Yearly Averages

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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by recte44 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:56 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:35 am
Ron: now do the same analysis again, but cut out the lowest 6% for going from 30 teams to 32.

I say it's expansion.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:37 am

Your thinking is a more watered down pool since we have essentially 2 teams of starters that were boarder line starters before the expansion draft?
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by recte44 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:18 am

Yes. Also I didn't make the minor adjustments in the offseason that I usually do to normalize the settings.

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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:43 am

I'm sure expansion changes things a bit, so we should add it to the list ...but... I've got a bunch of stuff to post here in a bit to suggest Expansion is not an out-sized influence on the situation.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:44 am

I also don't think "tweaks" of the league totals make that big of a difference, but I base that on experience rather than any specific data...

Anyway...will be back with charts and graphs shortly. :)
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:06 am

First: Here is a table of numbers broken into four different sections. They represent bits of data that are true from 2029 and on. I’ll make some analysis as I go, but I’m open to other interpretations.

I'll look at the first couple segments in this post, then do some others on the stats data...

Park-Ratings-Stats-2029-2041.PNG

PARK FACTORS:

I’ve got some records of park factors from the past few years (averaged across the entire league). You can see that in 2041 we saw increases in AVG, 2B, and 3B, and decreases in HR. Similarly, we saw essentially the same thing in 2040—but AVG was maintained.

So, there’s data to say that our basic environment became more hitter friendly during the past two seasons.


RATINGS (PITCHING & HITTING):

I grabbed the ratings data I posted earlier, and put them here. These are valuable in context of the conversation because they’ve dropped pretty much across the board. I think there are three leading causes of these drops (in no particular perceived order).

1) Expansion has diluted the pool of players (applicable to all players)
2) The development engine is hyped up after the big draft classes (applicable to all players)
3) The injury model is hitting pitchers more now than it did in 2037

Add the park factors into this, and I think all of these are valid influencers to some degree (though the injury model has been toned down a bit now, its remnants could be being felt in these rating numbers). I note we should also recall the fact that our defensive performance has dropped by a percentage point or two (which is about player creation and the development engine, too).

I think it’s also probably not correct to pick only one of these and say that’s the cause of what’s happening this year. [This year, as were going to see, is a pretty big outlier]. I think the fact is that we have several things that influence the game’s outputs, and many of them have aligned to create this current surge in offense.


STATS RESULTS:

I’m going to follow this with a bunch of individual charts, but I wanted to put them here so you’ll see the raw data. It comes from StatsPlus and represents that average output/rates of a team in any particular season.

What I think this data will say is that while I’m sure expansion makes a little difference here, that it’s unlikely to be a very major contributor to the situation.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by usnspecialist » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:18 am

RonCo wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:06 am
First: Here is a table of numbers broken into four different sections. They represent bits of data that are true from 2029 and on. I’ll make some analysis as I go, but I’m open to other interpretations.

I'll look at the first couple segments in this post, then do some others on the stats data...


Park-Ratings-Stats-2029-2041.PNG


PARK FACTORS:

I’ve got some records of park factors from the past few years (averaged across the entire league). You can see that in 2041 we saw increases in AVG, 2B, and 3B, and decreases in HR. Similarly, we saw essentially the same thing in 2040—but AVG was maintained.

So, there’s data to say that our basic environment became more hitter friendly during the past two seasons.


RATINGS (PITCHING & HITTING):

I grabbed the ratings data I posted earlier, and put them here. These are valuable in context of the conversation because they’ve dropped pretty much across the board. I think there are three leading causes of these drops (in no particular perceived order).

1) Expansion has diluted the pool of players (applicable to all players)
2) The development engine is hyped up after the big draft classes (applicable to all players)
3) The injury model is hitting pitchers more now than it did in 2037

Add the park factors into this, and I think all of these are valid influencers to some degree (though the injury model has been toned down a bit now, its remnants could be being felt in these rating numbers). I note we should also recall the fact that our defensive performance has dropped by a percentage point or two (which is about player creation and the development engine, too).

I think it’s also probably not correct to pick only one of these and say that’s the cause of what’s happening this year. [This year, as were going to see, is a pretty big outlier]. I think the fact is that we have several things that influence the game’s outputs, and many of them have aligned to create this current surge in offense.


STATS RESULTS:

I’m going to follow this with a bunch of individual charts, but I wanted to put them here so you’ll see the raw data. It comes from StatsPlus and represents that average output/rates of a team in any particular season.

What I think this data will say is that while I’m sure expansion makes a little difference here, that it’s unlikely to be a very major contributor to the situation.
just imagine how crazy the numbers would be if we took all of the barking dogs out of the park to change the factors there... :P ;)
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:24 am

Ok, let’s look at stats from 2028 through today. I picked this time because that span includes all three expansions. So, I figured, maybe we can learn something from them.

Let’s start with extra base hits: doubles, triples, and homers. As you can see in these data, all three have been on general rising path over the years of our focus—something I’ve written about in the Media Guide lately.

