2041: Offensive Explosion - A Look at Stat Rates
Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:38 pm
And here’s the basic proof.
| Stat | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|
| R/G | 4.98 | 5.43 |
Run scoring was up nearly half a run a game from last year—a massive jump. Unprecedented in BBA history as far as I can tell. We’ve seen jumps before, of course. Some as high a .35 or so. But this one was a pretty danged big jump.
And here’s the thing—unlike in that weird MLB thing some people keep talking about, the jump in runs has nothing to do with big flies, nada about homers, zippo to do with round trippers. You get the idea, right? While chicks still dig the long ball, I hear, the BBA upsurge in runs is all about the basics—putting the ball into play, taking extra bases, cutting down on Ks, and getting on base.
Don’t believe me?
Here’s some more numbers, first a look at hits and hit types and their rates from year-to-year:
| Stat | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | 0.264 | 0.275 |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.309 |
| 1B/AB | 0.161 | 0.171 |
| 2B/AB | 0.056 | 0.059 |
| 3B/AB | 0.007 | 0.008 |
| HR/AB | 0.039 | 0.038 |
WE see batting average jumped massively, and none of that was related to homers. In fact, the home run rate dropped in 2041. Not massively. Probably in the noise, really. But the fact is clear that the dinger rate did not rise whereas everything else did, particularly the lowly base hit—which our batters also then converted to doubles and triples at extended rates with respect to At Bats (there’s the thing when it comes to that Gap rating that a lot of people want to discount).
The bottom line to my eyes is BABIP—which skyrocketed twelve points, resulting in higher averages, and more extra base hits.
This is a big-assed deal all on its own, but let’s take a look at two other “true outcomes,” strike outs and walks:
| Stat | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|
| K/AB | 0.212 | 0.204 |
| BB/PA | 0.08 | 0.088 |
We see strikeouts were down a little under 4%. This is a big deal because every strikeout reduces the effect of balls in play (hence BABIP, which we’ve already seen jumped bigtime). Of equal interest is that at the same time, walks per plate appearance increased by about 10%. That’s pretty danged big.
As an aside, I think it’s interesting to see that HRs got better for pitchers (went down), but Ks and walk-rates got worse. I tend to buy the whole “pitching is getting worse” thing, but this suggests that the “issue” is not with pitcher movement, but with stuff and control. Also, however, given that we have so many hitters flowing into the league with very high contact (BABIP) ratings, I’m thinking the bigger issue is with the control rating.
And by “issue,” I don’t mean anything is particularly wrong, but that the rating may be seeing a dive in recent times. That said, I’ struggle with any one rating being the sole cause of a half a run a game jump in performance. The rat that this smells like is multi-dimensional.
For the fun of it, here are some stolen base numbers:
| Stat | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|
| SB% | 74.30% | 73.20% |
| SB/1B | 0.015 | 0.017 |
How about fielding percentage:
| Stat | 2040 | 2041 |
|---|---|---|
| F% | .983 | .983 |
Herein lies danger, though. Fielding percentage by the game has not changed appreciably, but fielding percentage is a horrible stat to measure defense by. All it basically says is that the error rate on registered chances has not changed appreciably.
I note that when I looked at fielding data from my game log, I found (as I recall off my head) that defense was getting to a percent or so fewer balls than they did last year. If that is true, the fact that we are fielding poorer defenses than we have in the past would also account for some of that twelve-point BABIP jump.
SO, WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Well, I dunno. Feel free to tell me what you think, but I think this is an “and” world rather than a “this world.” By that I mean that I think the bottom line on what is causing this big surge is a crossfire combination of pitcher demise, increase in superstar contact guys, poorer defenses, and a subtle increase in the existence of more offensive ballparks when it comes to doubles and triples. Some of this data bears that opinion out, some of it (the defensive stuff especially) it remains at least somewhat mum on.
I don’t know what to project for next year. I don’t know how hard or not hard the game’s development processes are at work in the paring down of pitchers—or whether it will revers shortly and work harder on offensive players. All I can say for sure is that the game environment is in flux, and (with a little frustration thrown in on a daily bases) I admit I think this is a “good” thing in that it makes it very hard to project what’s happening tomorrow.
This, after all, is why we play the game.