I’ve recently seen several guys commenting about how bad the trade market is these days, usually in the form of “I’ve got < Insert Superstar X > on the market, and (either) the phone doesn’t ring (or) all I get are shit offers.”
I think maybe it’s time to talk about the trade market in terms of marginal value, team positioning, organizational goals, and whatnot.
By this I mean … well … I dunno, let’s just give this a wing a see where it goes.
For purposes of this conversation, I’m going to use Omaha’s Justin Jackson. I’m choosing him merely because he’s the last guy I’ve seen noted this way, in this case by Justin on Slack: "He may talk himself into just getting resigned as I am surprised I haven't had many people interested in acquiring him.”
Please note: I like Justin Jackson as a player. It makes some sense that Omaha might be scratching their head at the lack of action on him. This is not written to downgrade or in any way belittle Justin Jackson. If anything, perhaps it will help the Hawks move him. I dunno. But let's dive into the situation around Justin Jackson and the Hawks' efforts to move him.
Player Overview:
Jackson just turned 27. He’s in the last year of a contract that pays him $10M, and will be looking for probably more than that for a multi-season deal. He’s sitting at .9 WAR right now, projecting to 2.3 WAR. Last season’s comp pick qualifiers were 3.0 WAR and 1.4 WAR. So if Justin Niles does noting, the Hawks should be able to pocket a second round sandwich pick—which effectively sets the floor for what an acceptable offer should be.
Doing a double check, this is probably a fair enough projection. Jackson has only made it over 3.0 WAR twice in his career, the last time being 2039. This is partially because Jackson is now a bad outfielder, having posted about a -12 ZR over the last three seasons in left field. Given that he’s 27, that’s not going to get better, a fact I assume has caused Omaha to plant him in the DH role this year.
Still, he’s OPS+ing at a +123, so he’s got some value on the field. He's a good hitter.
The bottom line here, though, is what his trade value? I mean, where would Joe put him in his annual list?
Omaha’s Alternatives
As noted, assuming Omaha does not trade Jackson, they are likely to receive a second-round pick when the guy leaves. The alternative is to sign him to three or four years for $10M+, which would run him up to age 30 or 31. Given the Hawks’ are 26-34, dead last in the Heartland division, it’s pretty clear that the team isn’t going anywhere, so his production value to the team is not particularly high—though he is popular, so maybe there are a few dollars at stake if he’s traded.
So, yes, it makes sense to put his name on the block.
Is it wise to extend Jackson?
You can argue me on this one, but at his root, you’d say Jackson looks like he should project to create 2-2.5 WAR for the next few years. If you value FA WAR at $3M per (which some seem to use, though admittedly I like $2.5M better), that says Jackson’s market value is between $6M-$7.5M per year. (I’ll make a comp to RHB 28 yo Luis Costello, who YS9 signed for about $8.5M/3 last year). If a team pays the $10M Jackson is reportedly asking for, they are probably paying a premium—which is fine, especially if you’re talking about scarcity.
At question, of course, is whether a RHB 2-2.5WAR DH is scarce.
I'd say 27-yo RHB DHs are not worth a scarcity bonus, but I admit that's my view and may not reflect the voting public. Another way of saying this is that I think Justin Jackson will go for less that $10M/4 in the free agent market. I could, of course, be wrong!
Omaha’s goals
I think it’s fair to say that Hawk GM Justin would like to get a real prospect or two for Jackson. I mean, look at those green bars! I suspect the team would consider an offer of mid-second round value as a crappy offer, even though it’s a step up from what they will get when Jackson leaves.
So herein lies the first problem: How many teams need a 2-2.5WAR RHB DH enough to give up the value Omaha’s likely attached to Jackson?
Trade Partner Summary, with Projections
I’m going to append conversations about every team in the league at the bottom of this post so you can see where my brain is at, but at the end of the day I think there are really only four places Justin Jackson is a real candidate to wind up in, so in my mind, these four teams essentially define the realistic trade market for Justin Jackson. These are:
- Rockville
- Charm City
- Nashville
- Valencia
So, really, the only team in the league that has a clear situation where adding Justin Jackson makes clear practical sense is Rockville, who would add him to essentially top off the engine as they run for another post season. As noted below, however, the question is price and valuation. My guess is that Aaron doesn't plan to give mid-first-round value for Justin Jackson, so I'm projecting a No Deal here, too, even though there is a logical path why one would happen.
Final Projection: In the end, my gut feel is that Justin Jackson will finish the year in Omaha, but if he moves it will be because either Nashville or Charm City is still fully in the race as we move out of June.
