Comparing 1st and 2nd place from 2035-2040 Sawyer Silk Award Winners.(Yes another Emilio Morales thread)

[niles08]

I stumbled my way into a league feature this morning when writing team news and noticing that Emilio Morales had finished 2nd in 4 straight seasons for the Sawyer award and finished 5th and 7th the other 2 seasons. With that, I decided to look at just how close in comparison he was to the eventual winner of the Sawyer that season along with throwing my thoughts towards the final tally and welcoming others' thoughts as well.

Here is the link to the spreadsheet detailing each season’s winner along with Morales stats for that season. I have colored the stats that are “league leader” stats, but did not color anything that was not a first-place finish so some of the uncovered could be 2nd or 3rd, or could be not on the board at all.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DHYRmx ... sp=sharing

2035:

Emilio Morales and Jared Gillstrom finished 1st and 2nd. Gillstrom had a great year, as shown by his 7.0 WAR and on-base percentage just under .400. He walked twice as often as Morales, but also struck out 4 times as often.

Morales hit nearly double the amount of home runs as Gillstrom along with 50 more RBI. He actually out doubled Gillstrom, and his OPS+, WRC+, and defense was superior to Gillstrom. His OBP of .337 clearly knocked him down despite his WOBA being higher than that of Gillstrom. Finishing at 6.9 WAR compared to 7.0 may have sealed Morales’s fate in this one more than anything.

Verdict: Morales probably deserved to win this season.

2036:

The battle of the Heartland as Lucas McNeill of Yellow Springs edged out Emilio Morales for the Sawyer. McNeill had a great year leading the league in runs scored, while having an on-base percentage of .414, and WAR of 7.2, all of which lead the league. He struck out nearly 4 times as often as Morales, but did walk at double the pace. His WOBA of .400 easily edged out Morales of .367

Morales had one thing going for him in 2036. He leads the league in both home runs and RBI, while batting near .291. Despite that, his OPS+ was still lower than McNeil’s excellent season.

Verdict: Mcneill deserved the award.

2037:

Luis Maldonado was the next player to go toe to toe with Emilio Morales and take him down for the third consecutive year in 2037. Maldonado led the league in RBI with 158, and had a league-best 6.9 WAR. Maldonado for his efforts did steal 44 bases in 2037.

Morales hit 64 home runs and had just 7 less RBI than Maldonado. He had a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and a WOBA just shy of Maldonado.

The duo had an OPS+ and WAR of exactly the same.

Verdict: This one could have gone either way, but went the way of Morales being sent home with 2nd place yet again.

2038:

The 4th year brought yet another new challenger to beat Emilio Morales. Angel Zalapa of Valencia stepped up to the plate and gave all he had, eventually winning the Landis. His 7.5 WAR, which led the league could be a clue as to why.

Morales led the league in both home runs and RBI’s again, while batting .313/.351/.625, all superior to Angel Zalapa’s line. The duo had a WOBA of exactly the same .397. Morales was graded as the better defense for the 2038 season.

Verdict: Morales should have taken home at least his 2nd Sawyer award this season.

2039:

Angel Zalapa repeated his efforts in 2039, while Emilio Morales sunk down to 7th in the voting finish. Zalapa led the league in OPS, while Morales led the league again in home runs and RBI. Zalapa was a clear winner this season and Morales deserved no more than his 7th place finish at best, despite his league-leading attributes.

2040:

Aaron Haney took the world by storm winning not only the newcomer award but also the Sawyer Silk and giving Valencia their third straight Sawyer winner. Emilio Morales bounced back to finish 5th in the voting, and once again led the league in home runs and RBI, hitting a new career-high of 66 home runs. Haney didn’t draw a low of walks, but still outdrew Morales and put up a 7.3 WAR compared to Morales at 5.7. Another season in which Morales was clearly beat out.

Final Verdict: Morales should have 2-3 Sawyer Silks sitting at his house right now, but the league has decided because he plays in a home run-heavy park that Morales is not deserving of the top honor. It has been shown that Omaha’s ballpark has bumped Morales home run production by 9% compared to a regular ballpark. On a season when Morales hits 55 home runs that is approximately 5 home runs more than the regular ballpark would have.

Valencia’s ballpark has the same factors for RHB HR as Omaha.
San Fernando’s ballpark allows for more home runs than normal.

Should Zalapa been rewarded for his output those seasons or should have he been scrutinized just as much if his home run total’s played a role (which they did in his WAR).

Not to the exact same magnitude but should Maldonado be looked at the same way in his Sawyer season?

[usnspecialist]

I'm pretty sure my park (while above 1.000 for HR), is actually right about in the middle of the league as far as those ratings go and is far more balanced than OMA (and I had the exact same park factors in both 35 and 37 as I do today).

[niles08]

I'm pretty sure my park (while above 1.000 for HR), is actually right about in the middle of the league as far as those ratings go and is far more balanced than OMA (and I had the exact same park factors in both 35 and 37 as I do today).

Batting average is 1.108 so it's inflated a bit if the average is 1.0. Home runs not so much but 1.045 is nothing to completely disregard. I never said it was the exact same as Omaha's ballpark. I also said this is one that could have gone either way and it actually came down to the wire. The Gillstrom one and Zalapa ones are probably 2 he should have been considered a bit more for.

[RonCo]

I think Morales's 2035 case is pretty strong--though a bigger chunk of his WAR came defensively. His wOBA was stronger, and his OPS+ (which is supposed to be somewhat Park Adjusted) was better. Gillstrom has a big name benefit, though. It probably didn't hurt Gillstrom's case that he helped his team to the playoffs while Omaha sat home. Voters are weird sometimes.

I'd be less inclined to take Zalapa's 2038 award away from him. Yes, Morales slugged a bit more, but Zalapa OBPed a lot better, and his OPS+/wOBA advantage was small but real.

I wonder if there's a way to see who we voted for. What was the margin of victory in each case? I can't recall in any particular year. It's completely fair to attempt to look at votes through a ballpark lens, but it's also hard to do. REgardless, I can't really buy that he should have two trophies, but I can at least see one.

[usnspecialist]

i know OU used to have historical award results where you can see totals, so if that link is still active (i cant find it anywhere), you can probably find it. I know the 2037 vote was something like 170-167.

[aaronweiner]

I don't think you have to worry about his place in Wisconsin though.