YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

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YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by RonCo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:06 pm

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Back in 2029, current Nine pitching coach Alberto Sanchez won 20 games for the team. Before that Leon Magdayao turned the same trick in 2016. They are the only two pitchers in franchise history to achieve that lofty number. Crash LaLoosh did not. Nor did Jose Chavez. Mingo Boone, Eduardo Lopez, or Moses Tallchief. Nope. Not even oldest school guys like Marcellus Conley managed to pull it off.

Today, however, as the calendar turns to August, people are beginning to talk; and what they are saying is that intelligent fans should keep their eyes on YS9 pitchers Carlos Valle (14-4, 2.81: recently named the league’s Pitcher of the Month of July), and Ernesto Ramos (14-4, 2.43: the BBA’s Pitcher of the Month of April and May).

The Win is a fickle stat, of course. It shifts and warps and has merits of debatable value. It has changed during the league’s history just as it’s changed in that other fake league some call the MLB. Other stats are better at predicting future performance, they say, and I figure that’s so well proven to be true that it doesn’t really need any backing today.

Yet, while other stats are better at predicting future performance, there is still something magical about the win—especially when it builds toward certain numbers. And beyond that, there’s an element of seasonal narrative that goes with the number that is 20 wins. You do not, after all find very many crappy pitchers posting 20-win seasons, right? I mean, sure, you can luck into a few wins here and there, but how often does an untoward pitcher just happen to fall into a 20-win season, right?

And, in that light, rarely do you find two of them on the same team and in the same year.

So, when I noted Ramos and Valle’s work, I got interested. All right, I said to myself, just how often does it happen that two pitchers on the same team win 20 games in a season. The answer, of course, is dependent upon where you look/


THREE TIMES A CHARM?

Scanning over team records, the first fun finding is that there have been four occasions inside the BBA of teams with not two, but three 20-game winners. All of them are pre-1999 and three of those were prior to the 1994 break:
  • Nashville: 1975 (Steve Nebraska, Jamaal Jumboni, Ryan Dunn)
  • Seattle: 1979 (Denny Estrada, Alonso Cruz, Jerry Syed)
  • San Fernando: 1989 (Steve Nebraska, Avagadro Pompeii, Matt Ryan)
  • Las Vegas: 1997 (Christopher Stoller, Michael Shellenbarger, Johnny Madorin)
Pretty cool, right?

I should note that of these teams, only Nashville’s 1975 team (then the Washington Bobwhites), managed to take the Landis. The other three clubs did not even make it to the Landis finals—which perhaps suggests the idea of a team with three aces being “built for the post season” is a bit overblown?

Who’s to say, right? I mean, all of these four events were in the wild west days of the league, when starters were started and wins were wins. And at the end of the day, those three non-Landis winners did all take their divisions, at least. Regardless, three 20-game winners on a staff seems like it’s both very good, and very rare these days. It hasn’t happened in 43 seasons.


So, what about two, eh?

I mean, that’s what started me down this path, after all. How often do we find a staff with two 20-game winners? Is it really that rare?

Again, the answer depends on where you look.

For example, (counting the 3-man occurrences) it happened 12 times in the 21 season, pre-modern era
  • Mexico City: 1975: (Ace Holder, Corey Aubrey)
  • Nashville: 1975 (Steve Nebraska, Jamaal Jumboni, Ryan Dunn)
  • New Orleans: 1975 (Pablo Verlohi, Voo Fowler)
  • Nashville: 1976 (Steve Nebraska, Jamaal Jumboni, Andy Messersmith)
  • Nashville: 1978 (Steve Nebraska, Andy Messersmith)
  • Nashville: 1979 (Steve Nebraska, Andy Messersmith)
  • Omaha: 1979 (Vernon Meyer, Frank Rogers)
  • Seattle: 1979 (Denny Estrada, Alonso Cruz, Jerry Syed)
  • Brooklyn: 1984 (Mark Fidrych, Mark Bobovnik)
  • San Fernando: 1987 (Steve Nebraska, Matt Ryan)
  • New Orleans: 1988 (Bill Max, Henry Ellis)
  • San Fernando: 1989 (Steve Nebraska, Avagadro Pompeii, Matt Ryan)
In addition to the 1975 Nashville team I noted in the last segment, the 1978 Nashville team took the Landis, as did the 1988 New Orleans Crawdads. Otherwise, the other nine representatives here mostly didn’t even make it to the Landis. So there’s another chink in the argument that says a couple aces up the sleeve makes for championship teams. Only 3 of the 12 instances took the title.

