The Trade Market: June 2041

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RonCo
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:51 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:15 am
this, the only thing that might offend me more is when someone asks for a completely ridiculous value for one of their guys.
These are the same thing, really, just to sides of the coin.

Note, though, the passages above regarding the value Justin Jackson represents to Omaha--which is essentially the first pick in the third round of next year's draft. If you make that offer to Justin, I'd guess he'd consider it a ridiculous low-ball offer, whereas if he comes back and asks for a top prospect, someone who views things this way would be justified in saying Justin is asking for a completely ridiculous value in return.
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by aaronweiner » Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:55 am

I got zero offers on Lorenzo Palacios, who is only one of the top ten hitters in the BBA and signed cheap.

That confused me. With 31 teams you'd think someone would need a 5 WAR hitter.

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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by bschr682 » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:50 am

Part of the problem is the incredible amount of young talent we have from those bloated drafts. I expect the wheels of the trade market to start turning again once things settle back down but that’ll probably take 5-6 seasons...
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by ae37jr » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:46 am

Trading is more about supply and demand then player valuations. Just about every team has a corner outfielder on the block or easily available. Heck I just passed Crisci through waivers and he is a mid 20's left handed bat with like an 8 eye, put up 2 war each of the past 2 seasons, solid defense and making the league minimum. Corner outfield, DH, and 1B aren't worth crap right now unless they are super special.
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:54 am

aaronweiner wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:55 am
I got zero offers on Lorenzo Palacios, who is only one of the top ten hitters in the BBA and signed cheap.

That confused me. With 31 teams you'd think someone would need a 5 WAR hitter.
Palacios is underpaid, but not cheap. He also comes with age risk and a long contract. To Alan's point on supply and demand, and to Justin's comments regarding "not needing" Dennis French ... the question probably comes on perceived price vs. marginal value/need. Not that I'm right or wrong, but at one point I considered offering something for him, but I was pretty sure my evaluation of what I would give for him wouldn't be viewed kindly. :)
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:01 am

If he's going to move, Palacios is a guy I would expect to move as a deadline deal made by a team for whom its obvious that an extra game would make a difference.
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:08 am

bschr682 wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:50 am
Part of the problem is the incredible amount of young talent we have from those bloated drafts. I expect the wheels of the trade market to start turning again once things settle back down but that’ll probably take 5-6 seasons...
It might be faster than you're guessing, but, yes. When we first started the glut of good classes, I remember many arguments about how having all these great players around would result in a much better trade market ... but I've never seen a league in which that was ever really true. Tons of young, good players, will pretty much always stifle the trade market for older players -- and a part of it is that we GMs retain our valuations from earlier years.

Aaron's point about Palacious is well-made ... or at least well-earned. Ten seasons ago, Palacious probably would be worth a couple big prospects. But today he's not worth as much unless you can find the -exact- right trade partner. To move him, you have to take less.
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by RonCo » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:13 am

And, of course, when you have a good young player, you prefer not to trade him, either. As in the MLB these days, probably the best time to trade an impact player for value is just before he enters his arbitration years. Francisco Lindor is the example that comes to mind--with everyone pushing him as a guy Cleveland might trade last year because he still had two seasons of control.

The fact that BBA players are asking for more money (and getting it) makes a difference, too. Palacios's team friendly deal would make him more attractive...especially a season or two from now when aging risk was less uncertain--assuming, of course, he hadn't had more ratings hits in that time period.
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by Fat Nige » Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:03 am

Fantastic Ron, great read for those of us that don’t trade much. I rarely do a trade block because 98% of the time anybody that’s any good I’ll want to keep and anyone that’s not it won’t be worth putting up the block as no-one would want them anyway lol
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Re: The Trade Market: June 2041

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:46 pm

Wow - I was gonna say the same thing Ron! NOT!! Great insight - one again the people in this league giving life to players who live in Trons' "Digital Frontier"
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