutely dance away from righthanded batters – and directly into the bats of lefty batters. As a low-endurance reliever it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be the rare “ROOGY.” Love arrives almost fully formed as a player, so what you see is what you get. Scouts believe his delivery makes him injury-prone, though he’s never had one before. An extreme groundballer with excellent intangibles, Love should have a long major league career as long as he doesn’t have to face too many lefties.

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38. 1B Francisco Borges (Rockville): Rockville doubling up on the high school corner infielders, as Borges comes to them just as raw as their other pick, Mike Galloway. Borges actually looks a lot like current Rockville 1B fill in Willis Roberts, which might not be a good thing considering Roberts has struggled at the major league level. He does have a potentially better batting eye, however, is likely to strike out less and his youth is an advantage for the usually contending Pikemen, as they need players who will be ready in a few years. Won back to back Silver Bat equivalents in high school at first base. No intangible minuses, zero skills on the basepaths.

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39. 3B Derek Cumming (Yellow Springs): Cumming is a two-time HS All Star, and was on pace to make it three straight this season. A fast, switch-hitting third baseman with a big infield arm, Cumming doesn’t have the power potential of Mike Galloway but might draw more walks and strike out less often. He’ll probably be adequate defensively. He’d have to hit more than he does to be a future leadoff man, I think, but it’s not out of the question. Doesn’t scream first rounder, but likely has a major league future.

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40. RP Curt Davis (Long Beach): Davis could be a quality lefthanded reliever if the Surfers do nothing, but there are some things they can maybe do to make him better. A reliever conversion will add some velocity, and since he’s just 19 years old, already throws hard and could grow even more into his arm, he’ll be potentially even better than that. Good intangibles. Very possibly the best pure pitcher left on the board.

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[bcslouck]

Nice job Aaron. Missed this.

[HoosierVic]

This is fantastic. The thumbnails on Costa and Mann are worth the price of admission all by themselves. Bravo!

[bigmike13]

Great job Aaron.

[indiansfan]

Nice article. Always enjoy reading these draft reviews

[Lane]

happy to see this back. thanks Aaron

[jleddy]

Nice work. I know these take a lot of time...great stuff.

[johnd2442]

Really succinct writing and I learned a lot. Succinct writing I think is a skill.

[CTBrewCrew]

[usnspecialist]

really enjoyed this, and I was thrilled to get dickens (especially since I know he was being considered by at least 1 team in the top 10). Was going to be really torn between him and alvarez had they both gotten to me.

[RonCo]

No one does this like Aaron. I admit I both like my two guys and am worried about them.

[Fat Nige]

Looking at those that went between Sackett and my next pick at #20 I don't see anyone that would have helped me, hopefully, as much as he will within the next few years and I definately didn't see him being available at #45. Sometimes you just have to grab them when you can.
Part of Jenkins attraction too was the fact that he was born in Wichita, which made him that little bit more valuable and as you've spotted I'm not looking for any 4/5 year projects if I can help it.

[bcslouck]

really enjoyed this, and I was thrilled to get dickens (especially since I know he was being considered by at least 1 team in the top 10). Was going to be really torn between him and alvarez had they both gotten to me.

I liked him a lot to. I was kind of surprised he dropped that far. As he kept dropping, I was hoping to have him fall to me. Nice pick.

[recte44]

Great stuff.

Two thoughts:
With Bill Keil he would be a very interesting SP conversion.

And then there's my pick. I was waiting on Olson, waiting and waiting....and he was right there for me. Right up until the point when Valencia snagged him with the pick right before mine. Damnit.

[crobillard]

Great stuff.

Two thoughts:
With Bill Keil he would be a very interesting SP conversion.

And then there's my pick. I was waiting on Olson, waiting and waiting....and he was right there for me. Right up until the point when Valencia snagged him with the pick right before mine. Damnit.

I love Olson. I was hoping he would slip to me especially when I saw the centerfielders coming off the board. I was sad when Valencia snagged him. I’ve been there with picks right in front of me too. It’s rude.

[Lane]

I would be very concerned about Keil's velo as an As an SP convert, but otherwise he would make sense.

Olson will be a good reliever.

[Spiccoli]

I've got Costa penciled in at LF... Even if he has to platoon with Hejhin (LHB) to start with.

The timing of his coming up will be dictated how the season goes. If TWC somehow can keep it together even with the mediocre pitching, the team will definitely need his bat for the offense. Pedro Garza hasn't kept up with his side of the LF platoon this season.

Otherwise, I won't be a huge rush to bring up him this season... maybe after expansion.

If only Brian King would finally develop as a starter... lol. He's sure taking his sweet time in the minors, I'm going to have to put on the 40 man next season while he's still at AA at this rate.

[RonCo]

I think Brian King should slow down and smell the roses. You only go around once, might as well enjoy the minor league life while you can!

[leejay56]

nice write up, Olsen was my choice early on since I was drafting in the middle of the draft...glad he dropped down to Valencia pick,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

[Lane]

nice write up, Olsen was my choice early on since I was drafting in the middle of the draft...glad he dropped down to Valencia pick,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Hopefully he never fully develops his movement.

Respectfully,

Frick League Pacific GMs