I should note that there are several other teams for whom the addition of Justin Jackson might represent an improvement, so who are candidates for trade partners. In each of these cases, however, there seem to be some solid inertia working against a deal happening. The teams in question are: Seattle, Brooklyn, Montreal, Atlantic City, and Mexico City.
Overall Commentary
Herein lies the thing. A GM today puts a name player on the market, and is shocked when people don’t beat down the door for him. But the fact is that in almost all these cases, I’d suggest the market for that player is far smaller than the average fan thinks it is. In Justin Jackson’s case, the realistic market is four teams, and the true market is likely only one.
This is not because Justin Jackson isn’t a good player. He is a solid 2-2.5 WAR guy.
Do that same analysis for most players on the market and you'll likely come up with a similar situation. For deals to happen, "opportunity" has to meet price. And I think there are several things happening today in the BBA that are shaping both opportunity and price, hence defining the trade market we live in.
- After several years of deep talent draft classes, many teams, including contenders, have young talent coming up the chain. This immediately takes them out of the market for aging stars.
- The aging curve has shifted left, so us GMs probably need to keep in mind that a 27-year-old player is likely degrading. GMs who see it that way, will remove themselves from the trade market for players hedging toward 27-28, or will reduce the price they are willing to pay.
- With more good players going to Free Agency, marginal teams are less needy in the trade market. Several teams could use Justin Jackson, but why give up a prospect for him when we have a reasonable chance to get him for $8M-$10M next year without losing anything.
- All of these things serve to reduce value a GM can receive in return for a star player, but us BBA GMs with a few miles on our treads are still operating with the old tapes.
For example, I personally like to use $2.5M/WAR as my first rule of thumb. I’ve heard other GMs starting at $3M or $4M. I start devaluing players at 27-28 years old, but I know others start more at 30. Fred is a Contact Guy. Matt is a Movement Maven. There are guys who plan, GMs who run off the fly, etc. etc. etc.
Add it all together, and it’s amazing that trades ever happen, right?
Anyway, what I’m saying here is that when you start hearing established GMs around the league saying “the trade market sucks!” you know that something has fundamentally changed. I’m suggesting that folks who care about it, start taking a look under the hood, and deciding for themselves what’s happening—because the trade market probably does actually suck right now. That means to make a deal will probably take some extra work. In addition, we all know the market will not always suck, and how you answer that question will help you project out into the future.
Trade Partner Review
Let’s run through the divisions going from the bottom up, starting in the Pacific:
Portland is full-bore youth, with 21-year-old Jorge Lopez and 20-year-old Faical Engeitado in LF and at RHB DH. Both of these guys are on min-sal, and are arguably better situations for the team than Jackson over the next couple years. Need = None
Hawaii has Ettienne Lafitte in the DH slot signed through 2045. Lafitte is one of the premier DHs in the league. Twenty-year-old Bastiao Fardos is min-sal and arguably perched to become a better player than Jackson. So, no.
San Fernando might well value Jackson above 23-year-old rookie Reynaldo Rivera, but they have some serious money issues, and one would think Randy might be more inclined to pay for a pitcher or two over a hitter. One can argue that Avila projects to be as productive as Jackson, also, but he’s going to need to prove something there…still, there’s a chance.
Valencia: Let’s see…Ramon Pagan is in left, and the LHB DH is Ed Curren, both of whom Jackson is probably not going to displace. The DH slot vs. LHP could be an upgrade, but at $10M a year, is Jackson the answer? I think not, but rational minds can disagree, and in this case, since the club has a little prospect power to consider, I’ll actually call them a candidate.
Long Beach: Pedro Avila is 23 in LF, and Gonzalo Martinez is 20 at DH. Both are at minimum salary and both project to out-perform Jackson. No opportunity here.
Seattle: The Storm have a real need that Jackson could fill. At 33-28, they are flirting with a playoff slot, but are also close to the edge of the salary cap. Of equal importance, the Storm are one of the oldest teams in the league (27.52 years). It’s possible that GM Nathan Egan might would be willing to make a deadline splash in hopes of stealing a post season at the end of a run. On the other hand, the club still has that pitching, so maybe he’s looking to extend it. Let’s call Seattle a possible trade partner, but probably a tenuous one.
California: The Crusaders could certainly use a professional RHB in the DH slot. The issue, however, is cash. There’s every chance that a salary retention thing could move Jackson to California, but it would almost certainly have to be for one of those crappy rental deals, because old shoeless would almost certainly not extend Jackson…I mean, all the Cali-Cash is tied up in pitchers, and for damned good reason. So, let’s call California intellectually possible, but not actually viable without some acrobatics. In other words, I’ll say just say “no.”
