The Brewster

So there has been some discussion and observations about how absolutely insane the offenses are this season (or maybe more accurately, how awful the pitching is), so i figured i would see if that is accurate. I have the yearly averages for a slew of offensive and pitching categories dating back to 1995 so i took the top and bottom 10 (which will come in post 2) for a few of them, just to get an idea of where 2041 would fit in and maybe see where the explosion is coming from. I will post the data in the initial 2 posts and some observations in subsequent posts if i get around to it. Other observations and comments obviously welcomed.

RUNS/GAME: 2041 Pace 5.39

1 1997 5.04
2 2039 5.02
3 2009 5.02
4 2040 4.98
5 2011 4.96
6 2007 4.94
7 2001 4.93
8 2008 4.91
9 2037 4.91
10 2013 4.90

HITS: 2041 Pace 1550

1 2009 1580
2 2013 1571
3 2014 1563
4 1997 1559
5 2008 1555
6 2001 1544
7 2002 1543
8 2010 1537
9 2000 1535
10 1998 1535

2B: 2041 Pace 330

1 2040 315
2 2009 300
3 2014 300
4 2016 298
5 2008 297
6 2013 293
7 2039 292
8 2038 292
9 2015 291
10 2010 289

HR: 2041 Pace 216

1 2039 223
2 2040 219
3 2037 217
4 2038 215
5 2036 212
6 2035 208
7 1997 204
8 2032 194
9 2034 190
10 2031 189

OBP: 2041 Pace .345

1 2007 .342
2 2009 .342
3 2002 .339
4 2013 .339
5 2008 .338
6 2003 .338
7 2004 .337
8 2011 .337
9 2001 .337
10 2014 .336

SLG: 2041 Pace .464

1 2040 .452
2 2039 .448
3 2037 .444
4 2038 .443
5 1997 .443
6 2036 .438
7 2032 .436
8 2035 .436
9 2031 .433
10 1998 .432

OPS: 2041 Pace .808

1 2040 .782
2 2039 .780
3 1997 .777
4 2037 .774
5 2038 .774
6 2032 .772
7 2009 .772
8 2007 .769
9 2031 .768
10 2002 .768

RUNS/GAME: 2041 Pace 5.39

1 2021 4.12
2 2023 4.23
3 2025 4.26
4 2022 4.28
5 2026 4.29
6 2024 4.32
7 2020 4.32
8 2027 4.38
9 2018 4.39
10 2030 4.43


HITS: 2041 Pace 1550

1 2021 1424
2 2025 1436
3 2027 1438
4 2028 1439
5 2026 1444
6 2022 1447
7 2023 1448
8 2024 1452
9 2035 1453
10 2036 1455

2B: 2041 Pace 330

1 2029 238
2 2030 239
3 2027 253
4 2023 257
5 2025 262
6 2021 262
7 2026 263
8 2024 268
9 1999 270
10 2032 270

HR: 2041 Pace 216

1 1995 153
2 2015 159
3 2005 164
4 2003 165
5 2017 165
6 2021 165
7 2016 165
8 2014 166
9 2013 166
10 2018 167

OBP: 2041 Pace .345

1 2021 .311
2 2023 .315
3 2025 .315
4 2024 .316
5 2026 .316
6 2022 .317
7 2027 .318
8 2020 .319
9 2019 .321
10 2029 .321

SLG: 2041 Pace .464

1 2021 .405
2 1995 .406
3 2025 .410
4 2027 .411
5 2029 .412
6 2005 .413
7 2023 .413
8 2026 .413
9 2020 .413
10 2015 .414

OPS: 2041 Pace .808

1 2021 .716
2 2025 .725
3 2023 .727
4 1995 .727
5 2026 .729
6 2027 .729
7 2022 .731
8 2020 .731
9 2029 .733
10 2024 .733

The real question is which division is better.

crobillard wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:03 pm

The real question is which division is better.

I believe it rhymes with "HeartLand"

I'm of strong belief that the offensive uptick is because of 3 reasons.....

1. The stuck changeup epidemic that lumped a large amount of pitching prospects for several season.
2. OOTP become more realistic with injury distribution (pitchers get hurt more then hitters)
3. That crazy draft that had an extreme amount of good hitters.

The stuck changeup doesn't seem as prevelant as it used to be. We turned down injuries(except to New Orleans) and that draft was just one crazy draft. Offense will be up for a few more years but I'm sure it will normalize gradually.

ae37jr wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:27 pm

I'm of strong belief that the offensive uptick is because of 3 reasons.....

1. The stuck changeup epidemic that lumped a large amount of pitching prospects for several season.
2. OOTP become more realistic with injury distribution (pitchers get hurt more then hitters)
3. That crazy draft that had an extreme amount of good hitters.

The stuck changeup doesn't seem as prevelant as it used to be. We turned down injuries(except to New Orleans) and that draft was just one crazy draft. Offense will be up for a few more years but I'm sure it will normalize gradually.

I don't think the stuck changeup is any different from before. Another factor that isn't often discussed is that our ballparks have tended toward a more offensive environment. So that's likely a factor.

In addition, I could go back through the past few years of my granular defensive data. It's my opinion that defense--especially in the outfield--is noticeably worse. That's part of the draft class thing, I think. Anecdotally, we've had a lot of guys who can hit, but not field...especially corner outfielders. I would speculate that this as a fairly interesting influence, too.

