THREE SIGNINGS TOP HOT, EARLY FREE AGENT MARKET

[RonCo]

I admit that I personally have a Love-Hate relationship with the whole Free Agent cycle. It’s great fun. Yes, it is. Especially now that we have actual players available. I love seeing players taking big wads of cash from other teams, you know? But, on the other hand, I just want the guys I want to be reasonable. You get the idea. These guys should just want to be in Yellow Springs.

Sigh.

Regardless, a new round of the Hot Stove League is always interesting, and this year it’s been especially so in the early rounds because we’re already seeing some big numbers.

Let’s take a look at the three biggest signings of the first two weeks.

New Jacksonville GM Gregg Greathouse opened up the Florida checkbook and dropped $57m (plus bonuses) on right handed pitcher Carlos Rodriguez. The guy they call “Big Time” made only $3.4m from Calgary in his last arbitration season, but Jacksonville is in a weird situation—greatly needing pitching to be semi-competitive, and having the cash to flash. Rodriguez is one of the top names in the pool, so if you’re going to over-spend, maybe that makes sense.

That said, this does seem like a bit of an over-spend, as Big-Time has been more effective from the bullpen than he has from the rotation throughout most of his career. Regardless, at the end of the day $14m on its own isn’t a horrible glop of cash to drop on a starter. The issue, though, is timing. Four seasons is a bit more risk than certain teams (me!) like to take on for a 30-year-old with borderline control. The Hurricanes have a group of younger players moving through the ranks, though. If this makes them more competitive early, maybe it will work out.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Jacksonville fans will be happy for a season or two, but that C-Rod will eventually wear out his welcome at that proce tag.

Des Moines spent a big chunk of their expanded budget on 26-year-old third-baseman Kiichi Suzuki, giving him $74m for six seasons, as well as the flexibility of an opt-out after three. It’s an interesting deal. Given Suzuki’s age, the six seasons isn’t horrible—though it’s a just a little pricey for a guy who has been essentially a 2 WAR platoon player. That said, he’s a solid LHB, which Des Monies needed there, and he’s also dropped 3.9 WAR in a fulltime season, so his upside is well within that $12m/per range. Given that the Kernels are likely banking on young pitching, adding offense is a no-brainer.

The other aspect of this that makes some sense is that--if the Kernels are really on the rise here--one expects the budget to raise again each of the next few seasons—hence making the purse-strings a little easier to relax. Suzuki is also a bit of a fav favorite, and assuming the team does well enough, has a clubhouse presence that could add to the fire.

On the whole, it's still probably an over-pay, but it's not a huge overpay. I kind alike this one, even if it does mean the Heartland gets better.

Look at that picture? See the smile? Justin Jackson will make $23 million for each of the next three seasons, no matter what, and then—if New Orleans GM Jim Roberts’s finger slips while declining a team option, he’ll make $24m in 2045. That’s right. At 27 years old, Jackson is set for life. Now, admittedly, the kid took home a Sawyer in 2037 (for 6 WAR), and managed a Puckett as a DH last year (for 2.6 WAR split among two teams). So, he’s not dogmeat. But. $69m?

Interesting. But, yes, I'd be smiling like that, too.

New Orleans had to be thinking he was the piece. The missing link, as it were? The bus token to Valhalla. And it’s possible. I mean, it took pianos falling on the elbows and shoulders of pretty much the entire pitching staff to keep New Orleans out of the top spot last year. Assuming that doesn’t happen again, maybe we’ll see Jackson wearing a Landis ring next off season.

That said, that's a pretty big paycheck.

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So, yeah, there we have it. Those are my thoughts, anyway. What are yours?

On to Rule 5, and IFA, and the rest of the whole Free Agent cycle!

[JimBob2232]

I get the concern with the money, but this guy https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 29534.html would have been my starting RF next year. That’s what I was looking at. Improving that position specifically.

I know it’s a lot...but I don’t have many other gaps. I could use a MR or maybe a #5 SP...maybe a CF. but when it came down to it RF was the position I could most improve in FA. And Jackson was the best one. Wanted to lock him in with a payday.

As I noted I still have a ton of cap space. So...reward >>>> risk on this one. Just my read.

[jleddy]

Nice write-up! Jackson's smile is pretty darn perfect given the context.

I really hope you plan a Part II after the next wave of free agents go.

[niles08]

If only New Orleans had tried to trade for him last season when I dangled him out there? He only wanted $30 million over 3 years at the time. I think it was 9, 10, and 11 million or something like that.

[RonCo]

If only New Orleans had tried to trade for him last season when I dangled him out there? He only wanted $30 million over 3 years at the time. I think it was 9, 10, and 11 million or something like that.

If you've got the money ... paying an extra $10-$12M is arguably far more valuable than trading value.

[GoldenOne]

If only New Orleans had tried to trade for him last season when I dangled him out there? He only wanted $30 million over 3 years at the time. I think it was 9, 10, and 11 million or something like that.

If you've got the money ... paying an extra $10-$12M is arguably far more valuable than trading value.

And if you are an expansion team and dont really have much to trade, its very valuable. Unfortunately, I need a little more than just Jackson so my $14.5M AAV offer wasnt enough to make the cut.

[niles08]

If only New Orleans had tried to trade for him last season when I dangled him out there? He only wanted $30 million over 3 years at the time. I think it was 9, 10, and 11 million or something like that.

If you've got the money ... paying an extra $10-$12M is arguably far more valuable than trading value.

Its not like I was asking much lol

[JimBob2232]

I also dont think i had the cap space for him last year (but cant recall...)

[RonCo]

Its not like I was asking much lol

If I remember my media guide piece from a couple seasons back, a let second round pick is worth something like $10m ... so anything more than that would have been a bad deal? Over-simplifying greatly.