On a seasonal basis, at the end of the Grand Olde day, a two or three 20-game winning staff happened about half the time—so, really, it’s hard to say it was particularly uncommon in those days, which is probably not that surprising to anyone paying attention.

And, in fact, after the modern-day reboot, you saw it happening again:
  • Las Vegas: 1997 (Christopher Stoller, Michael Shellenbarger, Johnny Madorin)
  • Madison: 1998 (Robert Wilson, Chet Stedman)
Both these teams won their divisions, but neither made it to the Landis series.

Regardless of that, however, the fact is that staffs with two 2-game winners happened two times in the span of 1995-1999, roughly half the seasons. No great difference from before, it would appear. But then the game began to change. Talent shifts? Usage patterns? Modifications in the raw elements of the game? Whatever…it was six seasons until the next occurrence. After that, though, came four occurrences in five years…so on the whole, we’re kind of back on track.
  • Vancouver: 2005 (Robbie Sargent, Shane Wookey)
  • Jacksonville: 2007 (David Schuster, Mack Milholm)
  • Las Vegas: 2008 (Christopher Stoller, Kim Rodas)
  • Las Vegas: 2009 (Davey Acheson, Kim Rodas)
The 2008 Vegas team won the Landis, and their 2009 team and Jacksonville’s 2007 team (in Greenville) made it to the Landis series. Vancouver won their division, but did not progress through the brackets. So, if you’re looking for post-season indicators here, I suppose it’s a mixed bag, leaning toward the positive.

Then, of course, came another 4-season drought until:
  • New Orleans: 2013 (Jimmy McCabe, Albert Martinez)
The Crawdads won their division, but did not take the Landis.

And then a 13-season gap to:
  • Mexico City: 2026 (Enrique Gomez, Atsumori Maeda)
And that’s where we are today. It has been 14 seasons since the last time two pitchers on the same staff threw 20-win seasons—the longest stint in league history. I should note, I suppose, that while Mexico City’s team (then in Omaha) won 96 games, did not actually win their division.


So, what does this tell us?

I don’t know, but it’s been fun to look at. One of the best things about this place is how deep the rabbit hole goes, and the fact is I've only been here for, what, 16 seasons. Looking at this stuff may bring back warm memories for some, but for me it's still a learning thing.

Beyond that, I should say that I figure it’s unlikely that both Valle and Ramos will make it to 20. It’s possible, of course. They should both get 10 or 11 starts, and given the team’s bats it’s certainly possible they could both win six more games. But the odds are against. And beyond that, if past history is an indicator, even if they make it the odds don’t seem particularly swayed in a direction that says the team’s chances in the post season are any better because of it.

Still, I’ll be rooting for them to make it. Of course I will. I don’t as a general rule do much to fiddle with player’s stat outputs, especially as the post season looms. I tend to sit guys a bit more, and keep them safe. But I’ll admit that if the two are a game way in the last week of the season, it’ll be hard to avoid the temptation to see if we can’t manage to sneak in that last number this time.

That said, given the close but no cigar finish I expect, I figured I had to write this now, because if they don't make it, well...where's the fun in that, right?

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Re: YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by CTBrewCrew » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:57 pm

What was the rotation sizes when there were 4 or 3 20 game winners? 4 man? I’m wondering if you looked at the stamina of all those 20 game winners what it’s value would be?
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Re: YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by bschr682 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:01 pm

2 things. 1. My long reliever has 13 wins hah and 2. It’s Shane Wookey.
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Re: YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by 7teen » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:32 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:01 pm
2 things. 1. My long reliever has 13 wins hah and 2. It’s Shane Wookey.
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Re: YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by recte44 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:43 pm

Amazing that Stoller and Acheson never did it together.

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Re: YS9 Hurlers Shoot for Historic 20/20

Post by RonCo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:55 pm

bschr682 wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:01 pm
2 things. 1. My long reliever has 13 wins hah and 2. It’s Shane Wookey.
Oops...
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