I wish I’d gotten this out a few days ago, but to be honest, I didn’t know I’d want to write this until I saw the ballot for the Nebraska.
My goal here is not to tell you who to vote for, or that you’re wrong if you don’t vote for Shawn Huber, but rather just to make you think about something you might not do, that is, vote a reliever for the Nebraska award.
For me, a reliever has to really stand out to earn my vote for this award. I generally lean towards starters when a reliever has equivalent or even slightly better rate stats. This year though, I want to make a case for voting for Huber because he does exactly what I look for…he stands out, in a big way.
Let’s start with the old standby, ERA. Now, we all know ERA is flawed but it’s definitely not useless. It’s a good indicator of what happened over the course of a season, and I think on a season-long level, what actually happened should play a significant role in awards voting.
On to the first chart! Note: The charts include all pitchers listed on the Nebraska Ballot, and I’m highlighting Huber in red.
- ERA.png (5.42 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
Let’s move FIP, to a measure that’s viewed as more a look at what “should” have happened, though there’s plenty of what “actually” happened in it. For those that don’t know, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, and uses strikeouts, walks, HBPs, and innings pitched, and is adjusted so that league average FIP is equal to league average ERA.
- FIP.png (5.03 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
Moving right along, here’s WHIP, which I believe we’re all familiar with.
- WHIP.png (6.27 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
On to a few of my favorites. Here’s K%. I like K% because it doesn’t penalize good pitchers in the way that K/9 does. If you’re a good pitcher, you’re getting more guys out and facing less batters. Less batters faced equals less opportunities for strikeouts. If you’re a not so good pitcher, you’re getting fewer guys out, facing more batters, more opportunities for strikeouts blah blah blah. Got it? Strikeouts are a great measure of just how good a pitcher is in that one-on-one fight at the center of this game we love so much.
Chart!
- K Percent.png (6.47 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
You see the pattern, right?
Walk percentage! BB/9 doesn’t penalize the good pitchers the same way K/9 does, but it’s a more true rate stat.
- BB Percent.png (6.56 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
esque 3.3%. But Huber is third, and though this is the first one I’m showing that’s not an outlier, you certainly can’t hold this against him.
Alrighty, one of my favorite things is to mash up the K% and the BB%, since it’s generally understood that those are the two outcomes that pitchers have the most control over. I wish StatsPlus did this for us, maybe I’ll shoot him an email. Anyway, whip up a little excel formula and this is what you get.
- k minus bb percentage.png (8.1 KiB) Viewed 3175 times
Thanks, now pull your jaw up off of the floor.
I’m pretty sure you could fly a 747 through that gap. The combination of K’s and BB’s is just a complete outlier this season. Calgary’s Jefferson Pierce is second here, with old friend Dan Cannon third, at 18.9%, Huber is 28.9%.
Okay, so let’s address the starter vs reliever issues. Yes, Huber pitched a lot fewer innings (152) and therefore accumulated a lower war (5.6). Top contenders Cannon (226 IP, 7.7 WAR), Dempster (245 IP, 6.6 WAR) and Martin (235 IP, 6.6 WAR) are definitely superior in these respects. However, Huber demolishes them in WPA (Win Probability Added) with a 3.3 mark, while the SUM of the three mentioned is 1.9. So, fewer innings, but more important innings, and performance when it really mattered.
So, if you won’t vote for a reliever because he’s a reliever, that’s fine. But I’m voting for Huber because he had an amazing season, and he stood out from the rest of the pitchers in the Johnson League. Frankly, I wouldn’t have a good basis to decide between Cannon, Dempster and Martin if Huber weren’t on the ballot.
Thanks for reading. Please take this survey about how this article changed or didn’t change your mind. By the way, you're able to go to StatsPlus and change your vote, if you so choose.
