As I broke down last year at this time, here is a look at the leadoff hitters across the Brewster though the current sim (8/11/40). We'll take a look at which leadoff hitters are doing the best (and worst) at scoring runs using Bill James' leadoff runs expectancy formula.
(NOTE: Like last year, pulling leadoff data from the sortable stats section in the game is misleading, as it accounts for any plate appearances for players who bat in the leadoff spot during any inning, even after taking-over for the starting leadoff hitter due to injury, pinch hitting or as a defensive replacement. For a cutoff for the following analysis, we'll just be looking at the top 50 players in "leadoff" plate appearances through 8/11/40. This cutoff put #50 at 99 leadoff plate appearances and last year's #51 had 100 plate appearances. Additionally, through 8/6/19 in the MLB, 48 players have had at-least 100 leadoff plate appearances so the volume is similar to last season's and the 2019 MLB season.)
Let's first take a look at the top twenty leadoff hitters in runs from the leadoff spot (LOR):
NAME | TEAM | LO PA | LOR |
Alex Ramírez | Wichita | 521 | 90 |
Dong-po Thum | Yellow Springs | 526 | 89 |
José Zúñiga | Jacksonville | 429 | 81 |
Pedro Díaz | Rockville | 537 | 74 |
Mons Raider | Edmonton | 421 | 70 |
Joaquin Hebner | Charm City | 545 | 70 |
Jorge Rodríguez | Des Moines | 390 | 69 |
Joey Newhouse | Nashville | 460 | 68 |
Quant Kouros | Las Vegas | 416 | 65 |
Ettienne R. LaFitte | Hawaii | 359 | 64 |
Ángel García | San Fernando | 283 | 57 |
Rashardo Menne III | Vancouver | 355 | 57 |
Lúcio Cuellar | San Antonio | 429 | 57 |
Millard Younger | Atlantic City | 391 | 56 |
Gualtiero Crisci | Brooklyn | 338 | 53 |
Juan Santana | Phoenix | 367 | 53 |
Fernando Moreno | Mexico City | 355 | 51 |
Todd Rice | Seattle | 413 | 46 |
Xavier Rangel | New Orleans | 225 | 45 |
David Simpson | California | 235 | 45 |
Traditional counting stats can tell you only so much, so here are is the top twenty in expected runs (xLOR) from the leadoff spot:
NAME | TEAM | L.O. PA | xLOR | LOR Rnk |
Alex Ramírez | Wichita | 521 | 97.4 | 1 |
José Zúñiga | Jacksonville | 429 | 96.2 | 3 |
Dong-po Thum | Yellow Springs | 526 | 96.0 | 2 |
Joaquin Hebner | Charm City | 545 | 85.1 | 5 |
Joey Newhouse | Nashville | 460 | 78.3 | 8 |
Quant Kouros | Las Vegas | 416 | 75.0 | 9 |
Mons Raider | Edmonton | 421 | 74.9 | 5 |
Jorge Rodríguez | Des Moines | 390 | 70.4 | 7 |
Pedro Díaz | Rockville | 537 | 69.6 | 4 |
Ettienne R. LaFitte | Hawaii | 359 | 68.6 | 10 |
Millard Younger | Atlantic City | 391 | 64.9 | 14 |
Todd Rice | Seattle | 413 | 64.5 | 18 |
Juan Santana | Phoenix | 367 | 61.1 | 15 |
Lúcio Cuellar | San Antonio | 429 | 57.8 | 11 |
Rashardo Menne III | Vancouver | 355 | 56.5 | 11 |
Gualtiero Crisci | Brooklyn | 338 | 52.6 | 15 |
Ángel García | San Fernando | 283 | 52.3 | 11 |
Fernando Moreno | Mexico City | 355 | 51.8 | 17 |
Aaron Haney | Valencia | 263 | 49.4 | 21 |
David Simpson | California | 235 | 47.5 | 19 |
So who's in the top ten of scoring more than expected?
NAME | TEAM | L.O. PA | LOR | xLOR | Δ |
Wilson Ford | Long Beach | 173 | 27 | 19.6 | 7.5 |
Ángel García | San Fernando | 283 | 57 | 52.3 | 4.7 |
Pedro Díaz | Rockville | 537 | 74 | 69.6 | 4.5 |
Xavier Rangel | New Orleans | 225 | 45 | 42.0 | 3.0 |
Fernando Castillo | Vancouver | 179 | 34 | 32.0 | 2.0 |
Luzvimindo Arbizo | Charlotte | 228 | 35 | 33.2 | 1.8 |
Reece Wareham | New Orleans | 164 | 22 | 20.4 | 1.7 |
Rashardo Menne III | Vancouver | 355 | 57 | 56.5 | 0.5 |
Gualtiero Crisci | Brooklyn | 338 | 53 | 52.6 | 0.4 |
Jared Gillstrom | San Fernando | 197 | 25 | 25.1 | 0.0 |
Ford has the most leadoff runs against his expected leadoff runs, and that's with only the 37th highest leadoff plate appearances...incredible! Ford has incredible speed, which probably is the single-greatest reason for his better-than-expected output. You also can't discount Ford benefiting from having Miguel Suarez hitting behind him in the two-hole, where he's produced a 1.134 OPS in 192 plate appearances. But here is where it gets interesting: Ford has spent most of the year split between batting leadoff (31% of plate appearances) and batting eighth (39%), where he currently is slotted in the Long Beach lineup. Ford's slash line batting leadoff is pretty ugly (.226/.279/.302), whereas the center fielder has thrived in the eight-hole (.294/.354/.371). So while Ford has been a pleasant surprise when he has leadoff an inning, the Surfers have made the right decision to drop him in the lineup.