League-wide, our parks environment for doubles and triples is at 1.02, and HR is at .98, which is as close to 1 as it's ever been in my time here.

The JL, in particular, has some high offensive factors.

Back last January (2037ish), when I made this post, the averate pitcher was about 8.74/6.27/7.11. The problem is that I can't recall if this was prior to moving to relative ratings or not. I'm moderately sure it was after, which would mean we're playing with apples and apples. But there's your caveat.

Today I pulled the Ratings of all the pitchers in the league, and then calculated those same ratings (the ratings of our pitchers based on the average plate appearance).

Here's the data:

Ratings	STU	MOV	CON
1		25
2		1240	1849
3	1316	3809	5837
4	5707	14985	9220
5	19425	39594	22313
6	33645	49123	36534
7	34821	28781	38964
8	24316	10718	28256
9	20335	2578	7361
10	5451	273	792
11	6110
Total BF	151126	151126	151126
AVG PA	7.07	5.82	6.36

In other words, the average plate appearance features a pitcher with:

Stuff = 7.07
Movement = 5.82
Control = 6.36

On the whole, the quality of our pitching is down about a point and a half of STUFF, a half point of MOV, and eight-tenths of control.

I'm sure the injury model has something to do with it--though the numbers are actually down the past several years. But I'm also able to report a general feeling that the development engine has been quite active on YS9 pitchers the past season or so.

As most are saying, this happens, though.

It so happens that we have a situation where several things are combining:

1) Pitching dropping, yes
2) Ballparks going offensive, yes
3) Mega-bat prospects arriving in force, yes.
4) Defense falling, dunno, but could be.

5) Increase in GM's using platoons ?????

In this same post, the averate hitter in any plate appearance was 6.95/6.88/6.33/.5.58/7.11.

Here is the hitter data today:

PLATE APPEARANCES

Rating	CON	GAP	POW	EYE	AVK
1			3616	78
2	123	644	7655	4713	1616
3	1362	4245	9877	10920	3111
4	14706	9230	13046	29184	11361
5	24567	21853	17614	38561	23227
6	37406	38915	27962	40812	33434
7	33524	34111	34642	11605	39458
8	23873	28313	24072	7191	22162
9	9874	10143	12201	5019	13265
10	4708	2883	446	2521	3497
11	988	794		527
Total	151131	151131	151131	151131	151131
AVG/PA	6.50	6.54	5.99	5.37	6.50

So our average PA hitter is:

Contact = 6.5
Gap = 6.54
Power = 5.99
Eye = 5.37
AVK = 6.50

Surprisingly, this shows the average quality of our hitters has also dropped a bit. Not as heavily as the averge ratings of our pitchers, but about maybe .3 of a point.

Given that the injury model hasn't seemed to be particularly hefty on our hitters, I'd suggest that has little to do with it--but it does lead me to question the development engine, which we predicted would likely kick into gear after the mega-classes, is doing just that.

To say it again, though, I think this will settle over time.

And to adjust this based on this info:

1) Pitching dropping, yes (injury and development engine impact)
2) Ballparks going offensive, yes
3) Mega-bat prospects arriving in force, not quite so much as we thought (see dev engine?)
4) Defense falling, dunno, but could be.

jleddy wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:31 pm

5) Increase in GM's using platoons ?????

That's possible, too.

Finally, here are what I think our park factors have been the past three years...HRs would be down a bit if everything else were normal...but all other factors are up--especially 2B/3B...which matches Randy's data on SLG, if nothing else.

Randy - Unless your data is in a chart or graph, I just dont think many of us will understand it.

This will be slightly adjusted this offseason

recte44 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:16 pm

This will be slightly adjusted this offseason

Which part is getting adjusted? There were several things discussed in this thread...

I believe he said Madison doesn't have to pay Mons Raider anymore

I'm posting this security camera video from inside Wolves front offices where our accounts are busy writing his checks...

I pulled data from my game log results of 2039 and this year to compare the influence of defense (there are some weird things going on in my 2040 data, so I want to be careful with those). Here's what I found:

Defense is worse in 2041...so that does add to the bump, too. Oddly, the decline is not exactly where I would have thought, but it makes sense.

• Fly Balls Converted to outs: 2039: 66.6% - 2041: 66.7% (essentially the same)
• Ground Balls Converted to outs: 2039: 70.8% - 2041: 69.4% (defense is 1.4% worse in 2041)
• Line Drives Converted to outs: 2039: 35.6% - 2041: 34.0% (defense is 1.6% worse in 2041)

Add in the fact that the K-rate is falling a little means there are more balls in play, and you can project some not insignificant increase in offense.

so, therefore:

1) Pitching dropping, yes (injury and development engine impact)
2) Ballparks going offensive, yes (average, doubles, and triples up, HR gently down)
3) Mega-bat prospects arriving in force, not quite so much as we thought (see dev engine?)
4) Defense falling, yes (~ 1.5% more GB & LD falling for hits)

Also, just checking, the defensive issues are likely about range/arm. The error rates on each batted ball type are pretty close to each other.

Ron: now do the same analysis again, but cut out the lowest 6% for going from 30 teams to 32.

I say it's expansion.