Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

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Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by jleddy » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:35 am

As I broke down last year at this time, here is a look at the leadoff hitters across the Brewster though the current sim (8/11/40). We'll take a look at which leadoff hitters are doing the best (and worst) at scoring runs using Bill James' leadoff runs expectancy formula.

(NOTE: Like last year, pulling leadoff data from the sortable stats section in the game is misleading, as it accounts for any plate appearances for players who bat in the leadoff spot during any inning, even after taking-over for the starting leadoff hitter due to injury, pinch hitting or as a defensive replacement. For a cutoff for the following analysis, we'll just be looking at the top 50 players in "leadoff" plate appearances through 8/11/40. This cutoff put #50 at 99 leadoff plate appearances and last year's #51 had 100 plate appearances. Additionally, through 8/6/19 in the MLB, 48 players have had at-least 100 leadoff plate appearances so the volume is similar to last season's and the 2019 MLB season.)

Let's first take a look at the top twenty leadoff hitters in runs from the leadoff spot (LOR):

NAMETEAMLO PALOR
Alex Ramírez Wichita 521 90
Dong-po Thum Yellow Springs 526 89
José Zúñiga Jacksonville 429 81
Pedro Díaz Rockville 537 74
Mons Raider Edmonton 421 70
Joaquin Hebner Charm City 545 70
Jorge Rodríguez Des Moines 390 69
Joey Newhouse Nashville 460 68
Quant Kouros Las Vegas 416 65
Ettienne R. LaFitte Hawaii 359 64
Ángel García San Fernando 283 57
Rashardo Menne III Vancouver 355 57
Lúcio Cuellar San Antonio 429 57
Millard Younger Atlantic City 391 56
Gualtiero Crisci Brooklyn 338 53
Juan Santana Phoenix 367 53
Fernando Moreno Mexico City 355 51
Todd Rice Seattle 413 46
Xavier Rangel New Orleans 225 45
David Simpson California 235 45
Traditional counting stats can tell you only so much, so here are is the top twenty in expected runs (xLOR) from the leadoff spot:

NAMETEAML.O. PAxLORLOR Rnk
Alex Ramírez Wichita 521 97.4 1
José Zúñiga Jacksonville 429 96.2 3
Dong-po Thum Yellow Springs 526 96.0 2
Joaquin Hebner Charm City 545 85.1 5
Joey Newhouse Nashville 460 78.3 8
Quant Kouros Las Vegas 416 75.0 9
Mons Raider Edmonton 421 74.9 5
Jorge Rodríguez Des Moines 390 70.4 7
Pedro Díaz Rockville 537 69.6 4
Ettienne R. LaFitte Hawaii 359 68.6 10
Millard Younger Atlantic City 391 64.9 14
Todd Rice Seattle 413 64.5 18
Juan Santana Phoenix 367 61.1 15
Lúcio Cuellar San Antonio 429 57.8 11
Rashardo Menne III Vancouver 355 56.5 11
Gualtiero Crisci Brooklyn 338 52.6 15
Ángel García San Fernando 283 52.3 11
Fernando Moreno Mexico City 355 51.8 17
Aaron Haney Valencia 263 49.4 21
David Simpson California 235 47.5 19
So who's in the top ten of scoring more than expected?

NAMETEAML.O. PALORxLORΔ
Wilson Ford Long Beach 173 27 19.6 7.5
Ángel García San Fernando 283 57 52.3 4.7
Pedro Díaz Rockville 537 74 69.6 4.5
Xavier Rangel New Orleans 225 45 42.0 3.0
Fernando Castillo Vancouver 179 34 32.0 2.0
Luzvimindo Arbizo Charlotte 228 35 33.2 1.8
Reece Wareham New Orleans 164 22 20.4 1.7
Rashardo Menne III Vancouver 355 57 56.5 0.5
Gualtiero Crisci Brooklyn 338 53 52.6 0.4
Jared Gillstrom San Fernando 197 25 25.1 0.0
Ford has the most leadoff runs against his expected leadoff runs, and that's with only the 37th highest leadoff plate appearances...incredible! Ford has incredible speed, which probably is the single-greatest reason for his better-than-expected output. You also can't discount Ford benefiting from having Miguel Suarez hitting behind him in the two-hole, where he's produced a 1.134 OPS in 192 plate appearances. But here is where it gets interesting: Ford has spent most of the year split between batting leadoff (31% of plate appearances) and batting eighth (39%), where he currently is slotted in the Long Beach lineup. Ford's slash line batting leadoff is pretty ugly (.226/.279/.302), whereas the center fielder has thrived in the eight-hole (.294/.354/.371). So while Ford has been a pleasant surprise when he has leadoff an inning, the Surfers have made the right decision to drop him in the lineup.

I love seeing Gillstrom sneak into the top-10, albeit at a break-even result. Gillstrom is the only member in the top ten with sub-par, let alone average, foot speed. However his stealing and base running ratings are elite (and backed by his 93% success rate in 15 attempts.) I'm sure Ron's base running script can show Gillstrom's ability to take extra bases as well. It all adds up to scoring a decent amount of runs despite the 6'7", 275 pound future-Hall of Famer apparently hauling a piano on his back on the base paths.