I love seeing Gillstrom sneak into the top-10, albeit at a break-even result. Gillstrom is the only member in the top ten with sub-par, let alone average, foot speed. However his stealing and base running ratings are elite (and backed by his 93% success rate in 15 attempts.) I'm sure
Ron's base running script can show Gillstrom's ability to take extra bases as well. It all adds up to scoring a decent amount of runs despite the 6'7", 275 pound future-Hall of Famer apparently hauling a piano on his back on the base paths.
Normalizing for plate appearance volume, here is the ten-best by xΔ/PA, which doesn't change the names in the top ten, but does show Ford's dominance:
NAME | TEAM | L.O. PA | LOR | xLOR | xΔ/PA |
Wilson Ford | Long Beach | 173 | 27 | 19.6 | 0.043 |
Ángel García | San Fernando | 283 | 57 | 52.3 | 0.017 |
Xavier Rangel | New Orleans | 225 | 45 | 42.0 | 0.013 |
Fernando Castillo | Vancouver | 179 | 34 | 32.0 | 0.011 |
Reece Wareham | New Orleans | 164 | 22 | 20.4 | 0.010 |
Pedro Díaz | Rockville | 537 | 74 | 69.6 | 0.008 |
Luzvimindo Arbizo | Charlotte | 228 | 35 | 33.2 | 0.008 |
Rashardo Menne III | Vancouver | 355 | 57 | 56.5 | 0.001 |
Gualtiero Crisci | Brooklyn | 338 | 53 | 52.6 | 0.001 |
Jared Gillstrom | San Fernando | 197 | 25 | 25.1 | 0.000 |
Here are the slackers leading off, scoring less than expected:
NAME | TEAM | L.O. PA | LOR | xLOR | Δ |
Todd Rice | Seattle | 413 | 46 | 64.5 | -18.5 |
José Zúñiga | Jacksonville | 429 | 81 | 96.2 | -15.2 |
Joaquin Hebner | Charm City | 545 | 70 | 85.1 | -15.1 |
Joey Newhouse | Nashville | 460 | 68 | 78.3 | -10.3 |
Quant Kouros | Las Vegas | 416 | 65 | 75.0 | -10.0 |
Sancho Castillo | Charlotte | 197 | 18 | 27.9 | -9.9 |
Millard Younger | Atlantic City | 391 | 56 | 64.9 | -8.8 |
Hedde Veenman | Portland | 171 | 20 | 28.7 | -8.7 |
Juan Santana | Phoenix | 367 | 53 | 61.1 | -8.1 |
Alex Ramírez | Wichita | 521 | 90 | 97.4 | -7.4 |
Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd-Todd...tsk tsk tsk. By now we're all aware of Seattle's surprisingly disappointing season. Could Todd's underperformance scoring runs out of the lead off spot be one of the reasons? Quite possibly. But further examination shows Rice has hit well atop the lineup (.343/.383/.457) and possess outstanding speed and base running ability (although he's at a sub-optimal 69% success rating when stealing.) Maybe the bigger issue is Rice's supporting cast: Michael Durham (79+ OPS in 345 PA batting #2) and John Hickman (81 OPS+ in 351 PA batting #3) has been below league-average at their respective spots in the lineup. Zúñiga has been an on-base machine (.432 OBP leading off) given his outstanding batting abilities, however being one of the slowest (1 rating in speed) and worst runners (1 ratings in stealing and base running) likely is the reason for his underachieving.
Normalizing for plate appearance volume, here is the ten-worst by xΔ/PA:
NAME | TEAM | L.O. PA | LOR | xLOR | xΔ/PA |
Hedde Veenman | Portland | 171 | 20 | 28.7 | -0.051 |
Sancho Castillo | Charlotte | 197 | 18 | 27.9 | -0.050 |
Todd Rice | Seattle | 413 | 46 | 64.5 | -0.045 |
Mark Simpson | Chicago | 168 | 24 | 31.3 | -0.043 |
Ramón Pagán | Valencia | 183 | 33 | 39.5 | -0.036 |
José Zúñiga | Jacksonville | 429 | 81 | 96.2 | -0.035 |
Gerardo Guzmán | Des Moines | 127 | 14 | 17.9 | -0.030 |
Jayden Harsnett | Portland | 169 | 15 | 19.9 | -0.029 |
Joaquin Hebner | Charm City | 545 | 70 | 85.1 | -0.028 |
Po-sin Shi | California | 167 | 18 | 22.6 | -0.027 |
Hope you enjoy and I look forward to any additional analysis. Below you'll find the spreadsheet of whole BBA with at least one at-bat leading off.