2B-3B-HR-2029-2041.PNG

Looking at the three expansion periods:

After 2028 we expanded by four teams, and saw the rates of doubles, triples, and homers all actually fall in 2029—suggesting pitchers got the better hand in that expansion process (if anything).

After 2034, we expanded by two more teams, and gentle rises in doubles and triples (essentially the same), and a more solid rise in homers. All of these continued to rise afterward at very gentle rates—clearly nothing that would suggest anything structural had occurred, and more suggesting simple ratings drift or small tweaks in ballparks, or maybe this is pitcher injury…or defensive lapses…or all the above. Regardless, nothing in those moments stands out.

Then we get to our two-team expansion after 2039 and see doubles and triples rise, but homers drop. This is interesting. If we were seeing talent dilution due to expansion as the controlling feature, I’d expect them all to rise or all to fall (as in each of the last two). Again, I’m sure expansion dilution makes a difference, but I can’t help but note that this expansion period has also seen our ballparks get more conducive to doubles and triples, and less friendly to homers—which is what we see here. So I suggest that park effects are bigger than expansion effects.

There is more here than meets the eye, though, because, like all things OOTP, the system is complex.

A rise in doubles and triples could also be due to an extra dose of singles. As a general rule, you should look at a player’s GAP rating to indicate how often they can turn a single into an extra base hit. And, let’s face it, that jump for doubles and triples is big. Bigger than I’d expect park effects alone could manage—at least bigger than the changes we’re seeing in the league.

So, let’s look at a few other rates…
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:47 am

Now we’re cooking with some gas…

Here’s our data on batting average, K-rates, and BB-rates since 2029:

AVG-K-BB-2029-2041.PNG

Looking at expansion years here is interesting.

2028-2029: Batting average rose a point or so, K-rates sky-rocketed, and walk rates fell. Most times we’d suggest that expansion dilutes pitching, but in the case of our four-team expansion this does not seem to have held.

2034-2035: This time batting average fell a bit, as did K-rates. Walk rates held steady.

2039-2040: Batting average held steady, K-rates rose (but at a rate slow enough to almost discount), and walk rates dropped at a similar low rate. So really, it does not seem that expansion made much of a dent at all during the year it actually occurred. I noted before that the rates of doubles and triples rose in 2040. Since this data show that the batting average across the league was pretty solid, I’d point to the park factor change as the leading culprit here…

But …

You see it, right?

What the hell is up with Batting Average, K-Rate, and BB-Rate in 2041--the year after expansion?

I mean, holy Hellscape, Batman, batting average has taken a stair-step up to .275. The K-rate fell off an almost 1% cliff (note that happened even harder in 2031, too—a year without expansion). The walk rate is also up again in a major stair-step (that also occurred in 2031). My opinion is that the core of our performance changes in 2041 have a lot to do with these three rates.

That this stair-step occurs strongly suggest to me that—while all these other things (parks, ratings drifts, erosion of pitchers, mega-draft classes, et al) certainly make a difference—that we’re going to need a bigger boat. That there is something much bigger out there that has mashed the game engine, and that perhaps whatever it is also did its magic in 2031 (when I also note, we saw another big bump in offense).

I guess it is possible that the combination of all the little things has resulted in one big wave of change, but I admit I don’t know. It’s weird, really.


LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE:

Ultimately, as many are saying, I still suggest it will just settle out. That’s what happened in 2032, after all. But I do think it will be a good idea to do some game engine tweaking in the off-season, at least do some review of the league totals and PCMs.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by bschr682 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:51 pm

how many park factors have even changed in the last 2 seasons? obviously the 2 new ballparks for the expansion teams but what else?
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:56 pm

I don't have a full list of them super handy right now, but we tend to get 3-6 parks that either get built or renovated each year. I track them each year, but don't usually save them off. This last year or so I had. I can probably find some others in my logs.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by bschr682 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:09 pm

quick glance (very quick might have missed) shows the 2 expansion teams, Boise, Chicago, and Cali in the last 2 years. Cali went back to more of a pitchers park. I think Chicago's park is far more pitcher friendly than Huntsville was. So I dunno what to make of that.
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Re: Yearly Averages

Post by RonCo » Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 am

bschr682 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:09 pm
quick glance (very quick might have missed) shows the 2 expansion teams, Boise, Chicago, and Cali in the last 2 years. Cali went back to more of a pitchers park. I think Chicago's park is far more pitcher friendly than Huntsville was. So I dunno what to make of that.
I think you're right.

Per my records (which I think are good, but I could have missed something), in 2040/2041 we had:

- Portland and Charlotte's parks came into the league, boosting doubles and dropping homers.
- Chicago move to a new park (from Huntsville), which dropped average just a touch, and HRs. Kept extra base hits steady.
- California bump up average, doubles, and triples. HR very gently down.
- Boise bumped average, doubles, and triples, and dropped HR a bit.

I think I've mis-assigned some of these between 2040 and 2041 in the charts above, but the overall assessment is the same. Across the league, that park factors for Average, Doubles and Triples has risen, and the factors for HRs have fallen.
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