2039-40 Player Options: A Serial
Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:00 pm
After Ted’s great 4-part process back a couple years ago, I thought I’d revisit the overall cycle of players who had options, highlight what decisions they made, and discuss a bit about the validity of those decisions. As GMs, I figure it’s always interesting and valuable to see how our players are looking at things. I mean, for years and years I’ve heard GMs all over the place say “players always opt-out,” for example. And maybe that was true at one point. But it doesn’t seem true now...so, how true is it? How good of decisions are players making?
First, let’s go revisit the 2037 time period.
A Look at 2037-2038
To summarize Ted’s findings (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4), of 2037’s class of 18 players:
In this case, a “Good” decision is one that resulted in coming through the Free Agency period in a better situation than they would have been in if they’d chosen a different path. This is, of course, subjective—which is one reason I liked Ted’s Wisdom of the Crowds approach.
Bottom line: Either 13 or 14 players of 17 (discounting Sandcastle’s retirement) made decisions that wound up helping them. So (sample size be damned) that says players, on the whole, seemed pretty smart.
All right, let’s dig into what’s going on today.
2039: An Overview
This season sees a total of 24 players with player options. These range from big-ticket players with salaries upward of $25M, so guys with relative chicken feed to compare.
Here’s the list:
I note here that none of this data includes the buy-outs associated with Team Options or any bonuses included on their contracts. I'll try to note them in places that seem relevant.
My plan here will be to break these players down at the time they make decisions that bring their process to an end. So, the first major post after this one will be those who decide to opt-in and stay with their teams. If I get a chance, the second will be focused on asking prices of players who opted out. The third will be a look at deals players who opted out received…and the final bit will be an attempt at a summary. If that sounds a lot like Ted’s, well, that’s on purpose.
Anyway…hang on…I’ll be back in a second to look at players who Opted-in
First, let’s go revisit the 2037 time period.
A Look at 2037-2038
To summarize Ted’s findings (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4), of 2037’s class of 18 players:
- Good Decisions: 12 *
- Push Decisions: 2
- Bad Decisions: 3
- Retired: 1
In this case, a “Good” decision is one that resulted in coming through the Free Agency period in a better situation than they would have been in if they’d chosen a different path. This is, of course, subjective—which is one reason I liked Ted’s Wisdom of the Crowds approach.
Bottom line: Either 13 or 14 players of 17 (discounting Sandcastle’s retirement) made decisions that wound up helping them. So (sample size be damned) that says players, on the whole, seemed pretty smart.
All right, let’s dig into what’s going on today.
2039: An Overview
This season sees a total of 24 players with player options. These range from big-ticket players with salaries upward of $25M, so guys with relative chicken feed to compare.
Here’s the list:
POS | Player | Team | Age | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RF | Alfredo Martínez | LOU | 34 | $31.3m(O) | $25.3m | $37.3m(V) | $37.3m(V) | |
SP | Mauro Flores | LV | 33 | $25.5m(O) | $25.5m | $25.5m(V) | $25.5m(V) | |
3B | Carlton Winson | CCJ | 36 | $24.5m(O) | $18.0m | $18.0m | ||
SP | Cristóbal Hernández | CLG | 33 | $22.0m(O) | $22.0m | $21.0m | $18.5m(P) | |
1B | Jon Mick | MAD | 34 | $20.0m(O) | $20.0m | $20.0m | ||
3B | Jesús Gonzáles | SA | 34 | $20.0m | $18.0m(P) | |||
C | Shag Hopkins | LOU | 33 | $17.0m(O) | $17.0m(V) | $16.0m(T) | ||
C | Luis Barrera | CCJ | 31 | $16.0m(O) | $16.0m(T) | |||
RF | Steve Dempsey | MAD | 33 | $15.2m | $15.2m(P) | |||
SS | Mark Wareham | TWC | 31 | $14.0m(O) | $14m | $14m | $14m(P) | |
RF | Mario Balderas | BRK | 37 | $12.5m | $12.5m(P) | $12.5m(P) | ||
C | António Tobías | SA | 32 | $8.0m(O) | $12.0m | $15.0m(P) | ||
3B | Gerardo Guzmán | DM | 33 | $8.0m(O) | $11.0m | $9.5m | $8.5m(T) | $8.5m(P) |
RP | Celio Marin | ATC | 31 | $10.0m(O) | $8.0m | $8.0m | $8.0m(T) | |
SS | Lloyd Braun | ATC | 33 | $11.0m(O) | $8.0m | $8.0m | $7.0m(V) | $6.0m(V) |
CF | Willard Gagne | NO | 28 | $8.4m | $7.5m (P) | $10m(T) | ||
LF | Alvin Dickinson | WIC | 29 | $6.0m | $6.0m(P) | |||
RP | Chris Adkins | MNT | 36 | $6.0m | $6.0m(P) | |||
RF | Jean-Luc Lacaze | CCJ | 33 | $5.0m(O) | $5m(T) | |||
1B | Albert Gaona | TWC | 31 | $5.0m(O) | $5.5m | $5.5m | $5.0m(T) | $5.0m(P) |
2B | Carlos García | BRK | 33 | $2.2m(O) | $5.2m | |||
SP | Netuno Merkert | TWC | 27 | $1.96m | $2.96m(P) | |||
LF | Víctor Guerra | TWC | 33 | $3.6m | $2.6m(P) | |||
RP | Wayne Muirhead | CCJ | 27 | $2.0m(O) | $2.0m(T) |
My plan here will be to break these players down at the time they make decisions that bring their process to an end. So, the first major post after this one will be those who decide to opt-in and stay with their teams. If I get a chance, the second will be focused on asking prices of players who opted out. The third will be a look at deals players who opted out received…and the final bit will be an attempt at a summary. If that sounds a lot like Ted’s, well, that’s on purpose.
Anyway…hang on…I’ll be back in a second to look at players who Opted-in