2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:07 pm
Off Topic
Given that this Feature is about teams rather than many actual players, I'm not going to expend the energy to link every player. For my brazen flaunting of the rules, I'll assess myself a 2-point penalty in the process of accounting its points.
So, instead of focusing on what teams picked which players, let’s look at it from the direction of which teams lost players, and when they lost them.
Some theory here might say that teams who lost players early were, perhaps deeper and stronger than teams who lost them late. This idea would be that these would be indicators of teams on the rise—maybe. Or, maybe just that they were teams with more resources available, and that losing players early might mean runs could be stunted. It could mean that teams that lost players late in the process were merely exposing dross, and that they’ve got a bathtub curve of an organization—strong in the protected list, and strong in the low minors, but with nothing much in the middle.
You’d have to look at each team to really know what this means to them. I’ll do that with a few examples, and leave the rest to you or others to make notes on.
Still, it’s interesting to look at.
Here’s a breakdown of what teams lost what players, and when they lost them.
Team | Div | PL 1 | PL 2 | PL 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago | FLH | 9.2 - Jaime Geerdinkck | 17.2 0 Albert Ayala | 20.1 - C.J. Ischade |
Des Moines | FLH | 7.1 - Norberto Asconcio | 11.1 - Sabir Askeri | 19.1 - Ghi-cheng Kum |
Louisville | FLH | 28.1 - Víctor Elizondo | 36.2 - Jaime Ramírez | 39.2 - Jesús Carberial |
Madison | FLH | 22.2 - Steve Dempsey | 42.2 - Jon Mick | 43.1 - Sixto Maldonado |
Nashville | FLH | 21.2 - Arturo Ornelas | 29.2 - Lorenzo Torres | 34.1 - Paul Jones |
Omaha | FLH | 27.1 - Dan Clapper | 33.1 - Manuel Orozco | 42.1 - Ken Spencer |
Twin Cities | FLH | 22.1 - Wes Savage | 28.2 - Tucker York III | 36.1 - Florian Rudhart |
Yellow Springs | FLH | 3.2 - Juan Guerro | 7.2 - Adergazoz Ouakili | 8.2 - Pat Allen |
Team | Div | PL 1 | PL 2 | PL 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
California | FLP | 6.1 - Luis Alvarez | 9.1 - Hedde Veenman | 26.1 - Chris Thomas |
Hawaii | FLP | 17.1 - Masaaki Adachi | 37.1 - Francisco Cortéz | 41.2 - Alfonso Castro |
Long Beach | FLP | 25.2 - Pepe Rocha | 43.2 - Bastian Lino | 44.1 - Roy Dickerson |
Portland | FLP | x | x | x |
San Fernando | FLP | 33.2 Jorge Baez | 40.1 - Jack Jones | 45.1 - Ernie Kinney |
Seattle | FLP | 14.2 - António Cruz | 18.1 - Freddy Ayala | 20.2 - Kunimichi Jouon |
Valencia | FLP | 12.1 - Miguel Pacheco | 18.2 - Luis Ortega | 41.1 - Cisco Crespo |
Vancouver | FLP | 13.1 - Richard Wishart | 16.2 - Flynn Venegas | 19.2 - Luis Cruz |
Team | Div | PL 1 | PL 2 | PL 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Atlantic City | JLA | 4.2 - Andres Georges | 31.1 - Júlio Alicea | 32.2 - Celio Marin |
Brooklyn | JLA | 4.1 - Jose Harrera | 10.2 - Bing-zhang Kim | 21.1 - Scotts Joe |
Charlotte | JLA | x | x | x |
Charm City | JLA | 5.2 - Jesus Arce | 14.1 - Fernando Rodríguez | 25.1 - Nikita Schipper |
Jacksonville | JLA | 30.2 - Zhi-xin Chien | 34.2 - Jonathon O'Reilly | 35.2 - Luis Pérez |
Montreal | JLA | 26.2 - Eduardo Reyes | 38.1 - Gabriel Flores | 44.2 - Nelson Crtima |
New Orleans | JLA | 1.1 - Hank Brewer | 5.1 - Joe Whitaker | 15.1 - Jason Morris |
Rockville | JLA | 2.2 - Lee Morgan | 23.1 - Shuji Kokawa | 37.2 - Larry Blake |
Team | Div | PL 1 | PL 2 | PL 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Boise | JLF | 12.2 - Timofei Bakitski | 31.2 - Egbert Behner | 32.1 - Maxence Mace |
Calgary | JLF | 3.1 - Rodrigo Gallegos | 10.1 - Sean Gardner | 16.1 - Brandon Acevedo |
Edmonton | JLF | 1.2 - Keijo Reini | 13.2 - Derrek Terry | 27.2 - Mike Gilbert |
Las Vegas | JLF | 8.1 - Sancho Castillo | 23.2 - Poto Tornatore | 24.1 - Glen Clinch |
Mexico City | JLF | 15.2 - Juan Valverde | 29.1 - Feitze Aalbers | 30.1 - José Alba |
Phoenix | JLF | 2.1 - Jafar Hamid | 24.2 - Vincente Venalde | 39.1 - Vicente Díaz |
San Antonio | JLF | 6.2 - Marcelo Polar | 11.2 - Dax Norris | 35.1 - Manuel Núñez |
Wichita | JLF | 38.2 - Gustavo Ledezma | 40.2 - Tony Cabrera | 45.2 - Jeff Kirk |
Given depth of organizations in the past, it’s probably not a surprise that Yellow Springs (round 8), New Orleans (round 15), and Calgary (round 16) were the first three out. It’s of more interest to note that the next three were Des Moines (19), Chicago (19), and Vancouver (20).
