2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

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2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by RonCo » Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:07 pm

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Given that this Feature is about teams rather than many actual players, I'm not going to expend the energy to link every player. :) For my brazen flaunting of the rules, I'll assess myself a 2-point penalty in the process of accounting its points.
The highly anticipated expansion draft has now come and gone, meaning the only thing left to do is to pick up the pieces and see what happened. Of course, in real terms, that’s not really possible. Like all future-forward things, there are more twists and turns to go, trades to process, injuries and development to happen. If past history is to tell us anything, int’s that expansion processes are almost impossible to assess for a few years on.

So, instead of focusing on what teams picked which players, let’s look at it from the direction of which teams lost players, and when they lost them.

Some theory here might say that teams who lost players early were, perhaps deeper and stronger than teams who lost them late. This idea would be that these would be indicators of teams on the rise—maybe. Or, maybe just that they were teams with more resources available, and that losing players early might mean runs could be stunted. It could mean that teams that lost players late in the process were merely exposing dross, and that they’ve got a bathtub curve of an organization—strong in the protected list, and strong in the low minors, but with nothing much in the middle.

You’d have to look at each team to really know what this means to them. I’ll do that with a few examples, and leave the rest to you or others to make notes on.

Still, it’s interesting to look at.

Here’s a breakdown of what teams lost what players, and when they lost them.

TeamDivPL 1PL 2PL 3
ChicagoFLH9.2 - Jaime Geerdinkck17.2 0 Albert Ayala20.1 - C.J. Ischade
Des MoinesFLH7.1 - Norberto Asconcio11.1 - Sabir Askeri19.1 - Ghi-cheng Kum
LouisvilleFLH28.1 - Víctor Elizondo36.2 - Jaime Ramírez39.2 - Jesús Carberial
MadisonFLH22.2 - Steve Dempsey42.2 - Jon Mick43.1 - Sixto Maldonado
NashvilleFLH21.2 - Arturo Ornelas29.2 - Lorenzo Torres34.1 - Paul Jones
OmahaFLH27.1 - Dan Clapper33.1 - Manuel Orozco42.1 - Ken Spencer
Twin CitiesFLH22.1 - Wes Savage28.2 - Tucker York III36.1 - Florian Rudhart
Yellow SpringsFLH3.2 - Juan Guerro7.2 - Adergazoz Ouakili8.2 - Pat Allen
TeamDivPL 1PL 2PL 3
CaliforniaFLP6.1 - Luis Alvarez9.1 - Hedde Veenman26.1 - Chris Thomas
HawaiiFLP17.1 - Masaaki Adachi37.1 - Francisco Cortéz41.2 - Alfonso Castro
Long BeachFLP25.2 - Pepe Rocha43.2 - Bastian Lino44.1 - Roy Dickerson
PortlandFLPxxx
San FernandoFLP33.2 Jorge Baez40.1 - Jack Jones45.1 - Ernie Kinney
SeattleFLP14.2 - António Cruz18.1 - Freddy Ayala20.2 - Kunimichi Jouon
ValenciaFLP12.1 - Miguel Pacheco18.2 - Luis Ortega41.1 - Cisco Crespo
VancouverFLP13.1 - Richard Wishart16.2 - Flynn Venegas19.2 - Luis Cruz
TeamDivPL 1PL 2PL 3
Atlantic CityJLA4.2 - Andres Georges31.1 - Júlio Alicea32.2 - Celio Marin
BrooklynJLA4.1 - Jose Harrera10.2 - Bing-zhang Kim21.1 - Scotts Joe
CharlotteJLAxxx
Charm CityJLA5.2 - Jesus Arce14.1 - Fernando Rodríguez25.1 - Nikita Schipper
JacksonvilleJLA30.2 - Zhi-xin Chien34.2 - Jonathon O'Reilly35.2 - Luis Pérez
MontrealJLA26.2 - Eduardo Reyes38.1 - Gabriel Flores44.2 - Nelson Crtima
New OrleansJLA1.1 - Hank Brewer5.1 - Joe Whitaker15.1 - Jason Morris
RockvilleJLA2.2 - Lee Morgan23.1 - Shuji Kokawa37.2 - Larry Blake
TeamDivPL 1PL 2PL 3
BoiseJLF12.2 - Timofei Bakitski31.2 - Egbert Behner32.1 - Maxence Mace
CalgaryJLF3.1 - Rodrigo Gallegos10.1 - Sean Gardner16.1 - Brandon Acevedo
EdmontonJLF1.2 - Keijo Reini13.2 - Derrek Terry27.2 - Mike Gilbert
Las VegasJLF8.1 - Sancho Castillo23.2 - Poto Tornatore24.1 - Glen Clinch
Mexico CityJLF15.2 - Juan Valverde29.1 - Feitze Aalbers30.1 - José Alba
PhoenixJLF2.1 - Jafar Hamid24.2 - Vincente Venalde39.1 - Vicente Díaz
San AntonioJLF6.2 - Marcelo Polar11.2 - Dax Norris35.1 - Manuel Núñez
WichitaJLF38.2 - Gustavo Ledezma40.2 - Tony Cabrera45.2 - Jeff Kirk