Vancouver: Jackson is not going to supplant Fernando Castillo. One could argue Jackson would make the Mounties better if he DHed against LHP, but you can’t say that with 23-year-old Masaki Sato hitting against RHP. So, again, $10M a year for a short-side platoon DH. I’d say no.
Now let’s move to the Heartland:
Madison has the financial resources available and the “need” for Jackson’s skillset. But they are in a deep rebuild. Are they going to actually give value for Jackson? I mean, sure, if he’s out there in the market, I’d guess GM Mike would make a cash on the barrelhead offer, but, I can’t see how he’d want to give prospects for him. I mean, Wolve fans are gullible, but even they might mutiny at that.
Des Moines has better, cheaper options in place right now, with 22-year-old Hector Cruz in LF and 23-year-old Luis De La Cruz at DH. Add the fact that Ed is shackled with a budget below the salary cap, and no, I can’t see him giving up prospects for Justin Jackson.
Twin Cities is already shackled with Ray Cooper in left for another year, and 21-year-old Jose Calderon is projecting to 1.7 WAR at DH. Technically, Jackson is a near-term update, but the River Monsters are playing for 2043 or so. Maybe Scott Piccoli will prove me wrong, but I don’t’ see them as a practical trade partner.
In Chicago, Vic Caleca has 24-year-old Fernando Reyes in LF and 24-year-old Tommy Cochrane at DH. They are in arb years, but are still cheaper than Jackson. So, no. I can’t see Vinnie letting Vic keep his job if he gives up value for Justin Jackson.
Nashville: Here’s an actual candidate, I suppose. Deortez at DH looks like he’s about done, and the Commish’s Bluebirds are in the hunt. They are close enough financially that something could be finagled, and the Nashville farm system is weak enough that the club might be willing to take the age risk an extension of Jackson could bring. Matt is also a wild-west dealer.
Louisville: With Hugh Mangrouthormone at DH, and either Lorenzo Bueno or Theo Bourges in left, I can’t see Shaw having any real interest in a $10M Jackson. It’s fair that Bueno and Borges are LHB, though. And it’s possible to catch Shaw on a multi-day drunk. Still. No.
Yellow Springs: 22-year-old Mark Haynes is the RHB DH, and I can report with certainty that the Nine front office does not see Jackson patrolling the outfield in one of our uniforms anytime soon.
So, there we have the Frick League. Nashville, Valencia, and Seattle are probably the only real candidates for trade. Valencia is borderline, and Seattle is probably not looking to pay a long-term price.
Looking at the Johnson Atlantic:
Charlotte, as can be expected, could use Justin Jackson. At question is whether a bottom-dwelling expansion team is interested in giving value for the honor of laying out $10M/4 for a DH. I’d guess no, but you can argue with me, though. It’s be worth a PM, I suppose, but Jackson doesn’t really seem to fit The Plan.
Brooklyn: Jackson isn’t supplanting 21-year-old star Fernando Vega in left anytime soon. Maybe he’d fit in the RHB DH role. There’s lots of cap space there, and while there isn’t a lot in the system, it’s not barren. So, yes, Brooklyn is a candidate, though it might be a year too early for Alan to pull the trigger? I’ll count them in the pile, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t put cash on Jackson wearing a Robins uniform.
Jacksonville has no money, though the team could probably stuff Jackson into left field in hopes the ball doesn’t go there. Rule 5er Raul Valdez is in the spot now. Given the Hurricanes are 26-34, though, I’d think Tyler is window shopping more than anything else.
Montreal is another viable trade candidate. At 30-30, they might be tempted to make a deal, too. On the other hand, Kevin MacKeith is workable, and several of their better prospects are RHB corner oufielders—so how much depth would new GM Jeffrey Drummond be willing to part with for a DH, and is this the year to do it? For my crystal ball, I’d say the Blazers would be in on the bidding if Jackson goes FA, but less likely to move value to acquire him today. We’ll see what happens.
Charm City (30-30) is competing and sit 2-games out of a wild card spot, but recently picked up Oliverio Luna on a cheap deal to sit in their DH slot. Cipriano Martinez plays left, and Jackson would be an upgrade on him. They have money, and they have budget. They also have a few guys on the farm. So the equation here is whether to give away a piece of the future for a 2-2.5 WAR player. Possible.
In Atlantic City you’ve got Juan Rivera in left field, so screw that opportunity. You could drop Jackson into the DH slot where today you have Adrian Salazar and Rupert Grant. GM Joshua has salary cap available, but is on a tight budget, so there’s a little risk there if he opens the pocketbook for Justin Jackson. The other wild card in the mix here is that, if Biddle wants to take a bit of a gamble, he’s got Jack Cox, a RH 1B in A-Ball, who might be able to handle DHing vs. LHP (which is what Jackson would do). At 34-27, Atlantic City is a team who might be willing to make a move, though.