Des Moines in particular is an interesting case. They lost three young pitchers—all going to Portland. Asconsio and Askeria being prospects of the fashionable “no movement” type Chris Wilson seems to gravitate toward, and Chi-cheng Kum, at 24, having already made a bit of an impact at the major league level. Given the youth of their pitching, the Kernels have been a team I’ve said we should watch out for. Do these losses change that? No, not really. Or, if so, only a little. I think Asconsio and Askeria could well bump, which would have added fuel to Des Moines’ fire, but I don’t think they were in the core plan. Kum, however, could well be a loss. I’m not sure he was ever going to carry a big bucket when it came to the rotation, but I could have seen him as a valuable part of the bullpen for a few years while making spot-starts or filling in for injuries.
Vancouver also lost three players to Portland, including a pair of young arms in Flynn Venegas and Cisco Crespo that might hurt a little. I’d guess the loss of Richard Wishart was somewhat by design. At 1B, he’s probably not really in the Vancouver window, anyway. But both Venegas and Crespo could provide some value in the Mountie time frame. The mere fact that they were available says something about the depth of this team’s farm system—a system that I’ve been watching, and detailed in a series of minor league posts last year. The front office got only 19 safety chips, and someone had to be left open. I suspect Vancouver’s rebuild will proceed successfully after these losses, but they do take away a little momentum. The more chips, the better, after all.
And then there comes Chicago, who I think is a sleeper in the making. Stever left the current administration with some good players, after all, and now the Chicago front office is adjusting them to a bit of a different style of play. The loss of 3B Albert Ayala probably won’t impact them too much, but CJ Ischade could work as a decent Loogy, and 20 year-old RF Jaime Geerdinkck has the looks of a guy who can help a good team. At question is whether he was available due to depth, or due to the fact that he doesn’t fit the new system (he’s a Stever kind of guy as a LHB with big splits). Or both. Regardless, I could see that loss requiring a retooling of the plans.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN
It is of some interest that Jacksonville, the defending Landis champion, did not lose a player until l round 30. Similarly, San Fernando—a perennial contender—was unbloodied until round 33. The only team that went longer was The Genius’s Wichita club, who didn’t lose a player until the 38th round.
Both Jacksonville and San Fernando’s front offices have been in the mode of trading future value for current value for some time, so this position probably does represent a view of the clubs’ systemic depth, the Bears perhaps more so than the Hurricanes. While San Fernando arguably lost no one of impact to their plans, Jacksonville lost Zhi-xin Chen to Portland (later traded to Vegas) after being left unprotected for what I would assume were financial considerations. He’s a solid pitcher, though. His loss will have to hurt.
Wichita’s case is one that suggests that bathtub curve of value I mentioned before. The Aviators made a series of now for later deals last off-season, and most of their prospect value is too young to put forward. So they protected players mostly on their major league roster.
OTHER INTERESTING PATTERNS
A few other teams that had interesting patterns in their draft process were Phoenix, who lost Jafar Hamid in the second round, then didn’t lose another until round 24 and then 39. Likewise Rockville, who coughed up Lee Morgan in the second round, then sat on the sidelines until round 23 and then 37.
So, yeah, these things are interesting and fun, and make me ask lots of silly and esoteric questions. In the end, though, maybe they matter and maybe they don’t. Bottom line is that the event is over, though, and now it’s time to focus on free agents, Rule 5, and that path to the Winter Meetings!