Given depth of organizations in the past, it’s probably not a surprise that Yellow Springs (round 8), New Orleans (round 15), and Calgary (round 16) were the first three out. It’s of more interest to note that the next three were Des Moines (19), Chicago (19), and Vancouver (20).

Des Moines in particular is an interesting case. They lost three young pitchers—all going to Portland. Asconsio and Askeria being prospects of the fashionable “no movement” type Chris Wilson seems to gravitate toward, and Chi-cheng Kum, at 24, having already made a bit of an impact at the major league level. Given the youth of their pitching, the Kernels have been a team I’ve said we should watch out for. Do these losses change that? No, not really. Or, if so, only a little. I think Asconsio and Askeria could well bump, which would have added fuel to Des Moines’ fire, but I don’t think they were in the core plan. Kum, however, could well be a loss. I’m not sure he was ever going to carry a big bucket when it came to the rotation, but I could have seen him as a valuable part of the bullpen for a few years while making spot-starts or filling in for injuries.

Vancouver also lost three players to Portland, including a pair of young arms in Flynn Venegas and Cisco Crespo that might hurt a little. I’d guess the loss of Richard Wishart was somewhat by design. At 1B, he’s probably not really in the Vancouver window, anyway. But both Venegas and Crespo could provide some value in the Mountie time frame. The mere fact that they were available says something about the depth of this team’s farm system—a system that I’ve been watching, and detailed in a series of minor league posts last year. The front office got only 19 safety chips, and someone had to be left open. I suspect Vancouver’s rebuild will proceed successfully after these losses, but they do take away a little momentum. The more chips, the better, after all.

And then there comes Chicago, who I think is a sleeper in the making. Stever left the current administration with some good players, after all, and now the Chicago front office is adjusting them to a bit of a different style of play. The loss of 3B Albert Ayala probably won’t impact them too much, but CJ Ischade could work as a decent Loogy, and 20 year-old RF Jaime Geerdinkck has the looks of a guy who can help a good team. At question is whether he was available due to depth, or due to the fact that he doesn’t fit the new system (he’s a Stever kind of guy as a LHB with big splits). Or both. Regardless, I could see that loss requiring a retooling of the plans.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN

It is of some interest that Jacksonville, the defending Landis champion, did not lose a player until l round 30. Similarly, San Fernando—a perennial contender—was unbloodied until round 33. The only team that went longer was The Genius’s Wichita club, who didn’t lose a player until the 38th round.

Both Jacksonville and San Fernando’s front offices have been in the mode of trading future value for current value for some time, so this position probably does represent a view of the clubs’ systemic depth, the Bears perhaps more so than the Hurricanes. While San Fernando arguably lost no one of impact to their plans, Jacksonville lost Zhi-xin Chen to Portland (later traded to Vegas) after being left unprotected for what I would assume were financial considerations. He’s a solid pitcher, though. His loss will have to hurt.

Wichita’s case is one that suggests that bathtub curve of value I mentioned before. The Aviators made a series of now for later deals last off-season, and most of their prospect value is too young to put forward. So they protected players mostly on their major league roster.


OTHER INTERESTING PATTERNS

A few other teams that had interesting patterns in their draft process were Phoenix, who lost Jafar Hamid in the second round, then didn’t lose another until round 24 and then 39. Likewise Rockville, who coughed up Lee Morgan in the second round, then sat on the sidelines until round 23 and then 37.

So, yeah, these things are interesting and fun, and make me ask lots of silly and esoteric questions. In the end, though, maybe they matter and maybe they don’t. Bottom line is that the event is over, though, and now it’s time to focus on free agents, Rule 5, and that path to the Winter Meetings!
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by bcslouck » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:03 pm

Should of protected one of those SS's over one of the last corner OF'ers I protected. :shrug: Can't believe some of the names not protected though.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by JimBob2232 » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:22 pm

I honestly didn’t think 3 of my oldest players would go in the draft. Brewer is 34, Morris is 35, and Whittaker is 30. And none of them are signed beyond next season.