Normalizing for plate appearance volume, here is the ten-best by xΔ/PA, which doesn't change the names in the top ten, but does show Ford's dominance:

NAMETEAML.O. PALORxLORxΔ/PA
Wilson Ford Long Beach 173 27 19.6 0.043
Ángel García San Fernando 283 57 52.3 0.017
Xavier Rangel New Orleans 225 45 42.0 0.013
Fernando Castillo Vancouver 179 34 32.0 0.011
Reece Wareham New Orleans 164 22 20.4 0.010
Pedro Díaz Rockville 537 74 69.6 0.008
Luzvimindo Arbizo Charlotte 228 35 33.2 0.008
Rashardo Menne III Vancouver 355 57 56.5 0.001
Gualtiero Crisci Brooklyn 338 53 52.6 0.001
Jared Gillstrom San Fernando 197 25 25.1 0.000
Here are the slackers leading off, scoring less than expected:

NAMETEAML.O. PALORxLORΔ
Todd Rice Seattle 413 46 64.5 -18.5
José Zúñiga Jacksonville 429 81 96.2 -15.2
Joaquin Hebner Charm City 545 70 85.1 -15.1
Joey Newhouse Nashville 460 68 78.3 -10.3
Quant Kouros Las Vegas 416 65 75.0 -10.0
Sancho Castillo Charlotte 197 18 27.9 -9.9
Millard Younger Atlantic City 391 56 64.9 -8.8
Hedde Veenman Portland 171 20 28.7 -8.7
Juan Santana Phoenix 367 53 61.1 -8.1
Alex Ramírez Wichita 521 90 97.4 -7.4
Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd-Todd...tsk tsk tsk. By now we're all aware of Seattle's surprisingly disappointing season. Could Todd's underperformance scoring runs out of the lead off spot be one of the reasons? Quite possibly. But further examination shows Rice has hit well atop the lineup (.343/.383/.457) and possess outstanding speed and base running ability (although he's at a sub-optimal 69% success rating when stealing.) Maybe the bigger issue is Rice's supporting cast: Michael Durham (79+ OPS in 345 PA batting #2) and John Hickman (81 OPS+ in 351 PA batting #3) has been below league-average at their respective spots in the lineup. Zúñiga has been an on-base machine (.432 OBP leading off) given his outstanding batting abilities, however being one of the slowest (1 rating in speed) and worst runners (1 ratings in stealing and base running) likely is the reason for his underachieving.

Normalizing for plate appearance volume, here is the ten-worst by xΔ/PA:

NAMETEAML.O. PALORxLORxΔ/PA
Hedde Veenman Portland 171 20 28.7 -0.051
Sancho Castillo Charlotte 197 18 27.9 -0.050
Todd Rice Seattle 413 46 64.5 -0.045
Mark Simpson Chicago 168 24 31.3 -0.043
Ramón Pagán Valencia 183 33 39.5 -0.036
José Zúñiga Jacksonville 429 81 96.2 -0.035
Gerardo Guzmán Des Moines 127 14 17.9 -0.030
Jayden Harsnett Portland 169 15 19.9 -0.029
Joaquin Hebner Charm City 545 70 85.1 -0.028
Po-sin Shi California 167 18 22.6 -0.027
Hope you enjoy and I look forward to any additional analysis. Below you'll find the spreadsheet of whole BBA with at least one at-bat leading off.

2040 BBA Leadoff Statistics 8.11.40.xlsx
(45.88 KiB) Downloaded 33 times
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by usnspecialist » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:42 am

Interesting that both Vancouver and myself take up 2 of the top 10 in "more than expected". wonder if that speaks to the quality of the guys behind them as well.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by jleddy » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:45 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:42 am
Interesting that both Vancouver and myself take up 2 of the top 10 in "more than expected". wonder if that speaks to the quality of the guys behind them as well.
More than likely...great observation. Like runs batted in, scoring runs is heavily reliant on the offensive environment the player is in.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by GoldenOne » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:51 am

jleddy wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:45 am
usnspecialist wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:42 am
Interesting that both Vancouver and myself take up 2 of the top 10 in "more than expected". wonder if that speaks to the quality of the guys behind them as well.
More than likely...great observation. Like runs batted in, scoring runs is heavily reliant on the offensive environment the player is in.
Concur. Castillo is having a pretty good year but the guys swinging the tennis rackets behind him dont help him all too much.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by shoeless.db » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:15 am

I'll be honest, I didn't even want to look at this due to David Simpson not being a traditional leadoff hitter. I feared the numbers would force me to move him out of that spot and back to the two or three hole where his abilities are better suited. Unfortunately, on a purely speculative level as I'm still living as a 14 year old who has his dad as his math teacher and, therefor, like to think of analytics as uncool and embarrassing, my sims go fantastic with Simpson in the leadoff spot and seem to be awful when I move him to second or third in the order. Ugh... maybe I should research this...
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by RonCo » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:12 am

Definitely a fun feature. It would be interesting to follow this from year to year to see if a skill really existed. I'm sure someone has done that somewhere.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by JimBob2232 » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:44 am

So you’re saying Rangel should be my lead off hitter eh?

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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by RonCo » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:57 am

I wonder how much 0, 1, and 2-out plate appearances influence runs vs.expected runs.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by 7teen » Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:41 pm

Portland doesn’t have a true leadoff guy. I’ve been rotating some guys in and out. Probably why Mick’s RBI totals are down as well.

Veenman is a modern day guy with a low average, but a high Eye and Power.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:23 am

Not a Wolve to be found anywhere top 10 or bottom 10.
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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by JimBob2232 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:33 am

CTBrewCrew wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:23 am
Not a Wolve to be found anywhere top 10 or bottom 10.
Solidly average.

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Re: Who's the Leader in Leading Off? (Updated for 2040)

Post by udlb58 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:54 pm

Is Ford being so far above expected a sign of him playing well, or a sign of him being lucky?

I'd agree that Zuniga is probably scoring less than expected partly because of his lack of baserunning ability, but I think the main reason is that Noboru spent a lot of time in the #2 spot and he's been just average this year.
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