If Jackson winds up in New Orleans, he’d not replace Virgil Shafer in left, so he’d have to be a DH. Which, with 24-year-old Eduardo Garcia in there now, is possible. Garcia is a guy who projects to put up about 1.5 WAR in a full time role, so Jackson would be an upgrade. Garcia makes $500K, though, and the question is whether that extra half a WAR or so is worth $9.5M plus a prospect or two. Add the fact that the team has Raul Fernandes (23) and Bratislev Marousek (24) to handle RHB 1B/DH, and the answer is probably “no.”
Rockville has left field covers, and Lorenzo Palacios DHing against RHP, this leaves Jackson’s utility to shortside platoon at DH. They do have a little money, and they do have a lot of prospect grunt. If Aaron decides he wants Jackson he can get it done. So, yes, there’s a candidate for a trade partner here. The question, of course, is price and valuation. As noted in the front of this essay, I’d guess Justin wants “real” prospects. I’m uncertain whether Aaron will value a Jackson add with that kind of compensation.
Moving to the Frontier…
We start with the Aviators in Wichita, who have already begun to make their plans for vacation in October. Clearly they could use a bat like Justin Jackson, but do you think there’s a serious advantage to giving something up for him? Beyond that, the finances are a mess in Wichita. They have no money, so barring a deal that Omaha absorbs contracts (which means, I’d assume, Wichita pays more in prospects), I don’t see a real logic for the Aviators to go full Jackson.
San Antonio’s DH is 23-year-old Tony Hernandez. Hernandez is better than Justin Jackson. Their left fielder is 23-year-old Valentin Fitas. Fitas is better than Jackson. So, no.
The defending champion, Las Vegas, is in the middle of taking a post-coital dump, but they’ve got this kid they call “the Italian” at DH. They’ve also got Mitch Dalrymple and Bernando Bouliosa platooning in LF. Jackson would be a gentle upgrade over Bouliosa, but heavy on the gentle. Given the hustler’s financial profile for the next three seasons, I can’t see a reason they’d be pounding on the door to bring Justin Jackson into the fold.
Mexico City has Augie Plascencia in the DH slot, so Jackson would have to play LF. Juan Rocha is currently in left. Rocha is under-performing expectation, but is 24 and cheap. That said, Fred Holmes has (just barely) the cap space. He’d struggle with budget if the deal didn’t bring financial relief, and at 30-30, the team is in a 5-club scrum for the last Johnson Wild Card. The last bit is that Jackson doesn’t feel like a Fred Holmes kind of player. I’ll call the Aztecs a candidate, but an unlikely one.
In Edmonton, you’ve got Jose Salas in left and Fernando Cruz DHing. I don’t see Jackson as better than either, so Edmonton is off the list.
Phoenix is a club that is performing well, 33-29, they might be looking for upgrades at the deadline. The issue they have in the quest for Justin Jackson is that they have Bartolo Ortiz in the DH role, and Jose Colon performing in LF vs. RHP. That leaves the question of whether the upgrade Jackson might represent over Long Chamberlain III in LF vs. LHP is worth a deal. Taking a look down into the minors, one sees 20 year old Norihisa Yokoyama is effectively ready to come up any time, and you get the idea that the Talons are not going to be too energetic in the pursuit of Justin Jackson. Let’s call this one a No.
Boise might be willing to part with Dennis French, but Omaha doesn’t need French (heh!). In seriousness, the Spuds have Ricardo Ruiz in left, so that’s not a place for Jackson. They have Drew Hair and an aging Cicso Arreloa handling the DH role, so that might be considered an opportunity. Joe has some cap space available, but with a teensie tiny budget, he’s got some other financial constraints. Without acrobatics, I’d say their hands are tied. There’s also the question of whether a team just moving into their competitive window wants to trade future for a 27-year-old RHB DH. I’m going to call them a “no,” though you’re free to argue with me.
Finally, we come to Calgary, where Juan Karyabwite continues to be an elite defensive LF with a solid bat, and Henry Jones and Walter McConnell are splitting the DH duties. Jackson is probably an upgrade on Jones (vs. LHP, again). The team has cap space, and the team has prospect capital to give. At issue, though, is that Kevin already made a trade or two so that he could open up his signing window to keep guys around. Adding Jackson would add some nominal value to the run today, but a $10M lump in the middle of this plan seems to make that untenable. I’m going to guess Kevin’s a “no” on giving up value for Jackson.