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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by indiansfan » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:31 pm

I figured I’d lose Gallegos. He was the 20th guy on my list. Gardner was going to get converted, would recommend that for his future. Actually glad that the picks didn’t create any holes I need to fill.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by JimBob2232 » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

indiansfan wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:31 pm
I figured I’d lose Gallegos. He was the 20th guy on my list. Gardner was going to get converted, would recommend that for his future. Actually glad that the picks didn’t create any holes I need to fill.
I was worried about my farm system. Glad to see the guys picked who were picked.

Leaves me about 60M in FA. Too bad the fa crop isn’t great.

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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by RonCo » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:45 pm

I'll admit I'm going to have to do some juggling to deal with the losses, but I'm wondering if it will be for the best anyway. I held my breath putting Guerrero into my plans, and though I loved Ouakili, he's a Stuff drop away from losing his primary asset. I understand why Pat Allen was selected, but I'd have probably gone other directions if I were taking guys. Probably shows my own biases as much as anything.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by shoeless.db » Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:48 pm

I came to terms before the draft of losing Alverez and Veenman, but I thought I’d lose one of my available relievers. I’m disappointed I lost Thomas. I was hoping he’d sneak through.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by Edward Murphy » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:29 pm

was surprise how early in the draft my 3 players were taken.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by ae37jr » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:36 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:45 pm
I understand why Pat Allen was selected, but I'd have probably gone other directions if I were taking guys. Probably shows my own biases as much as anything.
Allen was a prearranged trade. I wanted to add a captain that also filled a role on the team. My shortside dh was open and Allen seemed like a good fit. George's as a halfway decent, not crazy expensive SP who is a captain also was a great fit.

That trade was not great per say, but I mostly have up depth and it saves me the temptation of bidding on a declining Lafitte. Cause he was the only free agent captain I liked. Now I can drop the ole moneybomb on something else.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by RonCo » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:55 pm

ae37jr wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:36 pm
RonCo wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:45 pm
I understand why Pat Allen was selected, but I'd have probably gone other directions if I were taking guys. Probably shows my own biases as much as anything.
Allen was a prearranged trade. I wanted to add a captain that also filled a role on the team. My shortside dh was open and Allen seemed like a good fit. George's as a halfway decent, not crazy expensive SP who is a captain also was a great fit.

That trade was not great per say, but I mostly have up depth and it saves me the temptation of bidding on a declining Lafitte. Cause he was the only free agent captain I liked. Now I can drop the ole moneybomb on something else.
You've identified Allen's role perfectly. My personal issue with him is that I've given him small sample size opportunities and had him not succeed. I'l fairly sure that with a full season in role, he'll be workable.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by ae37jr » Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:22 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:55 pm

You've identified Allen's role perfectly. My personal issue with him is that I've given him small sample size opportunities and had him not succeed. I'l fairly sure that with a full season in role, he'll be workable.
Yeah, I scouted him enough to not get excited. His contact has got to be a low 8 against lefties. As long as he can play above replacement level, I'm fine with that. And he may not even play that much depending on how my lefty bats hold up. His main role is to rally the troops and help teach the young kids
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by 7teen » Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:22 pm

I’ll say, as someone drafting, it got hectic quick. I (and I think Brett too) lost track pretty quick on who came off the board from what teams. I was taking guys I had identified as either possible prospects, or guys I had some pre-arranged trades for.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by StormZ_23 » Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:01 pm

Losing Wishart is no big deal. Kinda sucks to lose Venegas and Crespo but I didn't see too much upside in them.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by usnspecialist » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:07 am

I was hoping someone would grab kinney, didn't really care who else went.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by GoldenOne » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:44 am

7teen wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:22 pm
I’ll say, as someone drafting, it got hectic quick. I (and I think Brett too) lost track pretty quick on who came off the board from what teams. I was taking guys I had identified as either possible prospects, or guys I had some pre-arranged trades for.
Agreed. Somewhere around round 30 or so it got tough to track things and players and, other than Behner, it became taking cheap, young guys that might have some sort of role. I was doing okay remembering the teams I had taken from but there wasnt much time to pay attention to who Chris was taking and still give thought to who I wanted to take. Pitching is always a priority so when in doubt, throw a few extra in there and maybe one will stick.
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Re: 2039 Expansion Draft: An Overview

Post by udlb58 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:23 pm

I only left Chien exposed because I was deathly afraid of his stamina dropping to a point where he's no longer able to even go 5 innings as a starter.
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